Act have released their 2023 list. The top 20 are:

1. David Seymour – Epsom (nc)
2. Brooke van Velden – Tāmaki (nc)
3. Nicole McKee – Rongotai (nc)
4. Todd Stephenson – Southland (new)
5. Andrew Hoggard – Rangitikei (new)
6. Karen Chhour – Upper Harbour (+1)
7. Mark Cameron – Northland (+1)
8. Simon Court – Te Atatū (-3)
9. Parmjeet Parmar – Pakuranga (new)
10. Laura Trask – Banks Peninsula (new)
11. Cameron Luxton – Bay of Plenty (+4)
12. Antonia Modkova – Panmure-Ōtāhuhu (new)
13. Ash Parmar – Hamilton East (new)
14. Toni Severin – Christchurch East (-5)
15. Ben Harvey – Selwyn (new)
16. Rob Douglas – Tukituki (new)
17. Chris Baillie – Nelson (-13)
18. Christine Young – Tauranga (new)
19. Zane Cozens – Taupō (new)
20. Leo Foley – Northcote (new)

This is quite a brutal list ranking for incumbents. Two MPs were not ranked highly enough to accept the list places offered. Two others were demoted to outside the top 10, where they may get back in, but are not guaranteed.

But that is not all. Normally you would see people who just missed out last time, get potentially winnable places. But of those ranked No 11 – 20 in 2020, just one (Cameron Luxton) has been given a top 20 ranking.

If they get the same seats as last time, four MPs will be candidates who didn’t stand in 2020. And if they get 20 MPs, 11 of them will be new ACT candidates.

They have obviously prioritised the party’s greater needs, over loyalty. All parties have that balancing act to a degree, but rarely have I seen it this stark.

ACT don’t do quotas (rightfully) but they have taken care to have a diverse list. It is relatively youthful. In their top 18, there are eight women and 10 men. By ethnicity there appears to be three Maori NZers, two Indian NZers, one Chinese NZer and 12 European NZers.

If there is a change of Government, and they do a coalition with National, then the top five or six MPs would have a reasonable chance of being Ministers. The four existing MPs have struck me as very capable and the two newcomers of Hoggard and Stephenson are the same. Hoggard is a former Federated Farmers President and I know Todd Stephenson from when we worked in Parliament together.

So overall it looks like a pretty strong team for a future centre-right Government.

Stuff reports:

In a statement released by Hipkins on Friday afternoon, he said “Kiri has had a rough time lately”.

Also in the statement, Allan apologised to “anyone who has found my behaviour towards them unacceptable”. 

“I will also offer that apology personally to anyone who wants to talk to me individually.”

“I want to create a working environment where we set high expectations and work hard to achieve them. But I’ll be working extra hard to make sure those around me know and see how much I appreciate them and value the work they do.”

Allan would receive “extra coaching… to create the positive working environment both of us are committed to”, Hipkins said.

This is the response they should have had three weeks ago. An acknowledgement that things were not right, and some contrition.

Instead they made what was a small issue into a big issue by denying there was a problem. They kept hiding behind the red herring of their being no formal complaints and outright denied there had been any shouting.

NewstalkZB reports:

Questions are being raised over Te Whatu Ora’s honesty regarding health targets. 

Te Whatu Ora says they’re treating 90 percent of cancer patients on time in the southern district, but letters sent out warn of delays.

These letters claim the patients should expect to wait 12 weeks for their first appointment, 8 weeks over the national target.

Cancer care advocate Melissa Vining says DHB management has confirmed Te Whatu Ora is only treating 70 percent of these patients on time. 

Again this is very concerning. Accurate data is one of the most basic functions of Government.

If this keeps up, maybe we will need to have a more independent agency such as Stats NZ publish health data.

Kate Hawkesbury writes:

Another MP facing conflict of interest questions (looking at you Peeni Henare), another MP in meltdown and on leave, another Dairy owner attacked, the (entirely predictable) revelation that government debt was way higher than forecast, the disturbing news of half a billion dollars on almost expired RAT tests being stored in a warehouse exemplifying the very worst of this government’s wastage of our money, more youths on roofs being handed KFC for their troubles, and some more gaslighting by Ministers regards how we’re all feeling.

And that’s pretty much just the last fortnight!

But when asked if the Government’s soft on crime, Police Minster Ginny Andersen said she ‘refuted it’ (straight from the Jacinda playbook). But she can refute it all she wants, she can deny they’re soft on crime, she can claim it’s not a failure of her government, but the facts and the numbers speak for themselves. The evidence daily in our communities speaks for itself. We know how we feel (not safer), we know what’s going on at our local dairies, (increased and more violent crime) we know what’s happening at Police level (fewer arrests, fewer charges) and we know how it all ends up in our justice system (a cultural background report, a slap on the wrist with a wet bus ticket and at best an ankle bracelet).

We just saw a 12 month home detention sentence for assisting in a murder.

I really hope that when this government is finally relieved of its shambolic approach to running our country in October, that they take some time to reflect on what they’ve done here. Leaving behind eye watering levels of debt, a warehouse full of millions of dollars worth of expiring RAT tests, a country divided, record levels of crime and truancy, a health system in tatters… it’s not pretty. For a government that promised to be transformational, honest, open and transparent, they’ve been nothing but a bumbling circus act of failures and waste. I for one, won’t miss them.

I’ve been following politics since 1975, when I was eight. I can’t recall any other Government that would even come close in terms of sheer incompetence. Even if you go back further than 1975, it is hard to find a comparable Government – maybe the Waterhouse Ministry comes close.

Luke Malpass at The Post writes:

The political project begun under Ardern to permanently boost the size of the state to provide more and better public services and to embed a highly progressive taxation system to fund it is dead for the time-being. 

Labour’s aim absolutely has been to permanently boost the size of the state, and they have managed that. But rather than produce better public services, almost every public service has deteriorated.

I was talking to a very good teacher today and he mentioned just how often he hears teachers complain about students they work with (yes probably unionists) – their behaviour, morals, concentration levels … then they give it the “back in my day …”.

Well, I remember “back in my day” and the best description is that my cohort were “brats.”

Around 400BC Socrates wrote:

“The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

It is a common theme of humanity that current generations think they are the peak, have earned it, and that the next have no gratitude and will take the whole ship down.

Children are the same as they have always been. The formula for them to grow into wonderful adults is also the same:

– Unconditional love. When I behaved badly as a child my mother would be telling me off and I would plead – “you don’t love me” her reply was always – “I don’t like you much at the moment but I do love you.” My best teachers were those whose care and belief in me was unwavering.

– Inspiration and a sense of purpose. Children need to know that they are on the planet and a part of the human story for a reason. They need to know about people who are doing remarkable things – including artists, entrepreneurs, change agents for good (past and present), people who work with the poor, doctors & scientists.

– They need to know the great books and reading as an irreplaceable good. I am currently re-reading (maybe the 6th time) – Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams (and through Gary Larson’s – The Complete Far Side. Every sentence, paragraph, page, chapter, book (it is a trilogy in five parts) is a delight. Also worth noting – there never was a bigger gap between a great book as a crap movie than this example. As a teacher of economics, business, math, science … I always read at the start of my class. I never met a child who is not delighted by these stories – even more when they read them for themselves.

Never be put off by a child who says they don’t like reading or a parent who says their son/daughter is “not a reader”. Humans are hard-wired for stories a good teacher/parent gets through the barriers.

Below are the books I read to my children and classes. My children are now wonderful, contributing adults. Looking back I would not change out any of these books.

The Lord of the Rings                                           J. R. R. Tolkien
The Magician’s Nephew                                      C. S. Lewis
The Back of the North Wind                                George MacDonald
….

For the full list go to: alwynpoole.substack.com/p/children-and-young-people-are-as

or email [email protected]

The Herald reports on how the courts are performing five years into this Government:

• Coronial case resolution gone from 49 weeks to 71
• Those waiting more than five years for Coroners Court gone from 15 families to 234
• Those waiting more than three years for Family Court has tripled to 1,165
• Average days to resolve criminal cases in District Court gone from 114 days to 176 days

Another great success!

The Herald reports:

The Government spent $1 million on a campaign thought to have been aimed at boosting school attendance, which it now says was not designed to increase attendance rates.

Rather than spending $1 million on boosting attendance rates, they’re spending $1 million to make us think they are increasing attendance rates!

Stuff reports:

Food price increases are still “worryingly high”, with prices increasing 12.5% annually from June 2022 to June 2023.

Compared to the month of May, food prices increased by 1.6% in June 2023. After adjusting for seasonal effects, they were up 0.9%.

Monthly food inflation used to be around 0.2%. Overall inflation may be dropping but food prices are still increasing as a rate well beyond income.

Stuff reports:

A serial bank robber has gone to jail for his 11th robbery, after targeting a currency exchange in central Wellington.

Why do we keep letting him out? `

The robbery shut down part of Wellington’s busy Lambton Quay on February 8 this year after Steven Kurt Peri​ had demanded money, ending up with about $25,000 in foreign currency, a large amount of it Australian. …

Peri, 43, had gone into the store about 9.17am, pulled a pistol from his waistband and pointed it at the first teller demanding money. She hurried away out the back, so Peri pointed it at a second teller and racked the slide on the pistol.

Peri was previously sentenced in the High Court in Auckland in 2015 to four years and 11 months jail for the aggravated robbery of the Henderson BNZ. The judge then declined to give him preventive detention saying that intensive supervision could help him rehabilitate.

The Judge was wrong.

That 2015 robbery was a second strike offence. If Labour and Greens had not repealed the Three Strikes law, he would have got 14 years for his 11th aggravated robbery, instead of the four and a half years he did get. Thanks to the Government, he will be able to do a 12th aggravated robbery by 2025, rather than 2037.

One News reports:

The health agency published a review of their clinical performance metrics this morning, revealing that compared to 2022, in 11 districts, there was a minimum 10% increase in their emergency department length of stay.

A minimum 10% could mean one district was 10% and 10 others had a 40% increase.

Before Labour’s health reforms we knew exactly how many ED patients were seen within six hours, updated every three months. Now we have no data since June 2022.

One of the most basic functions of Government is to produce reliable and accurate information and data. We’re spending $26 billion on the health system, and we can’t even find out how long people are waiting for in emergency departments.

We have now found out that Labour looked at:

• An asset tax
• A capital gains tax
• A bank tax

They have backed down on them not because they don;’t want to do them, but because they don’t want to go into an election campaigning on them.

But they have an escape route. The Greens have all but said such taxes will be a condition of any coalition agreement.

Can anyone imagine that a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government would reduce the tax burden on the economy, rather than increase it?

Bruce Cotterill writes:

Some of the misleading lines are now famous. Remember “we’re at the front of the queue for vaccines”? We weren’t. Or that “he was advised on six occasions to sell his shares”? Turns out it there were 16 messages about the shares. Notwithstanding the mystery text message, the current one goes, “there have never been any formal allegations put to me”.

All good examples.

The former PM had the audacity to refer to her Government as the “single source of the truth” during the pandemic. It wasn’t. Her Government was also assembling a document named He Puapua, the existence of which was kept from their then coalition partner, and also from the voting public. Its existence and content only became apparent after the election was safely in the bag.

My bet is that the same thing is happening again. Once high-profile ministers have been sent to the back room, where I expect they’re working on the next raid on our values and our wallets. Their work will only become visible if another election victory is delivered.

Yep, everything on hold, will come off hold, and be rammed into law as quickly as possible.

The Herald reports:

A teen prospect involved in a gang-related murder assured the court he was cutting ties with the Mongrel Mob, but after his calls to a jailed gang boss were intercepted, it was discovered he has instead been patched, complete with the gang’s insignia tattooed on his back.

This is no surprise. They all get told to tell the court how they are remorseful and want to turn their lives around, but most of them don’t want to.

He is the younger brother of Mongrel Mob West Coast chapter president Turanganui Ormsby-Turner, who was jailed in May for life with a minimum period of imprisonment of 10 years and six months for murdering Rei Joseph Tumatauinga Maihi Marshall.

Tana was originally also charged with the murder of Marshall, a 23-year-old Taranaki father of two, but went on to plead guilty to reduced charges of being an accessory after the fact and wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm.

So he did a plea deal to avoid being charged with murder, but still admitted to two very serious offences that have maximum terms of 14 and seven years.

From a starting point of seven years’ imprisonment, Justice Francis Cooke applied around 70 per cent in discounts before sentencing the teen to 12 months of home detention.

If National becomes Government, this would not happen. They have said 40% will be the maximum discount available which would mean a sentence of at least four years imprisonment for helping murder someone, instead of 12 months cruising at home.

He believed Tana still had a chance of being rehabilitated but said that could not be achieved in prison.

LOL. Sure.

The Herald reports:

New data obtained by the Herald shows it is going to take Auckland Transport up to a decade to clear the backlog of local road repairs, which currently sits at around 1000 kilometres.

The backlog is caused by funding issues, according to the Auckland Transport Alignment Project update. The report said it would take five to 10 years to clear the backlog.

The funding issue is Labour takes billions off motorists, and instead of spending it on roads, they try to spend it on anything else they can dream up.

Modern science is a beautiful area of learning and professional pathway that was established in the Middle Ages and greatly enhanced by the development of instruments such and the telescope, microscope and others – through their enhancement of the observation ability of human senses.

A key feature of modern science is that it has: objectivity, ethical neutrality, reliability.

The “scientific method” is key: observation, background research, hypothesis, experiment, data analysis, report conclusions.

Everyone acts “scientifically” every day (I even watch my cat do it with water in the hand basin). A child can observe a red element, wonder why it is that colour, hypothesise “hot”, place a hand near (or even touch), analyse the data and conclude (possible with tears).

No one becomes a good scientist without learning the basics very thoroughly – including the history of the disciplines. Key to this are the convenient divisions of Chemistry, Biology, Physics and Mathematics. Many of the important aspects are wonderful developments in the history of humanity – including the deeply fascinating – when well taught – Periodic Table of Elements.

In true science there are no facts – only theories that have not been disproven yet. This is often hard for people to understand as we are often coerced into seeing conclusions as “facts” or “settled science” and scientists as deeply reliable people. The truth is that if a “scientist” is calling his/her finding factual they are out of line with their disciplines.

Human beliefs/faiths are important and there has been much controversy over the years when people have asserted that there is a conflict between belief systems and science. They are two different things and many great scientists have been, for instance, Christians, who understood that. For something to be “scientific” it MUST be open to being refuted.

There is also a significant difference between a scientist and an activist. A person can do both, but they should clearly understand, and communicate, which role they are playing at any time.

I have taught Science (including Mathematics) in NZ schools for 20 years to middle school children (10 – 15 years of age). I have loved doing it and the vast majority of students have very much enjoyed the learning, with many moving into fields of science through tertiary pathways.

This NZ Herald “Opinion Piece” by Sara Tolbert from the University of Canterbury would be the single worst piece of writing on the topic I have read in the last 10 years. This person is involved in teacher education and is exactly the type that should not be. She gives herself away early by using the phrase “scientific facts” of which there are none. That she states; “Decades of research have shown that school science that focuses predominantly on decontextualised scientific facts and theories has not supported student learning.” with no reference or possible alternative reasons for why school science teaching is failing – e.g. underqualified teachers – is very poor thinking.

If Tolbert is a scientist she ought also to know that alternate knowledge systems can only be included as “science” if they are open to experimentation and refutation. It is clear she is an activist and not acting as a scientist.

Learning science is important and like any great discipline from academics, the arts, music, sports – you must learn the foundations of the subject and then apply them in an accurate way to contexts. Tolbert writes as an idealogue who appears to have lost her foundations. She acknowledges that New Zealand education in science is lacking compared to many countries but fails to state the obvious reasons as to why and those countries that are leading the way would go nowhere near the style of the NZ draft Science Curriculum.

She states that some schools are leading the way. I can assure people that the schools that are leading the way in science (and will continue to do so) are those that teach foundation Science, Chemistry, Physics, Biology, Earth Sciences and Astronomy completely faithful to the scientific method and the great developments. Those schools will completely reject what Tolbert is supporting and will continue placing young people into tertiary study best equipped in the foundations of the subject. Those who follow the proposal that Tolbert supports will place students on a pathway to further academic failure and, most certainly, no prospects outside of New Zealand in any study or professions connected to genuine science.

There is also an excellent piece on this behind Newsrooms paywall by Michael Johnstone who knows a thing or two and is reasonably eloquent: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-reading-wars-lessons-for-teaching-science

As I have stated before students, of all ages (and Sara Tolbert), in New Zealand could do no better that to start with Bill Bryson’s remarkable: A Short History of Nearly Everything.

​Alwyn Poole
www.alwynpoole.substack.com

Stuff reports:

A social media interaction between Spark NZ and a prominent transgender activist has led to threats of boycotting the company.

Over the weekend, the telco’s reply to a post from trans activist Shaneel Lal on the new social media platform Threads ruffled the feathers of some of its customers.

Lal’s post read: “Dear Threaders, Can we agree that we won’t tolerate TERFs on Threads. They’ve made the lives of trans people living hell on almost all platforms. Let’s not allow their hatred to poison this app too. Requested with love.”

To which Spark NZ replied: “Yes PLEASE, wholeheartedly co-signed” accompanied by two emojis including the transgender flag.

This was a pretty huge blunder by Spark. They messaged that they want people whose opinions differ on issues of gender to be banned from social media. And this wasn’t even in response to a query – they just decided to offer their view, and when asked if that was their official view, said yes.

Why do corporates think it is a good idea to take a stand on political issues?

They are very lucky that it is harder to swap telcos that it is to swap beer brands.

Stuff reports:

Labour has well and truly lost its pandemic popularity, according to the latest political poll.

The Labour Party has fallen to its lowest point since 2019, on the Talbot Mills corporate poll. Talbot Mills is also the Labour Party’s pollster, but this poll was for its corporate clients.

It polled just over 1000 people at the end of June and start of July, shortly after concerns were reported about Labour minister Kiritapu Allan’s management of staff and after Michael Wood slowly and then spectacularly lost his job as a minister.

Compared to its last poll, Talbot Mills reported a major slump for Labour. It was down five points, to 31% – five points below National as well.

ACT was on 12%. The Greens, 8%.

Both Te Pāti Māori and NZ First came in at about 4%, just below the 5% mark required to enter Parliament without an electorate seat.

Based on those reported figures, the seats in Parliament would be:

• National 47 (+14 from election)
• Labour 41 (-24)
• ACT 16 (+6)
• Greens 11 (+1)
• Maori 5 (+3)

National and ACT could govern on 63 seats out of 120.

Radio NZ report:

The Defence Force has conceded Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ trip to China was the first time it had sent along a dedicated backup plane, despite earlier defending the practice as “nothing unusual”.

The decision last month to send a second Boeing 757 to Asia in case the first broke down attracted international attention and strong criticism from National and ACT, who described it as a source of national embarrassment.

At the time, a spokesperson for Hipkins defended having a Plan B to ensure the mission’s success.

“It is not unusual for the Air Force to provide backup aircraft, where available. This has occurred more frequently following a highly publicised series of breakdowns affected a delegation led by [former prime minister] John Key in 2016.”

A Defence Force (NZDF) spokesperson also told RNZ the practice was “nothing unusual”.

On further questioning by RNZ, however, the spokesperson could cite just two other instances since 2016 when aircraft were “officially tasked as backups” for prime ministerial travel – and neither were ultimately used for that purpose.

So both the PMs Office and NZDF said that sending a second plane along was nothing unusual, and weeks later we find out the truth – it had never occurred before.

So much for the podium of truth!