Newshub reports:

Labour’s candidate Ingrid Leary has recently moved to Dunedin from Waiheke Island.

Newshub asked her if she’d stay in Dunedin even if she didn’t win, and Leary replied she “hasn’t thought about not winning”.

But Newshub’s unearthed an interview Leary did with Radio Waiheke where she said: “It has been a safe Labour seat so if I dont win the seat I probably won’t ever be catching a plane back to Dunedin.”

So Leary will only live in Dunedin if she is elected an MP. Otherwise back to Waiheke. Not exactly commitment.

Leary said she meant she won’t feel comfortable coming back if she loses.

“I’m expected to win the seat, it’s a strong safe Labour seat,” she told Newshub.

“I’m working really hard to make sure it stays that way and I’d be very embarrassed if I didn’t win the seat, it would mean I’d done something terribly wrong.”

Nice spin, but actually Taieri is not a safe Labour seat. Dunedin South was but Taieri has very different boundaries. It includes a lot of South Otago including Balclutha.

The NZ First List is:

1	Winston Peters (nc)
2	Fletcher Tabuteau (+2)
3	Tracey Martin (nc)
4	Shane Jones (+4)
5	Ron Mark (-3)
6	Darroch Ball (-1)
7	Mark Patterson (nc)
8	Talani Meikle (new)
9	David Wilson (+5)
10	Denis O’Rourke (+3)
11	Erika Harvey (new)
12	Mahesh Bindra (-2)
13	Jamie Arbuckle (+10)
14	Mark Arneil (new)
15	Joshua Gunn (new)
16	Stu Husband (+1)
17	Jenny Marcroft (-8)

Marcroft obviously committed the unforgivable sin of having her own opinions!

Stats NZ reports:

Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 12.2 percent in the June 2020 quarter, the largest quarterly fall recorded since the current series began in 1987, as the COVID-19 restrictions in place through the quarter impacted economic activity, Stats NZ said today.

“The 12.2 percent fall in quarterly GDP is by far the largest on record in New Zealand,” national accounts senior manager Paul Pascoe said

Measures to contain COVID-19 have led to historically large falls in GDP in many parts of the world, with countries’ results reflecting the nature and timing of their responses, and the structure of their economies. For example, New Zealand’s result compares to falls of 7.0 percent in Australia, 11.5 percent in Canada, 7.9 percent in Japan, 20.4 percent in the United Kingdom, and 9.1 percent in the United States.

So a larger fall than Australia, Canada, Japan and the US.

And the Government has no plan to rebuild the economy to get us out of deficits. Their plan is to have us running deficits for 15 years!

The United States death toll from Covid-19 has now hit 200,000. This graph of the seven OECD countries with the highest death rates shows how every other country which had a high death rate managed to dramatically slow the infection and hence death rates.

But the United States is not slowing at all. They have now overtaken France, Sweden and Italy in terms of death rates. In a few days or weeks they will overtake UK and Spain.

ACT leader David Seymour has taken the chance to spruik his views on freedom of speech, at a public meeting in Palmerston North.

Speaking to about 50 people at the Conference and Function Centre on Tuesday night, Seymour, after making a short campaign speech, was asked about Massey University’s decision to last year take down posters put up by students to protest growing restrictions on freedom in Hong Kong.

First-time voter and Massey University student Cay Chan raised the point, after posters supporting the Hong Kong protests were removed from the Palmerston North campus in October.

Chan said many students were still upset and were worried about the consequences of openly advocating political views on campus.

Seymour said it was a major issue in New Zealand and he had written a bill that would cut government funding to universities that did not take appropriate steps to protect and foster freedom of speech.

A financial penalty for being anti free speech is probably the only thing that can incentivise them to be pro free speech.

Some of them receive millions from the Chinese Government, so it is not surprising they go out of their way to placate their funders.

  

Catherine Marks and Colin Gavaghan write:

As the referendum on the End of Life Choice Act approaches, people naturally want to know – are the safeguards in the Act safe enough? As two lawyers (one practicing and one academic) with extensive expertise in this area, our answer to this question is a resounding and evidence-based ‘yes’.

Our analysis has found New Zealand’s assisted dying Act is one of the most rigorous in the world. It strongly mirrors legislation that is working well in countries similar to ours (culturally and in terms of medical practice), including Victoria and Western Australia, with some additional protections.

Reports commissioned by governments into the international experience, including recent comprehensive parliamentary reports from Australia, have all found the safeguards work well and that predictions of abuse or pressure on the vulnerable have simply not materialised. There has been no “slippery slope” – the laws have remained narrow and where there has been change, it has gone through a parliamentary process. As many reports emphasise, doctors are already trusted to assess depression, coercion and ambivalence in life and death situations.

Something people may be unaware of is that doctors involve have to be certain that an applicant is eligible at every step of the process. It isn’t something they do just once at the beginning or even twice at the beginning and end.

Second, there is extensive evidence – including a 100-year study of coronial records in New Zealand – showing people take their lives prematurely when assisted dying is not available (while they are still physically able). 

I personally knew someone who killed themselves because euthanasia wasn’t available for them in the future.

In New Zealand’s Act, the eligibility criteria are very narrow. It is not enough to be terminally ill with fewer than six months to live. You must also be experiencing unbearable suffering that cannot be relieved by treatment that is tolerable to you and you must be in a state of advanced and irreversible physical decline. This means you must be very ill indeed and without prospect of recovery. You must also be at least 18 years old and assessed as competent to make a decision specifically about assisted dying.

And again the doctors involved must, at every stage, be assured you are eligible. If you are not, they face criminal penalties including jail for being involved.

New Zealand’s High Court analysed the Act following an application brought by Hospice NZ seeking various declarations on how the Act should be interpreted. The judgment emphasises the extent of safeguards set out in the Act, including in relation to assessment of any pressure. The process must be immediately stopped if a doctor or nurse at any time suspects pressure. Doctors are required to remind a person on multiple occasions they can stop the process at any time or defer. Importantly, doctors are skilled in detecting pressure and already do this in end of life decisions (for example to end life supporting treatment).

And again if a doctor or nurse continues despite suspecting pressure, they face criminal liability.

The extensive evidence we have analysed demonstrates beyond doubt in our view that New Zealand’s assisted dying law can be safely implemented. It is now over to New Zealanders to provide those facing an inevitable and intolerable death with choice and compassion at the end of their life.

We all get to vote. Make sure your vote counts.

The Herald reports:

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters says NZ First turned down a proposal from Advance New Zealand to join forces.

“Advance New Zealand wanted to join New Zealand First but we said no,” Peters said.

He was speaking in Tauranga’s Red Square and responding to a woman holding a poster with images of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and communist symbols.

Asked why the party refused, Peters said the reasons would be “obvious to any sensible, sane, rational person”.

Not a hard choice is it. One co-leader is before the courts facing charges from the Serious Fraud Office, and the other co-leader is the sort of conspiracy theorist who probably thinks the moon landing was faked.

The PREFU released today shows how dire the economic situation is. Some key aspects:

• Unemployment to hit 7.7% next year and remain over 5% until 2027!
• A massive $32 billion deficit in 2020/21, which is 10.5% of GDP.
• Net debt to hit 55% of GDP in 2024
• Assumes border restrictions stay in place throughout 2021
• Annual growth after the recession end downgraded from 3.9% to 2.8%
• A near permanent deficit, with an OBEGAL deficit persisting until at least 2033 – so that is 13 years of deficits

So this is the status quo – an endless deficit, debt over 50% of GDP and unemployment remaining over 5% for seven years.

That’s one reason to vote for a party that is promising better than the status quo.

I’ve updated the graph showing the probability of Trump winning in 538’s model.

In 2016 his chances moved between 12% and 48% – a lot of variation.

In 2020 his high point has been 31% (higher than election eve 2016 which of course he won) and the low point 21%.

September has seen his chances slide from 31% to 24%. The Woodward book is probably not helping him as it means the headlines are about his handling of Covid, not the issues he wants to campaign on.

The BSA has ruled:

The Authority has upheld a complaint that a 1 News item reporting on National MP Simon Bridges travelling from Tauranga to Wellington during COVID-19 Level 4 lockdown breached the accuracy standard. The Authority found that the item, which was exclusively focussed on MPs breaking lockdown rules, was misleading in putting Hon Simon Bridges in that category. It found that the broadcaster had not made reasonable efforts to clarify that under the rules, he was allowed to travel to Parliament for work.

That story was very damaging. It is little consolation to have a correction months later, but at least we have an official ruling it was inaccurate.

UPDATE: In an unprecedented move, the BSA has removed the ruling from its website. I can only assumed they have been heavied or pressured by someone to do so.

Google however has cached the decision here.

UPDATE: The BSA has advised me:

1. The BSA has withdrawn a decision published on 15 September relating to a One News item about travel during lockdown by the then Leader of the Opposition Hon Simon Bridges.

2. It has come to our attention that the decision was made on the basis of an incorrect assessment of lockdown regulations.

3. The BSA is reviewing its decision and will reissue it as soon as possible.

4. The BSA regrets this situation.

My understanding is that the decision referred to the wrong version of the lockdown regulations.

  

Stuff reports:

Labour will commit to delivering Auckland’s axed light rail project if it wins the election, Transport Minister Phil Twyford says.

During the 2017 election campaign, Jacinda Ardern promised to have the first section of the light rail line between Britomart and Mt Roskill built by 2021.

They promised not that light rail will start by 2021, but that it will be completed. They took two and a half years to even decide on basic parameters such as route.

The project was beset by leaks from NZTA, suggesting incompetence and a lack of direction from the Beehive.

One can probably use a stronger word than suggesting.

Stuff reports:

It was a fine winter’s day when a Waikato mayor loaded up his ute with a ladder and some handyman tools and set out on a mission to change the law.

Matamata-Piako Mayor Ash Tanner pulled up in Manawarū with a stack of freshly made, but illicit speed limit signs.

Without anyone knowing, he removed the 70kmh speed signs and replaced them with 50kmh lollipops – a move designed to slow down traffic that passes a local school, cafe and bicycle traffic that crosses the road at two points.

The new signs are made to regulation, but they don’t have the required sign-off from authorities and the maverick mayor was operating outside the law when he put them up on July 30. His council is now trying to tie up loose ends with NZTA to make the changes legal.

Tanner changed the speed signs out of frustration after years of battling the New Zealand Transport Agency [NZTA] to have the speed reduced, he told Stuff.

I’d say he is going to be easily re-elected.

Stuff reports:

Labour has confirmed it will not extend the fees-free programme for tertiary education to cover any more years of study if elected this year.

The party’s education spokesman, Chris Hipkins, said following Covid-19 the focus would stay on encouraging and reforming vocational education.

The 2017 election policy was originally scheduled to extend to two years of academic study in 2021 and three by 2024, but this has now been indefinitely put on ice.

Just another Labour failure. The policy did nothing but transfer wealth to future lawyers and accountants. Labour should be ashamed of it, and at least they have ditched extending it as they promised.

They said it would allow more people to undertake tertiary education. They even had one of the official measures of its success to be increased participation.

But guess what happened?

In 2017 there were 343,590 students enrolled in tertiary education.

In 2019 it dropped to 328,075.

Yes they spend hundreds of millions of dollars to see a 4.5% drop in enrolments!

The Herald reported:

Police have arrested and charged six men following an investigation into historical sexual offending at Dilworth School in Auckland.

Detective Senior Sergeant Geoff Baber said the Auckland City Criminal Investigation Branch had been investigating since a complaint was initially made a year ago.

A number of serious offences allegedly occurred across a number of decades from the 1970s to the early 2000s, Baber said.

“At this stage in our investigation we have identified 17 victims,” he said.

A 72-year-old, 73-year-old, 68-year-old, 69-year-old, 72-year-old and 78-year-old have been charged.

This is a stunning development. It is not unusual for schools to have had sexual offenders from time to time. But to have six different alleged offenders and 17 victims suggests something on a very different scale.

Good on Dilworth for front footing this and not seeking name suppression. Dilworth has provided excellent education to many students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. But once the criminal trials are over, there will be questions over how such (alleged) offending went undetected for so long.

On my Patreon I have now completed the Central North Island electorate races profiles.

The summary of them is:

• Safe National: Port Waikato, Hamilton West, Coromandel, Tauranga, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Taupo, New Plymouth, Taranaki King-Country
• Leans National: Hamilton East
• Too Close Too Call: East Coast
• Leans Labour:
• Safe Labour: Waiariki, Hauraki-Waikato

The last area to be done in Northern (Auckland and Northland). This area will have many interesting races.

  

Newshub reports:

Former National Party MP and Advance NZ co-leader Jami-Lee Ross won’t contest the seat of Botany at the election.

That’s probably good for the people of Botany.

Botany, which Ross held for National from 2011 until his falling out with the party in 2018, will be contested by National candidate Christopher Luxon, the former Air New Zealand chief executive.

It’s a safe National seat, but Ross said he believes it was a three-way race this election between himself, Luxon and Labour’s candidate, Naisi Chen.

In no way was it a three way race. In a poll done by Curia in August 2020, Jami-Lee Ross was at 1.8%. And no that is not a typo – 1.8% not 18%.

Jami-Lee has pulled out because he knew it was going to be a humiliating thrashing. Otherwise he would still be standing.

The Government promised it would move the Government fleet of 15,000 vehicles to be emissions free by 2025. How is it going three years in, or 37% of the way towards the end date?

Before I answer this, I should point out the difference between policies about things you do and do not directly control. A policy on reducing a waiting list is more difficult as you don’t control all the factors such as demand, prices etc.

But a policy about making Government vehicles emissions free is very much within the control of the Government. It is not overly complicated. You just tell agencies you want then to do it, at this pace.

So anyway how are Labour doing. There are 15,870 vehicles in the Government fleet. To be on track for 2025 you would expect around 6,000 vehicles to now be emissions free (ie electric). Even a result of say 4,000 or so would be pretty decent progress, allowing for faster uptake in the final five years.

The actual result is 108 vehicles or 0.68% of the fleet. Yes 0.68%. Not 6.8%. In three years they have managed almost nothing.

People need to understand Kiwibuild is not an aberration. It is the norm in terms of delivery vs rhetoric.

The Herald editorial:

Members of the Make It 16 group have presented their views in recent weeks, plumping for a lowered voting age.

The for and against arguments are pretty well defined. People in their mid-teens are frustrated with a lack of representation in decisions that will affect their immediate futures.

It’s always a sign of bad things to come when an assertion is stated as a fact.

Has anyone ever polled mid-teens to ask them if they are frustrated they can’t vote until they’re 18? I suspect the vast majority of mid teens are not at all frustrated. They are focused on other things.

Just because a few activists say they are frustrated, doesn’t mean they represent all teens.

In the New Zealand context, Labour and the Greens have expressed interest in lowering the age. An election result along similar lines to current polling might put the issue on the next government’s table.

Their interest is in having them vote, as they tend to do better with younger voters.

There are an estimated 1.1 million people under the age of 18 in New Zealand, about a quarter of the population. Based on international experience, lack of overriding scientific evidence and in the face of falling voter turnout, the case for holding the line at 18 is flimsy.

Any line is arbitrary. 16 is arbitrary. So is 13 and 3/4. Or 18. Or 17. Unless you believe there should be no age limit at all, then the argument is what is the best age limit.

In a poll Curia did, only 8% of adult New Zealanders supported lowering the voting age to 16. 18 is the age at which you are generally regarded as an adult, and gain almost all your full rights.

A guest post by Jack5:

The National Library’s cull of 600,000 international books, half-completed, has been surprisingly little debated. What are the criteria for dumping books, and are our librarians misguided in believing that digital replacements for some of them will last? We mostly find librarians helpful and knowledgeable, but if the national librarians mirror those in the regions, they will likely be mainly at the leftist end of politics, and mainly wide-aWoke. Someone has to select books, but culling them is a step beyond that. Who culls the cullers? The National Library could put titles of culled books on-line so we could judge it’s fair and impartial in its purge. It could even partner with someone like TradeMe and auction the discards. The National Library Director Content Services, Rachel Esson, is reported at the Radio NZ web site as saying:

“”Libraries continue to grow and we are collecting New Zealand, Pacific and Maori material. That’s our core role, and we add to that collection between 80,000-100,000 items a year.”

The United States and the UK print nearly half a million book titles a year in English, and even Australia publishes more than 28,000. New Zealand produces about 3500 new titles and reprints a year. This includes a few hundred books about Maori, a minority of them in Maori language. Tonga and Western Samoa don’t even make the Wikipedia list of books published by country. The way society seeks and accesses knowledge has changed “so much,” with the advent of online tools, Esson told the reporter. She said:

“The biggest gaps in terms of access to online material, is New Zealand Maori and Pacific material – as the National Library, we want to focus on that.”

Is Esson dumping hundreds of thousands of books, to help finance digitising a few hundred Maori books a year? Some contractor in Dhaka might do that for a song. Esson and her colleagues are naive about the durability of digital books, online or not. Books available on the internet are in files somewhere. Print on paper can have extremely long life. The Buddhist Diamond Sutra, of Chinese characters printed on a scroll of grey printed paper, is about 1150 years old, and the ornately hand-written St Cuthbert Gospel is more than 1300 years old. Computerised files gradually become unreadable unless periodically renewed. Even products such as DVD M-discs designed to last for centuries, will, way in the future, require compatible hardware and programs to access their content. Esson says it costs $1 million a year to house the national book collection, which is trivial compared with the hundreds of millions politicians sprinkle like confetti. Renewing data files every few years, with costs of administration, hardware and software, could prove more expensive than paper-book storage costs – and less secure. The National Library’s “progress” in its book cull: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/425885/national-library-in-middle-of-first-major-cull-of-international-books How long digital information will last compared with information on paper: https://www.clir.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/ensuring.pdf

The Herald reports:

Sanzaar and New Zealand Rugby bosses have expressed surprise at Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s suggestion that “politics” was behind the decision to award the Rugby Championship hosting rights to Australia.

Sanzaar CEO Andy Marinos and NZR counterpart Mark Robinson were baffled by the comments, insisting instead that the more favourable quarantine regulations across the ditch was the reason for the revamped four-nation tournament moving there.

The Herald reported early on Friday that the tournament, set to start in November and originally destined for New Zealand, would be moved across the Tasman following a crunch meeting between representatives from New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Argentina.

However, Ardern insisted at a press conference shortly before the announcement that “Sanzaar politics” was to blame for the decision.

What baffles me is why she said this?

She could have just said we were not prepared to relax quarantine regulations to save the tournament, and most people would probably be fine with that.

But instead she is pretending it isn’t due to that.