An interesting poll from YouGov on the net favourability for members of the royal family. In order, they are:

1. The Queen +71%
2. Prince William +65%
3. Duchess of Cambridge +62%
4. Princess Anne +50%
5. Prince Charles +24%
6. Prince Philip +28%
7. Prince Edward +9%
8. Duchess of Cornwall +1%
9. Prince Harry +1%
10. Duchess of Sussex -26%
11. Prince Andrew -73%

No huge surprises there. The only member more unpopular than the Duchess of Sussex is the guy the FBI wants to talk to about sex with under age girls.

The Queen, William, Kate and Anne all in a hugely popular tier. Charles and Philip reasonably popular. Edward, Camila and Harry all a bit blah.

Of perhaps more interest is how they have changed since March 2018. The changes in net favourability are:

1. Prince Charles +15%
2. Duchess of Cornwall +10%
3. The Queen +8%
4. Duchess of Cambridge +6%
5. Prince William +0%
6. Prince Philip +0%
7. Prince Harry -62%
8. Duchess of Sussex -65%

So Charles and Camilla on the way up. Harry and Meghan have managed to inflict the biggest own goal in history. I mean that is a staggering change.

On Patreon I have done a fuller analysis of the new Ministry. This may surprise some, but overall I am very positive. My summary:

Overall this is a very smart Ministry decision by Ardern. They do still have a number of weaker ministers, but the important portfolios have gone to competent Ministers. The critical ones for the next term are:

* Finance – Robertson
* Housing – Woods
* Education – Hipkins
* Health – Little
* Attorney-General – Parker
* Justice – Faafoi
* Transport – Wood

If they manage to deliver and/or manage competently in those areas, they will be well placed in 2023.

But even with reasonably competent Ministers, some of those areas will be very challenging. Housing is looking to be a nightmare with the waiting list skyrocketing even faster than house prices. Repealing Three Strikes could be very unpopular and restructuring health is always dangerous, especially at a time of great funding stress.

The biggest losers are Phil Twyford who drops 18 places to outside Cabinet and Salesa who is dumped from the ministry entirely.

Poto Williams gains the most, up 12 spots. Jackson and Henare also promoted to Cabinet.

New Cabinet Ministers are Jan Tinetti, Michael Wood, Kiri Allan and Ayesha Verrall. Radhakrishnan becomes a Minister outside.

Full list is here.

Unlike most readers here, I have had a strong relationship with the US Republican Party. While of course I can’t vote in US elections, I have followed them since I was 13. In 1980 I wanted Reagan to win. In 1984 even more so. In 1998 was a Bush fan and in 1992. Thought Dole would be better than Clinton in 1996. Big fan of W in 2004 and 2004. Would have loved McCain to win in 2008, and still think he would have been far better than Obama. Same with Romney in 2012.

But I’ve not just observed from afar. Though both the IDU and the IYDU I’ve been fortunate enough to be hosted by the Republican Party on multiple occasions. I even got to attend a party leaders and presidents meeting hosted by the RNC in DC. I’ve met RNC Chairs, white house staff, governors, congressmen. Have been good friends of many Chairs of the College Republicans. Have attended campaign schools in the US, and also have been hosted by prominent conservative organisations such as Heritage, Cato and ATR. So trust me when I say I have a strong emotional and political attachment to the Republican Party, and have many friends who have held high office in the party.

It will surprise no-one that I want Trump to lose. I have made that clear over many years.

But I also want the Republican Party to lose the Senate and remain in the minority in the House. I say this, even though I will detest many of the policies a Biden Presidency could push through a Congress they control. And don’t even start me on the Judges.

But I believe the GOP can only regain its previous greatness by realising how grievous an error they made in tolerating the worst excesses of Trump. Not one GOP House representative voted to impeach him and the only honourable Senator was Mitt Romney who voted in convict him.

Trump is a clear and present danger to the founding principles of the republic. He is everything the founding fathers were worried about. What he tried to do with Ukraine was ten times worse than anything Nixon did. His public demands that his FBI Director and Attorney-General go after his political opponents are intolerable. And the vast majority of Republican legislators know deep down Trump is unfit to hold any elective office. Yet they sold out their principles through either cowardice or putting power first.

If Trump is defeated, I have little doubt he will end up convicted in at least state courts of multiple crimes. He may become the first former President to go to prison.

The Republican Party needs to suffer such a horrible defeat, that they will say no to the next Trump like figure who comes along (Trump of course is not really a Republican – he was a liberal Democrat for many years. He has just used the GOP). Only if the outcome in 2020 results in stuff GOP officeholders and activists hate, will they learn the lesson. A Supreme Court packed with liberal judges. A huge tax hike. Democrat controlled state legislatures deciding congressional boundaries etc. The more it hurts, the more likely they will turn their back on Trump.

I fully expect and hope that in 2024 I’ll be morally supporting the GOP, especially if it is Nikki Haley. Maybe even in 2022.

Now again I am not and never will be a US citizen. It is not my country. But the reason I care is that I believe (unlike many on the left) that the US has been a wonderful force for good in the world. They were pretty much the first modern democratic republic. They gave us the form of government, which is the most common in the world today. In the 1700s they debated freedom and rights. They gave us Washington and Adams and Jefferson. If the American Revolution had never occured, the world would be a far worst place today.

I never thought much of the policies or ideas of Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Obama or H Clinton. But I never doubted they were basically good people who would act in what they saw as the best interest of the United States and its people. The same with Reagan, Bush GHW, Dole, Bush GW, McCain and Romney.

Trump is different. He has demonstrated that on multiple occasions. His undermining of fair and free elections will especially do lasting damage. No amount of tax cuts or conservative judges makes up for that, and the GOP needs to realise that. I certainly hope they do, and they rebuild.

I mean his latest is falsely claiming the main reason the US has such a high Covid-19 death toll is because doctors are paid $2,000 more if they record someone dying from Covid-19. He’s the President, and he is blatantly lying about the entire medical profession to try and distract from his own failings. Has a single GOP Senator condemned him for this?

If he was in New Zealand, he’s be the co-leader of Advance NZ!

A really insightful article by Henry Cooke on why the yes vote failed to win the cannabis referendum. The TLDR version is:

• The PM refused to spend a cent of political capital on it. Only 55% of Labour voters voted for it. She could have easily got that over 60%.
• They should have gone for decriminalisation, not legalisation
• They should have done what euthanasia did and passed the law in advance, conditional on a referendum endorsement, so people knew exactly what a yes vote would entail
• The yes campaign was terrible, and failed to focus on human stories, as the euthanasia campaign did
• The yes campaign was designed more to make yes voters feel good, than persuade more conservative voters to vote yes

Stuff reports:

A maximum four-year parliamentary term, lowering the five per cent threshold and abolishing the coat-tail rule could be on the way as part of the Labour-Greens cooperation agreement.

A four year term is a great idea but must be decided by referendum, not MPs.

There is a case to lower the 5% threshold, but this should only be done if there is consensus amongst the parties.

Abolishing the one electorate threshold is a bad idea. It makes Parliament less proportional as it makes it harder for parties to qualify for List MPs.

It is arguably anti-Maori Party also.

They have provisionally won Waiariki. They also got 1.0% of the party vote. If they had got 1.2% then under the current law they would get a List MP. Labour and Greens want to deny the Maori Party the opportunity to get List MPs.

Here we see where politicians who push hate speech laws want to take us.

The Times reports:

Conversations over the dinner table that incite hatred must be prosecuted under Scotland’s hate crime law, the justice secretary has said.

Journalists and theatre directors should also face the courts if their work is deemed to deliberately stoke up prejudice, Humza Yousaf said.

This has of course been done before. I think it was in East Germany.

The Public Order Act 1986, which currently outlaws threatening, abusive or insulting words and behaviour, includes a “dwelling defence” that states threatening language cannot be prosecuted if spoken at home.

The new bill will be based on that act, but Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf has made clear his hope that a “dwelling defence” will not be included.

Just imagine this. You have a debate over dinner about whether transgender athletes should compete in the Olympics according to their biological sex or their gender identity. Someone can then complaint to the Police that you incited hatred towards trans people and the Police come knocking to interview you about your dinner conversation.

The Greens have accepted the paltry offering from Labour, because it is basically better than nothing. But it is pretty minor. The key aspects are:

• Greens will vote for or abstain on confidence and supply
• Greens will vote with Labour on procedural motions in the House and select committees, except urgency
• Marama Davidson is made Minister for the prevention of Family and Sexual Violence
• James Shaw is Minister of Climate Change
• Green MPs get to chair one select committee and deputy chair another
• Co-Leaders get to meet Jacinda once every six weeks

So there is nothing specific on policy. The two ministerial portfolios are ones with basically no power. They have no agency that they can direct. All they can do is co-ordinate.

Chairing a select committee is of slight use. Being a deputy chair is of no use. Deputy Chairs have no power.

As an undecided voter right up until the day of the election on whether or not to vote in favour of legalising cannabis, the “yes” campaign needed me. 

Their job should have been to convince people like me – someone who didn’t have a strong opinion either way but wanted to be informed before making a choice – that the legalisation of recreational cannabis was the right thing to do for society. The campaign couldn’t have done a worse job if it tried. 

The most detrimental aspect of the “yes” campaign was that they were trying to persuade those who had likely already decided to vote in favour. Their messaging was not framed in a way that targeted the centre-right or more conservative Labour voters, and in some cases, ostracised them completely. 

Advertisements like “To put it bluntly, if you vote no we can’t be friends” from the Make It Legal campaign while accusing such voters of being complicit in organised crime and gang activity wasn’t the best way to get them on side. The tactic certainly didn’t work on me. 

The “yes” campaign also minimised and dismissed a number of my concerns, including stoned drivers on the roads, the impact of cannabis use on a person’s mental health, its addictive nature, its conflict with New Zealand’s supposed goal of smoke-free 2025, and much more. I was either told the evidence didn’t support my concerns, or that it didn’t matter because “everyone” was consuming cannabis anyway. I was left more unsettled by the end of the campaign than when it started. 

Bringing out what seemed to be only centre-left advocates for legalisation (such as Helen Clark) also wasn’t going to convince traditional National or conservative voters to vote in favour. Where were the centre-right advocates? Not one proponent of legalising cannabis use with whom I share values fronted the “yes” campaign – and not because there aren’t any. 

Optics aside, the arguments put forward in favour of legalisation just weren’t convincing. I don’t care about the tax revenue, or that people use cannabis regardless. I do care that its possession can result in convictions, and that Police spend far too many hours on cannabis related crime. 

However, I work with children and teenagers every day, and their wellbeing and future is central to every value that I hold. Ultimately, the evidence put forward in favour of legislation did not convince me enough – or at all – that young people would be better off with cannabis legalised. Why we would experiment on a generation that is already struggling with mental health is beyond comprehension to me. 

The vast majority of the country would agree that our current drug laws aren’t fit for purpose; the status quo is clearly not working. Upon weighing up the positives and negatives of both outcomes, however, this was not a strong enough argument in favour of legalisation either for me. I would have, without any hesitation, voted in favour of decriminalisation, however. 

I understand some of the arguments around why the option of decriminalisation wasn’t considered and I know it’s not the perfect solution. However, it’s almost certain that a referendum of this nature would have passed. We are now left in a position where, instead of a stepping stone that would have addressed some of the concerns surrounding police time and cannabis convictions, nothing will happen at all. 

Despite the frustrations I had with the “yes” campaign, this wasn’t an easy choice to make, even though I did my research. In fact, I only decided the night before I voted, which was accompanied by a moment of pause in the polling both before ticking “no”. The situation we remain in is not ideal but, whichever way I voted, I knew there would be negative consequences as a result. 

I would be a fierce supporter of the decriminalisation of cannabis and I hope this becomes a reality in the very near future. This time round, however, legalisation was simply one step too far.

Monique Poirier has a Masters degree in Political Studies, and is a small business owner and former Parliamentary staffer. She is the Campaigns Manager for the Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance.

Stuff reports:

A 13-year-old girl is “absolutely gutted” to be sidelined from a Wellington rugby league tournament because rules state her grade is for boys only.

Pacific Youth Cup organisers told her team, Te Whanganui-a-Tara, if they play Aayla Toman on Saturday, refs will not allow the game to go ahead and the team will be withdrawn.

Previously, the team said they would risk disqualification and forfeit their points and play Aayla.

New Zealand Rugby League rules state the maximum age for males and females to play in mixed gender full-contact rugby league is 12 years of age.

It seems to me the rules are too restrictive and a rule designed to protect girls is harming them.

Absolutely there should be a girls only section, that is restricted to girls. That protects them.

But if a girl wants to play in a mixed team, and is willing to accept the greater risk of injury, they should be allowed to.

Basically what I would do is have a girls section and an open section.

The margin between yes and no was -7% in the provisional results. This may change in the final results, but we can do a quick compare with the six companies that did a public pre-election poll. I’ve calculated for each what they had as the margin between yes and no, once you remove undecideds.

1. Colmar Brunton -11% (4% difference)
2. Green Party +3% (10% difference)
3. UMR +4% (11% difference)
4. Reid Research -18% (11% difference)
5. Horizon +5% (12% difference)
6. Research NZ +7% (14% difference)

So only two companies correctly forecast no would win. However one of them (RR) had a loss by 18%, when it was only 7%. Both the Green Party internal poll and UMR were closer to the correct margin.

I will do a revised post when we have final results as that will probably change things.

Stuff reports:

New Zealanders in the United States are being warned to be cautious in the lead up to its election.

The 59th US presidential election is set to take place on Wednesday, New Zealand time.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) Safe Travel website said political activity, including rallies and protests, could be expected in the lead-up to the election and the presidential inauguration.

Since early this year, there have been widespread protests and demonstrations, with some resulting in violence, looting and civil unrest.

“Even protests or political rallies which are intended to be peaceful can result in violence,” it said.

“A strong police and/or National Guard presence can be expected at any further protests. Police measures have, at times, included the use of rubber bullets and/or pepper spray to disperse crowds.”

MFAT said New Zealanders should avoid areas where political rallies or protest activity may occur.

This is incredibly sad. Who would have ever thought the NZ Government would have to warn NZers that it might be unsafe to be in the United States during the election period.

No matter who wins, I really hope it is a large margin and beyond dispute, so that the outcome is accepted.

On my Patreon I have posted an analysis of how 33 different demographic groups voted in the cannabis referendum.

People are also interested in how specials could affect the results. On the assumption that the 480,000 estimated specials are all valid, then here is how many would have to vote a particular way to change the provisional result.

Cannabis – would need 67.5% to vote yes and 32.5% to vote no to have yes win.

Euthanasia – even if 100% of specials were no, yes would still win by 55% to 45%.

If special voters are say 10% more liberal (yes votes 10% higher) than provisional voters, what would final results be.

• Cannabis Yes 48.2%, No 51.8%
• Euthanasia Yes 67.5%, No 32.5%

The End of Life Choice Act will come into force, having been supported in the referendum by 65% to 34% on provisional results.

The Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill will not be introduced to Parliament, having had 53% vote no and 46% vote yes.

Final results will come out next Friday, but are unlikely to change the provisional result unless two thirds voted yes for cannabis!

On Wednesday I blogged what I regarded as the ten best things about Donald Trump. They were:

1. He will sometimes defy the conventional wisdom
2. Judicial Appointments
3. He tries really hard to keep his promises
4. His instincts are anti-interventionist
5. He is more available to the media than any other modern President
6. He delivered large tax cuts
7. He is reasonably open about his motives
8. He is sceptical of regulations
9. Middle East peace deals
10. He is a cultural warrior against the woke cancel culture

So what are my list of the ten worst things:

1. He suffers from narcissistic personality order

A US Senator once said that narcissism is a bit like pornography. It is hard to precisely define, but you know it when you see it.

It is clear that Trump has extreme narcissism. I don’t mean the minor variety that many politicians have. I mean the variety which controls him so badly, he can’t act outside it.

Trump is addicted to the need for adoration. He constantly claims he is the greatest or the best at everything. He sees almost everything through a sole prism of how it impacts him personally.

His NPD is responsible for so many of his other failings. It also makes him very easy to manipulate. Other world leaders know they can get the US on side, merely by sucking up to him.

When asked what was the worst aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic which has killed 230,000 people his answer was that he knew a couple of people who died. His only lens is how it affects him.

2) Record deficits and debt

The national debt was $19.9 trillion when Trump took office. Last month it was $27 trillion, a 36% increase in four years. This is the fastest increase of any President.

He promised to eliminate the debt within 8 years. It is now $82,300 per person.

Debt to GDP is now 136%. His projected deficit for 2020 was $1.1 trillion pre-Covid. It is $3 trillion post-Covid.

Under Trump the GOP has abandoned their record of fiscal conservatism and are leaving the next generation not just massive debt, but a deficit that probably is too large to be eliminated.

3) Trump is a pathological liar

Now again all politicians tell lies from time to time. Most try not to, but there are few politicians who you will find are invulnerable to a fact check.

But Trump has a pathological tendency to lie constantly. He lies around 50 times a day. He can’t help himself. I’m not sure if he even regards them as lies. He seems to live in a fantasy universe of his own where whatever he says must be the truth. On one day he told 189 lies.

What convinces me his lies are pathological is because many of them are totally unnecessary. Take for example his lie that he had a bigger inauguration crowd than Obama, which he forced his press secretary to repeat.

No one (except Trump) ever expected he would have a bigger crowd than Obama. DC votes 91% Democrat. It is also 46% African American. Of course the first black Democratic President will have a larger crowd in DC than a Republican. No one expected Trump to have a bigger crowd.

But Trump could not handle the reality. So he lied about it, forced Sean Spicer to lie about it and instructed a Government photographer to edit or crop photos to remove empty spaces. And all for something no-one but Trump cared about.

4) Trump is a protectionist

Trump is an enemy of free trade and a rules based trading system. He is trying to cripple the World Trade Organisation, and sees trade as a zero sum game. He doesn’t see trade as something where both buyer and seller gain. His trade policies have been to the left of every modern Democratic President.

5) Trump is incompetent

I’ve worked for a head of government. I know a wee bit about what the role involves, and the sort of issues that need to be managed.

Trump is profoundly incompetent in almost all aspects of the job. He is a terrible negotiator who failed to get funding for the wall. He turned down an offer of $1.6 billion, shut down the Government and then did a deal where he got $1.38 billion. His negotiating style only works when he holds all the power. In a system of shared power, he has failed time after time.

He can’t even manage basic stuff like giving a clear message on Covid-19. For eight months he had done worse than nothing. A semi-competent head of government would be saying what are the fives most important things we need to do to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 and then make sure he was getting daily or weekly updates on them – important but non sexy stuff like PPE supplies.

Most Presidents have a problem that they can’t possibly find time for all the issues that they could help resolve. So staff triage issues so only the most complex go to the President.

Trump is the opposite. Almost nothing goes to the President. He is not interested. Other Presidents work 16 hour days. Bush would start at 0645. Obama would often work until 1 am. Trump barely had three hours of work or meetings a day. His diary often has up to eight hours of executive time, which we now know means watching Fox News.

Conservative Commentator Kevin Williamson has a good article here on Trump’s incompetence, and how his areas of success are generally the ones he knows nothing about.

6) Trump doesn’t read

It has been often reported that Trump basically doesn’t read anything at all, except articles about himself. He doesn’t read fiction. He reads very little non-fiction. He doesn’t read briefing papers. He has never read a biography of another President.

Again this is part of his NPD. He has no interest in anything but himself and has no need to read anything because he already knows the answer to everything.

7) His own appointees know he is a bad President

People appointed by the President to a senior job in the White House or Cabinet tend to be loyal to that President for pretty much life. They form an informal club and often get together and meet, and catch up with their former boss. These are people personally picked by the President.

With Trump the vast majority of those who were hand picked by him for senior jobs now say he is incompetent, dangerous, unfit for office or worse. These are people who worked with him day in and day out. Now sure you can be delusional like Trump and think they’re all wrong, or you could pause and think hey there is a pattern here.

Those who are known to have said Trump is unfit for office include two of his own Chiefs of Staff, two National Security Advisors, a Director of Communications, his Secretary of Defence, two Homeland Security Secretaries, his Attorney-General, his Secretary of State his Director of National Intelligence etc

8) Trump is cruel

Trump reminds me of the kids who pulls wings off flies. He has a streak of cruelty and lack of empathy that disqualifies him for public office. That’s not just my view, but the view of his sister who has known him all her life.

He mocks disabled reporters, the appearance of wives of candidates. He withdrew funding of medical bills for his nephew’s infant with cerebral palsy because of a dispute with his nephew. Yes he used a critically ill infant member of his family as negotiating leverage.

I’m an employer both in my own business, and have been on several boards that have had to decide to let people go. Like most decent human beings I try to do it in a way to treat people with dignity. Trump does the opposite. Cabinet Secretaries literally find out they have been sacked through his Twitter feed. There is no excuse for that, except that it illustrates Trump enjoys humiliating people and harming them,

He spreads vicious unfounded conspiracy theories that his former friend Joe Scarborough murdered Lori Klausutis because Scarborough is now critical of the President. He has no empathy for the huge pain it causes Lori’s parents to have her death made into a political attack. He is incapable of empathy unless it is of political benefit to him.

9) Trump is vindictive

The Washington Post is critical of Donald Trump. This is no surprise. It is a left leaning newspaper. Jeff Bezos purchased the Washington Post. Becuase Trump doesn’t like the articles published by the Washington Post he repeatedly demanded the Postmaster-General (which he appoints) double shipping rates for Amazon to pubish Bezos.

He tried 50 times to get the US Government to stop a merger of AT&T and Time Warner because TW own CNN which he doesn’t like.

Trump has a binary view of everything. Either you are personally loyal to him or you are an enemy. He sacks public servants because they told the truth under subpoena and oath. He sacks law enforcement officials because they won’t drop investigations.

He uses the power of his office to punish people because they are critical of him.

10) Trump is a danger to the rule of law

The rule of law may seem abstract to some people but it is of vital importance. It is what separates great countries from what authoritarian countries. It is the principle that everyone must obey the law, including those in Government.

Trump has publicly demanded his AG and FBI Director lay charges against his political opponents. He has publicly demanded charges be dropped against his friends. He has pardoned or commuted convicted criminals whose testimony could implicate him.

He put a freeze on funds approved by Congress for Ukraine, to try and blackmail the Ukrainian President into smearing Joe Biden.

He has spent months undermining faith in the democratic process by claiming that the elections will be fraudulent if he loses. This does potentially irreversible harm to democracy. If a major segment of the population do not accept the outcome of voting as legitimate, society crumbles.

I have little time for Al Gore, but after the US Supreme Court halted any further recounts in Florida, he did his country a huge service by declaring while he disagreed with the decision, he accepted it and George Bush was the President-Elect. Could you imagine Trump saying that if he was in that position. He would be calling for civil unrest or worse.

He has called for a Judge to be removed from a case because the Judge’s parents were Mexican (the Judge was born and raised 100% in the US).

Do you recall the outrage from Republicans when Obama’s AG had a five meeting meeting with Bill Clinton on a plane while the FBI was investigating Hillary’s emails. It definitely was an inappropriate meeting. But my God that is a 2 or 3 or a scale from 0 to 100 compared to Trump publicly demanding his AG and FBI Director open investigations or file charges against his political rival and/.or his son which is around a 90.

I could carry on with a list beyond 10. But in my mind Trump is psychologically unfit of office. There is no amount of policy outcomes that can compensate for him being who he is. He can’t change. He doesn’t want to. And this is not just a matter of style. This is about his eroding of democratic norms and values that may never be undone. He has set the bar so low for presidential behaviour that if God forbid you ever had a Democratic President who acted like Trump, the Republicans have sacrificed their ability to hold him or her to account. Once you accept a new low bar, it is very very hard to raise it again.

American politics, I sometimes jokingly remark, is a full contact sport, and this election campaign has been the most tumultuous and brutal in recent US history. Of great fascination this time is the divergent paths taken by the Biden and Trump campaigns on the manner in which they campaign. I will write more on this after the election once the result is known and so we can judge the merits of each style as to what resulted in victory.

I have always wanted to attend a Presidential campaign rally… for both parties, to get a feel for the differing atmospheres and so when Trump came to town for his first publicly available rally in the metro Phoenix area, I decided to go. I’d like to have gone to the Biden event in Phoenix on October 8, but it was not advertised, and it turned out to be for invited guests and media only. Before I speak about the Trump rally and his rallies in general, it is important to note that the Biden campaign not only holds significantly fewer rallies but limits attendance because of the coronavirus. Biden usually has around 50 people only in socially distanced circles and the most he has ever had so far was a rally in Georgia a few days ago when 350 showed up. Trump’s rallies average between 20 – 25,000 and are held almost exclusively outdoors near the hangers of smaller regional airports. The campaigns mock each other’s tactics, Trump calls Biden Sleepy Joe and taunts him on the few times he seems to venture out from the basement of his Wilmington, Delaware home and for the meagre attendances and Biden accuses Trump of reckless disregard for the pandemic and his surrogates have taken to calling Trump rallies super spreader events. With that introduction, here’s how a Trump rally looks.

Signing up

Even though Trump’s rallies are massive compared to Biden’s, there are actually limits placed on numbers usually by the Fire Departments of the municipalities where they are held. In theory all attendees are issued a ticket – in reality the Trump campaign website uses the ticketing process to collect email addresses and cell phone numbers for GOTV targeting. I was never issued an eticket as I enrolled too late with available ‘spaces’ being snapped up within hours. As it turned out, I bumped into an acquaintance who is a campaign volunteer and she said just show up early enough and you’ll get in as they don’t ask to see the tickets although they close the gate once the capacity is reached. My friend who came with me also enrolled and he did get an email and text confirmation. The sign up process was quick and easy and clear instructions were given with directions and what can or can’t be brought to the rally.

Site logistics

With a rally in such a large metropolitical area (greater Phoenix is almost 5 million), organisers planned for upwards of 30,000. It is easy to gloss over the huge logistics needed to host an event this large. Traffic must be managed so hundreds of police were commandeered from all of the cities on the west side of Phoenix as well as county and state police. You either park in expensive private car parks 15 minutes’ walk away or you park at the campaign’s designated site. There are the bleachers and miles of barricades to be installed, hundreds of fold up chairs for VIP sections, large signs to be erected, huge TV monitors, press bleachers, the podium and platform and logistics of where to park Airforce One so that it is behind the President when on camera and all the usual controlling of the air space coming in and out and making sure that the huge armoured Presidential Cadillac limo (called The Beast) is there to take the President from the plane steps to the rally site. There is the temperature checking and mask distribution tents and then the dozens of metal detector and bag search tables to be hired and set up. Then there are the dozens and dozens of buses that must be hired to shuttle attendees from the designated parking area to the airport. Then there are the paid staffers and many hundreds of volunteers who man the car parks, direct the buses, staff booths selling campaign gear, organise porta loos, schedule vendors selling food, distribute free water bottles to attendees, direct foot traffic and marshal in VIPs. Each rally is a monumental task of coordinated organisation and the Trump campaign does 2 or 3 a day and in the last few days of the campaign, he’ll do 5 or 6! Since the lockdowns were lifted and the GOP recommenced rallies, Trump has held 50 outdoor and 1 indoor event (the fateful Tulsa, OK rally in July). Each rally must cost $500,000 at least so by the time of election day, the campaign likely will have spent $35 million on rallies alone. Each rally is like a mini Superbowl and the Trump campaign will end up doing 70 just like the one yesterday! It’s at times like these that you realise what a huge place America is and the sheer scale of Presidential elections campaigns with EACH campaign spending over $1 Billion!

Arriving

The site for the designated parking was a massive 30 acre piece of empty land on a main road in the town of Litchfield about 6 miles (10 kms) from the Goodyear airport (a small airport that specialises in aircraft repair). We arrived 3 hours prior to the start and already there were 10,000s of cars packed in. Trump campaign volunteers with matching T shirts and white Trump cowboy hats guided the traffic in and so the parking went smoothly given the massive influx of cars. Lined up were about 12 huge buses and people just joined the queue and loaded on the first bus and so on. We ended up on a double decker bus which was fun.

Arriving at the site you soon saw why parking at the designated parking area was the best option because the police cordon was tight and probably 1 km from the site. It took a while to get off the bus due to the long queue of buses disgorging their passengers. Once off the buses, there were two checkpoints to pass through: a temperature check and getting a mask and then security. The first checkpoint had two lines, one for ticket holders and the other for those in a wait list in case not all ticketed people showed up. Normally at Trump rallies the numbers that show up greatly exceed capacity and so these people wait outside and view the rally on a giant screen. The temperature check was quick and anyone testing with a mild fever was turned away. Masks were optional because in Arizona and in the City of Goodyear, there is no outdoor mask mandate, only for indoor public spaces and only in the larger metro areas.

Once done with the temperature check you entered a very long security check queue lined with barricades and with toilets and vendors selling at the back. It was amazing to see the diversity of people lining up – of course plenty of Caucasians like us but I was stunned at the number of Hispanics and African Americans at the event. All ages were represented and not a few kids bunking school! Of note was the vast array of Trump paraphernalia being worn: hats, caps, t – shirts some with quite humourous lines and on behalf of groups (Latinos for Trump, Jews for Trump, Gays for Trump, Cops for Trump, Firemen for Trump even Armenians for Trump!), bags, flags and posters. I was one of the very few with no identifiable Trump gear on me. The line moved quite quickly, spirits were high, and everyone was very friendly. Next to us was an older women originally from Germany and a young black student who was a proud recent convert to Trump. The security screen was all run by the Secret Service (the branch of the Federal Government tasked to protect the President) assisted by TSA agents seconded from the main Phoenix airport. These are the lower level local SS staffers who do the perimeter screening versus the suited Presidential details that travel with him. I have to say that the SS have the most badass uniforms – imagine the average US cop but on steroids – completely black with a cool understated logo and all the gear you can imagine and all young, big and athletic. All bags were searched, and we had to give up our apples (could be thrown), cupcakes and brownies and a tube of Pringles. I could keep water bottles (although free water was given out), an energy bar and bananas.

When we arrived, it was already about 2/3rds full and so we were unable to get much of a decent position. When I was using the toilet, my friend managed to get into one of the bleachers where lower level VIPs were allowed to sit next to one of his mates who is a donor and he told me just to wait for the guy guarding the entrance to be distracted by the crowds and just walk in which I did despite not having the necessary lanyard. I was stopped a second time by a lady near the bleachers and just said that I’d been to the bathroom and she let me through. Now I didn’t have a seat per se but could sit on the step next to the bottom row and as it turned out, it was a brilliant position some 40 feet (12 m) from the podium. Also, in the neighbouring seat was one of the Republican representatives in the Arizona State House of Representatives and she proved to be a mine of information about the Trump campaign. She was fascinated to learn about NZ elections and campaigning.

The format once inside

The format is almost always the same. The ‘show’ is sequenced as follows:

• A central speaker’s podium on a raised platform is usually set in the middle of the rally area. The most important VIPs are in seated chairs in front and immediately to the side. In the front row were the other speakers and senior campaign and White House Staff and to the side also with easy access were all the major Arizona politicians – the Governor, Senator McSally, several of the GOP Congressmen and women, the GOP House Minority Leader, senior party officials and the AZ House Speaker. These areas are cordoned off with barricades manned by Secret Service assisted by the most massive and intimidating security guards dressed in black.
• There is a special set of bleachers in front of the podium at the back of the public area for the flood lights, TV cameras and the press pool. Behind the podium is the largest bleacher with hand selected people to be in the line of sight of the cameras televising the event. These people had colour coordinated gear and all wore campaign masks (although mask wearing in the main crowd was about 70:30 and mostly older people). Many in the bleacher behind the podium were Hispanics and each alternate person carried a distinctive Latinos for Trump sign. The rally location was chosen on the west side of Phoenix which is predominantly Hispanic due to the campaign’s efforts to woo the Latino vote. Others were high level donors who essentially bought their way into the premier location. On ether side were smaller bleachers for people who had paid extra for expedited entry. The sections closest to the large bleacher also were reserved for more POC and were a mixture of all ages and types, businesspeople, and ex – military.
• The main crowds filled up with standing room only behind the VIP seats and spilling out quite a distance either side of the podium. By about 1 hour before the event, the place was chocka.
• Loud motivating music played over the speakers. It was quite the classic playlist: Eye of the Tiger, We are the Champions and Bohemian Rhapsody, several Elton John hits and also some classic Michael Jackson with a few toe tapping country songs thrown in.
• Short warm up speakers kept the crowd entertained and at around about 45 minutes before Trump’s arrival, a singer sung “The Star Spangled Banner”, the National anthem and then everyone doffed hats and placed hands on hearts and pledged allegiance to the flag and it was quite the flag – a gigantic one hoisted by two cranes.
• 20 minutes out from arrival and most of the VIPs had arrived and my neighbour was able to explain who was who. Various Trump campaign staff came out with boxes of MAGA hats (now with 45 on the side) and threw heaps of them randomly into the crowd. Staffers also distributed water bottles as the temperature by now was about 24 C and sunny.
• Running about 15 minutes late, Airforce One was spotted in the sky and the crowd went crazy and as it landed, people were craning to get a shot of the iconic blue 747. More Secret Service agents began to man the barricades and speakers platform, the podium was cleaned and sanitized, the discrete teleprompters were adjusted and an official looking blue binder with the Presidential seal was placed on the podium.
• Trump’s preferred entrance song is “Proud to be an American” by Lee Greenwood and we could see the assembled small motorcade of SS agents and the Beast leave to pick up the President. As Trump walks in, the crowd is going berserk and everyone is on their feet and smart phone cameras rolling. Trump takes his time working the crowd, pointing at people, and raising his fist on a 90 degree angle and slightly pumping it. He looks happy and relaxed wearing a nice blue suit, white shirt and a red tie and of course his trademark fake light blond hair. He doesn’t look orange but sports a light late summer tan.
• Trump gives a typical stump speech that he’s now given with a few local variations over 50 times in this campaign alone. His is clever though – he mixes it up and weaves in praise for the location, name checks local politicians and incorporates commentary on the news of the day. He is extremely natural and charming, wise cracks regularly and mercilessly mocks his opponent. His practiced one liners are relentlessly optimistic, painting a positive vision of an America recovering economically from the lockdowns and he is encyclopedic in his reporting of his achievements in office. He paints a dystopian and dark vision of life under Biden – Harris and characteristically exaggerates like the showman he is (these statements will be described by the army of fact checkers later as more Trump lies). I will give more impressions at the end.
• The crowd was raucous and loud and interspersed his speech with chants of; U – S – A, 4 more years, Drain The Swamp, We Love You, CNN Sucks and one Lock Him Up.

Other speakers

The additional speakers are seamlessly woven in and each gave very short maybe 1 – 2 minute rousing stump speeches that were actually very impressive. They were:

Senator Martha McSally

McSally attempted to win the Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of Jeff Flake in 2018 and was just beaten by a moderate sounding Democrat Congresswoman called Krysten Sinema. McSally had fought a weak and poorly organised campaign. Governor Ducey appointed McSally to fill the vacant position left by the death of John McCain, but AZ electoral law requires any appointed Senator to face the electorate at the next election and not in the customary Senate six year term. In 2020 she faces former astronaut Mark Kelley, husband to former Tucson Congresswoman Gabby Gifford who was shot in 2011. It has been a very tough campaign against a high profile well-funded opponent and indeed backing McSally was probably the main reason for Trump’s visit to Phoenix. Her speech was a barnstorming summary of her versus her liberal opponent and she has been a full throated and never hesitant supporter of Trump.

Senator Rand Paul

Maverick Kentucky and prominent libertarian Senator Rand Paul took some time to become a strong Trump advocate but praised Trump for ending the USA’s “endless wars” and for supporting criminal justice reform. He castigated Obama for not supporting this reform that has seen mostly blacks incarcerated for low level drug crimes released early. Paul gave a full throated libertarian defense of Trump. In 2016 many libertarians, suspicious of Trump given his prior liberal proclivities in New York City, supported the quixotic campaign of Evan McMullin.

Senator Mike Lee

As a Senator from Utah, Lee is from the conservative, law and order side of the party and he was a fascinating choice as he publicly backed fellow Utah Mormon Evan McMullin in 2016 mostly because he saw Trump as unlikely to be a conservative.  Lee speaks fluent Spanish and spoke for a few minutes in Spanish directly to the Latino audience members extolling Trump’s achievements in the Hispanic community and appealing to the Catholic views on abortion strongly endorsed by Trump and for his successful appointment of Catholic Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. He was received rapturously. He spoke specifically to Protestant and Evangelicals about his Christian faith and Trump’s adherence to broad pro-life Christian principles and then spoke to fellow Mormons who voted for McMullin because of the Trump’s moral failings flirting with Biden and invoked a hero from their culture likening him to Trump. McMullin had an outsized appeal to the substantial minority LDS population in the East Valley of Phoenix and the rural north east of the state.

Nigel Farage

Farage has been a long time friend of Trump’s and gave a very powerful globally focused eulogy to his friend in his characteristic charismatic way that saw him be the driver of Brexit in the UK. He has the knack of succinctly and powerfully summing up Trump’s virtues.

Conclusions and thoughts

• Trump appeared to be much younger looking and trimmer in person. I suspect he lost weight during his bout with Covid. He oozed self-confidence and charisma and worked the crowd perfectly. He seemed relaxed and effortless, showing no visible signs of fatigue despite his most punishing schedule of rallies especially considering his age.
• The Republican campaign operation, as visible at this rally, was slick and consummately professional.
• Americans are patriotic and really respond to appeals to patriotism. The whole MAGA thing is an anathema to almost all other nations but Americans, raised on the founding story of uniqueness and greatness, seem to respond more to Presidents who tap into that cultural vein. His critics will call it populism and nationalism but for middle America, Trump strikes many pitch perfect notes.
• US elections involve the expenditure of eye popping sums that to us kiwis seem almost incomprehensible. A rally like this is a window into the sheer vast scale of a US Presidential election campaign.
• The rallies serve an important purpose above the more obvious ones like rallying the base, supporting down ballot candidates, and maintaining the candidate’s message momentum. The GOP detailed the research the campaign garnered from the rally sign ups and these are figures that do fluctuate from rally location to location and the figures are startling. 15% of attendees were Democrats and 30% were unaffiliated first time voters or voters who never voted in 2016 so will never show up in a Likely voter screen during polling. That means that almost 50% of Trump rally attendees are persuadable people. Based on an average attendance of 20,000 (many are more) that’s almost 10,000 potential new voters per rally. Assuming Trump seals the deal with only half that number, that’s 5,000 new votes he picks up per rally at a minimum. He will finish the race at 70 rallies so that’s 350,000 new voters, the vast bulk of which are in Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Arizona as he has made only single visits to Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska, and Iowa. That is more than his total winning margin in FL, WI, MI, and PA in 2016 so there is a steely electoral vote calculation in all the enormous cost and effort.

The coronavirus thrust the world and America into such a tumultuous and uncertain electoral environment, I would be foolish to make a prediction as to who will win but the atmosphere and electricity at this rally and the demeanor of Trump did not have the look and feel of a losing campaign. If the mainstream polls are out by the same margin they were in 2016 then Trump wins this running away. If they are accurate, then these rallies will be his last dramatic hurrah. Roll on November 3!

Stuff reports:

For the first time over 20,000 households are on the Government’s waitlist for public housing.

By the end of August 20,385 eligible households were on the waitlist for state or social housing, with over 18,000 ranked as “priority A” – the most needy.

This compared to 19,438 the month before and 13,167 in August 2019. The waitlist has more than trebled since 2017.

It has increased by 349% since Labour took office.

Stuff reports:

The Electoral Commission has ordered the Labour Party to declare the cheap rent it pays for its office in Petone as a donation. …

Electoral Commission rules, published in the commission’s candidate’s handbook, say that goods and services received at a discounted rate are treated as donations.

The commission has said that the rule applies in this case, and the rent subsidy must now be declared as a donation.

This has been the law for well over a decade. Labour shouldn’t need an Electoral Commission ruling to do the right thing and disclose the sweetheart deal.

The Labour Party has also been making a healthy profit of the electorate office. Stuff also revealed that it had recently been subletting the office to the local Labour MP for $6000.

Parliamentary Service pays the rent for MPs, meaning it pays the Labour Party $6000 of which $1500 is passed on to the NZPFU in rent, with Labour pocketing the difference.

Parliament’s rules allow such subletting arrangements. For the purpose of Parliament, the party is just another commercial property company renting office space to an MP.

It’s a clear conflict of interest. The Labour Party is making a huge profit by subletting it to their own MP, so they can use the money from the taxpayer to fund her campaign.

The Stuff story on Labour’s plans to repeal the three strikes law is a great example of an unbalanced story. Here’s what struck me about it:

• The main example used from the thousands who have had one or more strikes, is the one about the guy given seven years for grabbing a prison guard’s bottom. No examples about serious rapists and bashers who are in prison for longer due to it
• The other example just quotes a Judge saying he thought the sentence as too long, and omits that the person has six convictions for serious violent or sexual offending
• Quotes two opponents of the law, and only David Seymour in defence. No attempt presumably for comment from Sensible Sentencing Trust
• Ignores data that fewer violent offenders have gone on to reoffend since three strikes came into force