The Guardian reports:

Andrew Neil has quit the BBC to launch a new right-leaning opinionated rolling news channel which aims to start broadcasting early next year as a rival to the public broadcaster and Sky.

GB News, which has drawn comparisons with Fox News, promises to serve the “vast number of British people who feel underserved and unheard” by existing television news channels, explicitly pitching itself into the middle of the culture war.

Neil said: “We’ve seen a huge gap in the market for a new form of television news … GB News is the most exciting thing to happen in British television news for more than 20 years. We will champion robust, balanced debate and a range of perspectives on the issues that affect everyone in the UK, not just those living in the London area.”

It is no secret that the vast majority of broadcasters lean left, and centre right people often feel alienated from them as they often have a culture of left and woke viewpoints.

In response to this you have Fox News in the US, GB News in the UK and Sky News in Australia.

One day I hope we will have the same in New Zealand. There is definitely a market for it.

TVNZ has released results from the latest ONCB poll on voting intentions for the two referendums.

Cannabis Legalisation

• Support 35% (-5% from June)
• Oppose 53% (+4%)

End of Life Choice

• 64% support (-1% from Feb)
• 25% oppose (nc)

Will be interesting to see how things change during the final four weeks.

Stuff reports:

Chinese President Xi Jinping says his country will aim to stop adding to the global warming problem by 2060.

Xi’s announcement during a speech on Tuesday (local time) to the UN General Assembly is a significant step for the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

Calling for a “green revolution”, Xi said the coronavirus pandemic had shown the need to preserve the environment.

“Humankind can no longer afford to ignore the repeated warnings of nature,” he said.

Citing the Paris Agreement that he and former US President Barack Obama helped forge in 2015, Xi said his country would raise its emissions reduction targets with “vigorous policies and measures”.

“We aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,” he said.

This is a welcome move, but there are two big caveats.

The first is that China is still saying they will have emissions increase for the next ten years.

The more important issue though is how can you trust the Chinese Government to fairly report emissions?

Without an independent public service, the stats produced by the Government lack rigor.

An academic article published this week finds:

We find that freedom of discussion in particular is substantially associated with less terrorism and argue that freedom lowers the risk of terror due to two types of mechanisms: (1) more freedom of expression makes it easier for the police and intelligence agencies to effectively gather information on potential terrorists and targets, and (2) freedom of expression works as an outlet for displeased citizens through which they can openly express their discontent instead of resorting to terror.

You don’t trade off freedom for security. In fact it isn’t a trade off. Less freedom makes you less secure.

I’ve compiled this table showing the average of the polls 40 days before a US presidential election (from 538) and the actual result in terms of popular vote.

In 2012 and 2016 the popular vote didn’t shift that much in the last 40 days.

In 2008 Obama went from a narrow lead to a large lead.

In 2000 and 2004 Bush’s lead shrank in the last 40 days.

Clinton in both elections had a huge lead 40 days out, but halved by the election.

What is interesting in 2020 is how little movement there is. The smallest the gap has been since May is 6.1% and the largest is 9.6%.

But if anything can give Trump a second term, the Democrats promising to stack the Supreme Court by adding on additional Justices could do it.

A compelling post by Todd Muller on the panic attacks he suffered while National Party leader. Great to see him being so open about what happened, as it will help many others who have mental health challenges to know they are not alone.

Stuff reports:

Tukituki MP Lawrence Yule is defending billboard and newspaper ads claiming he has secured funding for millions of dollars worth of infrastructure projects for Hawke’s Bay.

The Advertising Standards Authority has received two complaints relating to billboards dotted around Hastings that feature a picture of Yule alongside the words: “$500 million new build of Hawke’s Bay Hospital commencing 2025”.

The Authority was also investigating a complaint about a full-page newspaper ad in which Yule said he had “achieved a record $800 million commitment to infrastructure projects in the region.”

A real own goal by the (presumably Labour activist) person who complained. The complaints have been dismissed of course, but the complaint has led to the billboards getting publicity in most media outlets.

I think the reason Labour is so sensitive on this issue is that the Labour candidate is actually on the DHB Board, yet hasn’t managed to get Labour to commit to a new hospital, while Lawrence Yule has managed to get National to commit to one.

Newshub reports:

ACT leader David Seymour fears for freedom of expression after Jacinda Ardern confirmed plans to beef up hate speech laws if Labour is re-elected to power. …

Ardern confirmed on Thursday that Labour is keen to progress with beefing up hate speech laws if it wins another term in Government. 

“We do have within our legislation in New Zealand provision that deal with hate speech, discrimination around people’s identities, but religion hasn’t been included in that. My view is that does need to change,” she said. 

“I just think in a modern New Zealand everyone would agree that no one should be discriminated against for their religion and so it makes sense that we add this to the other suite of things we say is just not OK to discriminate people over.”

The Prime Minister is either ignorant of the existing Human Rights Act, or is trying to mislead people.

It is already illegal to discriminate against someone on the basis of “religious belief”. S21(1) of the Human Rights Act 2001 states:

For the purposes of this Act, the prohibited grounds of discrimination are … religious belief

So the PM is misleading people by saying all she wants to do is ban discrimination on the basis of religion. That is already the law.

What Labour wants to do is expand S131(1) which states:

Every person commits an offence and is liable on conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 3 months or to a fine not exceeding $7,000 who, with intent to excite hostility or ill-will against, or bring into contempt or ridicule, any group of persons in New Zealand on the ground of the colour, race, or ethnic or national origins of that group of persons

Now this is the section Labour wants to expand. This is not about discrimination, but about speech that may “ridicule”.

The current law imposes a criminal penalty for speech which targets people on their colour, race or national origins. What they all have in common is that people have no say over them. You can’t choose your skin colour, your race or where you were born.

But your religion is a choice, just as your political opinion is. Both religious belief and political opinion are prohibited areas for discrimination, but that is very different to saying people should face jail time for speech that ridicules them.

I often ridicule the Church of Scientology and Destiny Church. Under Labour’s law change, I could be jailed for doing so.

If someone sets up a religion that proposes the death penalty for homosexuality, then I should be free to attack that religion vigorously.

At the end of the day a religious belief is not vastly different to a political belief. In fact in many countries religious beliefs are strongly intertwined with political opinions. So would Labour also criminalise speech that denigrates a political party?

The fact the Prime Minister has totally misrepresented what her party plans to do should concern people. The Human Rights Act already bans discrimination on religious belief.

Labour promised that it would have the entire Government fleet of 15,000 vehicles emissions free by 2025, so within eight years of taking office.

Their failure in this area is probably the high water mark for incompetence. Certain promises were always going to be difficult to achieve because you don’t control all the variables. But this is a simple promise to implement – you simply instruct agencies to start purchasing electric vehicles unless they would be unsuitable, and provide the extra funding for this.

After three years they have managed 108 electric vehicles, or 0.6% of the fleet. It is staggering that despite the Greens being in Government also, no one actually thought to implement, fund or monitor this promise. It shows how hollow their commitment is.

Stuff has a story about how terrible it is 83 year old Alf Vincent has not been given parole. It quotes at length his lawyer and provides almost no detail on why he has preventive detention except for a references to charges of indecent assault.

You need to google to find a previous story which notes:

He was charged with indecently assaulting 13 boys aged between 8 and 15 between 1963 and 1968, when he was 25, though he is believed to have sexually abused more than 100 boys. 

And the previous story noted:

He hasn’t become less sexualised in his old age. In fact his lawyer, Michael Starling, said he had become less discriminatory. 

“According to psychologist reports, despite his elderly age, he has a strong and persistent pattern of highly sexualised behaviour,” panel convener and former High Court judge Marion Frater said at his 2015 hearing.

This is all revent stuff that should have been in this latest story, rather than just reporting what his new layer says verbatim.

An interesting poll in Australia is highlighting how in times of crisis, people automatically back the Government, regardless of performance.

NZ has done relatively well with its Covid response, and we have seen polls showing Jacinda Ardern and the Government having 70% to 80% approve of the job they’re doing.

But you would expect that when the results have been bad, you would get a far worse result. Take Victoria.

They have had 771 die from Covid-19 compared to 53 in NSW and six in Queensland. Mismanaged has seen Covid-19 remerge and over 20,000 cases.

So you’d think Premier Daniel Andrews would have a miserable approval rating. But the latest poll found 70% approve and only 30% disapprove.

This shows how challenging the conditions are in New Zealand for the Opposition. The reality is that during a crisis, people back the Government so long as it is pro-active. Even 43% of Coalition voters back Andrews, despite almost 800 dead on his watch.

Creative NZ funds some pretty odd art projects. But in response to COVID-19 they’ve taken taxpayer-funded weirdness to new heights, with a new $16 million ‘Arts Continuity’ fund.

The Taxpayers’ Union has put together a list of highlights from the grants announced so far:

To research and write the first draft of a novel about male affection in hypermasculine spaces.
AWARDED: $13,000

Towards the composition, recording and production of music inspired by the psychogeography of the West Coast.
AWARDED: $34,900

To support the personnel costs and post-production editing for an art documentary based on Papua New Guinea tattoo practice and revival.
AWARDED: $27,500

Towards writing a children’s picture book (text only) about sustainable community activist Helen Dew.
AWARDED: $3,200

To create and develop an online publication, arts learning resources and musical content based on children’s drag theatre show, The Glitter Garden.
AWARDED: $18,000

Towards intensive artistic research and development.
AWARDED: $49,368

Towards the composition and instrumental arrangement of 10 songs for children, from ideas given by children.
AWARDED: $24,600

Towards writing poetry that explores indigeneity and love in the time of climate change.
AWARDED: $17,798

Towards writing a novel about the collapse of democracy in an association of alpaca breeders.
AWARDED: $26,000

Towards a dance concept video showcasing the impact Coronavirus has had on the New Zealand Chinese community.
AWARDED: $24,500

Towards the development of a first draft of a play that explores the menstrual cycle.
AWARDED: $16,766

Towards an Indigenised Hypno-soundscape to take you to the imagined worlds of our Kōrero Pūrākau.
AWARDED: $49,999

Towards development of a movement technique that guides and empowers the participants in becoming specialists in their own body.
AWARDED: $4,530

Towards 3 x hour-long live-streamed electronic music performances with live visual animations, from a kitchen in Paekakariki.
AWARDED: $47,703

Towards a wananga for Maori healing theatre practitioners.
AWARDED: $50,000

Towards composing and recording ten original compositions inspired by emotions felt during the Covid-19 lockdown.
AWARDED: $8,885

Towards development of a new body of work exploring modernism, feminism & queerness, with specific reference to the Otago region.
AWARDED: $30,089

Towards revision and editing of a sailing memoir.
AWARDED: $7,200

Towards a Māori, queer, young adult novel adaptation of Hamlet based on my innovative unproduced screenplay ‘Hamarete’.
AWARDED: $21,000

Towards designing new Māori typefaces for print and digital.
AWARDED: $22,110

Towards the writing, arranging and preproduction of music that forms a song-cycle from the suburban labyrinth.
AWARDED: $21,800

Someone ought to ask the Minister of Arts, Culture, and Heritage what she thinks.

A guest post by Lynne Mitchell:

The current halt of the projected Auckland airport rail link project is cause for tax payer celebration. Rail links to airports have proven a risky for ballooning project costs, years of building disruption and lack of early profitability.

For Auckland, the billions to have been spent on an airport rail link would be better utilised  improving journeys for Auckland area commuters.  By volume of total commuter traveling around cities, airports are not huge destinations.  Aside from tourists, airport workers and business passengers, most Aucklanders would only travel to the airport 3 or 4 times a year.   

Airport rail travel must be convenient and cost competitive or travellers will use alternative transport options.  Buses have advantages of a wider passenger coverage area and ride-sharing services such as Uber are growing. Sydney Airport now has dedicated ride share zones at domestic terminals costing $4 entry. Oakland and San Francisco International airports attribute declines in public transport rider numbers to the growth of ride-sharing companies.

Existing airport rail link projects provide useful insights. In Toronto, the Pearson Airport UP Express light rail link opened in 2015 with the Canadian $456 million cost  possible using some existing rail track and diesel engines. Despite Toronto’s population of 2.8 million, (compared to Auckland’s 1.5 million), the rail link struggled to attract passengers and initially the Provincial Government subsidy was Can.$52.26 each passenger ride! By slashing fares passenger numbers tripled and currently the Government subsidy is Can.$11 per ride. Between April 2016 and March 2017, the UP Express airport rail service cost the Province $68 million to operate. Critics of the Toronto airport rail link say that it is used mainly by tourists and business passengers and has diverted funds away from needed city transport projects.

Sydney airport’s rail link initially failed to meet passenger targets, despite efforts such as cancelling the Airport Express bus service, creating taxi surcharges and more expensive airport parking. In 2000 it went into receivership and after purchase in a receiver’s sale, Government assistance was used to boost passenger numbers by subsidising fares.

The Brisbane Airtrain also failed in early days to meet passenger targets but now returns a small profit. The privately owned Airtrain has monopoly access to provide public transport to Brisbane’s domestic and international terminals until 2036. In 2017, Sydney’s Airport Link and Brisbane Airtrain  carried approximately 17 per cent of the 50 million passengers that passed through both  airports.

The Melbourne airport rail link is set for completion in 2031 with a cost range of 8 to 13 billion. This despite a 2013 study by Public Transport Victoria finding that the prohibitive costs of a Melbourne airport rail link outweighed the benefits. Critics of the service have questioned the cost of moving mainly tourists from the existing 24-hour express Skybus on to rail.

The proposed Edinburgh Airport Rail Link (EARL) project was cancelled on cost grounds following a change of Government.  However in 2007, it was agreed to retain the project as a light rail line between the airport and Edinburgh city centre and the Edinburgh Trams service was launched in May 2014 as a single light rail route from central Edinburgh to the airport.  The trams were originally designed to run for 15 miles from Edinburgh Airport to Leith by 2011 at a cost of £375m but a truncated 9 mile service, stopping in the city centre, opened in 2014 at a cost of £776m with the final bill expected to be bill to about £1bn.  The service has the capacity to carry 21 million people a year but in 2015 the Edinburgh Tram (light rail) carried 5.3 million passengers, running at an average of 25 per cent capacity. It currently costs more and takes longer than the existing airport bus services

A public inquiry has been set up to investigate the huge problems dogging the Edinburgh airport light rail project, which as well as massively over budget, was completed five years later than planned, and caused major disruption for residents and visitors through years of works.

According to The Scotsman, 2017, “Passengers are complaining the airport tram continues to be slower than the bus, and some Edinburgh residents are so furious with the inconvenience it caused they refuse to get on it”. A new scheme in Scotland to build a multi-million-pound link to Glasgow Airport has hit the buffers after experts warned it would do more economic harm than good.

Globally, a well-connected airport rail link is expected to achieve up to 20% of passenger share where the population are already well used to using public transport.  In the United States just 6 of the 50 busiest airports are served by transit options that can save time in typical traffic and many airport rail links do not exceed 7%  of  traffic share

Successful airport rail links share some clear attributes.

• The airport rail link is part of an integrated city transport system with good connectivity to other transport services
• The airport rail link does not terminate at the airport and serves passengers and commuters going on to destinations via the airport stop.  
• The airport rail link connects passengers easily from dispersed suburban locations as well as from the central city.
• Total travel passenger time is efficient in terms of number of stops and the train timetable
• The rail link serves both air travellers and airport employees with operating times suitable for their needs.
• Ease of access for pedestrians at the airport and rail stations i.e. no steps, stairs or long walk distances
• Comfortable seats and room for luggage.
• Easier beginnings. The Heathrow Express was created after a less expensive airport rail service had first been established via the London Underground
• Attractive ride cost. With the average cab fare from Brisbane city to the airport at $47 and the Airtrain fare at $15 a seat, 58 per cent of travellers in groups choose to go by other means than Airtrain.
• The success of an airport rail link is related to the city having a sufficiently large population base.
• High public transport usage is indicative for a successful  airport rail link service with high car ownership a detrimental factor.

Expensive city transport projects need to be well future proofed. A new book, “The Driverless Car Revolution” makes the bold statement, “ Driverless cars are coming and they will change our lives. Pre-screened ridesharing options with driverless cars, door to door will be a new reality Most people will not choose to own these electric vehicles and traffic congestion will plummet”.

Airport rail links around the world have been described as being built mainly for nakedly political reasons, was this any different ?

The Coalition Agreement promised:

A $1b per annum Regional Development (Provincial Growth) Fund, including … planting 100 million trees per year in a Billion Trees Planting Programme

So they clearly promised to fund the planting of a billion trees through the PGF. How have they done?

After three years they are at 3.7% of their ten year target. Almost as big a fail as Kiwibuild.

They try to argue that trees planted by the private sector with no Government funding should be counted also, but that is not what the Coalition Agreement promised – it explicitly refers to funding of them via the PGF.

NewstalkZB reports:

Greens MP Julie Anne Genter today told a Newstalk ZB small business panel discussion the tax policy was a “bottom line” condition that must be met for her party to join into a second Coalition government with Labour.

This means if Labour needs Greens to govern, then there will be a tax on your KiwiSaver funds, your houses etc.

An interesting interview in The Spinoff with Judith Collins. One extract:

Judith Collins says there is a gulf between the way she is received and the response to prime minister Jacinda Ardern.

“I think that the way in which the centre right women are treated is entirely different from centre left women,” she says. Collins puts it down to “the view in which people see that women should be on the softer, caring side – not understanding where money comes from. 

“Well, yeah I do understand where money comes from. It comes from hard work, and other people’s often. I will not manage myself to conform to a view of women that we all need to be soft and cuddly.”

Her career backs up that self-assessment. Before she became an MP she was a lawyer, working across the commercial and tax fields, each still male-dominated, even more so when she entered them in the early 80s. Later, in government, Collins sought out portfolios – corrections, police, energy, revenue – which have seen her commanding areas of the state where the workforce is largely male. 

Her whole working life has existed in spaces designed for men, and some colleagues believe her ability to command those spaces is part of what makes her such a polarising figure. 

I think there is a lot of truth to this.

Stuff reports:

The National Party has promised to expand the ultrafast broadband network to cover 90 per cent of homes within 10 years if elected, bringing fibre broadband to about another 50,000 households.

The current UFB target is to cover 87 per cent of homes by 2022, after two previously expansions from the original goal – which was achieved – of providing 75 per cent coverage by this year.

This sums up the difference between National and Labour. Labour sets targets and fails miserably at them.

National in 2008 set a hugely challenging target of having fibre available to 75% of NZ homes. It got them ahead of schedule, so added in even more targets and we are now able to credibly say 90% of NZ homes will have fibre available.

Its new goal would be to ensure almost all of the remaining 10 per cent of homes could get uncapped 100 megabit per second broadband using copper or wireless technologies by 2030.

I live in a non fibre area. The wireless speeds are not too bad. Have got 85 Mb/s at times.

Labour communications spokesman Kris Faafoi said National’s policy was “very expensive” and it was not clear how the party could afford to pay for it.

Same way they paid for the original 75% – managed it for under $1 billion, which is less than 5% of the cost of Australia’s NBN.

Craig Young, chief executive of the Technology Users Association, previously known as the Telecommunications Users Association, gave National’s technology plan “7 out of 10”.

Its new 90 per cent UFB coverage goal would take fibre to more small settlements and offering 100Mbps uncapped plans to all RBI customers would be a “significant improvement” for them, he said.

“Rolling out fibre a bit further isn’t a bad commitment to make.

“The other side of that is it frees up capacity on other networks.”

An uncapped 100Mbps RBI target would be achievable “if you invested enough”, he said.

Another positive was its plan to offer 1000 tertiary scholarships annually to students from low decile schools to undertake science, technology, engineering and maths degrees, he said.

National has a great track record on UFB and RBI.

Assuming Trump gets to nominate and confirm RBG’s replacement, his judicial appointments will be:

• 3 Supreme Court Justices (out of 9)
• 53 Appellate Court Judges (out of 179)
• 159 District Court Judges (out of 678)
• 22 other judges

He is likely to end up with over 200 district court appointments, but the real impact is the number of Judges to the Appeal Courts as only 2% of their decisions get appealed.

Here’s the list of Presidents who have appointed the most Appellate Judges:

1. Reagan 83/8 years
2. Clinton 66/8 years
3. GW Bush 62/8 years
4. Carter 59/4 years
5. Obama 55/8 years
6. Trump 53/3.5 years
7. FDR 51/13 years
8. Nixon 51/8 years

So Trump has appointed the most proportional to his time in office.

The leading contenders for the Supreme Court are:

• Amy Comey Barrett, aged 48, 7th circuit
• Barbara Lagoa, aged 52, 11th circuit
• Allison Jones Rushing, aged 38, 4th circuit

I am going to profile each major area where Labour has failed to deliver on their promises. The first is their most major – Kiwibuild.

They promised 100,000 Kiwibuild homes in ten years. The black line shows the 100,000 target pro-rata over ten years. The brown line shows their actual detailed promise of how many by when and the red line their actual delivery.

But that is only the three years to date. Let’s look at the ten year picture.

Labour promised that by now they would be producing over 800 affordable homes a month. In reality they have not even managed that many in over two years.

The Kiwibuild policy was the biggest con job of our lifetimes. The promise of 100,000 affordable homes made young NZers think that there would be an affordable house just waiting for them to win in the ballot.