The Ministry officials decided that releasing immunisation rates by suburb would not be useful in their view, so they denied the requests for three years.
One of their excuses was that the had the data at meshblock level (which is so small, it could potentially identify individuals) and that it would be a huge project to convert it to suburb level.
This is unadulterated crap.
Something I do a lot of is use meshblock level data and group it at a higher level such as area units, suburbs, territorial authorities, electorates etc.
It takes me less than an hour. Sometimes less than 30 minutes. It is in fact very simple to do just in Excel using a formula.
So the Ministry of Health saying this would take significant collation and research is bullshit.
Read the whole article to see how appalling the Ministry of Health’s compliance with the OIA was.
By now, it’s well established that most of the arguments put forward by US President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in its challenge of the results of the 2020 election are baseless and highly speculative.
Even Trump allies, as The Washington Post reported, acknowledge the apparent futility of the effort.
Others have reasoned that there’s no harm in going through the motions, with one anonymous Republican official asking: “What’s the downside for humouring him” for a little while?
But as scenes in courtrooms across the country in recent days have shown, there is indeed a downside for those tasked with actually pursuing these claims. Repeatedly now, they have been rebuked by judges for how thin their arguments have been.
The most famous scene came in Pennsylvania, where a Trump lawyer strained to avoid acknowledging that their people were, in fact, allowed to observe the vote-counting process in Philadelphia.
As The Washington Post reported: “At the city’s federal courthouse on Thursday evening, attorneys for Trump asked a judge to issue an emergency order to stop the count, alleging that all Republican observers had been barred.
“Under sharp questioning from Judge Paul S Diamond, however, they conceded that Trump in fact had ‘a non-zero number of people in the room’, leaving Diamond audibly exasperated.
“‘I’m sorry, then what’s your problem?’ asked Diamond, who was appointed to the federal bench by President George W Bush. Denying Trump’s request, Diamond struck a deal for 60 observers from each party to be allowed inside.
“At one point on Friday afternoon, 12 Republican observers and five Democrats were watching the count, according to a ballot counter who was working.”
After that “non-zero” answer, Diamond pressed the Trump campaign lawyer to be more explicit – and he suggestively invoked their standing with the bar. “I’m asking you as a member of the bar of this court: Are people representing the plaintiffs in the room?” The lawyer responded more directly: “Yes.”
The lawsuits are propaganda, not actual serious litigation. They are being laughed out of courts everywhere and none of them are remotely capable of changing the result in a single state, let alone the overall result.
Another of the Trump team’s claims crumbled rather quickly in Georgia.
In Chatham County, as in Michigan, the Trump campaign cited supposed evidence that 53 late ballots might have been predated so they could be counted.
Except two witnesses they called acknowledged under oath that they didn’t know whether the ballots were received after the deadline. And two others for the local board of elections testified that they were, in fact, received on time.
Judge James Bass dismissed the case in a one-sentence, eight-word ruling, saying: “I’m denying the request and dismissing the petition” and abruptly adjourned the hearing.
He then elaborated in a written opinion: “The Court finds that there is no evidence that the ballots referenced in the petition were received after 7pm on election day, thereby making those ballots invalid. Additionally, there is no evidence that the Chatham County Board of Elections or the Chatham County Board of Registrars has failed to comply with the law.”
The common thread running through all of these is that Trump’s lawyers are regularly offering a significantly more watered-down version of Trump’s claims about rampant voter fraud – because they, unlike Trump, actually have to substantiate their claims.
And as these exchanges show, it’s a rather thankless task that can rather quickly land them on a judge’s bad side.
So not only was the claim without evidence, it was over a paltry 53 ballots.
Here’s the leads Biden has in each “contested” state:
Green Party co-leader James Shaw says the Government needs to use the levers it has to stop further over-heating in the housing market.
He said these levers could be taxes on capital gains and wealth.
His comments are either stupid or naive, or both.
Jacinda Ardern has ruled out both a CGT and a wealth tax – permanently. Not just in this term, but for so long as she is Prime Minister.
So calling on something that you have a 0.000% chance of achieving is stupid. Focus on things you can possibly acheive.
So long as the Government and councils artificially restrict land supply for housing and the Reserve Bank is printing money like they were Social Credit on steroids, house prices will keep rising.
On 9/11 Heather Penney was 26 years old. She was a pilot with the 121st Fighter Squadron in Washington DC. She was ordered to intercept and down United Flight 93 before it could reach DC and crash into a target.
Due to the urgency of the mission, there was no time to arm the plane. So she took off with her mission being to ram her plane into a jumbo jet, almost certainly killing herself also. It didn’t prove necessary as the brave passengers fought back against the hijackers and the plane crashed.
Penney was asked why she was willing to fly a kamikaze mission. Her reply is worth reflecting on:
Why? Because there are things in this world that are more important than ourselves. Freedom. The Constitution of the United States. Our way of life. Mom, baseball, apple pie; these things and so many more that make us uniquely American. We belong to something greater than ourselves. As complex and diverse and discordant as it is, this thing, this idea called America, binds us together in citizenship and community and brotherhood.
Wellington City councillors have voted in favour of selling and leasing land it owns at Shelly Bay.
The decision to sell passed by nine votes to six.
A meeting today on the contentious decision lasted more than seven hours, stretching late into the evening.
Tonight’s vote paves the way for a $500 million development featuring 350 homes to proceed.
In favour: Laurie Foon, Tamatha Paul, Nicola Young, Rebecca Matthews, Diane Calvert, Jenny Condie, Jill Day, Fleur Fitzsimons, Teri O’Neill
Not in favour: Sarah Free, Iona Pannett, Sean Rush, Malcolm Sparrow, Simon Woolf, Andy Foster
Tonight’s defeat is a bitter blow for Mayor Andy Foster, whose campaign was part-funded by the staunchly anti development Sir Peter Jackson and Dame Fran Walsh.
I’m very pleased with this outcome. A no vote would have meant Shelly Bay remains a derelict run down former Air Force base with a cafe as the only major attraction there. The buildings are a horrible eyesore.
The Cassels development looks great and exciting. Not only 350 homes but cafes, bars, restaurants and shops. Even a hotel. Plus walkways and green space. It is likely you’ll have water taxis between Queen’s Wharf and Shelly Bay.
Māori Party co-leader Rawiri Waititi is not surprised Labour wants to scrap the rule that brought in their second MP because it would “remove the only true and independent Māori voice from Parliament”.
The rule is known as ‘coat-tailing’. It allows political parties to bring in extra MPs without having to cross the 5 percent threshold if they win an electorate. The number of additional list MPs is based on the percentage of the party’s vote.
The Māori Party was able to bring in an additional MP thanks to this rule. Waititi won the Waiariki electorate from Labour and he was able to bring in co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer based on the party winning 1.2 percent of the vote.
Waititi is not surprised Labour wants to get rid of the coat-tail rule because it allowed the Māori Party more representation in Parliament, and Labour currently holds all but one of the seven Māori electorates.
“Of course Jacinda Ardern supports getting rid of the coat-tailing rule in Parliament because this arrangement would remove the only true and independent Māori voice from Parliament,” he told Newshub.
Yep Labour and the Greens want to make it harder for the Maori Party to gain List MPs.
Judith Collins has announced her new lineup. Let’s look at who is facing off in the key portfolios.
PM: Collins vs Ardern
Finance: Bayly & Woodhouse vs Robertson
Housing: Willis vs Woods
Covid-19 response: Bishop vs Hipkins
Education: Goldsmith vs Hipkins
Health: Reti vs Little
Justice: Bridges vs Faafoi
Transport: Woodhouse vs Wood
Will be interesting to see how they all fare next year. I feel a bit sorry for Faafoi as he has to front for repealing three strikes against a former crown prosecutor!
Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has urged the European Union to respond to ‘political Islam’ and called for an end to the ‘misunderstood tolerance’ in the wake of the terrorist attack in Vienna which left four people dead.
Mr Kurz called on countries across Europe to ‘focus much more strongly on the problem of political Islam in the future’ and said its ideologies were ‘dangerous’ for European freedoms and values.
The common name for political Islam is Islamism. Islamists don’t just see their religion as a code of behavior that adherents should voluntarily adhere to, but they want to see it made mandatory through the political system.
His comments come after it was revealed the Vienna gunman Kujtim Fejzulai, 20, had been jailed in April 2019 because he wanted to travel to Syria to join ISIS but was later granted early release in December under juvenile law.
Fejzulai duped officials in a 2019 trial by saying he had been led astray by the ‘wrong mosque’ and then convinced ‘de-radicalisation’ counsellors he had renounced his ISIS ideals as part of a parole deal.
However Mr Kurz went on to describe the decision to release Fejzulai- who was shot dead by police on Monday evening – as ‘definitely wrong’.
‘If he had not been released then the terror attack would not have been possible,’ Mr Kurz told public broadcaster ORF on Tuesday.
Was he monitored after release?
The Chancellor’s comments come as the first victim of the Vienna terror attack was revealed to the public.
Nexhip Vrenezi, 21, was one of the four people killed by gunman Fejzulai in the Austrian capital on Monday night.
Vrenezi, a young Muslim of Albanian descent, was shot four times when he left a pub to have a cigarette on the last night before Austria’s new lockdown rules came into force. …
His former teacher Helene Fuchs-Moser told BILD: ‘It’s so sad. I am shocked. I still remember him very well. He was a fun-loving, nice guy. And yes, a Muslim [himself].’
He prayed for peace and opposed the use of his religion by fundamentalists.
Nexhip was also a big fan of British boxer Ricky Hatton, played football and dreamed of owning a fast car like a Porsche.
He had just returned home from a six-month stint with the Austrian army and was planning his future career and considering medicine.
Friends paid tribute today to Nexhip with one saying: ‘He was a good person, the type of friend you needed to speak to every day because he was good for your soul.
‘He has gone and many of his friends are crying because he would have done the world so much good like being a doctor or something.
‘He and his younger brother were inseparable and played Minecraft and yugijo together. We are trying to help him now with love and all be his big brother. But Nexhip’s life has been wasted by this pig.’
Another friend Maya Uruz, 20, said: ‘Many girls had a crush on him because he was a gentleman. He was very popular, a very kind person.’
Vrenezi sounds like a poster child for integration. So sad he was killed by this extremist.
Shane Reti has been elected as the new deputy leader of the National Party, in a meteoric rise up the party’s ranks.
He was elected at a caucus meeting that also reconfirmed the party’s confidence in Judith Collins as leader, despite the devastating election loss. …
“I’m delighted by Dr Shane Reti’s appointment. He is a hard-working, intelligent MP with all the skills needed to be an effective leader. His detailed examination and prosecution of the Government’s handling of Covid-19 helped improve the response for New Zealanders,” Collins said in a statement.
“Dr Reti’s knowledge and history working in the health sector will be an asset as Parliament deals with the impact of Covid-19. His experience will be invaluable to me as deputy leader and I’m looking forward to working closer with him.”
Reti, a former GP in Northland, entered Parliament in 2014 after almost a decade overseas working and teaching at Harvard.
With Covid-19 likely to remain a big focus for at least another year, having Dr Reti as Deputy Leader will be very useful to National.
Singer Katy Perry has faced a backlash from fans on Twitter after posting about reconciling with family members who voted for Donald Trump in the US election.
“The first thing I did when the presidency was called is text and call my family members who do not agree and tell them I love them and am here for them. #FamilyFirst. Call your family today. Happy Sunday,” she wrote, concluding with a love-heart emoji.
Twitter users didn’t hold back in their replies, calling Perry out for her ‘white privilege’ and for being ‘tone-deaf’.
They really are crazy. They’re offended because Katy Perry said you should still love family members who voted differently to you.
By 2024 they will have probably converted Katy to a Republican!
One of the crucial hallmarks of democratic nations is the integrity of their election process. If the citizens cannot trust the voting system to be fair and accurate then any government elected under a shroud of election irregularities will be considered illegitimate in the eyes of the voters for the opposing candidate. Major election fraud is the hallmark of unstable countries whose leaders engage in dictatorial, illegal, and unconstitutional behaviour – think Zimbabwe, Iran, Venezuela, the various ‘Stans’ that were part of the Soviet Union, various African nations, the list is long and inglorious. On the question in my title hinges the result of the 2020 US Presidential Election. As things stand right now, media networks have called the election for Biden on the basis of provisional wins in key states. BREAKING NEWS: likely as a consequence of the suits filed in Federal Court in Pennsylvania today by the Trump campaign, Real Clear Politics, the respected news and poll aggregation site, has WITHDRAWN its call for Pennsylvania in favour of Biden and placed it back into the Undecided category. This drops Biden below the 270 mark needed to claim victory. [EDIT] Since writing, CNN has withdrawn Arizona and Georgia from Biden into Undecided so now he has only 279 ECVs – they are keeping their call for Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign allege widespread voter fraud in six key states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada and they are challenging the preliminary results in various courts and Trump himself is refusing to concede. It needs to be pointed out that network projections of a winner is not in any way an official result. These are certified by key officials in each state and usually not until some time in December.
The precedent for a challenged Presidential election outcome is the 2000 election when networks projected Al Gore had won Florida making him President but the Bush campaign challenged the Florida result and the court challenges wound up in the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) where the court ruled in favour of Bush in Bush v Gore stopping the count that was continuing only in Democrat heavy counties authorized by the county courts and then the then left leaning Florida Appellate and Supreme Courts. SCOTUS ruled that the selective counting breached the Equal Protection Clause of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment. The final result was that Bush carried Florida by just under 600 votes and he was elected President but was considered illegitimate by Democrats who felt robbed of the election because the counting was stopped. For the record, a consortium of news organisations (all mainstream and not conservative) paid for all the FL ballots to be counted and Bush still won by just over 500 votes.
Network election gurus have justified their calling the race for Biden on the basis of his leads in the key states that they considered insurmountable given the track record of normal mandated or requested ballot recounts. Right now, the Biden leads are:
Arizona 14,000
Nevada 38,000
Pennsylvania 43,000
Georgia 11,000
Wisconsin 20,000
The media and Democrats maintain that either there is no voter fraud or that the fraud is minor and of a size that cannot reverse Biden’s leads. The Trump campaign (and some Republicans) maintain that the fraud is of such a scale that Biden’s leads can be overcome thus ensuring Trump’s re-election. This essay looks at the 23 types of election fraud in the US, looks at some statistical anomalies in this election and then looks at each of the five most affected states and some specifics of what the Trump campaign are doing.
TYPES OF ELECTION FRAUD
For each one of these types of voter fraud, I will link to actual examples in the 2020 election except for a couple that are anecdotal on social media.
Throwing away Trump ballots: These actions are alleged to have been undertaken by either postal workers or polling clerks at polling stations. Some have bragging videos on social media.
Legitimately registered voters who voted on election day, were properly verified and ID checked and yet their ballots are not showing up on the electronic vote tracking website as having been counted. This allegation only exists in states that bar code every ballot and offer an online vote tracking system. I have friends in Arizona who say there is no official record of their vote despite doing all that is required to vote.
Collecting of blank mail-in ballots, opening them filling them out for Biden then resealing them and submitting them for counting.
‘Losing’ ballots that were favourable to Trump or Trump friendly military ballots found in a dumpster. 8,000 military votes were ‘lost’ in Georgia.
Ballot harvesting. This practice is illegal in almost all states. It is where operatives from a party go around and assist people in how to vote and offer to then take their ballot to the polling station. In Minneapolis, MN Project Veritas caught an operative for Ilhan Omar’s campaign who had illegally collected over 300 ballots all filled out in favour of Biden and Democrats.
Voting machines switching votes. Of the various types of election fraud, this is one of the hardest to detect and prove.
Allowing into the official ballot count ballots that were received after the legal deadline set out in the relevant State election legislation. Of all the types of election fraud, this will be the one the Trump campaign’s lawyers will focus the most on.
Manipulating United States Postal Service date stamps to backdate late received ballots. This is a way to turn an illegal late ballot into a legally validated ballot as in no. 7 above. Postal workers in Erie, PA have alleged via affidavit that they were instructed to do this by their supervisor.
Rejected ballots called over-ballots. This is another voting machine anomaly and various voters in Arizona have attested to this happening. This happens when a manually completed in-person ballot on election day is fed into the ballot counting machine and the machine malfunctions and the poll clerk overrides the malfunction to force it through to make it seem to the voter that the vote has been counted when in fact it has been rejected. This often falls more into the category of honest mistake rather than an attempt at outright fraud.
However, a fraudulent version of no. 9 is when poll workers knowingly guide voters to a machine known to be faulty to deliberately cause that vote to not be counted. Various people on Facebook have described being guided to one particular machine by poll station staff in a heavily Republican district despite there being no crowds or queues and there being a wall of empty machines to process the ballot.
Illegally curing ballots. Curing a ballot is when a voter comes in without ID or proof of current address to match the address where they are registered, and the ballot cannot be counted as legal until these mistakes are fixed. Poll workers have been caught on camera faking signatures, addresses and ID in an attempt to cure the ballot.
Selectively curing ballots such as only allowing this practice in Democrat heavy counties and not allowing it in Republican heavy counties. This has formed the basis of the latest Trump campaign lawsuit in PA.
Not purging the voter rolls of dead people and allowing them to vote year after year. There have been numerous instances of this.
Counting the ballots of people who’ve left a state but still illegally voted in their previous state of residence.
Fabricating in-state proof of residence to allow an illegal ballot to be counted.
Taking rejected mail-in ballots and trying to use provisional ballots (only to be used for people unable to cast an in-person ballot on election day because of a recent address change) to fix the errors after the receipt of mail in ballot deadline was passed.
Computer glitches that always seem to go in one direction, benefitting Biden and not Trump. Of particular concern is vote collation software from Dominion Voting Systems that was used by 30 states to track and add votes.
Refusing entry to authorized party poll watching representatives so that election day voting and then the subsequent count goes on only being watched by Democrat representatives. This enables some of the other fraudulent activities to go on undetected. Variations on this are blocking counting tables from the view of Republican poll watchers or allowing them entry but forcing them to stand so far back as to make it difficult to view what is going.
Mass sending of absentee ballots to everybody on the voter roll. This is not fraud per se, but it has enabled fraud on a much larger scale than before. Mail-in ballots have been an integral part of voting in many US states. The difference in these states is that voters REQUEST a mail-in ballot and so it comes to a secure and known address. Mass posting of mail-in ballots to all voters on a voter roll means multiple ballots coming to addresses due to not updated voter addresses due to deliberately left messy voter rolls. These unused mail-in ballots get thrown out and then are collected by ballot harvesters.
Voters who never requested a mail in ballot and go to vote in person only to find that someone had requested a mail-in ballot for them to another address and voted for them, so they were unable to vote.
Rest home fraud. Reports are coming out of PA that a single nursing home ordered over 1,000 ballots and that almost all were for Biden and almost none had any other candidate’s circle filled in i.e. no under ballot votes.
STATISTICAL ANOMOLIES UNIQUE TO 2020
This election has thrown up some statistical anomalies that may be a pointer to vote fraud.
Comparison between the 2020 election night tallies and tallies a few days later in battleground but Republican run states like Ohio and Florida were little altered because those states have much more robust voting procedures and counting oversight.
Comparison between election night tallies and tallies a few days later were little different in the key states in 2016 whereas in 2020, the vote tallies in several key battleground states all shifted dramatically in Biden’s favour after a few days of counting. Some of this will be attributable to Biden leading with mail-in ballots but the leads leading up to election day were of the order of say 55/45 or 60/40. Then the results of the late night dumps in MI, WI and PA were massively lopsided to the point of being outside the so-called Benford curve that the US State Department election monitors use in monitoring overseas elections. The curve looks at the standard partisan split of votes throughout the ballot time frame and uses standard deviation analysis. Examination of all candidates on the ballot in these three states except Biden fit the Benford norm whereas as the pattern of Biden late votes are 2, 3, 4 and in one case (some wards near Milwaukee) 5 standard deviation points off the norm, a statistical impossibility in a normal fair election and thus only possible by fraudulent means.
Large new batches of votes would come in and 100% of the votes were for Biden which is statistically impossible if the votes were all legitimate. Polling guru Nate Silver posts this on Twitter with no comment as to its real world impossibility.
Turnouts in key Democrat heavy cities and counties in MI, WI and PA not only shattered all records but have been proven to be statistically virtually impossible by statisticians who have examined decades of prior voting patterns in these areas.
In 57 mostly rural counties in Wisconsin, Biden underperformed from Obama in 2012 by as much as 28%. If you factor in population losses, that number rises to 41%. In another 16 counties he underperformed by single digits. Only in 10 counties did he overperform Obama but adjusted for population loss since 2012 in only 3 counties did he over perform Obama. Trump overperformed from Obama’s 2012 turnout in all but 4 counties. This means that Trump overperformed in 95% of counties and Biden underperformed in 80%. In Washington County (suburban Milwaukee) Biden overperforms over Obama by 15% and yet in neighbouring Milwaukee County he under performs by 5% – that’s a massive 20% swing in voter behaviour across just 20 miles (30kms). The same massive discrepancy happens in Dane County (City of Madison) a huge 20% increase over Obama and yet all the surrounding counties, he underperforms by 2 – 12%. Again, a swing of 20 – 30% across a few miles! This same bizarre and statistically highly unusual anomaly continues in Waukesha County where the overperformance compared to surrounding rural counties ranges from 15 to an improbably 43%! Ditto Ozaukee County. Trump’s results follow a normal distribution pattern you’d expect of a Republican candidate. Across these 5 counties, Biden beats Obama by 83,000 votes and yet he only leads Trump by 20,000 statewide. Furthermore, turnout in these 5 counties is a whopping 92 – 95% compared to 67% in 2016 – a statistically impossible improvement without widespread fraud.
The number of votes cast for President for a particular party does not always mean that votes for the same party’s senate race will be the same. Mostly there is what is called the under vote phenomenon as down ballot voter enthusiasm wanes. However, it is common for Senate incumbents to out-poll the same party’s Presidential nominee. Let’s look at some races on both sides of the isle – the determiner here is that the winning candidate for President is compared with the winning candidate for Senate of the same party.
Florida 2016 Trump 4,617,886
Rubio 4,835,191
Difference -5%
Ohio 2016 Trump 2,841,005
Portman 3,118,567
Difference – 10%
Iowa 2008 Obama 818,240
Harkin 930,514
Difference -13%
Michigan is the most instructive comparison because it involves seemingly wining Democrat candidates for President and Senate in both 2008 and 2016. The turnout differences makes the raw vote swing meaningless but the percentage over and under swing is significant – an almost 10% swing from the status quo of the Senate candidate doing better than the Presidential candidate to Biden scoring above the Senate candidate.
Michigan 2020 Biden votes 2,794,853
Peters votes 2,722,724
Difference +72,129 (+3%)
Michigan 2008 Obama votes 2,867,680
Levin votes 3,033,550
Difference -6%
Today the Trump campaign claimed the undervote of 42,000 in Arizona was two times the usual and 70 – 115,000 in Michigan a staggering three times more than usual. It was 98,000 in Pennsylvania, 80,000 in Georgia and 62,000 in Wisconsin, all well above historical norms.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE CONTESTED STATES?
I have left Michigan off the list as the winning margin of 150,000 will be likely a too steep a hill to overcome, however the RNC have filed in Federal District Court in Detroit proof of some 2,800 incidents of voter fraud that they plan to insist be investigated.
Networks show Trump on only 214 Electoral College votes but Alaska is 2:1 for Trump so he should pick up 3 there and North Carolina has a mandatory pause on counting until November 14 but Trump is well ahead with fewer fraud allegations being made so he should snare those 15 ECVs making 232. Trump’s path to victory lies in overturning the counts in the following states. He can get there with various combinations of 3 (with PA) or 4 (without PA)
ARIZONA (11) – 14,000 lead
Biden’s lead continues to shrink as ballots are slowly counted in Arizona. The regular count may yet give it to Trump. If not, the mandatory recount will focus on mail-in ballots that went more for Biden so any rejection of improper ballots will more disproportionately come off his total.
The Trump campaign and the RNC have sued Maricopa County Elections for the problems of the over vote machines mentioned in point no. 9 above and for the fact that the disenfranchised voters have yet to have a proper ballot be done to make up for the election day mistake.
GEORGIA (16) – 11,000 lead
Georgia has a very thorough re-canvas procedure and this time Republican inspectors, sometimes absent in the Democrat heavy countries in and around Atlanta in the initial count, will be present to challenge invalid votes and have them discarded.
Apparently counting in Democrat heavy Fulton County ended at 1030pm on election night and all poll watchers of both parties were asked to leave but the count recommenced in secret at 1am with no Republican poll watchers invited back. Anomalies like this will be challenged in court cases soon to be filed.
There are over 8,000 military ballots still left outstanding in GA, ballots that normally heavy favour Trump.
NEVADA (6) – 38,000 lead
The Nevada GOP have made a criminal referral to the Department of Justice for voter fraud of 3,000 out of state residents voting illegally in Nevada but this number likely will expand to 6,000.
Nevada’s voting is dominated by Clark County incorporating metro Las Vegas and the County election supervisor is a Democrat who refuses to investigate allegations of voter irregularities that run the gambit of the list above until after counting finishes. This is being litigated.
PENNSYLVANIA (20) – 43,000 lead
There have been multiple issues in multiple counties in PA and various of the fraudulent activities listed above were prevalent. Philadelphia has been a hotbed of voting irregularities for decades.
Republican PA House speaker has called for a full audit of votes before certification.
The lawsuit filed by the Trump campaign and RNC against the PA Secretary of State and 7 selected Democrat heavy counties in Federal District Court today alleges breaches of the Equal Protection Clause for selectively allowing rejected ballots to be cured in Democrat heavy counties and yet preventing such conduct in Republican heavy counties. The unequal treatment extended to allowing Democrats to view the count in GOP heavy counties and preventing Republican observers from overseeing the count in Democrat heavy counties. In Allegheny County (covering metro Philadelphia), a staggering 682,000 mail-in ballots were allowed to be counted with NO Republican observers present.
Late ballots: this is the subject of the lawsuit filed by the Republican Attorney Generals Association with 10 State Attorney Generals filing amicus (support) briefs. PA State law stipulates that mail-in ballots must be receive before 8pm on the day of the election. The PA Democratic Party filed suit in October seeking a 3 day extension of this rule and the PA Supreme Court upheld this rule change. The GOP appealed to SCOTUS claiming that only the legislature can change election law, not a court but SCOTUS was tied 4 – 4 due to the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg and so the lower court ruling was left to stand but Chief Justice Roberts, sensing this would be a likely post-election flashpoint, instructed the PA election officials to separate out all ballots received after election day and NOT count them. It turns out that because PA election officials (the PA Secretary of State is a Democrat as is the Governor) failed to abide by the SCOTUS segregation ruling, the GOP had to get Justice Alito to reiterate the segregation ruling only days ago. We are talking about 400,000 late received ballots the majority of which went to Biden and a large number of them were counted when it may turn out that a subsequent case that likely will end up at SCOTUS, now with a 5 – 4 true conservative balance (Roberts has become a swing vote), could rule that the late ballots already counted must come off the vote totals for each candidate. Some estimates put the Biden/Trump split on these ballots at 90/10 and so any disallowed late ballots will disproportionately affect Biden’s total.
100,000 people voted in person on election day (voters who voted in person on election day favoured Trump heavily) whose votes were held aside as provisional ballots to be counted later.
Biden’s margin is just above the automatic recount mechanism however the PA Legislature is controlled by the GOP in both Houses and they can order a recount as can SCOTUS.
WISCONSIN (10) – 20,000 lead
Wisconsin is another state that Trump was leading handily on election night then suddenly at 3am next morning, 100,000 Biden votes were dumped into the system giving Biden a narrow lead. Wisconsin’s recount rules are very stringent, and the tight margin will trigger an automatic re-canvas. The ability of a WI re-canvas to flush out illegal votes was most dramatically illustrated in a 2019 special election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. On election night the Democratic candidate was ahead by 350 and after the recanvas, the Republican held the seat by 7,000 votes thanks to the re-canvas.
The heavily Democrat counties near the city of Milwaukee and Madison (featured earlier) with absurdly high voter turnout that are statistically impossible will be closely scrutinised. Democrats claim this came from same day registration allowed on election day, but the WI law requires that same day registration voters have to have a valid photo ID, a verified signature, AND a witness. Anything fraudulent and not meeting WI electoral law will be flushed out in the re-canvas.
CONCLUSION
There is no denying that election fraud has occurred and across the many of the types of fraud detailed. The crucial question is how large the problem is, i.e. is it large enough to reverse Biden’s leads in key states and then what are the remedies available and will they be effective. No one knows the answer until these things are fully litigated through the hierarchy of courts.
Disallowing of illegally cast ballots. This is by far the biggest thrust of the litigation of the Trump campaign. If proper vote audits can be conducted and various categories of ballots can be proven to be illegally cast, a court can order those ballots to be taken off the vote total. As stated earlier, a large number of late ballots were cast in the PA election and it is unknown at this time as to how many are now part of the official count and how many can and will be found to be invalid. Because Pennsylvania has the largest number of Electoral College votes of the contested states then all challenges filed by the Trump campaign and the GOP will likely be litigated all the way to SCOTUS. As stated earlier, SCOTUS has already weighed in on the PA situation but did not decide in favour of the PA Republican Party to rule on the legality of late ballots rather they kicked for touch and asked for these ballots to be set aside. That the PA Secretary of State did not entirely do this as instructed prompting the Alito order a few days ago, may send a signal to SCOTUS that the Commonwealth is not taking its attempt at adjudicating this tricky issue seriously and they may be less favourable in a subsequent ruling on the crucial deciding case that surely will soon appear on their docket.
State Legislatures ultimately write each State’s electoral laws and they formally appoint the States’ Electors when the Electoral College meets. In AZ, GA, PA, MI and WI, each chamber of their Legislatures is controlled by the Republican Party. Already a joint Michigan House and Senate Committee has met in an emergency session to evaluate aspects of voting irregularities including going as far as issuing subpoenas to state election officials to “please explain”. If a Legislature decides that the State’s Presidential election was too fraught with fraud issues and it is not possible to get to the bottom of the irregularities in time, they could declare the election null and void thus subtracting those Electoral College votes from Biden or declare Trump the winner and direct the winning party’s electors to cast the state’s Electoral College votes.
In the unlikely event of a tie of 269 ECVs each (only possible if Trump wins PA, NV and AZ and Biden holds GA and WI) then the vote is sent to the House of Representatives and each State’s delegation is allowed one vote and the delegation is required to vote in line with the party that holds the majority of Congressional seats in that State. Whilst the Democrats currently hold the House 215 to Republicans 196, Republicans hold a majority of House seats in 30 states and Democrats only in 19 (Michigan is tied 7 each).
The media have anointed Biden the winner and some predictable Republicans have decided it’s all over. Most world leaders have assumed that Trump can’t win and are calibrating accordingly. The hill does seem steep to climb but Trump has faced many seemingly career ending battles and prevailed so it would be foolish to count him out. He is motivated to fight on and the apparatus of the Republican Party in all the key states, the RNC and various popular key GOP Senators are keen to see the appeals, audits and recounts play themselves out and money is no object. If the election fraud is as widespread as some fear, then Trump could flip enough states back to him and eke out 270+ EC votes. If the appeals fail then it will be harder for Biden’s opponents to cry they were robbed of power illegitimately. Frankly, if Democrats have nothing to hide and genuinely believe that Biden won without any vote tampering of any substance, then they should welcome these reviews and audits and patiently wait it out but they seem impatient to move on and have pooh poohed all the challenges. Trump has said if all legal avenues to turn the result his way fail; he will concede and do so graciously.
I will end with this last little nugget. The two most controversial of Trump’s three Supreme Court nominees (Brett Kavanagh – subjected to an unprecedent storm of eventually unprovable allegations of sexual assault and Amy Coney Barrett – controversially confirmed mere days from the election), both were an integral part of George W Bush’s legal team who successfully fought and won Bush v Gore that secured George W Bush the 2000 election!
California is seen as the liberal capital of America, but while they voted 65% for Biden, there were some pretty conservative outcomes on state referenda:
Rejected by 48% to 52% higher commercial property taxes to fund education
Rejected by 44% to 56% repealing a ban on affirmative action
Rejected by 45% to 55% allowing 17 year olds to vote in primaries
Rejected by 40% to 60% expanding rent control
Approved by 59% to 41% that Uber and Lyft drivers are contractors not employees
Rejected by 44% to 56% ending cash bail
Voting to uphold a ban on affirmative action was perhaps the most surprising result.
State: Mitt Romney Treasury: Lawrence Summers Defence: Pete Buttigieg Attorney-General: Geoffrey Berman Education: Michelle Rhee Homeland Security: Tammy Duckworth Trade: Paul Ryan DNI: David Petraeus
Yesterday afternoon I did a quick tweet on what would be my dream team for the Biden Cabinet. Most of my tweets get maybe a dozen responses.
This tweet has had over 10,000 replies and retweets!
Within minutes of making it I was getting replies from Democrats in the US telling me how I was wrong. And as they replied, their followers saw it and I’ve now had over 10,000 responses.
One of the things that has puzzled me is how 70 million Americans could vote for Donald Trump. Having now had 10,000 angry Democrats hurl abuse at me, I now understand why so many people voted for Trump despite his manifest flaws. They are the GOP’s best weapon.
To be fair to those responding, not all have been angry. In fact I haven’t even read 2% of the responses. But there has certainly been a lot of abuse. There has also been some excellent humour as people do their own sarcastic dream teams with additions such as Thanos as Secretary of Defence.
Something which has amused me is that this was clearly a tweet of my personal preferences. It wasn’t me saying who I think Biden would appoint, or who I think is in the running. It was purely my personal preferences. But 10,000+ people felt the need to say they disagree in various ways.
As it has got so much attention, I thought I would expand on why I chose the people I did.
State: Mitt Romney
Romney was the candidate in 2012 who said Russia was the No 1 foe of the US, and everyone (including Obama) scoffed and said he was stuck in the 1980s. Romney has been proven right.
Romney was shortlisted to be Trump’s Secretary of State and was the only honourable Republican Senator who voted to convict Trump. Selecting him would be a huge slap in the face to Trump but would be bipartisan outreach to the mainstream Republicans.
The Secretary of State doesn’t set foreign policy. The President does. Most foreign policy is bipartisan anyway. Appointing Romney would work well domestically and internationally. And it would have reality mirror a West Wing episode, which is always a good thing.
Treasury: Lawrence Summers
Biden needs a strong economy for him or Harris to win in 2024. The economy was the one area Trump was seen as better. Summers was Treasury Secretary to Bill Clinton when the economy was booming, and was the last time the US was running a surplus and paying off debt.
Defence: Pete Buttigieg
Buttigieg obviously is up to far more than being Mayor of South Bend. As a former veteran, making him Secretary of Defence would be a good fit. He’d be respected by soldiers as someone who has served. He would also bring youthful energy and vigor to what is a very massive bureaucracy.
Attorney-General: Geoffrey Berman
Berman is the former US Attorney for the Southern District of New York who was sacked by Trump for refusing to drop investigations into the Trump organisation and family.
What better person to head up the Department of Justice than Berman. He would ensure any federal crimes by Trump and associates would be prosecuted, and he can’t be accused of being a partisan hack as he is a Republican who was initially appointed by Trump. If you want to see Trump in jail, Berman is your man – not because he is anti-Trump, but because he believes no one is above the law.
Education: Michelle Rhee
Okay I know this one is a non starter for Biden. The teacher unions would implode. But this was about who I would like to see and Rhee is a former Chancellor of DC Public Schools (appointed by Democrats). She gave teachers huge pay rises in exchange for being able to sack bad teachers. Reading and maths pass rates increased by 14% and 17% under her. If you want to increase literacy and numeracy rates for under-privileged students, I’d pick Rhee.
Homeland Security: Tammy Duckworth
A Democratic US Senator wounded in active service seems non controversial to me.
Trade: Paul Ryan
This seems to be the one that has upset people the most. My rationale is that Biden appears to be pro free trade, unlike Trump who was anti free trade. Biden has said he wants the US to rejoin the (CP)TPP.
Trump has led the Republican Party away from free trade. Ryan was the most prominent person I could think of (as McCain has died) who could lead them back to supporting free trade. In the past trade policy has been reasonably bi-partisan.
DNI: David Petraeus
The intelligence community has been broken after years of attacks from Trump. They need a strong leader who can rebuild them. A former CIA Director under Obama seems ideal. Petraeus isn’t partisan like Brennan. His departure because of his affair and mishandling of classified (not secret) information shouldn’t rule him out from future service
Anyway the above is a slightly longer version of my two minute tweet. I didn’t write it expecting anyone to agree with them. I did it to spark a debate. I seem to have over-achieved 🙂
A post by Wellington City councillor Tamatha Paul referring to public submitters as “absolute knobs” has been removed from Twitter.
Paul made the comment about a group of Mt Victoria residents who were part of a video submission on the council’s draft spatial plan on Wednesday. …
The group appeared on video at the council meeting as part of a submission by Mt Victoria resident Phil Kelliher, who spoke to hundreds of affected residents about the proposals.
“Shout out to these absolute knobs in the bottom right corner who said they enjoy living in Mt Vic cos [sic] the poor people live ‘out there’ and the wealthy people live ‘over here’ and it’s good for networking,” Paul said.
So these ratepayers had taken the time and trouble to make a submission to the Council, and Cr Paul is insulting them in real time on Twitter, calling them knobs.
She also smeared them by claiming the direct opposite of what she said. They were saying they don’t want wealthy and poor people living apart.
In the video, one of the women said she opposed medium-density housing in the suburb because it would lead to unaffordable housing for some people currently living in the area.
“I don’t think that’s a good idea at all, because the people that can afford to live in those [new homes], it won’t be us.
“The more up-building you try to do in the city, the more expensive it becomes.”
She said the current arrangement meant people from all different backgrounds were able to mingle together, but the new housing proposals could create a situation where “the poor people live out that way and the rich people live up this way”.
So the opposite of what Cr Paul claimed.
Paul appeared to misunderstand the comments, and said she took them to mean that the woman wanted wealthy people and poor people to be separated.
She told Stuff on Friday she still believed the comments were arrogant and were an example of “white privilege”.
And to make things worse she smears them again.
Is this really what we want from elected representatives? That if they disagree with your submission, they’ll smear and abuse you on Twitter in real time?
Ministry of Education staff who subverted communications with a school principal after he raised safety concerns about a proposed bus stop, acted “inappropriately” and their behaviour is “extremely disappointing,” the Ministry says.
So what will the Ministry do?
Emails obtained under the Official Information Act show the staff pretended to get in touch with Elsthorpe School principal Sandy Crawford, who had repeatedly invited the Ministry to a public meeting on 9 October, 2019 to explain their proposal to cut the bus service and install a new stop, without success.
In the days leading up to the meeting, the Ministry’s national operations manager of transport Steve Guiney wrote to regional transport advisor Janice Kennerley and another official Lucy Jackson asking Kennerley to give the appearance of trying to get in touch with Crawford about the meeting, while actually trying to avoid him.
This is not a junior official.
He then asked his staff member to prove they had attempted to make genuine attempts to talk to Crawford.
“You must try to reach the Principal/Board … show me a trail of attempts to talk via official means with this principal. I am not at all in favour of you or anyone fronting to discuss policy with people who are ineligible to receive the benefits of at policy,” he wrote.
Kennerley responded she had done just that, by calling Crawford when she knew he was not there.
“As below, I did try Elsthorpe School at 2.13pm but no reply. As per Lucys email, the principal is away at the principals conference so not unexpected.”
So they called the principal when they knew he was away at a conference, so they could claim they had tried to contact him.
Documents obtained by RNZ under the Official Information Act show a dramatic cut to bus services was floated as a way to reduce roll pressures in Taumarunui, where the “majority of students are not attending their closest school”.
In 2015, the Ministry proposed closing or merging several primary schools in the area because they were under-populated, but a community backlash resulted in the plan being quashed.
In July 2019, a Ministry staffer noted that many of the primary schools were still empty because students “are currently supported by the buses to attend their school of choice”.
He proposed reducing the 11 bus services to four or six in order to redirect students to their closest schools which were under-populated.
“Any reduction in bus services will terminate student choice, and will result in students no longer having a way to get to their school of choice.”
“This will be an opportunity to better align the school network in Taumarunui.”
This is equally disturbing. Officials proposing eliminating school bus routes as a way of eliminating student choice!
I’ve been contacted by the family of someone who was in the same row as the positive Covid-19 contact on Air NZ flight 457 on Thursday.
They have been given different isolation instructions from every agency they have interacted with. They are so alarmed as the lack of coherent and consistent advice, that they want people to be aware that we still have systematic failures in our Covid-19 response, as we saw with the lack of front line worker testing.
The sequence of events is:
Contacted my MOH and told the traveller in Row 23 (the same row as the positive person) was a casual contact only and did not need to isolate or even get a Covid-19 test! The traveller works in a restaurant, so if he was positive would be at very high risk of spreading it. They not only said he can go to work but that he can continue flying.
The employer didn’t want the traveller coming to work without a test so they rang Healthline to ask how they could get a test done
Healthline advised that he was in fact a close contact not a casual contact so he must self-isolate for 14 days but the rest of the family (who had been with him him for 48 hours) did not need to self-isolate
Then the MOH put out a press release (according to Stuff) saying everyone who sat within two rows of Row 23 must isolate for 14 days and their families must also isolate until they return a negative test
They called Healthine again and Healthline said the MOH advice was wrong and the family did not need to isolate or get a test
They then called Public Health (part of MOH) and a public health nurse said they should all isolate until they get test results
They were then called by a senior doctor in from Healthline to apologise for the inconsistent advice and he confirmed they should all isolate
Then they were called back again by the public health nurse and the Healthline doctor and told that they had now classified the traveller as a casual contact due to change of protocol (they were on the other side of the aisle) and none of them need to isolate or get tested!
This is beyond mickey mouse. If someone in the same row as a positive Covid-19 case gets told six different things from different parts of the health system, then something is very wrong.
The family also say that they were never asked any of the following:
Are you using the Covid-19 app?
Please wear a mask in public?
Do you need any PPE?
Do you live with elderly or high risk people?
Do you work with food or the public?
Do you need any assistance?
This mismanagement has been very upsetting to the family, as well as the risk to public health. They have young kids who were told they would have to be isolated from their Dad for 14 days, and were really upset.
I also find it hard to understand why even casual contacts are told they don’t need to get a Covid-19 test. Why on earth don’t they just arrange for all casual contacts to be tested asap?
So again in summary they were told five different things from four different health agencies, all within one day. That shows systematic problems remain with our Covid-19 response.
NB: The family member who gave me this information voted Labour. This is not about politics. It is about concern that the health system is not working as it should.
Something you will hear a lot of is that Trump has been defeated but not Trumpism. What this means is that the Republican Party overall did well enough that it will not treat Trump as a pariah. In fact he may remain the most powerful Republican for the next four years. There is talk he may set up his own TV network or show, or even run again. Of course that may all change as his legal problems grow once he leaves office.
Let’s look at the overall results:
President: Trump looks likely to lose by around 4% to 5% on the popular vote and around 232 – 306 in the electoral college.
Senate: There are two run off elections in Georgia. The best result for GOP is 52-48. Worst is a 50-50 tie which would see the Senate flip
House: No Republican lost their seat. Seven Democrats have. Dems picked up three open seats. Overall GOP up six at this stage.
States: Democrats have not won a single state legislature off the GOP. GOP won New Hampshire House and Senate and Montana Governorship giving them control of all three parts of Government there. This has a big impact on redistricting after the census
So it appears unlikely the GOP as a whole will turn its back on Trump and Trumpism. They have a decent chance of winning the House in 2022. The Senate may be more challenging for them as they will be defending 20 seats and the Democrats 12.
So what do we mean by Trumpism. It is hard to define but I’d divide it up into three areas – policies, style and authoritarism.
Policies
Trumpist policies which differ from traditional GOP ones are anti free trade, anti military intervention and no concern about deficits or debt.
It is unlikely that the GOP will revert back to its former policy stances, even though some individual politicians will.
Style
It is likely aspiring 2024 candidates will try and follow the Trump style to some degree. By style I mean the highly combative take no prisoners approach where you demonise your opponents and work at getting out your base rather than persuading centrist voters. I expect more prominent GOP politicians will attack the media relentlessly and continue populist rhetoric where all the problems of society are blamed on identifiable groups (illegal immigrants, Antifa, media, etc). I expect the GOP will especially fully fight a culture war against identity politics on the left. This is what most motivates their base.
Authoritarianism
Trump broke numerous democratic values and norms. He sacked the FBI Director for not dropping an investigation. He blackmailed Ukraine to try and smear his opponents. He publicly demanded charges be dropped against his friends and laid against his opponents. He has spent months undermining the legitimacy of elections.
This is the area least likely to be taken up by others in the GOP. They don’t share Trump’s psychological disorders and it is hard to see what Trump did here working for anyone else.
So overall I suspect the GOP will reject authoritarianism but continue to embrace Trumpist policies and a Trumpian combative style to the culture war.
Whether this works will depend partly on how well Biden governs as President and also the final results of the Senate elections. Personally I expect the GOp to win at least one of the Georgia run offs as I can’t see Georgia wanting to hand over both chambers of Congress to the Democrats.
It is interesting to look at which Labour MPs have not been made Ministers, despite having been in Parliament for three or more terms. This suggests they may never become a Minister.
Louisa Wall, in her 5th term
Rino Tirikatene, in his 4th term
Adrian Rurawhe, in his 3rd term
As we have seen a first term MP and several second term MPs becomes Ministers, it is safe to conclude the three above probably never will.
How about the 2017 intake. Let’s look at what has happened to them:
Kiri Allan – Cabinet
Ginny Andersen
Tamati Coffey
Liz Craig
Paul Eagle
Willie Jackson – Cabinet
Anahila Kanongata’s-Suisuiki
Marja Lubeck
Jo Luxton
Kieran McAnulty – Chief Whip
Greg O’Connor
Willow-Jean Prime – Junior Whip
Priyance Radhakrishan – Minister
Deborah Russel – Under-Secretary
Jamie Strange
Jan Tinetti – Cabinet
Angie Warren-Clark
Duncan Webb – Junior Whip
The ones in bold are those who have not got a role in the executive, or are a whip or presiding officer. If Labour gets a third term, some may get there. But there are a lot of 2020 intake MPs who will be keen to get there also.
A property management company that got in trouble for a “tone deaf” email to renters at the beginning of the lockdown is under fire again after a letter drop “inviting neighbours to snitch” on tenants.
The letter from Quinovic advised neighbours new tenants had moved into their area and encouraged them to contact the company with “any concerns about the property and its management”. …
The letter drew harsh criticism after it was shared on Twitter on Tuesday.
“We got a letter from slumlord scumbags Quinovic saying that they rented out one of the houses on our street inviting us to snitch on the tenants. More b……. that should be illegal,” the original post said.
I am not a fan of Quinovic. I have heard many horror stories myself, and they are not a company I would ever use as if I was a landlord.
But I’m not sure in this case they have done anything wrong. I think it is useful for neighbours to know who owns or is responsible for a property.
The fact someone on Twitter is outraged about something is now newsworthy. Many people on Twitter are perpetually outraged about pretty much everything.
