Cactus Kate has dug up this wonderful e-mail:
In April 2019, Symmans emailed Dalton about the possibility of attending a health and safety briefing run by a specialist consultancy at a meeting of the event steering group.
“This [is] a workshop to identify ACEs risks,” Symmans wrote, adding that Horton “will be attending. [You] are also invited to attend.”
Dalton replied minutes later, indicating he did not want to attend.“I would rather staple my cock to a burning building [than] attend a Health and Safety briefing – are you kidding me, that would be the most fucking boring arse covering load of mind numbing bullocks ever invented.”
Best response ever.
The Taxpayers’ Union team have put together a scorecard for the current parliamentary parties based on how friendly or hostile they are to taxpayers.
These are the overall scores.
This shows you for the different types of taxes. You can also get the detailed tax policies for each party.
The 2020 General Election is just 11 days away, and all around New Zealand, political parties are promising much. Whether what is promised will ever be delivered is a moot point; I suspect we will all be sceptical if a party promises a Year of Delivery again!
Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson rolled into Christchurch yesterday, promising the residents of Christchurch a new covered stadium. That’s great, and few would begrudge Cantabrians a level of comfort in which to watch sport, especially if they have sat outside at Addington Stadium on a cold winter night.
But wait; haven’t we been here before? Stuff reported on March 20th that “Cabinet has signed off in its promised $220 million share of the $473m stadium cost after considering the city council’s business case for the project.”
So was yesterday’s announcement by the PM and Finance Minister a new one? Or was it an announcement and promise by the Leader of the Labour Party, and her de facto deputy? Was the Labour Party double-announcing a government-approved project, and claiming it as its own?
A similar, albeit less expensive promise was made to Whanganui voters last month. Labour’s Lower North Island Infrastructure announcement included an allocation of $11.6 million for Whanganui’s iconic Sarjeant Gallery. Was this the same money previously announced by Shane Jones on a visit to Whanganui on 2 July? On that occasion, the money was coming from the New Zealand First Electoral Survival Fund, otherwise known as the Provincial Growth Fund!
As an aside, funding for the Sarjeant Gallery was first promised by Christopher Finlayson in November 2016, but since then the cost of the project has risen significantly, a problem not confined to this project but to projects in general. Does anyone seriously believe the final cost of the Christchurch Stadium will not be significantly more than the current $473 million?
Lastly, Labour’s contribution to the Sarjeant Gallery, welcome as it is, is scheduled for the next year to 18 months. Did no one tell the Prime Minister that in fact work started on the Sarjeant Gallery redevelopment several months ago, and was well underway when the Labour Party so generously handed out taxpayers’ money?
Promises; regardless of who makes them, they ought be treated with a healthy serving of salt.
Footnote: This is a brief return to blogging whilst DPF is incapacitated. I have no desire to resurrect my former blogging life!
Stuff reports:
A man who shot armed intruders outside his rural home has been found not guilty of murder.
Orren Scott Williams, 38, was also on trial for three counts of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm for the 2019 incident.
Four men had broken into his west coast Waikato home, near Kāwhia, in the early hours of June 6 – the Crown says to steal cannabis.
The men were masked and armed with a shotgun and machete – they fought with Williams, and held a gun over him and his wife before he made a break for his firearms cabinet.
Outside the Hauturu home, Williams fired at least eight shots from a semi-automatic rifle, and hit all four men – one of whom later died from his wounds.
On Monday, the jury at Hamilton High Court started deliberating at 10.50am and returned with a verdict of not guilty to both murder and manslaughter around 4pm.
The jurors also found Williams not guilty of the charges of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm.
Sounds a fair decision. If you break into someone’s place with weapons, they get to act in self defence.
The Crown had said Williams knew the men were leaving when he shot at them in his driveway.
“The Crown says it’s hardly acting in defence of yourself and your family, shots fired in anger, to tell people to get lost,” Justice Peters paraphrased.
The defence, on the other hand, said when the car stopped part-way down the drive Williams thought the men were regrouping.
He fired the first shot after seeing the nearby shape of a man he thought had a gun, and thinking “it’s either him or me”.
The defence argued that “in the circumstances you don’t just stand back and think, oh well, a couple of shots should do the trick”, Justice Peters said.
If they only had machetes the Crown might have had a case. Nut the offenders had a shotgun also.
Hopefully those involved in the attempted armed robbery, who survived, stop committing armed robberies.
The Coalition Agreement promised:
“A commitment to relocate government functions into the regions.”
You often hear this from political parties – that too many public servants are in Wellington. So how has Labour gone in implementing this commitment?
And once again they swung and missed.
In this episode, Islay Aitchison talks to ACT leader David Seymour about his party’s proposed tax cuts, public debt and cutting red tape.
Support the show (http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/donate)
Do you know what was the very first policy announced by Jacinda Ardern as Labour Leader?
RNZ reported:
In her first policy announcement and campaign rally as party leader, Ms Ardern unveiled the party’s plan to tackle Auckland’s transport woes at a rally on the city’s waterfront this afternoon.
Labour already planned to build light rail to Mt Roskill and Ms Ardern said it would be complete in four years.
As most readers know Labour are on track to deliver 0 metres of light rail by the date they promised to have delivered 13,000 metres.
Was admitted to Wellington Hospital last night with suspected appendicitis. Very very rough night but probably having the operation this morning.
So probably no or light blogging until I get discharged.
The list of those infected at the top ranks of the US Government or Trump campaign is growing. It seems Covid-19 most likely spread at a function to celebrate Trump’s Supreme Court pick. 150 people were in a crowded room, and not a single mask was worn.
So that is the candidate, the head of the party organisation and the head of the campaign all infected.
Also even after Trump was informed Hicks was positive (and hence he might be also), he went ahead with a fundraiser.
The next debate is on October 15th and the advice is that Trump should remain isolated until after that date. So they will need to decide if the 2nd debate is cancelled or postponed.
The latest Real Clear Politics Electoral Map has Biden ahead with 375 EC votes to 163 for Trump. This is on polls before he got Covid-19. States which Trump won where he now trails are:
If this results eventuated it would be the biggest landslide since 1996 and the worst result from an incumbent President since 1980.
TVNZ’s Q+A has released a poll of 500 people in Auckland Central.
A poll a couple of weeks ago by TV3’s The Nation had Labour’s Helen White 16% ahead of National’s Emma Mellow.
This poll has the gap at just 5%, which is within the margin of error, and shows the race is now very close.
The results are:
Swarbrick is 9% behind White, which is well outside the margin of error. However if Swarbrick does pick up support from White, it will benefit Mellow’s chances.
If the gap has gone from 16% to 5% in a fortnight, then it could be a very tight race between White and Mellow over the final two weeks.
One News reports:
In the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, New Zealanders were asked, ‘Do you think the voting age should be reduced to 16?’
Only 13 per cent said yes while the vast majority (85 per cent) said no. The rest don’t know.
So lowering the voting age is almost the most unpopular thing you can propose.
National leader Judith Collins says she doesn’t think it needs to be lowered, while Labour leader Jacinda Ardern says she “wouldn’t rule it out in the future”.
In the future could be in 2022!
Last night there was a candidate’s debate in Auckland Central. I’ve been sent a transcript of the Q+A for a question on 5G.
Audience Member: Given that the proposed higher frequencies for 5G have had very little testing for, thank you, [mic given] – i’l start again, given that the proposed frequencies for 5G have had very little safety testing for humans, for insects [inaudible] … should we be rolling out this untested technology in Auckland city centre?
The question is based on a false premise. There has been massives of safety testing of the frequencies used for 5G. To quote the PMCSA:
Radiation that has frequencies higher than that of visible light, like the ultraviolet radiation rays in sunlight, and X-rays, can damage the cells in our bodies, potentially causing cancer if exposure is high. These types of waves are called ‘ionising radiation’, which reflects their ability to break the chemical bonds in molecules, which can damage cells. So exposure to sunlight is linked with skin cancer for those who spend a lot of time in the sun without protection.
In contrast, the radio waves used for 5G have frequencies that are ten thousand times too low to damage molecules (so are called ‘non-ionising’). The only fully documented way 5G radio waves can cause harm is through their heating effect and this can only happen at very high intensities.
Radio waves can heat our body if we are over-exposed to them. However, these effects can only occur when exposed directly to a very powerful source so that the heat builds up enough to damage tissue before it dissipates. 5G sources are simply not powerful enough to cause damage in this way.
As the thermal effects of radio waves are well-understood, the limits at which they can potentially begin to cause harm are clearly defined. NZ has set its own standards, which are much lower than this limit (about 50 times lower). This means that there is a large safety margin built into our standard.
So we do know the frequencies are non-ionising and the level of 5G waves is at less than 2% of the level which could cause harm from heating.
So how did the candidates answer the question?
Emma: I’m very supportive of 5G. I think it’s fantastic technology that will help revolutionise some of our industries and help our America’s cup guys win the cup next year [inaduable] other things like science and technology for a number of advanced medical operations. I’m really excited about what the opportunities are for us as a country. We invested in ultra-fast broadband network for New Zealand. We got through Covid because we had that technology and I’m excited for what’s to come.
Excellent response. Ignores the misinformation about 5Gb being unsafe and talks up its huge benefits.
Vernon: Our future in New Zealanders is embracing technology and innovation, not going the opposite direction. My understanding, and I’m sure I’m going to regret saying this, but my understanding of concerns around broadcast frequency is not so much to do with the frequency but the power of the broadcast. So if it’s actually lower power and there are going to be more of these cells then the concern is that actually it’s quite the opposite. You know. You’re not actually being exposed to as much of that particular electro-magnetic radiation the way it works. But look, the way forward is to embrace technology and innovation and not to run away from it.
Also an excellent response. Actually quotes the science about it being the power of the broadcast.
Chloe: I guess, I guess just in addition to tautoko to these two points I would also add there has been understandably been a history of fear of change and there is often at times like this, particularly over the last decade or two, there has been a lot of information that ends up being shared on social media and on the internet [inaudible] and that in my role, if I have the privilege of representing all of you, I think it is really important to walk through that with you so that there is isn’t this on-going division which has led to some people, for example, marching during lockdowns which is not particularly constructive to all of our public heaths.
A third excellent response backing up the previous two and specifically saying we need to counter misinforation.
Helen: I’m … [inaudible] It’s going to surprise you. I don’t know. It’s not that I am um I … I … I actually take the point of these people. One of the things you get out of politicians is that they pretend they know more than they do. I am, I am an employment lawyer. I have been reading and listening but I don’t know an answer to that question but it doesn’t mean I am actually supportive of you, sir, in that way because I am simply outside of the boundaries of my knowledge and I have to go with what the scientists and the people who do know are telling me in that area but I will read the material that I have been sent. Thank you.
The Labour candidate said she doesn’t know 5G is safe because she’s only a lawyer!!
When someone presents a conspiracy theory to you, you don’t respond by saying you don’t know.
I’m not a physicist but I’m happy to say that 5G is safe, as I can read and comprehend.
I’m not a chemist but I’m happy to say fluoridation in NZ is safe, as I can read anc comprehend.
I’m not a rocket scientist but I’m happy to say the moon landing wasn’t faked.
I’m not a historian but I’m happy to say the holocaust actually happened.
I’m not a microbiologist but I’m happy to say 5G doesn’t cause Covid-19
The One News Colmar Brunton poll found:
So one referendum looks highly likely to pass and one very likely to fail.
AAP has done what is arguably the worst fact check of recent times. They seem unable to distinguish between what is a fact and an opinion.
National MP Simeon Brown said on TV:
“When we were in government we increased renewable energy from 65.4 percent to 81.9 percent. In the last three years this government has increased it by another 0.5 percent.”
AAP has labeled this as “Misleading”.
They check the data and find:
Mr Brown appears to be using calendar-year figures from the report (table 2).
The previous National government was elected on November 8, 2008, and figures for that year show 65.4 percent of the country’s electricity came from renewable sources at the time.
The party left government on September 23, 2017. That year, 81.9 percent of the country’s electricity came from renewables – matching the figures Mr Brown quoted.
So Simeon had the data 100% accurate – even to the decimal point.
The Labour-led government formed on October 19, 2017. The MBIE data shows in 2019 the share of electricity that came from renewable sources was 82.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points since 2017.
Again Simeon had the data absolutely correct.
Quarterly figures are also available and more closely align with the terms of the two governments (table 1).
Figures for the year to September 2008 show 64.0 percent of the country’s electricity came from renewable sources prior to National taking power, but that proportion increased to 83.5 percent for the year to September 2017.
The most recent figures, for the year to June 2020, show renewable sources made up 82.2 percent of all electricity generation, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points on the year before Labour formed government.
It’s even worse for Labour if you use quarterly data.
So why did AAP claim the statement was misleading?
Experts warned against crediting National with changes in the renewable energy makeup during its last period of government.
University of Auckland senior economics lecturer Stephen Poletti has written multiple papers on New Zealand’s electricity market. He told AAP FactCheck geothermal electricity generation increased under the National government and gas power plants were retired for financial reasons.
“This was nothing to do with any policies to have more renewable electricity,” Dr Poletti said.
They are saying the statement was misleading because of the opinion of an academic that the change between 2008 and 2017 was nothing to do with the Government of the time.
WTF!!!!
Does AAP not know what a fact is and what an opinion is.
You can’t call yourself a fact checker and claim a factual statement is wrong based on the opinion of someone.
If AAP is suggesting that a Government can’t claim credit (or be blamed) for changes that occur when they are in Government, then that is being pedantic to a point of insanity.
If employment rose by 80,000 during this Government’s term and Grant Robertson said “we created 80,000 jobs” would AAP claim this is false or misleading because an economist has an opinion the jobs created were not due to Government policies?
I mean personally I do think the impact of Government policies is overstated on a lot of data such as jobs, but that is totally different to claiming a politician is lying or being misleading when they claim credit for good data under their Government.
AAP FactCheck found that Mr Brown’s statement was misleading. While he quoted correct figures showing renewable electricity generation increased from 65.4 percent to 81.9 percent under the previous National government, and by only 0.5 percent under the Labour-led administration, experts say these changes have largely been independent of government policy.
AAP FactCheck should retire in disgrace. You don’t label a statement that was entirely factually true because of the opinions of a couple of people that the positive outcome was not due to Government policy. That is an opinion, not a fact.
A good fact checker would note that it is open to debate whether the change was due to government policy or due to external factors (or both), but would not find the overall statement misleading. AAP have made the “misleading” label risible by applying it to contested opinion, not facts.
In breaking news Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for Covid-19.
UPDATE: Kids now asleep so have time to elaborate more.
Some have noted that there are a lot of people wishing ill well on Trump. I’m not one of them. I want him to recover and lose.
But it is fair to note the difference between a political leader being struck with something which he has no control over and something he had lots of control over.
If Trump was say hit by lightening in a freak accident, then anyone who celebrates that is ghoulish.
But Covid-19 infectiousness is not a freak accident. Good public health measures can massively reduce its spread. And just a few weeks ago he was mocking Joe Biden for wearing a mask so much.
And he has spent months talking down the pandemic and refusing to do even basic stuff (such as promoting a clear public health message), which is partly why the US has over 200,000 deaths. In fact just six hours ago he said:
So while no-one should celebrate anyone getting sick, there is a certain amount of karma when someone who spent months sneering at public health measures such as mask wearing, then gets the very virus he downplayed as a risk.
An analogy would be if a person who is a campaigner against wearing seat belts in cars, then got injured in an accident because he or she wasn’t wearing a seat belt.
Anyway I hope Trump recovers. He may not even be particularly sick from it. But it is worth looking at scenarios, if he does get seriously ill.
If Trump did become seriously ill and was unable to perform his duties, he could under the 25th amendment having Mike Pence become Acting President.
Some have speculated about what would happen if Pence also had Covid-19. Well again just being in isolation doesn’t mean you can’t be Acting President. In the very unlikely event that both Trump and Pence were so sick they couldn’t perform the duties of President, then under the Presidential Succession Act Nancy Pelosi would become the Acting President, so long as she resigned her seat in the House and her Speakership.
If for some reason Pelosi did not want to resign as Speaker, then the President pro tem of the Senate would be the Acting President. That is Senator Chuck Grassley. He is 87 years old.
These scenarios are unlikely.
Another scenario people have asked about is what happens if Trump did die from Covid-19. This is somewhat ghoulish but as the fatality rate for people his age is 8.6%, it is not miniscule. His odds would be lower as he would have the best healthcare treatment possible available to him.
Mike Pence would obviously become the President. But voting has already started in some states, so it would be complicated. The RNC could appoint him as the new candidate under emergency powers. But in some states voting has started, so Trump’s name would remain on the ballot.
But thanks to the Electoral College, it wouldn’t matter that much. In states won by Pence, the electors to the Electoral College would vote for him, even if it was Trump’s name on the ballot paper. So Pence would be elected President if they won a majority in the electoral college.
What would not be clear is who would be Vice-President. If Pence nominated someone before the election, then again the GOP electoral college delegates would vote for that person. Or he could ask the electoral college not to elect anyone, and he would nominate a VP once he is sworn in, who would have to be confirmed by both the House and Senate.
But technically the Senate could elect a Vice-President directly, if there is no majority on the Electoral College for a VP, so most likely is Pence would nominate someone.
Again hopefully Trump doesn’t get seriously ill from it, and the election continues as normal. Of interest will be whether there is any change in the polls from this.
I suspect there are many others like this. Chris is an awesome local MP, and that view is shared across the political spectrum in Hutt South.
The Daily Mail reports:
The Proud Boys were celebrating online Wednesday after Donald Trump told them to ‘stand back and stand by’ during the first presidential debate – while president was attacked by members of his own party for refusing to condemn white supremacy before delivering his message to the far-right group.
Members of the group posted about the shout out, telling the president: ‘We’re ready.’ Their account on the social media app Telegram posted: ‘Standing down and standing by sir.’
Proud Boys is a far-right organization that admits only men as members and promotes and engages in political violence. The group believes white men and western culture are under siege and one of its co-founders recorded a video titled ’10 things I hate about the Jews.’
Sounds a lovely group. Their initiation process is even better:
It seems No 3 has been modified to allow it, but not more than once a month!
On 25 August 2017, Radio NZ reported:
A Labour government would start building a new hospital in the centre of Dunedin in its first term, the party says. …
“The hospital at present is dangerous and unsafe for staff and patients. Most of the existing buildings would not survive a severe earthquake.
“Things are so bad that at the moment operations have to be delayed because of the leaks when it rains. Dunedin Hospital is no longer fit for purpose,” she said.
So Jacinda promised work would start on building a new hospital in Labour’s 1st term. This was deemed urgent as the hospital is dangerous and unsafe, according to Jacinda.
The site for the new hospital is the old Cadbury factory site. Their policy was clear:
Labour will commit to beginning construction of the new Dunedin Hospital within our first term
So how is the new hospital going?
That photo was taken this week. Either it is a hospital that looks like a chocolate factory, or they haven’t even cleared the site yet.
It’s actually worse than that. They have not even managed to agree a business case for the hospital. The Minister of Health was a Dunedin MP, and in three years he couldn’t even get a business case for the hospital together.
Labour now says they will decide on a business case by the end of 2021. So they take four years to even put a business case together. Imagine how long actual construction would take!
Once again they were good at the promises but Ministers have shown they are incompetent at delivery. Rather than have construction start in three years they couldn’t even put together a business case for the funding.
They now claim the hospital will be finished in 2028. Based on progress to date, they may not have even started it by then!
This is the latest version of the ad. Thanks to the designer, who has been located and revised it. We’re going to fact check the data over the weekend, and I’m hoping we can start advertising it on Monday.
There are two easy ways to donate to have this ad seen by as many people as possible.
Internet Banking
Kiwiblog
BNZ 02 0536 0025353 001
I suggest you put something like “PK ad” in one of the reference fields.
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From Five Thirty Eight:
So two thirds of Americans who watched the debate through Trump performed poorly.
Now in one sense this may not matter, as in 2016 most thought he performed poorly also but he still won.
But in 2020 he has a much larger gap in the polls (7.6%) so he needed a good result to change things. Biden just needed to not stuff up.
At present Biden is forecast to win 332 electoral votes to 206 for Trump. A poll just out in South Carolina has him just 1% ahead and in 2016 he won that state by 14%.