Treasury has done some high level forecasts for what may happen to key indicators under different scenarios. They scenarios broadly are:

1. Level 4 for 1 month and Level 3 for 1 month
2. Level 4 for 3 months
3. Level 4 for 6 months and Level 3 for 6 months
4. Level 4 for 3 months and Level 3 for 3 months
5. Same as Scenario 1 but lower global growth

They key indicators are:

They also say that the Government spending an extra $20 billion in Scenario 1 means unemployment would only peak at 8.5% and drop back to 5.5% in 2021. That seems heroically optimistic.

AAP reports:

The heartening response to a crisis in journalism has been demonstrated by Press Patron, a homegrown crowdfunding service.

In January, subscribers to the platform collectively distributed $2500 a day to their choice of emerging and non-traditional media outlets.

Over the past four weeks, contributions have jumped ten-fold to $25,000 a day.

“It’s been huge,” Alex Clark, Press Patron’s founder told AAP.

“In the past six months we’ve doubled our all-time revenue and we’re on track to double again in the next three months.

“Media have been honest about their advertising crash … and readers have responded by saying ‘we value you, and we’re going to fund you’.”

Press Patron’s growth could see more than $10,000,000 distributed to Kiwi media outlets this year, and has lured establishment players into the next-gen scheme.

New Zealand’s oldest daily newspaper, the Otago Daily Times of Dunedin, has joined up in the hope of adding a new revenue source. Others are expected to follow.

This is excellent to see and it shows the media model is changing. Yes it is challenging times for media, but we constantly see new models emerging.

Newsroom and The Spinoff have both shown you can start a new media business and grow and thrive. They have a totally different funding model to previous media.

The Government not jump in and start funding private media companies. That makes them dependent on the Government of the day, and would be awful for democracy.

For those saying the end is nigh and the media can’t survive in this Internet age, well they said that about the music industry. And music industry revenues did drop from from 2001 to 2014, but then it started to grow again as digital models thrives (especially Apple Music) and has grown from US14.3 billion to US$19.1 billion.

Same with movies. Once it was all about pirates will drive us bankrupt. Today box office revenues are US $43 billion, with constant annual growth.

And look at what Netflix and other services have done to television.

Yes it is tough and challenging times for media. But people will pay for quality content, as the story above shows.

The Herald reports:

British performer Tim Brooke-Taylor, a member of comedy trio The Goodies, has died after contracting the new coronavirus. He was 79.

Brooke-Taylor’s agent says he died Sunday morning “from Covid-19.”

Brooke-Taylor was part of Cambridge University’s Footlights revue, the breeding ground of several generations of British comic talent. He broke into radio and television comedy in the 1960s alongside future Monty Python members John Cleese and Graham Chapman.

I grew up on The Goodies. I watched the TV show and even got their annuals. Great goofie humour and Tim Brooke-Taylor was my favourite.

A sad loss.

Stuff reports:

Wellington City Council wants to freeze $8 million for events spending over the next 12 months despite predictions public gatherings will continue to be banned for over a year.

The council is proposing to set aside the money in a city recovery fund aimed at marketing campaigns and delivering a “strong programme of early events” once the nationwide coronavirus lockdown ends.

Any spending on events in the next six to 12 months is nuts. Councils need to understand the world has changed.

City councillor Tamatha Paul said the $8m fund needed to be adjusted to provide targeted support for industries and businesses affected by the lockdown measures.

“We know there aren’t going to be any events in Wellington for a while, so there’s no point setting money aside for events that might not even end up happening.”

Paul planned to move an amendment at Thursday’s council meeting to see the money redirected towards environmental and technological advancement, emissions and waste reduction, and Kaupapa Māori innovation.

She believed she had the necessary support among councillors.

Instead of not spending the money and stopping rates going up, the Councillors want to just spend it elsewhere on pet projects. They just don’t get it.

Business and household incomes are falling. The Council needs to restrict spending to essential services, not pet projects.

If you work out $8 million of spending in one area is daft, then can the spending – don’t find other ways to spend it.

If Councillors can’t do it, then voters need to punish them for it at the election when they will still be struggling, yet facing higher and higher rates bills.

The Herald reports:

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has thanked a New Zealand nurse – Jenny from Invercargill – for saving his life.

He listed a number of the frontline staff who cared for him during his week-long stay at St Thomas’ Hospital in London but singled out two nurses who stood by his bedside for 48 hours “when things could have gone either way”.

The Prime Minister said Jenny from Invercargill “to be exact”, and Luis from Portugal, were the reason that “in the end, my body did start to get enough oxygen”.

“Because for every second of the night they were watching and they were thinking and they were caring and making the interventions I needed,” he said.

“So that is how I also know that across this country, 24 hours a day, for every second of every hour, there are hundreds of thousands of NHS staff who are acting with the same care and thought and precision as Jenny and Luis.”

Well done Jenny from Invercargill.

I say once this is over we make Jenny our lead negotiator for a free trade deal with the UK, because how can Boris say no to her after this 🙂

More seriously this does show how London especially is a global city with people from all around the world working there. The UK can now set its own immigration policy again. Hopefully they will continue to value Kiwis and others with valuable skills.

The Herald reports:

US President Donald Trump has been mocked on social media for referring to the coronavirus as a “germ that has gotten so brilliant” it’s even outsmarting antibiotics.

As most of us know, antibiotics are useless against any virus, let alone one as deadly and complex as the coronavirus, which has so far killed more than 18,700 Americans and infected at least half a million others.

But that didn’t stop Trump from raving about the coronavirus’ resistance to drugs used to treat bacterial, not viral, infections.

I recommend people actually watch the video to see for themselves how bad it is.

How old were you when you learnt that antibiotics only work on bacterial infections, not viral inflections? I think I was nine or ten.

Its possible Trump didn’t realise Covid-19 is a virus despite it being commonly called coronavirus which is a bit of a takeaway!

A guest post by David Garrett:

Over the past few weeks – and particularly since “lockdown” began only two short weeks ago – we have seen police powers growing, seemingly by the day. It began  with what former Commissioner Bush called a “three step process”: firstly educate, then warn, then if necessary arrest. Bush seemed to think the veiled threat of “a trip to our place” for those who didn’t satisfy his men  somewhat amusing. It was made  clear that what was envisaged for persons taken on that “trip”  was a period of detention and then – if the person concerned was a good boy and agreed to whatever was asked of them  – release without charge. So far so only slightly sinister, although it would be fair to say that most people didn’t really see it that way. It was only libertarians like me who had some disquiet from the beginning.

The next step was a exponential increase in police powers granted by the Medical Officer of Health, the apparently very capable Dr Ashley Bloomfield, by way of a Notice issued  under s.70 of the Health Act 1956. It is no exaggeration to say that the powers granted to the police under that Notice far exceed anything seen in this country since the waterfront strike/lockout in 1951; they are arguably greater than 70 years ago.

If any reader thinks that statement is hyperbole, I strongly urge them to read the said section 70  – just Google “New Zealand Legislation” and insert “Health Act” into the box. A Notice under s.70 allows persons acting under the direction of the Medical Officer of Health to: order that animals be destroyed; require persons to submit themselves for medical examination or testing at a prescribed place and time; require persons and places  to be disinfected; require persons to remain where they are until declared free of disease; and most draconian of all – and that is not a word I use lightly –  do anything listed under s.70 (2), which bears quoting in full:

s.70 (2) The medical officer of health, and any environmental health officer or other person authorised in that behalf by the medical officer of health, may at any time, with or without assistants, enter on any lands, buildings, or ships, and inspect the same and all things thereon or therein; and may do, with respect to any persons, places, lands, buildings, ships, animals, or things, whatever in the opinion of the medical officer of health is necessary or expedient for the purpose of carrying out the foregoing provisions of this section

In other words, the police – or any other “authorized” person – may enter into your home and do “whatever in the opinion of the Medical Officer of Health is necessary or expedient…”. These are extraordinary powers, seemingly without obvious limit. They are being interpreted to mean inter alia¸ that the  police may enter people’s homes, demand to know who is there and why, and if the answers are not satisfactory to the police or other agent of the state exercising the power, to arrest that person.

While the right to petition the  courts on a writ of habeas corpus has not been suspended  – so far as I know – the courts themselves are not currently sitting regularly, and frankly I do not know quite how I would go about making an application to the High Court – especially over Easter –  if any client of mine was arrested and detained without charge for an indefinite period. But, as the infomercials say wait, there’s more.

Today Stuff reveals that the police have co-opted Aviation Security Officers – those guys whose  job it is to watch the screen as your carry on is scanned – to “assist” the police in the exercise of their powers. Think about that for a moment – a person with no training to speak of, and certainly no training regarding , or even  awareness of,  citizens’ rights under the law – except at the airport –  is now potentially empowered to enter your home and demand to know why your brother or your cousin or your girlfriend  is there, and if they don’t like the answer, have you arrested by a policeman who is just a cell phone call away.

The hapless and incompetent Phil Twyford blandly assures us that such officers “will not be deployed in situations that may put their safety at risk”. How reassuring. Frankly the safety of such “officers” is rather less important to me than the rights of citizens to go about their lawful business without some person  whose usual job is watching a scanner at  the airport demanding to know who is in a house and why, with the knowledge that that entirely untrained person is able to call on all the forces of the state if he or she doesn’t like the answer – or maybe just the “attitude” of the person being questioned.

 What are the limits of the powers now granted to these former scanner operators? Who knows? For me, these people seem to be  uncomfortably close to “Massey’s Cossacks” – farmers who were made “special constables” in 1913, and as with their modern day counterparts at the airport,  given the power to “assist the police” or in actuality, back in 1913, to   beat up strikers on the wharves.

Back in 1951, the government of the day declared that the country was “at war” with militant waterside workers who were demanding higher pay. No disease was involved, or at least no physical one.  Emergency regulations imposed rigid censorship, gave police sweeping powers of arrest, and made it an offence to assist strikers – even giving food to their children was illegal. However, as  Rodney Hide has noted, even in 1951 the entire country was not under home detention, and nor were people prevented from going to their family bach.

What is next? Police Minister Nash has announced that “the defence force remains on standby” which means that martial law must be at least within the contemplation of some. Do we really want a cabinet containing Nash and Andrew Little to decide whether it’s time to call in the army “to assist”?

All of the above surely begs the question “Is the cure worse than the disease?” I would argue that that may well be the case. Today two more deaths were announced, one of them a 94 year old man, and another person in their 80’s. All four deceased were in their 70’s or older. All four  certainly died with, if not of, Covid-19. I mean no disrespect to the families of the deceased, nor  do I wish to sound uncaring,  when  noting that at 94, every day one wakes up in the morning  is surely  a bonus. The common cold, let alone “ordinary” flu leading to pneumonia  must carry off hundreds if not thousands of elderly people every winter.

I should make clear that I am not in the camp of those who see  this disease as “just the flu” in order to minimise it,  although it is worth noting that  the writer of the seminal work on the 1918 pandemic  made clear that it also was  “just the flu” and not a new and terrible form of TB, or worse, a return of the black plague. This is clearly a very nasty illness no-one – particularly the elderly  or the otherwise vulnerable – would wish to catch.  

I have a son who suffers from seasonal asthma who has been hospitalized on a number of occasions – once three times in one winter – for complications from that distressing condition. He is very much at risk if he was to contract  Covid-19, and I am doing all I can to protect him from catching it.

But let us recall that community transmission has remained at about 2% while most cases continue to be closely linked to overseas travel. In other words the chances of anyone getting it from a trip to the supermarket – with or without the largely useless facemask – are tiny at best.  At long last, full quarantine measures are being imposed at the border; in my view they should have been put in place two weeks ago at least, given the clear pattern of transmission from the very beginning.

But surely we must retain some perspective. For the fourth day running more people have recovered than there have been new cases. There have been a total of four deaths, all of elderly people who, it must be said, could have been carried off by anything, or simply died in their sleep. Given everything we now    know, is this a time for extending  the state’s draconian powers to scanner monitors from the airport? Not in my book it isn’t. History teaches that when emergency powers “for the duration” are put in place, the duration has a way of extending way beyond when most people would think them necessary.

National in 2008 made a bold promise. If elected, they would roll out fibre connections to most households in New Zealand within ten years.

This went well beyond what the current Government was considering, which was merely fibre to the cabinet, and copper to the house.

National won, and the policy had to become a reality, which it did under Steven Joyce and then Amy Adams. It was a complex undertaking and less competent Ministers might have seen such an ambitious policy end up like Labour’s Kiwibuild or Light Rail policies – all talk and no action.

Instead we’ve seen over 900,000 households and businesses get connected to fibre. 126 cities and towns have fibre available.

Consider how much worse the four week lockdown would be, if most of the country was still on copper broadband instead of fibre?

So thanks to Steven and Amy for delivering this.

Stuff reports:

Warehouse founder Sir Stephen Tindall, Trade Me creator Sam Morgan and former Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe joined forces to help ready the country to fight Covid-19.

Together they ordered 50 intensive care ventilators, seven planeloads of PPE protective clothing and equipment, and met with the Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern the Sunday before lockdown was announced to urge the Government not to delay shutting the country down to try to limit deaths and eradicate Covid-19.

Thank goodness she listened to them, and changed the strategy from mitigation to elimination.

Ironic that all the Government defenders attacked Sam Morgan for daring to have written an article calling on the Government to move faster. And it turns out he was the guy who was right.

“A number of us guys had a meeting with the prime minister and Grant Robertson on the Sunday before lockdown,” said Tindall.

“Some of us, Sam Morgan and I in particular, realised there was a lot of stuff not getting done. We basically took the bull by the horns along with the guys from Zuru, and used our own money and ordered up a whole heap of PPE gear. There’s actually seven planeloads coming. Two have arrived already.”

Great initiative.

Stuff reports:

Supermarket queues are longer than ever, as shoppers brave the queues to restock after one day closure.

After the supermarkets closed on Good Friday, New World Wellington City, known to locals as Chaffers, had a line around the block by midday. Other supermarkets around the capital reportedly long waits, even by lockdown standards.

People have had to queue up for as long as 90 minutes, just to get in the door. It was madness to force supermarkets to close for a day.

For the last two weeks, many supermarkets have had queues to get in. This is for three reasons.

1. All other food outlets such as butchers and green grocers are closed, so more people are going to supermarkets
2. Many supermarkets have shorter opening hours than normal to give them time to restock
3. Social distancing means fewer people allowed in a store at any one time

So more people trying to shop in fewer hours and with less capacity has meant queues most days.

But when the Government then forces every supermarket to close on Friday, of course you are going to have massive queues on Saturday as you have twice as many people trying to shop.

The Government allowed supermarkets to open today, which was a partial victory. But they should have allowed them to open on Friday also. Frankly making people queue for 90 minutes to get into a supermarket helps no-one.

Interesting to compare across these countries.

In terms of the number of cases per capita Australia is lowest and Ireland is highest.

In terms of deaths per capita NZ is lowest and the UK is by far the highest. Of course deaths are a lagging indicator as it takes four weeks on average to die from Covid-19, if you do die from it.

And in terms of test done, Australia has done the most tests per capita and the UK the least.

Broadly speaking both Australia and New Zealand are doing relatively well. I think being remote islands helps!

Todd Niall at Stuff writes:

No one is asking the government to cut taxes in the face of what might be a sharp economic downturn.

That is because the government provides safety nets, unprecedented economic stimulus, and a welfare, health and support system, that will pick up extra strain.

Auckland Council similarly should not make rate rise cuts that would risk a new cycle of underinvestment in essential spending, and a failure to meet the challenge of climate change, and growth.

I’m staggered that such a normally excellent journalist would use such doublespeak and try and pretend calls for taxes not to go up is a call for a tax cut.

Taxes and rates are both compulsory government charges.

The central Government is doing the right thing by not increasing taxes in a recession as it knows it would make the recession worse, and impose extra costs on families and businesses that can’t afford it.

Why then it is acceptable for local Governments to do the opposite and increase taxes on families and businesses?

Trying to label a plea for a rate increase not to occur as a “rate rise cut” is terrible journalism, to be blunt.

If a landlord said it wanted to put your rent up 10% and they then only put it up by 5%, would media describe that as a rent rise cut? No it is merely a smaller increase.

Stuff reports:

Air New Zealand is accused of “rushing” to make up to 1460 cabin crew employees redundant, following news earlier this week of 387 pilot redundancies. …

The head of aviation at union E tū, Savage, said Air NZ was speeding into the redundancy process.

“The company’s plan to lay off thousands of people while the country is still in lockdown is the wrong move. It’s too rushed and it doesn’t need to be.

“That is not what fair consultation looks like and is very disappointing to see a once proud company get it so wrong. They risk destroying the very organisation they are trying to save,” he said.

“The wage subsidy, Air New Zealand’s cash reserves, and the government loan means we have the time to properly work through a process and look to the future.

Saying the layoffs are too rushed is farcical.

Let me make this simple.

There are no flights. There will be very few flights for years to come.

The decision to lay staff off has been well signalled, and if anything is overdue. It is impossible for Air NZ to survive without the redundancies. In fact it may not survive, even with them. I suspect they will have to make further cuts before long.

They have lost 90% of their revenue. To only be reducing staff numbers by 20% is in fact heroic.

It is tragic for the many great staff who are losing their jobs, but there is no point in pretending that this could be avoided by talking about it for a few more days or weeks.

NBC reported:

Sen. Bernie Sanders ended his presidential campaign, he announced Wednesday, leaving former Vice President Joe Biden as the apparent Democratic presidential nominee.

“I have concluded that this battle for the Democratic nomination will not be successful, and so today I am announcing the suspension of my campaign,” Sanders told supporters in a livestream, saying he wished he could provide supporters with “better news” but “I think you know the truth.”

“We are now some 300 delegates behind Vice President Biden and the path to victory is virtually impossible,” he said. Sanders, I-Vt., called Biden “a very decent man who I will work with to move our progressive ideas forward.”

This is no surprise, but it does mean that Biden can now start campaigning as the de facto nominee. Barring deaths, either Biden or Trump will be President next year.

The winner will be the oldest person ever elected President. Reagan was 73 years and 349 days at the start of his 2nd term.

If Trump wins he’ll be 74 years and 220 days on 20 January 2021.

If Biden wins he’ll be 78 years and 61 days on 20 January 2021.

Stuff reports the initial Green Party List is:

1. Marama Davidson
2. James Shaw
3. Jan Logie
4. Eugenie Sage
5. Teanau Tuiono
6. Julie Anne Genter
7. Chloe Swarbrick
8. Golriz Ghahraman
9. Elizabeth Kerekere
10. Ricardo Menéndez March

Tuiono was No 16 last election. He hasn’t been placed above three female MPs because they think he should be. He is there because he has a penis, and they don’t. Yes their rules require men to be equally represented in the top ranks of the list.

If the Greens get 5% the top six get in.

If they get 6% Chloe gets back.

If they get 7% Golriz is back also.

Jesus was crucified 1,990 years ago on the 7th of April 30 AD. His crucifixion is regarded as a historical fact. Early references include:

• A letter written around 73 AD referring to the execution of the wise King of the Jews
• Josephus in the work Antiquities of the Jews in 93AD
• Tactitus in the work Annals in 116 AD

Regardless of whether or not you believe anything else about Jesus, it is unarguable that his crucifixion changed the world.

Stuff reports:

Kiwis will know two days before the end of the four-week lockdown period whether or not the lockdown will be extended, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced. …

She said Cabinet would make and publicise a decision about whether or not the lockdown would be extended on 20 April, two days before the forecast end date.

“It is my intention that on the 20th of April, two days before the lockdown is due to finish, Cabinet will make a decision on our next steps. That’s because we need to use the most up to date data that we have to make that decision.”

“That means, if we are ready to move to Alert Level 3 business we will have two days to implement arrangements.”

I think this shows the lack of understanding of business.

Many businesses will need more than 48 hours notice to properly re-open. There are shifts and rosters to be organised, materials and supplies to be ordered etc etc.

The Cabinet should meet twice next Week. On Tuesday they should sign off on what Level 3 will mean in detail. What it means for businesses, schools etc. And then no later than Friday they should make the decision on if we go to Level 3 the following Wednesday.

The more notice you can give, the quicker the economy can start to recover.

The Herald reports:

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has spoken of the “huge tensions” between looking after the health of New Zealanders but also saving the country’s economy – and he wants to come out of the level 4 lockdown as quickly as possible.

“We are hearing the calls [about the economy] and the calls are massive all around the country in every respect. In terms of the economic analysis, we have a lot of work going on as to what this all means,” Peters told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB today.

“The number one priority is to get us out of this level 4 to some level far more manageable, sustainable and durable while we rebuild the economy.

“Health is an imperative but it cannot be at all costs. If it’s at all costs, we can’t afford to pay for it. We’ll be broke. We have to be rational, sane and keep our feet on the ground and keep a commonsense approach.

“There are huge tensions but enabling the economy to pay for the health delivery that is going to be critical here and in the months ahead is also very important.”

What Peters is saying is in stark contrast to Ardern who is saying there is no trade off.

Newstalk ZB reports:

After an uphill battle, Dunedin’s Baldwin St has reclaimed its world record.

Yes, those out for their government-mandated daily walk can add the world’s steepest street to their route.

Guinness World Records has reversed its controversial decision to strip Baldwin St of its claim to fame, admitting its measuring method had been wrong.

The street was dethroned by Ffordd Pen Llech in Harlech, Wales, last July.

The backtrack was thanks to months of hard work by Dunedin surveyor Toby Stoff, who argued that because the record-setting bid was measured on the inside verge of a curve, it greatly exaggerated Ffordd Pen Llech’s steepness and disadvantaged Baldwin St, which is straight.

Stoff campaigned hard for his appeal, even travelling to Wales to measure the opposition himself.

This week Guinness said after checking it out, and getting expert opinions, Stoff was right.

In an email to Stoff, Guinness also said it would use the right methodology for all future record bids.

”Guinness World Records takes appeals of this nature very seriously and we have thoroughly investigated the claim,” it wrote.

“Following a review of your survey report, as well as consulting with industry specialists, we have concluded that for the ‘steepest street’ record title the best practice for gradient is to take the measurement from the centreline of the street.

“As a result we will be reinstating Baldwin Street as the Guinness World Records title holder with a value of 34.8 per cent.”

This is excellent news to cheer the nation up. We have beaten those Welsh bastards with their fake claim!

Toby Stoff should be made a member of the Order of New Zealand for this achievement. He is surely one of our 20 greatest living New Zealanders.