Sanders big win in Nevada may have him unstoppable.

Five Thirty Eight not projects the possible outcomes as:

1. Sanders majority 46%
2. Contested convention 40%
3. Biden 9%
4. Bloomberg 4%

They also project that even if there is a contested convention, Sanders is forecast to have a plurality of delegates 70% of the time, so 70% x 40% = 28% which added to the 46% chance for a majority means there is a 3 in 4 (74%) chance Sanders will be the candidate as there would be civil war if he has the most delegates but is not made the candidate.

Just as the pundits were wrong on Trump’s electability, maybe they will be wrong on Sanders. But his policies along with his long time defence of communist countries will give the GOP a lot to work with. Vowing to take away every American’s health insurance is risky, to put it mildly. Many establishment Democrats fear he is unelectable.

The hardcore anti Trump voters will still vote for him. But will he appeal to Independents? Or can he get those who normally don’t vote to the polls?

If I was in the US I would very very reluctantly vote for Sanders if he was the candidate. His policies will be an economic disaster that will put millions of people out of work. It is fair to call Sanders a major threat to the US economy.

But Trump is a major threat to the United States itself, and especially the rule of law. So there is no scenario in which I could vote for him. You can recover from an economic recession, but you can’t recover from a President who thinks the job of the Justice Department is to only apply the law to his political opponents.

Brian Fallow writes:

A centre-left Government should not be happy that in the year to June 2019 — its first full year in office — it has not moved the dial on income inequality at all.

A standard measure of inequality, called the Gini coefficient, at 33.9 is as bad as it has been at any time in National’s last nine years in power and higher than it was before the global financial crisis.

Yep income inequality increased under Labour, while it didn’t increase under National. Inconvenient facts.

The higher the Gini coefficient, the more unequal income distribution is. Here’s the Stats data:

• 2008: 32.9
• 2017: 32.9
• 2019: 33.9

So not only did income inequality not get worse under National (which would surprise many as there were hundreds of articles claiming it was now a crisis), it has worsened under Labour (yet almost all the articles have stopped).

Stuff reports:

Hamilton will be the headquarters for a new commission tasked with reviewing miscarriage of justice claims.

Justice Minister Andrew Little made the announcement on Friday and has appointed Colin Carruthers QC to head the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC).

Carruthers will serve as chief commissioner of the CCRC for 18 months.

Two really good decisions.

I think it is really important the Commission not be based in Wellington. That would increase the risk it is seen as part of the public service, and that it would get too close to the Ministry of Justice etc.

The appointment of Carruthers as Chief Commissioner is an excellent one. He is one of NZ’s top QCs and has huge experience both prosecuting and defending cases in court.

I’ve been a longtime supporter of NZ having such a Commission. Good to see it becoming a reality.

Stuff reports:

The Government’s headline policy to cut the price of electric vehicles by up to $8000 has stalled in first gear after NZ First ministers halted it.

The policy had two parts: a Clean Car Discount, or “feebate” which would subsidise the cost of cleaner vehicles by making polluting vehicles cost more and a Clean Car Standard, which was designed to encourage importers to import cars with better emissions standards.

Green co-leader James Shaw said if NZ First ultimately decided to block the policy, his party would take it to the election.

Oh take it to the election – that will make Winston shake in his boots.

Has there ever been a more feeble party in Government?

They are turning a blind eye to Winston’s dodgy Foundation, false donation returns, secret donors, policies to benefit donors etc and what do they get in return? He carries on humiliating them every day by blocking everything from the Kermadecs sanctuary to their clean car policies. He even got their carbon neutral bill watered down to toothlessness.

Is there any limit to how far they’ll debase themselves to keep Winston happy?

They could grown a spine and say unless these policies get supported by NZ First, they’ll support a select committee inquiry into PGF grants that have benefited NZF donors or will block any moving of the Ports of Auckland.

Appeasing Winston has failed miserably, so what have they got to lose?

Sums it all up rather well.

Inside Wellington makes the case that Wellington is in crisis. His summary is:

• Sewage systems are broken
• Water systems are breaking
• Congestion is grinding the city to a halt
• Let’s Get Wellington Moving is broken
• Buses are broken
• Housing is broken
• Core parts of the city, including it’s heart, Civic Square, are broken

The problem is:

We’ve failed to invest in the basics in place of vanity and legacy projects perhaps because they are more attractive to a politician.

Strong leadership is needed to fix this. Is the Council up to it?

The Herald reports:

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is emphatically denying he or any of his MPs sent covert photos of reporters investigating the NZ First Foundation to a Whale Oil-linked blog.

The photos, which emerged on BFD blog last week, showed Stuff and RNZ reporters – who have been looking into the mysterious NZ First Foundation – meeting with former NZ First President Lester Gray.

Peters’ denial today comes after Peters and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern have come under considerable pressure over the photos, which were leaked to the BFD blog last week.

Although Peters told media today he does not know who took the photos and who sent them to the blog, he confirmed this afternoon it was not any of his MPs.

“Let there be no doubt that after caucus today I can confirm no NZ First Minister or MP sent any photos to any website,” he tweeted before Question Time this afternoon.

The BFD will be pleased with all the publicity no doubt resulting in increased traffic to the blog.

As for Winston’s denial, it is ridiculously thin. All he has ruled out is that an MP personally e-mailed the photos. He has not ruled out that it was a ministerial staffer, a parliamentary staffer, a party staffer, a NZ First Board member etc etc.

Also knowing how Winston plays semantic games he might be arguing that no MP sent photos to a website, but they did send photos to a person.

Speaking to Magic Talk again today, Peters said he had “no idea” how the photos and the videos ended up on the blog.

“I’m a busy man, I’m flat out – I’m not wasting my time with this. I have no idea who did what or when.”

But senior NZ First MP and Minister Tracey Martin told media this morning she did know who took the photos – but wouldn’t say who.

I find it hard to believe that Tracey Martin could know who took the photos, and Winston doesn’t.

The Guardian reports:

The US defence secretary, Mark Esper, warned that US alliances including the future of Nato were in jeopardy if European countries went ahead with using Chinese Huawei technology in their 5G networks.

Esper also warned future intelligence cooperation would be at risk, as the US would no longer be certain its communications networks were secure.

His remarks at the Munich security conference on Saturday, bolstered by similar warnings from the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, remove any doubt that the US sees finding an alternative to Huawei as central to its own security.

The US is being explicit that it will retaliate against countries that use Huawei. So let’s not pretend any decision made by the NZ Government is not being influenced by this pressure.

Newsroom reports:

His own Labour tribe, including the Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, and cabinet ministers and numerous MPs old and new, was there in force, with both Green Party co-leaders and the leader and two ministers from NZ First. The Labour list was a roll call of the past four decades: Jim Sutton, Rick Barker, Ross Robertson, Trevor Mallard, Annette King back from the High Commission in Canberra, Bob Harvey, Maryan Street, George Hawkins. There was Richard Prebble from the deep Labour past and Phil Goff from the Independent present. Helen Clark was overseas. 

There were mandarins, officials, lobbyists, High Commissioners and veterans. Most of all there were mates. 

But the breadth of Moore’s political history and impact, and personal warmth and relationships, was most evident by the blue party grandees who came to pay tribute: National leaders Sir Jim McLay, Jim Bolger, Dame Jenny Shipley, Sir Bill English, Don Brash, Sir John Key, and Simon Bridges. 

Beyond them, there seemed to be almost as many National MPs as Labour: Sir Don McKinnon pushing Paul East in his wheelchair, Sir Lockwood Smith, John Luxton, Murray McCully, Simon Power, Katherine Rich, Philip Burdon, John Banks, Gerry Brownlee, Scott Simpson, Chris Bishop and Paul Goldsmith.

Great to see so many MPs and former MPs there from across the spectrum.

I think all seven living National Party leaders attended. As best as I can tell from the story, there were two Labour leaders there and four not there.

The Green Party Campaign Director e-mail:

Kia ora

I won’t lie, the last two polls aren’t looking good for us. Last night’s poll marks the second in a row that indicate we are at risk of falling below the 5% threshold.

So the Greens are warning their supporters they are at risk of being wiped out. What they need isn’t more money, but more spines to stand up to Winston.

No minor party in the history of Aotearoa has ever entered government and then returned to parliament at the next election.

That is false on pretty much every level. United Future, ACT and the Maori Party have all been in Government and been returned at a subsequent election. So has the Jim Anderton Party.

The NZTU released:

After pressure from the Taxpayers’ Union, Education Minister Chris Hipkins has now confirmed he will close Tuturumuri School – a taxpayer-funded school with a roll of zero.Last week, the Taxpayers’ Union visited Tuturumuri and made inquiries with the Minister’s office. As of Friday, Minister Hipkins was still considering the matter. Then yesterday, just hours after the Union publicised the story, the Minister confirmed to media that he is closing the school. He apparently told staff earlier in the day.Taxpayers’ Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke says: “This decision is a belated victory for taxpayers and common sense. The Minister has spared himself serious embarrassment by getting this matter sorted just days after we started asking questions.”

Yep the school had zero students but four staff! If it were not for NZTU pressure, the school may have remained “open” for many more months.

There’s an article on The Spinoff (of course) calling for school mufti days to be renamed because of the colonial connotations! The buzz words in the article are wonderful. They include:

• subjugated culture
• cultural appropriation
• British imperialism
• Entitled officers
• militaristic language
• Anglo-Celtic dominance

I look forward to the Greens introducing a bill in Parliament banning the term “mufti day” in the public sector!

The ODT reports:

The Government is investigating whether it should give the Minister of Energy power to “reallocate electricity or gas in situations of acute electricity or gas shortage.”

The move has alarmed the Petroleum Exploration and Production Association of New Zealand, which suggests it would be ironic if the Government’s 2018 ban on offshore oil and gas exploration were to cause ministers then to intervene and claim there had been “market failure” because of a shortage of natural gas supplies.

The proposal is buried deep in a paper taken to the Cabinet by the current energy minister, Megan Woods, on December 11 last year and released proactively late last week. It covers a wide range of recommended actions aimed at alleviating energy poverty and keeping an eye on how the fast-changing electricity market develops.

The one-line reference suggests ministerial intervention could be developed aa “low-impact option” in the event of “market failure”.

“A possible option is the provision of emergency powers to reallocate electricity or gas in situations of acute electricity or gas shortage.”

The proposal has raised immediate concerns with PEPANZ, which sheeted the potential for shortages of natural gas – the fuel routinely used to generate electricity when wind and hydro-electric resources are not available, along with higher carbon-emitting coal, which has been used more heavily to generate electricity during the past two years due to tight gas supplies.

“It would be very strange for the government to ban offshore exploration for gas on one hand, and then to be so concerned about shortages,” said John Carnegie, PEPANZ’s executive director, in talking points released to BusinessDesk.

Yep the Government bans offshore exploration and then uses that as a reason for having to possibly intervene because there may be gas shortages!

Mickey Mouse wants his hat back.

One News reported:

An Auckland restaurant has had its windows smashed in two attacks since it hosted an ACT Party function on Waitangi Day – and its owner believes the attacks were politically motivated. 

The incidents took place over the weekend. 

Eden Bistro owner Sang Cho said it appeared a slingshot was used with a marble for the first incident, and the second “looked like they used some sort of rifle according to the CCTV footage”.

“Luckily, it happened in the middle of the night and no one was here, but I’m worried about my patrons that might come in,” he said. “They might be worried they might get fired at.”

He believes the attacks were linked to ACT leader David Seymour’s state of the nation address on Waitangi Day last week, during which he spoke out against the “hate speech regime”, firearms laws and the persecution of landlords.

Mr Cho said a neighbour told him that “about four o’clock in the morning he heard someone yelling out, ‘F*** ACT Party, f*** David Seymour!'” 

Mr Seymour said there is “no place for violence or vandalism in New Zealand politics” and Mr Cho “certainly doesn’t deserve to be caught in the crossfire”. 

“I understand these losers have left a bit more evidence than they realise and I would like to debate them on the issues outside Auckland Central Station,” Mr Seymour said. 

I hope the Police catch those responsible.

Data is here.

Labour claimed their families package would be trasnformational and make a huge difference to poverty.

Well the data out this week shows the number of households in “poverty” (low income) is the same in 2019 as it was in 2016 and the number of households that are materially deprived is higher in 2019 than 2016. Basically the changes between 2018 and 2019 are of the same magnitude as occurs most years.

List MPs David Carter and Nicky Wagner announced they will retire at the election, as well as Invercargill MP Sarah Dowie.

This takes a but of pressure off the list, noting Paula Bennett said she is going list only. So if National gets the same number of seats as last time, all existing List MPs can be accommodated and room for at least one more.

Will be interesting to see who stands for Invercargill. It is a moderately safe seat, but not one to be taken for granted.

I’ll especially miss David Carter. Apart from having known him for 25 years, we have twice ended up running marathons together (New York and Queenstown).

Stuff reports:

The legal tests for abortions after 20 weeks has been made more restrictive in the proposed abortion legalisation bill. …

Originally this test would just be that a doctor believed it was necessary to preserve the wellbeing of the mother. Under the new test that medical practitioner would have to consult another medical practitioner.

So for the very few abortions after 20 weeks, the process is not much changed from the status quo. The big change is for abortions before 20 weeks, where there will be no hoops to jump through anymore, which is good.

Other areas of the bill came through with minor changes, such as safe zones outside clinics where protest could be banned and conscientious objection measures. …

I’m against so called safe zones, or no protest zones. I don’t like people who protest outside abortion protesters but they should be allowed to do so.

There was a push by Green MP Jan Logie to change the term “women” in the bill to “pregnant person”.

A terrible blow against all the pregnant men out there.

NZ First have now predicated its support of the bill on a referendum being attached, as it was for the End of Life Choice bill. 

NZ First MP Darroch Ball has filed an amendment to this effect but it is unlikely to pass as the vast majority of the House do not believe a referendum should be used.

There will not be a referendum.

Danyl McL writes:

But last week the dark gods of politics seemed to go out of their way to endorse Simon Bridges’ decision to rule out Winston Peters from a future National-led coalition. Bridges has been rewarded with a Serious Fraud Office investigation into the New Zealand First Foundation and more murky allegations around the same foundation showing that it’s been quietly taking donations from the racing industry, while Peters is the sector’s benevolent minister of racing. There have been two polls showing National ahead of Labour and New Zealand First out of parliament, and Bridges is slowly clawing his way up the preferred prime minister ratings.

And Peters himself has rewarded Bridges by performing as the absolute worst version of himself, indulging in classic Peters-style antics, drowning out the prime minister’s electorally vital attempts to remind the voters how much she believes in kindness, forcing her to declare that yes, she still stands by him, absolutely she trusts him, no further comments please; making her look weaker every day.

The timing was near perfect in terms of ruling Peters out. I recall several commentators scoffing that it was a hasty or bad decision by Bridges. Doubt they think that today.

I’m not sure one can actually refer to Ardern as the Prime Minister anymore. It is clear she has no control over NZ First Ministers and is unable to do anything when they break Cabinet rules, apart from lamely suggesting they should read the Cabinet Manual (advice she should take herself).

It is more like she is a co Prime Minister. She has control over some Ministers, but not all. And while she can veto policy decisions, so can Winston.

So Bridges is attacking extremely unpopular things, like organised crime and the deputy prime minister, targets that his political opponents (sometimes rather bafflingly) support. This redefines the choice architecture for swing voters. Their decision is not “Jacinda versus Simon”, but rather: “Whose side are you on: Simon Bridges or the Mongrel Mob?” Or “Do you prefer a government with Winston Peters’ endless scandal and drama and inane nonsense, or one without?”

I wonder which of those two is more unpopular?

And the Green Party under Russel Norman and Metiria Turei was an anti-establishment party (Turei described it as “an anti-establishment party in the heart of the establishment”), critiquing the security services, the political donation laws, the lobbyists swarming around the last government (and now this one) like bluebottles to a dead cat. This was politically popular – the party once polled as high as 18%, and its internal research showed that as many as a third of New Zealanders were potential green voters. But now the Green Party occupies an ideologically incoherent space bounded by technocratic centrism and campus wokeness, characterised by an obsequious, fawning fear towards Peters and New Zealand First. On current polling it’s not at all certain they’ll be returned to parliament.

This comes from a former member of their national campaign team.

Stuff reported:

For more than half a century, governments all over the world trusted a single company to keep the communications of their spies, soldiers and diplomats secret.

The company, Crypto AG, got its first break with a contract to build code-making machines for US troops during World War II. Flush with cash, it became a dominant maker of encryption devices for decades, navigating waves of technology from mechanical gears to electronic circuits and, finally, silicon chips and software.

The Swiss firm made millions of dollars selling equipment to more than 120 countries well into the 21st century. Its clients included Iran, military juntas in Latin America, nuclear rivals India and Pakistan, and even the Vatican.

But what none of its customers ever knew was that Crypto AG was secretly owned by the CIA in a highly classified partnership with West German intelligence. These spy agencies rigged the company’s devices so they could easily break the codes that countries used to send encrypted messages.

Best purchase ever I’d say.

Of course this means we should be somewhat sceptical when the US Government says don’t use Huawei because there may be backdoors, when in fact the biggest user of backdoors is the US Government!

Stuff reports:

Public health officials are denying Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s claim human waste breached the walls of south Auckland’s Middlemore Hospital. …

CMDHB, which in 2019 said such claims were untrue, has now responded to the prime minister’s statement.

“Despite the dramatic language used previously around sewage issues at Middlemore Hospital, the sewage leaks were small,” a spokeswoman said.

She confirmed one incident in the Scott Building in November 2017, but said it was the result of a cracked sewer pipe joiner.

Pipe joinery also required replacement in one of Middlemore’s retail areas in October 2017.

However, there was “no sewage spilling into the building” and leaks were “immediately repaired”, CMDHB’s spokeswoman said.

Ardern has been told many many times her claims are false. Yet she keeps repeating them – just days after she claimed she wanted a positive truthful campaign.

The Independent reports:

Rebecca Long-Bailey has vowed to change the law to prevent women’s refuges excluding trans women, telling Labour members to “stop having this debate”.

I trust women’s refuges to decide for themselves whom to admit. Campaigning to change the law so they can’t decide is unlikely to be a vote winner.

So hey will be great if Long-Bailey wins. That should keep the Conservatives in until 2030.