Will Hipkins be the fly in the ointment?

Newshub reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will head to Australia this weekend to meet with Malcolm Turnbull.

The Prime Minister said she will not be meeting with Foreign Minister Julie Bishop.

Asked whether she expected the dual citizenship controversy to be raised, and whether she would apologise on behalf of Labour’s Chris Hipkins, she said: “We were not responsible for that and therefore there is nothing to apologise for.”

Ms Bishop previously threatened that she would find it “very difficult to build trust with Labour” if the party formed a Government, after Mr Hipkins asked questions in the New Zealand Parliament about dual citizenship. 

She’s not responsible for what Chris Hipkins did?

One of the big trans-tasman issues is Australia’s decision to triple tertiary fees for NZers studying there. Normally the key Minister to negotiate with Australia on this issue would be our Tertiary Education Minister, Chris Hipkins.

But Hipkins is toxic to the Australian Government, so somehow NZ will have to negotiate this issue without having our Minister involved in the negotiations.

No Barclay prosecution

Stuff reports:

Former National Party MP Todd Barclay will not be prosecuted by police after he once again refused to speak to them.

Police reopened an investigation into allegations Barclay, the former MP for Clutha-Southland, illegally recorded a staff-member after it emerged in June that former prime minister Bill English had been a key witness in the case.

Barclay was accused of secretly recording the conversations of his staffer Glenys Dickson. It is illegal to record a conversation you are not a part of in New Zealand.

Police have now closed the case as they have insufficient evidence. No warrants were executed and Barclay again refused to be interviewed. 

This is no surprise at all.

tax credits lead to tax avoidance

Stuff reports:

Companies will get a slice of their research and development spending back under the new Government. 

Science, Research and Innovation Minister Megan Woods confirmed the Labour, NZ First and Green Government would be reintroducing research and development tax credits. …

One week before the election, the former Science and Innovation Minister Paul Goldsmith said tax credits were not in National’s plans because they were difficult to budget for.

“The problem with tax rebates is that it does complicate the whole tax system and it is very difficult to find out exactly what it is costing you.”

Goldsmith said accountants could easily write-off business spending as R&D when it was not, meaning companies would get away with paying less tax.

“Accountants are usually pretty innovative themselves … What you see is a reduction in the company tax over time and that grows and grows.”

The Government says it wants less corporate tax avoidance but this policy will see far more companies avoid tax. As Paul Goldsmith said, a lot of expenditure can be classified as research and development once you learn you effectively get given money by the Government if you do so.

TVNZ referred to the Police

I missed this announcement on 18 October:

On 18 October 2017, the Electoral Commission referred Television New Zealand to Police in response to complaints about the rebroadcasting of the Te Karere programme on Election Day.  In the Electoral Commission’s view, the programme contained statements likely to influence any elector as to the party or candidate for whom the elector should or should not vote and rebroadcasting the programme on 23 September 2017 before 7pm breached section 197(1)(g)(i) of the Electoral Act 1993.

This is potentially quite serious.

The Government already has a TPP solution

Radio NZ reports:

Ms Ardern also said the government would try to find a solution on foreign home buyers before she left for the APEC meetings next week.

She said if the government was able to find the right mechanism, it could legislate against purchases of existing properties by non-residents before the TPP trade deal is ratified.

Ms Ardern told Morning Report that would remove one of the government’s main stumbling blocks to signing the TPP, and that would then allow the government to focus on dispute settlement provisions in the trade deal.

The TPP allows countries to impose stamp duty on foreign buyers of property. A 100% stamp duty on foreign purchases would be an effective ban. So Labour already have a mechanism to achieve their policy goal.

Minister for Children wants to repeal anti-smacking law

Radio NZ reports:

New Zealand First campaigned in 2014 on holding a referendum to repeal the law, saying it was passed in 2007 despite overwhelming public opposition.

Ms Martin told Checkpoint with John Campbell that the law had had a chilling effect on parents, including herself.

She said she used to smack her children sometimes if they simply refused to listen.

“A smack on the hand, a smack on the leg, I absolutely did yes.

“Normally it was when one of my children would decide they weren’t going to listen to me, they weren’t going to follow my instructions, and so it was a stand-off between myself and a child and I’d got to the stage where I’d explained myself for a number of minutes and now we were in a situation where I was saying ‘you need to do as you are told’.

“And if the answer was still ‘no’ then it was a smack on your leg and go to your room and then we’ll talk about it later once you figure out that I’m the parent and you are the child.”

The Minister for Children presumably speaks on behalf of the Government on children issues, so this is going to cause some huge tensions with Labour and Greens.

Holocaust denial in NZ

Stuff reports:

An Iranian diplomat has been accused of fuelling radicalism with a fiery, anti-Israel speech at an Auckland mosque.

Jewish community leaders want Hormoz Ghahremani, first secretary of the Iranian Embassy, to be expelled after he appeared alongside speakers who denied the Holocaust and called for the “surgical removal” of Israel.

In his speech, Ghahremani said Israel was trying to “deceive the world” by pretending to be an advocate of peace when in fact it was fuelling terrorism and extremism in the Middle East to divert attention from the Palestine issue.

Muslim nations needed to unite against “the anti-human regime of Israel and discern their common enemy with profound insight”, he said.

At the same event a visiting Iranian cleric, Hojatoleslam Shafie, said Israel “hides behind a fake phenomenon” of the Holocaust and that it was a conspiracy to infiltrate Islamic countries.

Anyone who shares a platform with a Holocaust denier gives them legitimacy and implicit endorsement.

He said Quds Day was established “to deal a powerful punch to the mouth of the cancerous tumour known as evil Israel,” and cited Imam Khomeini as saying that “if every Muslim were to spit in the face of Israel, Israel would drown”.

The annihilation of the “Zionist regime” had begun, he said, and Israel would not last for another 25 years.

Community elder Sayed Taghi Derhami, a Mt Albert accountant, told attendees at the event that Israel was a “cancerous gland” that had to be “surgically removed”.

Such hate in an accountant.

Ghahremani told Stuff he agreed the speech could be seen as inflammatory, but it had to be taken in the context of the event at which it was given. He spoke at a gathering to mark the annual Quds Day, initiated by Iran in the 1970s to support Palestinians and oppose Zionism. 

Contacted at the Iranian Embassy in Wellington, Ghahremani said his speech was supposed to be private and he was upset it had been put on the internet. “It was something private, a small gathering. I was there to reflect the position of the Iranian Government.

“We do not recognise the Israeli Government, that’s not a secret. But we are not against their existence.”

Asked if such inflammatory speeches could fuel radicalism in the Muslim community, Ghahremani said: “If it’s spoken in public places yeah, you’re right. But it was a small, private gathering that happens once a year. This year they make a mistake to shoot a film, to put it on YouTube.”

Actually it is worse in private. At least in public we know it is happening and can counter it.

Taking pay equity to nonsensical levels

Stuff reports:

The disparity in pay between New Zealand’s top men and women rugby players is on the new Government’s agenda.

Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson was asked on Three’s The Nation on Saturday if the national women’s team the Black Ferns should paid the same as the men’s team the All Blacks.

“I will be looking forward to a conversation with NZ Rugby about how they will achieve the Government’s goal of pay equity,” Robertson said.

So Grant thinks it is his job to talk to the rugby union about how much they pay their players!

Of course the Black Ferns get paid less than the All Blacks. And the NZ Mens Netball team get paid less than the Silver Ferns.

I happen to think the Black Ferns should get better pay from the NZRFU. But I sure as hell don’t think it has anything to do with the Government.

Good to see the Minister of Finance though focused on the big issues facing NZ.

Diplomat should not have been allowed to return

Stuff reports:

A Kuwaiti ambassador who fled serious assault charges in New Zealand returned for 10 days to tie up loose ends and hold a farewell party.

Police were powerless to act due to diplomatic immunity – a form of legal protection that ensures diplomats are given safe passage and can’t be prosecuted under a host country’s laws.

Absolutely we must respect diplomatic immunity. But after he had left NZ, we should not have allowed to return.

Razouqi’s return “to conclude his affairs” in New Zealand – requested on March 16, 2016 – was on the condition it was for no more than 10 days.

This should not have been granted in my opinion.

Claiming victory from inaccuracy

I rarely criticise other polling companies, due to professional courtesy. NZ is generally well served by the various research companies and we saw Reid Research and Colmar Brunton get some very accurate pre-election polls.

Some other companies were less accurate, and that is also fine. All companies have polls that are less accurate than others. Curia has. Sometimes your poll is a bit dated. Sometimes you’re at one end of the margin of error. So long as one is constantly self-assessing your results and methodology, there is no shame that some polls are less close to an actual result than others.

But what annoys me is when a company tries to spin an inaccurate result as accurate. That just insults the intelligence.

So I can’t let past this release from Roy Morgan, which I quote from:

The final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll of the campaign titled: ‘NZ Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured’ predicted a tight result with Labour favoured to form Government over the incumbent National-led coalition.

That poll predicted Labour/Greens would get 48.5% and National 40%. In fact National beat Labour/Greens by 2% rather than trailed by 8.5%.

Roy Morgan predicted a potential coalition of Labour/Greens/Maori Party would hold 62 seats in Parliament compared to 58 seats for the National-led Opposition. As it turned out the Maori Party failed to hold their two seats in Parliament which instead went to Labour and the combination of Labour/Greens/NZ First will govern with a majority of 63 seats compared to the National-Act NZ opposition which holds 57 seats.

This makes it sound like they were just slightly out. Actually the difference were large. Their poll and the results were:

  • National 50 seats, got 56
  • Labour 49 seats, got 46
  • Greens 11 seats, got 8
  • NZ First 7 seats, got 9

As I said there is nothing wrong with not getting the result right. They were disadvantaged by finishing their poll on 10 September, 13 days before the election. What I object to is the press release which selectively quotes their poll to make it look more accurate than it was.

When do we see the secret addendum?

NBR reported:

Meanwhile, Mr Peters revealed there is a 38-page addendum to the coalition agreements that have already been publicly released. It will be released later, he said.

The document was a briefing to government ministers, laying out specific rules and processes over how they should address issues like accountability and media strategy while working as a cohesive government.

I’m amazed that the media haven’t reported on the existence of this secret addendum and demanded it be immediately published.

Did the KGB kill Kennedy?

The Herald reports:

Lee Harvey Oswald met a senior KGB agent months before the assassination of John F Kennedy, documents from the newly-released trove have revealed.

Oswald met agent Valeriy Vladimirovich Kostikov in Mexico City’s Soviet embassy two months before the president was shot and killed in Dallas on November 22, 1963, the Daily Mail reported.

Kostikov was a senior agent in the 13th Department which was responsible for assassinations.

That’s a mighty big coincidence.

Oral questions

Oral questions are proportional to the number of non-executive MPs a party has. These numbers are:

  • National 56
  • Labour 24
  • NZ First 4
  • Greens 4
  • ACT 1

In a three week session there are 108 questions. So the average questions per sessions of nine days will be:

  • National 68 which is seven or eight a day
  • Labour 29 which is three most days and sometimes four
  • NZ First 5 so one every second day approx
  • Greens 5 so one every second day approx
  • ACT 1 so one every three weeks

So the average day will see eight questions from National, three from Labour and one from NZ First or Greens.

Smaug wins, Hobbits lose

Stuff reports:

The new Labour Government has promised to get the ball rolling on repealing the controversial ‘Hobbit law’ in its first 100 days in office.

Incoming Workplace Relations Minister Iain Lees-Galloway told Radio New Zealand that restoring worker’s rights was a priority.

“We’re looking to restore a lot of workers rights that have been diminished over the last nine years and that is a priority for us. It’s something that we want to have the legislation at least introduced within the first 100 days of government,” he said.

A huge win for the Australian union that tried to blackmail Peter Jackson with a global boycott.

The Hobbit law, the commonly referred name for the Employment Relations (Film Production Work) Amendment Bill, was passed through government in 2010 – at the time The Hobbit was being made.

It meant that workers in the film industry were put on a independent film contracts, rather than employee contracts.

The nature of film productions is such that having employees doesn’t work well. Your schedule changes constantly. You may need someone for a couple of days and then not again for a few weeks.

This law change will drive productions out of New Zealand, and destroy jobs.

Jones vs unions

The Herald reports:

Unions are firmly opposed to Shane Jones’ proposal to introduce a work-for-the-dole scheme for the unemployed, while bosses would support such an initiative in principle.

The newly-appointed Minister for Regional Economic Development said today he had been encouraged to look into the idea as part of the $1 billion extra funding to go to regional New Zealand.

Jones will lose this fight if the unions are against it, as Labour does what they say.

Catalonia declares independence

The Herald reports:

Catalonia is headed for a dramatic confrontation with Spain after the insurgent region’s parliament voted to declare independence and the government in Madrid gained the power to oust its separatist leadership.

The resolution approved by lawmakers in Barcelona said the establishment of Europe’s newest sovereign country had been set in motion. The portion of the text submitted to a vote included measures to ask all nations and institutions to recognize the Catalan Republic.

Meanwhile in Madrid, the Spanish Senate approved measures giving Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy the power to seize control of the Catalan administration via Article 155 of the 1978 constitution. The legislation already has come into force.

It is unclear if the majority of people in Catalonia do want independence. The recent vote was boycotted with a very low turnout.

Not sure how this one will end. Ideally there should be a proper vote on independence agreed to between both Spain and the regional government (as in Scotland). Unilateral action is unlikely to end well.

Zach Castles on defending capitalism

Zach Castles writes:

The incoming government makes no secret of its regard for capitalism as a “blatant” failure. This is despite nearly one billion people over the last 20 years having been lifted out of poverty because of it. Moreover, the very “neoliberalism” the incoming prime minister criticises, and yet refuses to define, has helped many Kiwis out of a life of welfare dependence and into the dignity of a job.

No one is saying capitalism is perfect. Especially Bill English. His entire social investment approach, one I had the privilege of working on government, anticipates this by accepting that governments must invest more money early on to reduce the cost of crime, health inequalities and intergenerational welfare dependence.

But to engage with Jacinda Ardern’s attempt at class warfare rather than to call it out is to New Zealand’s detriment.

Capitalism is what allows us to fund the welfare state, and health and education.

In a world of Brexit and Trump, and a media-branded upsurge against perceived “neoliberalism”, the question is no longer whether National is capable of reform, but how far it is prepared to redefine a centre ground that is rapidly shifting in the direction of Jeremy Corbyn, the far-left leader of the UK Labour Party. The fact that National and New Zealand First are not in government shows that this process is already underway. A fundamental schism between the socialist left’s unholy union with authoritarian populism on one side, and the liberal right on the other, is opening up.

Populism and socialism is always a bad measure.

Far from being in a “very, very dark place” as Paddy Gower was quick to assert, National has just been handed a golden opportunity. In fact, the biggest impact Bill English can make now on the National Party, more than at any other time in his political career, will be in these initial weeks and months.

As the party regroups and refocuses its efforts, National has never had a better opportunity to make capitalism cool again by re-making the case that it is the best tool we have to transform lives in a dangerous and uncertain world. Indeed, transforming lives through the investment approach is the essence of the Key-English legacy, and it is National’s task to defend that legacy and advance its cause vigorously in the next three years.

I agree.

More taxpayer funded lobbying

Stuff reports:

Health authorities in Wellington have door-knocked residents and local businesses in the suburb of Newtown as the owner of a local spice store applies for a new liquor licence.

It comes months after police admitted “poorly worded” communication after they were accused of attempting to drum up opposition to another liquor licence application.

On Wednesday, a Regional Public Health (RPH) regulatory officer visited homes and businesses near Silk Route Spices on Riddiford St, informing them about a liquor licence application under the company name of Liquor Hub Limited.

It’s one think for DHB staff to put in a submission reflecting their views. It is quite another for taxpayer funded staff to be door knocking around the neighbourhood trying to whip up opposition.

1st post election poll

Auckland Council’s $45 million PR bill for 234 comms staff

The Herald reports:

Auckland ratepayers are picking up a $45.6 million tab to employ 234 communication staff at Auckland Council and five council-controlled organisations, according to a leaked review.

A “confidential draft” of the review, obtained by the Weekend Herald, has uncovered a huge blowout in communication salary costs at four council bodies.

Between 2013 and 2017, salary costs soared by 75 per cent at Auckland Council, 87 per cent at Auckland Tourism, Events and Economic Development (Ateed) and 56 per cent at Auckland Transport.

You know if maybe the Council could cope with less than 234 spin doctors, then they wouldn’t have to stick up petrol tax by 10 cents a litre to fund their activities.

According to the communications review, a previous business case to improve communications at Auckland Council in 2014 largely failed. The 2014 goal was to reduce the number of communications staff to 92. Staff numbers have increased to 105.

Out of control.

Aucklanders revolt against Taxinda

The Herald reports:

Some Auckland motorists are threatening to fill up out of town, and even leave the city, to avoid a new regional petrol tax expected to be 10c a litre.

Comments flowing into the New Zealand Herald newsdesk this morning are running heavily against the new tax, planned by the new Labour-led Government to help fund light rail to the airport and other transport projects. …’\

Readers branded new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern “Taxinda” and named the tax the “Twyford Tax” after new Transport Minister Phil Twyford.

Tom and Julia Kinzett spoke for many in parts of the region that don’t have rail, commenting: “So again the majority are going to have to fork out for a selected few. What benefits are there for someone living in east or north Auckland?”

“I live in rural north Auckland. I have no choice but to use my car as there is no public transport,” another reader said.

Yep it is a tax on all of Auckland that will benefit just a few.

A congestion charge is a far more sensible way of funding transport – true user pays.

Foreign buyer ban unlikely to impact house prices

The Herald reports:

The Labour-led Government’s move to restrict foreign speculators from taking a chunk out of the property market is being questioned given a similar policy across the Tasman has done little to curb prices in Australia.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has told members of the public a bill to stop overseas buyers from purchasing existing homes would be introduced by Christmas.

Meanwhile, those in the property industry are questioning if restricting foreign buyers was the answer to the country’s housing crisis, given Australia, which already had a similar policy in place, was one of the most unaffordable countries globally.

It’s populism trying to scapegoat people with Chinese sounding surnames for house prices. It will have little impact.

Real estate agent Ollie Wall, from Graham Wall Real Estate, said there were not as many foreign buyers snapping up properties as the public thought.

“We sell properties to a lot of what would be considered foreigners, 99 per cent of them have New Zealand passports.”

Land Information New Zealand showed that in April to June 2017, 3 per cent of property transfers involved overseas tax resident buyers.

What is really going to impact affordability is interest rates as they start to rise.