Nash says Greens MOU hurting Labour

NewstalkZB reports:

Labour MP Stuart Nash has admitted the party’s agreement with the Greens is hurting its chances.

It comes as Labour’s support has slumped in the polls and Andrew Little has conceded he considered stepping down.

Mr Nash said ending the memorandum of understanding with the Greens isn’t up to him.

But he told Rachel Smalley voters aren’t happy with the Green Party co-leader’s admission of benefit fraud.

He predicts Labour will distance itself from the Greens as the election nears.

“What you are going to see in the next two months is Labour and Green go in different ways in terms of the way they are delivering their policy. I mean you are not going to see Andrew stand up and admit he’s a benefit fraudster.”

He said voters are unhappy with the Green’s co-leader’s admission of benefit fraud, despite what polling might suggest.

“A number of people I spoke to over the weekend had real concerns about what Metiria came out and admitted and the fact that she may well be the Deputy Prime Minster under Labour, but I don’t think that can happen now.”

The Greens are campaigning for people to be able to spend 15 years on the dole and never ever have to attend even a single job interview.

Labour MPs and candidates can say that isn’t their policy but they have the MOU with the Greens so their voters conclude a vote for Labour may lead to Metiria Turei becoming Minister of Social Welfare and Deputy Prime Minister, so they desert Labour.

Stuart Nash gets it. I suspect many Labour MPs are starting to get it. The issue isn’t Little (even though he has not done well) but their MOU with the Greens.

Little loses his seat according to Labour’s internal polling

Stuff reports:

Labour has been hit by a second hammer blow poll showing its popularity taking a dive – and this time the bad news comes from its own pollster.

A UMR Research poll provided to Labour, the pollster’s corporate clients and some other parties last week, and leaked to Stuff on Monday, showed Labour on 23 per cent – down six points from a similar poll in June.

Labour needs 23.1% party vote to get any List MPs (if they hold 27 electorate seats) so on this poll Andrew Little won’t even be returned as an MP.

Newshub poll

The Newshub poll is at Curia. Some differences from One News but not for Labour.

Newshub have also put up an archive of their last five years of polling. The data on whether people think Andrew Little is doing a good or poor job is telling.

What this shows is that Little did do well for the first six to nine months. But his disapprovals just kept rising and rising and his approvals also declined. So the net approval line plummeted from +28% to -15%.

He started off with just 17% saying he was doing a poor job but now it is at 45%.

School deciles to go

Nikki Kaye announced:

Education Minister Nikki Kaye today confirmed the Government will replace the decile system for schools with targeted funding to better support those students most at risk of not achieving.

“For too long schools have been stigmatised and wrongly judged by their decile number,” says Ms Kaye.

Deciles became a proxy for quality, and they’re not. There are some very good schools in low decile areas and some not so good schools in high decile areas.

“Today I’m announcing that the Cabinet has agreed to replace the decile system with a Risk Index that allows us to better target funding to schools with children and young people most at risk of not achieving due to disadvantage.

“We will also be replacing the equity index used to allocate disadvantage funding in early childhood education with the Risk Index.”

So the more students who are at risk of not achieving, the more funding the school gets. Actually targeting it on need.

“However, I’m pleased to be able to confirm that no school, early learning service or ngā kōhanga reo will see a reduction in their funding as a direct result of this change,” says Ms Kaye.

So existing funding will be grandfathered in. No school will get less.

Labour releases an internal poll showing their party vote has halved!

Newshub reports:

The Hui has obtained the results of an internal Labour Party survey of Waiariki which is currently held by Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, and the numbers make interesting reading.

It shows Labour candidate Tamati Coffey is trailing Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell by just 1.5 percent.

That is not the interesting part. Personally I strongly doubt that Coffey is near Flavell when you consider his majority last time and the fact Mana has now endorsed him.

Here is the interesting part:

Which of the following would you cast your party vote for?

  • National – 13.4 percent
  • Labour – 19.4 percent
  • The Greens – 12.1 percent
  • NZ First – 25.7 percent
  • The Māori Party – 18.9 percent
  • Another Party – 4.4 percent
  • Unsure – 6.1 percent

If you take away the undecideds, Labour is saying their poll has the party vote in Waiariki as:

  • National 14.3% (+9.2% from election)
  • Labour 20.7% (-18.1%)
  • Greens 12.9% (+4.8%)
  • NZ First 27.4% (+14.7%)
  • Maori Party 20.1% (-1.9%)

So Labour have released an internal poll showing their party vote has halved in Waiariki. I’m not sure the poll is that credible, but regardless why would you release a poll showing your party vote has plummeted?

 

Wellington going predator free

Newshub reports:

Wellington predator-free communities have snagged more than 5000 rats since introducing backyard trapping.

Next Predator Free Community spokesperson and “urban predator hunter” Kelvin Hastie says his suburb of Crofton Downs is seeing an explosion of native wildlife.

“Now we’ve got a population of kākā. We’re starting to see them hanging around in winter. We’ve also seen some rare lizards in our community.”

One of those rats is ours. We’ve got a trap and happy to be playing our part in helping make Wellington predator-free. Living fairly near Zealandia we already get amazing bird life, but hope to see even more.

Shorten calls for an Australian republic

NZ Herald reports:

Bill Shorten has vowed to take steps to make Australia a republic in his first term as prime minister, saying the country’s current head of state “is a foreign power”.

At the Australian Republic Movement’s gala dinner in Melbourne, he pointed to the words “carpe diem” on the ceiling of Melbourne’s Royal Exhibition Building.

“We must seize the day and become a republic,” he told the cheering crowd.

He promised a Shorten Labor government will take “the first real steps to make Australia a republic in the first term of government”.

 

That would include putting a “straightforward” ‘yes or no’ question to the Australian people. 

Not sure it is as simple as yes or no. You need to know what sort of republic it would be to sensibly vote on it.

Latest poll dire for Labour

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is at Curia. It has Labour at 24% which puts them on the verge of having no List MPs at all, including Leader Andrew Little. It is no surpise that Little revealed he had talked to colleagues about whether he should quit.

This is the lowest result for Labour in the One News poll since 1996.

I have little doubt that a major factor in Labour’s decline is the Greens welfare policy and associated defence of welfare fraud. This appeals to hard left voters (so attracted some Labour voters) but puts more centrist voters off Labour as they realise that a Labour/Green government could end up with policies where you can stay on the dole for 15 years and never have to even attend a job interview.

So the Greens went up 4% and Labour down 3%. But it is silly to see this as a win for the left. Labour on 24% simply can’t credibly be seen to lead a Government.

And last election they dropped 4% from late July to the September election. If this happened again they’d end up on 20%.

Is it possible Little will resign in a desperate move to save his seat in Parliament, hoping Jacinda can keep them over 24%? They did this in 1990 with Palmer resigning for Moore six weeks out, and Jacinda is already on the billboards.

National’s 2017 list

National has released it’s 2017 party list. The list above indicates who will come in at which approximate party vote percentage, if electorate seats do not change.

If National got the same vote as in 2014, and electorates do not change, the new MPs will be:

  1. Nicola Willis, list
  2. Agnes Loheni, list
  3. Paulo Garcia, list
  4. Matt King, list
  5. Simeon Brown, Pakuranga
  6. Andrew Falloon, Rangitata
  7. Harete Hipango, Whanganui
  8. Denise Lee, Maungakiekie
  9. Chris Penk, Helensville
  10. Erica Stanford, East Coast Bays
  11. Tim Van de Molen, Waikato
  12. Lawrence Yule, Tukituki
  13. TBA, Clutha-Southland

13 new MPs is a decent intake.

The demographic makeup of the likely caucus would be:

  • Gender – 34% female, 66% male
  • Ethnicity – 76% European, 12% Maori, 8% Asian, 3% Pasifika
  • Regions – 40% Northern, 18% Central NI, 18% Canterbury-Westland, 15% Lower NI, 8% Southern
  • Age – 20s 2%, 30s 17% 40s 29%, 50s 41% 60s 12%

A reasonably diverse projected caucus. In 2014 only 27% of the caucus was female so an increase to 34% is significant.

Preying on misery

The Herald reports:

So-called psychics on Sensing Murder were an “entertainment angle” to boost viewer numbers and detectives should focus on the benefit of prime-time exposure for cold cases, a researcher for the show told police.

The researcher told police “no matter what you think of the value (or otherwise) of psychics, Sensing Murder can be seen as a valuable opportunity to refresh attempts to get answers to some long-held unanswered questions”.

The show, and all those involved in it, prey in misery and suffering and bring false hope to families of victims. They should be ashamed of themselves and for promoting such bullcrap.

Police disagreed with internal emails released through the Official Information Act revealing that not one show in the 39 episodes filmed over more than a decade had provided a single piece of useful information.

Of course not, as psychics are either deluded or con artists.

Managing director of showmakers’ Screentime Philly De Lacey offered another reason for the show – she said it gave comfort and closure to the families of those who had died.

“That came from the researcher. That’s not the general view of the programme. I think the psychics are incredibly accurate.”

That have a 0% success rate. You make money out of people believing they are accurate.

TVNZ’s in-house lawyer Brent McAnulty responded to an OIA request about the show earlier this year, saying the “mediums do receive a fee for their appearance” but it wasn’t paid by TVNZ.

“The mediums all believe that they have a gift that they can assist others with and there is no intention to deceive whatsoever,” he said.

The mediums believe they have an ability to make money.

A TVNZ spokeswoman said the show was “compelling” for viewers and it wasn’t for the broadcaster to tell people what they should believe.

Oh crap. There is a difference between telling people what to believe and giving a weekly show to crooks and cranks.

Would they give a weekly show to neo-nazis to promote holocaust denial and say it isn’t for us to tell people what to believe?

Could Trump go independent?

I wonder if there is a scenario where Trump blames the Republican Party for his inability to pass healthcare reform and resigns from the Republican Party and sets up his own part – the MAGA Party.

The downside is that the Republicans in Congress might stop protecting him and he could face impeachment. But just as inpeachment hearings to a degree strengthened Clinton, could the same happen to Trump?

Compare and contrast

The Herald reports:

Police are investigating the death of a woman who is believed to have smoked synthetic cannabis.

Acting Detective Inspector Peter Florence said police were investigating the death of a 31-year-old woman who was found dead at an address in Kelston last night.

Police believe the woman may have been smoking synthetic cannabis a short time before her death, however, there may have been other contributing factors, he said.

The death has been referred to the Coroner who will ultimately determine the cause.

It is the ninth death linked to synthetic cannabis in Auckland this month.

So as I understand it:

  • Synthetic cannabis: 9 dead in one city in one month
  • Actual cannabis: 0 dead in all of New Zealand in 30 years

So that prohibition is working well eh.

EY under fire

The Herald report:

Several media organisations have withdrawn from the annual EY business journalism awards after an entry about one of the consultancy firm’s clients was removed.

The entry by journalist Karyn Scherer at NBR was an investigation published last year into alleged accounting irregularities at photocopier and printing company Fuji Xerox.

Following Scherer’s coverage, Japanese parent company Fujifilm last month released an independent report which found “inappropriate accounting” in operations in New Zealand and Australia between 2011 and 2016

Fuji Xerox was one of EY’s audit clients

EY withdrew the entry from this year’s awards, resulting in independent judge and journalist Rebecca Macfie’s resignation from the judging panel.

NBR today announced it would be withdrawing from the EY Business Journalism Awards entirely.

The Herald has also decided to withdraw its entries from the awards. …

Following NZME’s withdrawal, Fairfax has also decided to withdraw from the awards.

The awardsare basically now a joke, with three major media companies pulled out. EY need to have a very good explanation for their actions or there will be reputational damage.

Guest Post: The politics of superannuation

A guest post by Michael Littlewood:

Superannuation has been a messy political issue for much of the last 40 years.  When the government announced in March that the state pension age would increase from 65 to 67 in about 20 years, no-one seriously thought that would park the issue politically in this election year.  The government effectively admitted as much when it said that legislation to make the change (and also the change to the residency period) would have to wait until 2018.  According to Steven Joyce, “Scheduling the legislation in this way gives all political parties the opportunity to discuss their position with the public before it comes before Parliament.” (see here)

For me, that’s code for ‘Here’s a policy that we can give way on in any discussions we have with New Zealand First once the election numbers are in.’  Because, unsurprisingly, Labour has said that the pension will stay as it is but, more importantly (for pension policy), New Zealand First says the age will be 65, presumably forever.  This will probably be one of its ‘bottom lines’.

This is all very predictable.  It’s also an unsatisfactory way of dealing with the issues associated with pension, retirement and saving issues.

The triennial review of retirement income policies by the Retirement Commissioner isn’t working and needs to change.  The 2016 Review (published in December as a jokey on-line cartoon presentation) was so unsatisfactory that Michael Chamberlain and I decided to write The Missing 2016 Review – building trust for life beyond work (accessible at www.alt-Review.com.  We released that last Monday.

We described the Retirement Commissioner’s report as an evidence-free zone for her 34 recommendations/observations.  Our own report tries to set down everything that is known and that might be relevant to a needed national debate on all the issues associated with both public and private provision for retirement.  We cite 136 external reports and data sources with 250 footnotes and 265 URLs to take readers directly to online resources and reports.

All this means that we know quite a lot but not nearly enough for the kind of national debate we think is needed.  We posed 125 questions under 21 headings that New Zealand must answer.  A lot of those can’t be discussed without more, better data, some of which will take years to gather.

We identified the nine key issues or reforms that we see as essential to a sustainable, flexible, inclusive retirement income framework.  We listed them here in order of significance to us, starting with greater economic growth.  None of these key issues rated a mention in the Retirement Commissioner’s 2016 Review.

We suggest that the political parties could start with agreeing on the need for better data before we start the national discussion New Zealand now needs.  That discussion needs to be led by a group that gains everyone’s confidence by assembling impeccable evidence on things that matter.  We cite the Dunedin Multi-Disciplinary Health and Development Study as a model of what’s possible.

Once we have that impeccable evidence, the political parties can decide what’s important to them, policy-wise.  Our experience is that, once we know what’s really happening, the answers are usually clear.

Taxpayers currently spend a net $11 bn on New Zealand Superannuation and at least another $800 million on KiwiSaver tax breaks.  New Zealand should be at least curious whether taxpayers are getting good value today for that spending.

We think New Zealand has the best state pension in the developed world but our retirement income arrangements can certainly be made better, more flexible and more resilient.

The Missing 2016 Review recommends that New Zealand should aim for a 2020 equivalent of the 1993 Superannuation Accord, supported by a permanent research group.  That sounds like a ‘big, hairy, audacious goal’ but, signing up to that idea shouldn’t be too hard for the political parties.  Who could possibly object to finding out what’s really happening?

The review/reform process we have at the moment is unsatisfactory and needs to change.

The most incompetent administration?

Ryan Lizza writes:

The issue, he said, was that he believed Priebus had been worried about the dinner because he hadn’t been invited. “Reince is a fucking paranoid schizophrenic, a paranoiac,” Scaramucci said. He channelled Priebus as he spoke: “ ‘Oh, Bill Shine is coming in. Let me leak the fucking thing and see if I can cock-block these people the way I cock-blocked Scaramucci for six months.’ ”

This is the White House Communications Director talkibng about the White House Chief of Staff.

I can’t recall an administration, in any country, that is so incompetent and divided. They couldn’t even organise a piss up in a brewery let alone run the country. Despute having a majority in the House and the Senate they’ve been unable to pass any laws of significance, and their significant executive orders were done so badly they have been struck down in court.

I have worked in a Government, and for a Prime Minister. The stuff that is happening in the White House is impossible to conceive of having happened in a NZ PM’s Office. Sure you have office politics, but to have the Director of Communications refer to the Chief of Staff as a paranoid schizo *on the record* is just bizarre.

Scaramucci also told me that, unlike other senior officials, he had no interest in media attention. “I’m not Steve Bannon, I’m not trying to suck my own cock,” he said, speaking of Trump’s chief strategist. 

Must be such a happy place to work. Imagine you had a colleague say that about you to the media.

Minutes later, he tweeted, “In light of the leak of my financial info which is a felony. I will be contacting @FBI and the @TheJusticeDept #swamp @Reince45.” With the addition of Priebus’s Twitter handle, he was making public what he had just told me: that he believed Priebus was leaking information about him. The tweet quickly went viral.

And he tweeted that he is calling the FBI in to investigate the White House Chief of Staff – and again this is from the White House Director of Communications.

Commentators on Turei

Tim Beveridge writes:

Turei is no Jean Valjean, stealing a loaf of bread to feed her child. She is someone who, while studying for a law degree no less, has admitted defrauding the taxpayer over a period of three years, by failing to tell social welfare officials of the flatmates helping her to pay the rent in three of the five flats she lived in.

It wasn’t a case of lying to get through a couple of tough months. It spanned several years. Three different flats. As the Herald editorial wrote, it looks more “like a systematic attempt to rort the system”.

 

There must have been many occasions when the fraud was renewed, when a declaration had to be made. One can only wonder how many times a false declaration was made, or how many opportunities Turei would have had to set the record straight. And yet the fraud was either repeated, or persisted.

So how often did she lie on an official form? At least three times, but it might be at often as a dozen or more.

She is now attempting to cash in again on this dishonesty by turning it into political capital. It makes the Green’s welfare policy, in removing sanctions and investigations, look almost like an attempt to excuse her poor behaviour.

Most people on a benefit do not lie about their income.

But now some are seeing Turei as some sort of hero, and that her dishonesty is ok. That is, surely, an insult to all the honest people who don’t set their standards at that level, and those beneficiaries who struggle through difficult times without breaking the law. Not to mention the hard-working New Zealanders of all political stripes, who struggle to pay their mortgage, their rent, their power bills, their tax, and support their families, without breaking the law.

Yep.

Sure, no one is perfect. But a hardly-remorseful Turei is now asking for our vote. And her platform now is tainted by the message that it is okay to be a fraud. That dishonesty is okay. The ends justify the means. That the taxpayer is there to be ripped off if when it suits. That the law means nothing. Take what you think you need.

My response would be different if Turei was unequivocal in saying what she did was wrong, but she was desperate. But she is the opposite. She thinks she did nothing wrong. She thinks taxpayers wronged her by not giving her enough money to be a mother, study law and stand for Parliament at the same time.

Mike Hosking also writes:

Having confessed to lying and cheating a government department, she’s now decided to play co-conspirator to those who have come forward and told her they’re ripping off the system just like she did.

It would be easy to ignore this sort of behaviour if it wasn’t for the fact this woman wants to run the country. She’s not some attention seeking activist, she’s potentially a senior cabinet minister.

You can say all you want about politics and its ability to sink to various lows. But in general, those who participate in the practice have a broad code of conduct – and deception, dishonesty, fraud and general illegality aren’t part of it.

Being angry or frustrated about a system or finding things hard under a series of rules or regulations have never been, and please let them never become, acceptable reasons to become a crook.

This is now the brand of the Greens thanks To Metiria – fraud, dishonest, crook.

Rosemary McLeod chimes in:

We now know that Turei, as a 22-year-old solo mother, received the DPB and a grant to study for a law degree – which sounds pretty generous to me – while not admitting she lived with people who were sharing the rent, which means she conceivably got an accommodation allowance on top of her basic benefit.

She admits she was helped by her own family as well as her child’s father’s family, but says she couldn’t get by on that. So Turei took money from working people, through their taxes, who were probably no better off than she was. I can’t detect heroism in that.

No feminist solidarity from Rosemary!

Barry Soper also writes:

The twitterati has become apoplectic, fuming at the audacity of anyone posing a provocative question to the patron saint of the poor Metiria Turei.

Why would be want to know whether the father of the child Turei gave birth to in any way contributed to her upbringing?

It’s pertinent because if you’ve admitted to ripping off the taxpayer funded welfare system, as the Green co-leader has, then sources of income at a time she was claiming the benefit should be known.

The question though got short shrift from the MP who refused to speak about personal relationships, adding that she doesn’t believe women should be interrogated about those relationships.

It was a curious response, given that anyone claiming any benefit should declare their financial status before it’s paid to them.

Yep the Greens think that taxpayers, not fathers, should pay for children.

In fact she took the argument further, telling journalists they were being unfair, asking the kind of interrogative questions that beneficiaries are subjected to all the time.

The same sort of interrogation isn’t applied to people getting working for families, she contends, nor is it applied to pensioners.

Well the latter’s universal, your are paid it regardless of your financial standing and the former is always paid depending on the financial status of the recipient and the number of kids in the household.

Almost all state assistance is based on family or household income, not personal income. If you earn $30,000 a year and your partner earns $200,000 a year then you don’t get WFF. And if you do claim WFF on the basis of your $30,000 without declaring you live with your partner on $200,000 a year you are also a fraudster.

It’s a pity Turei wasn’t interrogated a little more closely when she was defrauding the system.

That interrogation will finally come next week when she meets a fraud investigator from the Social Development Ministry, more than 20 years too late.

When she admitted to fraud she must have known the blowtorch was about to be applied, given that she spent the best part of six years on the old domestic purposes benefit.

If MSD do a thorough job, they will not just be looking at her lies over how much rent she was paying. Other factors they should examine are:

  • Was she ever living with the father of the child during her six years on the DPB, in which case she may have been ineligible to be on the DPB at all
  • Did she have care of her child for the entire time she was on the DPB, or did the child spend some of that time in the care of grandparents
  • Was she living with another partner while still claiming the DPB and claiming to be single

The worst case scenario for Turei isn’t that she has to pay the money back, but if MSD decide her fraud wasn’t a one off decision of desperation but part of a pattern of deliberate offending. For if they decide to prosecute, then depending on what charges are laid a conviction would remove her from Parliament.

 

Why stop people who want to serve?

The Herald reports:

US President Donald Trump has banned transgender people from serving in the military “in any capacity”.

Trump shot off three tweets Wednesday morning, US time, to make the surprise announcement.

“After consultation with my generals and military experts, please be advised that the United States Government will not accept or allow transgender individuals to serve in any capacity in the US military,” he tweeted.

I’d be grateful to any citizen who volunteers to risk their life serving the country and wouldn’t get a shit about whether their gender identity is the same as their birth gender.