RIP Sir Bruce Slane

Stuff reports:

Sir Bruce Slane’s children are mourning his death, just nine days after their mother Lady Penelope Slane also died.

Sir Bruce, who was New Zealand’s first Privacy Commissioner from 1992 to 2003, died around lunchtime on Saturday.

Lady Penelope’s funeral is on Monday, so the family will wait for at least another week before farewelling Sir Bruce.

Their son Peter said it was a tragedy to lose both parents within such a short space of time, and his father had been hit hard by his mother’s death. …

Sir Bruce was chairman of the Broadcasting Tribunal for the entirety of the organisation’s life.

In 1989 he was presented with a special award at the radio industry awards, “in recognition of an outstanding contribution to radio in New Zealand”.

He was also active in the business world, holding directorships on various company boards.

In 1985 he received a CBE, and in 2003 was appointed a distinguished companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit. In 2009, he was knighted for services to personal and human rights.

Current Privacy Commissioner John Edwards remembered Sir Bruce as an upstanding legal professional with a strong sense of social justice.

“Bruce was a humanist and a great lawyer but he was modest and self-effacing,” he said.

Sir Bruce was 85 when he died. He leaves behind an excellent legacy.

 

Making excuses

Stuff reports:

Celebrity chef Jamie Oliver is shutting six of his 42 Jamie’s Italian restaurants in Britain amid tough trading conditions and a lower pound following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

The Jamie Oliver Restaurant Group said Friday that five restaurants in England and one in Scotland would close in the first quarter of 2017.

Chief executive Simon Blagden said “this is a tough market and, post-Brexit, the pressures and unknowns have made it even harder”.

The company has been stung by the slide in the pound, which has increased the cost of buying ingredients from Italy.

100 Euros costed around 80 Sterling before Brexit vote and is now around 85 Sterling. So around a 6% increase in food costs.

I would be very surprised if this is the real reason for the restaurants closing. The major costs of restaurants tends to be staff and overheads – not food costs. I suspect the real reason is not enough people were eating at them.

Despite the pressure on prices triggered by the pound’s fall, Britain’s economy has outperformed many economists’ expectations since the June vote.

The Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, conceded Thursday that forecasters got it wrong when they predicted a sharp economic downturn in the event of a vote to leave.

Before the referendum, many forecasters said a vote to leave the EU could cause the pound to fall by as much as 20 percent and push the economy back into recession.

The pound did plummet, but unemployment remains low and other economic indicators such as service-sector growth remain strong.

The pound has actually increased in value since October.

Trump now officially President-Elect

AP report:

Congress certified Donald Trump’s presidential victory Friday over the objections of a handful of House Democrats, with Vice President Joe Biden pronouncing, “It is over.”

This is the final stage following the popular vote and the Electoral College voting. Now it is 100% final, and Trump will get sworn in on the 20th of January as the 45th President of the United States.

So it is all over. Have all the celebrities left yet?

House Democrats objected to the votes from at least 10 states, raising issues of voter suppression as well as American intelligence showing that Russia tried to sway the election in favor of Trump. In each case, their objections were denied because they didn’t have the support of any senators.

The House Democrats that did this are playing with fire. Objections to votes should not just be because they don’t like the winner. They risk setting a precedent that could burn them badly in the future if say a Democrat wins the Electoral College but Republicans control Congress.

It’s like the Democrats in the Senate who did away with the rules protecting the minority when it comes to confirming appointments. Now they are in the minority and have lost the ability to block nominations.

Trump finished with 304 electoral votes and Democrat Hillary Clinton got 227. There were seven protest votes for other candidates. It takes 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.

There are 535 members of Congress yet 538 electoral college votes. Who knows what makes up the difference?

Ambassador Gilbert departs

Stuff reports:

It was a long road to New Zealand for US Ambassador Mark Gilbert and wife Nancy. There was a two year wait for the former professional baseball player to be confirmed in the post thanks to a Senate filibuster.

But the road back to America is a quicker one. The shock US election, installing Donald Trump as President elect, ends Gilbert’s tenure here. He was a Barrack Obama appointee, a good personal friend as well as a key money man for the outgoing US President.

Gilbert flies back to the US early next year. Based on past experience, it could be a long wait for the next US Ambassador.

Had the pleasure of meeting Ambassador Gilbert several times. A charming and effective Ambassador who saw the end of the US Navy stand off during his time.

It will be interesting to see who Trump nominates to be Ambassador.

Socialist seeks Green nomintion

Stuff reports:

Third-term Nelson city councillor Kate Fulton is going Green.

Fulton has confirmed that she is seeking nomination as the Green Party candidate for the West Coast-Tasman electorate in this year’s general elections.

Fulton said with the Greens, she could see an opportunity to find a new voice to represent both environmental and socialist values. 

Socialist values have worked so well in Venezuela. It must be exciting to try and get to put them in place in New Zealand.

2016 Predictions Test – John Stringer

Ok so in late 2016 David Farrar and I posted 20 predictions for 2016 on our respective blogs: Here are mine(with updates) See what I scored:
 
“It’s hardly fair to stand on the sidelines arms folded and tut tut (to quote Teddy Roosevelt) David Farrar’s 20 Predictions and not plunge in to the fray myself”
So here’s my “20/20” for 2016
1 Helen Clark will apply but fail to become UN supremo which will go to an eastern European
    ~ Helen did apply and failed but the successful nominee was from Portugal not eastern Europe [2 out 3 call it 1pt: 1/20]
 
2 I will do better than DPF’s 2015 11/20   ~ [17/20: 1 pt: 2/20]
 
3 David Seymour will drop the ball in a political faux pas
    ~ not really’ he was just quiet [0 pt: 2/20]
 
4 Colin Craig will lose or settle or conceal at least four court case outcomes:
    i) Craig mediated his sexual harassment hearing and paid rachel MacGrgeor about $36;000
    ii) He then violated the confidentiality 12 times and had to pay her historic six-figure damages
    iii) He lost to Jordan Williams and had to pay historic damages ($1:27 mill plus costs approx 1:1 mill)
    iv) He had his copyright case against WOil and Williams struck out and had costs awarded against him

    v) He covered up i) and ii) assiduously but suppression and non-publication orders were lifted by the Judge in the Williams trial    [4/4: 1 pt: 3/20]

 

5 The Conservative party will not rise above 2%   ~ Never did [1 pt: 4/20]
 
6 An ex-NZ prime minister will pass away
    ~ Well John Key resigned so perhaps 1/2 pt? [4.5/20]
 
7 The Flag referendum will fail and the current flag will be retained

    ~ tick [1 pt: 5.5/20]

 

8 There will be a nasty domestic child murder who will be Maori
    ~ Not in 2016 so that is good [0 pt: 5.5/20]
 
9 There will be more than three serious ISIS/Islamic attacks causing death in major European cities including Berlin and London
    ~ During this time period, there were 2453 Islamic attacks in 59 countries, in which 21150 people were killed and 26499 injured.
 
i)               2016 Berlin attack. A terrorist attack on 19 December 2016, during which a truck was driven into the Christmas market
ii)              2016 Knifing in London; and a bomb set on the Jubilee line train (foiled) \
 
      [1 pt: 6.5/20]
10 There will be a serious Islamic terrorist attack causing death in America at some large public event that Barack Obama will not admit is “Islamic” or “terrorism”
    ~ 2016.06.13 USA Orlando, FL An Islamic extremist massacres 49  people at a gay nightclub.  [1 pt: 7.5/20]
 
11 The Turks and Russians will skirmish but avoid all-out war
    ~ A Turkish police officer murdered the Russian ambassdor to Turkey  [1 pt: 8.5/20]
12 Israel will be blamed by the International community for Palestinian backwardness and the rest of the neglect of the Middle East by the grotesquely wealthy Arab nations while meanwhile accepting thousands of refugees in to tiny Israel housing educating and feeding them
    ~ December: NZ-co-sponsords UN resoution to stop Israeli settlement [1 pt: 9.5/20]
 
13 Fascism and extreme right political expressions will rear in Europe
    ~ Rise of Le Penn in FRnace and a rightwing Prez for Austria; anti-Islam Party for Freedom in Holland; Golden Dawn in Greece etc  [1 pt: 10.5/20]

14 Mosques will be attacked in America Europe and Australia
~ America: Florida mosque set on fire
~ Europe: Dresden mosque bombed
~ Aust: perth mosque fire bombed    [1 pt: 11.5/20]]
 
15 There will be a significant event in astronomy/space science
    ~ November: Moon comes closest to earth in our lifetime; China annunces Mars probes [1 pt: 12.5/20]
 
16 There will be a scare in viral pandemic health like Ebola or Bird Flu
    ~ August: Zika virus spreads to Florida [1 pt: 13.5/20]
 
17 The Nigerian kidnapped girls will still not be found
    ~ October: Got this wrong; 21 of them were actually released back to their families after Red Cross negotiaed with Boko Haram for their return  [0 pt: 13.5/20]
 
18 A major celebrity will drug overdose or commit suicide
    ~ April: Prince; George Michael (heart attack or drugs? He was 53; not sure yet)  
    [1 pt: 15/20]
 
19 Iran will open up and detente with the international community will improve
    ~ Obama gave them trillions in cash and Kerry secured the nuclear deal  [1 pt: 16/20]
20 There will be a 8+ scale earthquake on the Pacific Rim
    ~ Japan; NZ; South America; etc etc etc [1 pt: 17/20]

Things we do not need – a law about checking work e-mails

The Herald reports:

New legislation in France around set hours for responding to work emails is something New Zealand should consider, says the Council of Trade Unions.

Does the CTU also want France’s unemployment rate of 10.5%, which is partly due to their ridiculous employment laws. Or their anemic 1.0% economic growth.

On Sunday the new law came into force in France stating that companies with more than 50 employees have to negotiate and set out hours for when staff are, and are not required to check their emails or respond to work enquiries.

Incredibly stupid. Situations change. You may have quiet periods and then periods where a major project is on, and you are on the phone in the evenings.  Legislating that everything must have set hours agreed in advance for checking e-mails is pathetic.

A hate crime in the US

News.com.au reports:

FOUR teenagers will face hate crime, aggravated kidnapping, aggravated unlawful restraint and aggravated battery charges after allegedly capturing a man with special needs in Chicago, tying him up and torturing him in a sickening Facebook Live video.

All four suspects, named as Tanishia Covington, Brittany Covington, Tesfaye Cooper and Jordan Hill, are 18 years old.

The video, which aired on Tuesday for about 30 minutes, showed the victim bound and gagged in the corner of a room while the attackers kicked, slapped and taunted him. They also cut his hair with a knife until his scalp bled.

“F*** Donald Trump, f*** white people!” one of the suspects yelled at the victim. “I should knock your ass the f*** out right now. Stand up, boy!”

A girl behind the camera could be seen laughing at the scene in front of her and puffing on a cigar. “My sister says this is not funny, y’all,” she said.

“S**t, it’s funny to me. Tell Donald Trump it’s not funny,” one of the others replied.

One of the suspects told the victim to “Kiss the floor bitch”, adding “Nobody can help you anymore”.

Later, a man told him “I’ll torture the f*** out of you” and said “There’s going to be a murder here”.

What terrible terrible people. May they go to prison for a very long time.

Well done the fun police have killed it

Stuff reports:

It used to sell out in minutes, but by mid-December less than 4 per cent of tickets for the Wellington Sevens have been sold.

Tickets for the two-day event, which is being played at Westpac Stadium on January 28 and 29, went on sale in September.

In its heyday, the event sold out in a matter of minutes but it is understood that by mid-December only 1300 tickets had been sold for the tournament, despite the stadium having a capacity of 34,500.

I remember those days. The queues at Post Offices, the impatiently trying to order online before the system went down. That is when it was a great fun event.

A good charitable decision

The Herald reports:

Kiwis Against Seabed Mining has been denied charitable status and the accompanying tax benefits as it’s considered an advocacy group, rather than an educational group as it argued.

Kiwis Against Seabed Mining (KASM) describes itself as a community-based action group that raises awareness of mining proposals and educates the public.

A clearly correct decision. Far too many lobby groups masquerade as charities.

The Charities Registration Board, in a decision reached on December 15, said that while it accepts KASM has a charitable end of protecting the environment, the main way that it aims to achieve this is by advocating against seabed mining applications, putting a moratorium on seabed mining and promoting its views to the public.

To be a charity you actually need to go out there and help people and spend your money on helping people. Spending your money on political advocacy is not charitable.

What happens next with Israel

There has been surprisingly little sensible reporting on what Israel is likely to do, in response to the role of NZ in the UN Security Council vote.

As I have previously blogged, Israel did not threaten war. The normally very sensible Patrick Smellie has done a silly article speculating that Israel may launch cyber attacks on NZ. This is just nonsense. Some of his other suggestions may be closer to the mark such as private sector trade missions won’t be allowed.

Let’s start with what we do know. Israel has withdrawn their Ambassador for consultations and has banned the NZ Ambassador from visiting.

This is actually a very serious step for a country to take. In terms of diplomatic responses, this is only below cutting off diplomatic representation.

Most diplomatic issues between countries are dealt with by way of private or public note between foreign ministries. Sometimes this will be elevated to Ambassadors or Ministers or even Prime Ministers.

To give an analogy, NZ has (off memory) only recalled an Ambassador in situations like with Fiji. So Israel regards NZ’s actions akin to how NZ has regarded Fiji.

This means that it won’t just stop with the recalling the Ambassador for consultation. I expect there will be profound negative impact on relations, beyond just the diplomatic.

Israel will of course make decisions based on its national interest, as does New Zealand. If they go overboard with their response, it may backfire in terms of public support.

 

Which President called for union leaders to be hung as traitors?

Like most people, I worry over the inflammatory language from Donald Trump and think the US must have never had a President who says such provocative things. 
 
But the excellent Whistlestop podcast alerted me to a former US President who wrote a speech that labelled striking railway union leaders as “traitors”, listed them by name, called for them to be eliminated and said we should “hang a few traitors and make our own country safe for democracy”.
 
Makes Trump look restrained.
 
Anyone know which US President this was, without checking?
 
Clue 1: Post WWII
Clue 2: A Democrat

The great Bob Hawke

News.com.au reports:

FORMER Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke, now 87-years-old, has skolled a beer to a standing ovation at the SCG Test match.

Hawke necked the frothy while on the big screen during the third Test against Pakistan.

Legend.

Fanaticism runs both ways

The Herald reports:

Foreign Minister and East Coast Bays MP Murray McCully’s office has been vandalised after New Zealand co-sponsored a UN resolution against Israeli settlements.

A photograph posted to Reddit shows graffiti on the frontage of McCully’s electorate office in Browns Bay, calling him a “traitor” and “Jew hater”.

A reminder that fanaticism can run both ways.

Being against the current Israeli Government’s policy of unilateral building of settlements on occupied territory does not make you a Jew hater. In fact 40% of Israeli citizens are against the policy also.

Fails the sniff test

With the Sir Peter Leitch controversy, I guess no one knows for sure what was said, except those there. But the allegation is he said:

“I go ‘Yeah, I’m actually born here’. That’s when he said ‘Well this is a white man’s island and you should acknowledge that’,” she said.

To me this fails the sniff test. It is not just something that anyone would say – demanding a Maori women should acknowledge that Waiheke is a white man’s island.

Sure this might be what she genuinely thinks he said, but the wording seems preposterous. While Sir Peter’s version of events does not.

Such a pity that today people feel the way to do deal with a conversation that upset them is to rush to Facebook and demonise the other person.

Major cities have become less dense

This graph is from Croaking Cassandra. He comments:

These numbers shouldn’t really be a surprise.  Space is a normal good –  people typically want more of it, all else equal, when they can afford it –  and technological advances make longer distance commutes feasible.

No doubt there will be some issues with how the data are compiled/estimated –  quite where are the boundaries around the “built up area”, and how well is that known for, say, 1855.  But the general proposition shouldn’t be surprising: it is easy enough to think of the cramped tenement dwellings of New York in the late 19th century.

So what does this mean for today:

And the constant refrain locally is for “more density”, when there is little or no evidence that such densification is what residents would prefer for themselves.  Indeed, it would be surprising if the revealed preferences across time and across countries/cultures had suddenly reversed.

I have no particular problem if people wish to live in high-rise apartments, or in small townhouses with no garden.  And people will choose to do so if regulatory constraints limit their options –  eg if land simply becomes too expensive –  but it doesn’t look like a first-best unconstrained preferred choice for most people.  We don’t, for example, see such bunching in our own provincial cities –  where housing is less unaffordable than in, say, Auckland –  and of course by international standards even our own largest city, Auckland, is not much more than a large provincial city (just a bit smaller than, say, Nashville).

Freeing up the use of land around cities remains the key to making housing affordable again and providing the choices/options that people value.  Experience suggests more populous cities will cover more space.  That isn’t something officials and politicians should be trying to stop.

I agree. I’d do what Phil Twyford proposed and abolish the MUB for Auckland. Let people build out and up.

If 1,100 law professors are against him, he is certain to get confirmed

The Washington Post reports:

A group of more than 1,100 law school professors from across the country is sending a letter to Congress on Tuesday urging the Senate to reject the nomination of Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) for attorney general.

The letter, signed by professors from 170 law schools in 48 states, is also scheduled to run as a full-page newspaper ad aimed at members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which will be holding confirmation hearings for Sessions on Jan. 10-11.

“We are convinced that Jeff Sessions will not fairly enforce our nation’s laws and promote justice and equality in the United States,” states the letter, signed by prominent legal scholars including Laurence H. Tribe of Harvard Law School, Geoffrey R. Stone of the University of Chicago Law School, Pamela S. Karlan of Stanford Law School and Erwin Chemerinsky of the University of California, Irvine School of Law.

Megyn Kelly to NBC

USA Today reports:

Megyn Kelly is signing off on Fox News to join rival NBC News.

The popular cable network personality is joining the peacock network, where she will anchor a new, one-hour daytime program, Andrew Lack, chairman of the NBCUniversal News Group, said in a statement today.

As part of a broad, multi-year deal, Kelly will also anchor a new Sunday evening news magazine show and contribute to NBC’s breaking news, political and special events coverage.

Kelly was arguably the second biggest star on Fox. It will be interesting to see if her viewers follow her to NBC.

Kelly, who anchored The Kelly File since 2013, delivered top ratings to Fox while playing a prominent role in the 2016 presidential election. She repeatedly sparred with president-elect Donald Trump, punctuated by a contentious showdown at the first GOP debate, in which she confronted him about his insulting remarks about women.

Trump countered with slashing remarks in which he insinuated Kelly was antagonistic to him in the debate because she was menstruating. The two eventually met in Trump’s office to hash out their differences.

She also clashed with former Fox News chief Roger Ailes, who left the top-rated news organization he helped shape over accusations of sexual harassment. She said Ailes harassed her starting in 2005, according to her book, Settle for More.

Amazing Ailes got away with it for so long.

NZ best country again

The Herald reports:

New Zealand has been named the world’s best country by readers of Britain’s Daily Telegraph.

The winners of the annual Telegraph Travel Awards were voted on by more than 75,000 readers, with New Zealand emerging as the clear winner for the fourth consecutive year.

The Telegraph listed 26 reasons why New Zealand was best in the world, including landscapes that “make you want to applaud”, “magnificent Maori culture” and that “it really does look like Middle Earth”.

Some local doomsayers try to talk NZ down as we are not environmentally perfect (you know unlike every other country on Earth) but the reality is the vast vast majority of people from other countries are amazed by our lakes, rovers, forests and mountains.

Unsafe to release

Stuff reports:

The country’s only convicted plane hijacker has almost completed her prison sentence and is threatening to hijack another aircraft if she gets the chance.

Asha Abdille stabbed both pilots on an Air New Zealand flight from Blenheim to Christchurch in February 2008. One passenger was injured in the incident.

The Somali refugee took knives onto the 19-seater plane, which was forced to make an emergency landing.

Abdille was sentenced to nine years in prison, and her sentence expires on February 7.

She is currently held in a psychiatric unit in the Wellington region, but refused to attend her final Parole Board hearing in early December.

A written summary of the hearing, obtained by RNZ, said Abdille was still classified as high risk and has “said that she will attempt to hijack another plane and has threatened to set herself on fire”.

The decision noted no reintegration plan has been developed for the 42-year-old by the unidentified hospital she was held in. But it said “work is being undertaken by the hospital together with the [Corrections] Department about the best way of managing Ms Abdille in the future”.

The Parole Board went on to say hospital staff have “ongoing concerns about potential risky behaviour in the community on any release”. A 2014 report said Abdille had agreed to trial an antipsychotic medication, Clozapine.

It is understood Abdille, who is currently regarded as a special patient, will transfer into the mental health system on a compulsory treatment order (CTO) when her sentence ends next month.

That seems like the only safe outcome.