The Coalition for More Homes

36 organisations (including Kiwiblog) have put their name to an open letter to the Auckland Council urging them to adopt the Unitary Plan, which will allow Auckland to grow up and out.

The letter says:

On 20th of July, the Independent Hearings Panel issued their findings on the Unitary Plan. These recommendations include a range of strategies to allow for more housing across the City. The Unitary Plan is not the only action that is needed from Auckland Council and the Government to address the housing crisis – but it is an urgent first step.

The Unitary Planning process, including the Independent Hearing Panel review, has taken four years. The time for deliberating is over, the process has been followed, it’s time to get on with it. 

I don’t agree with everything in the Unitary Plan. I’d like to see the Metropolitan Urban Boundary abolished (as Phil Twyford has proposed) rather than just expanded. But I think it takes a large step in the right direction, and that the time is past for tinkering with it. The time is here for the Auckland Council to adopt it in its entirety.

Individuals can add their support to the open letter also. Please do so if you agree with it. Even if like me you don’t live in Auckland, what happens in Auckland affects the entire country. If more land is not made available for housing, then house price inflation will continue at unsustainable levels, which threatens the overall economy.

Signatories include:

  • NZ Initiative
  • Property Council of NZ
  • Generation Zero
  • Bays Community Housing Trust
  • The Morgan Foundation
  • The Salvation Army
  • Transport Blog

I doubt there are any other issues all these groups agree on. But they do all agree that the Council should pass the Unitary Plan as proposed.

Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike is an unusual name for a play, unless you are a fan of Anton Chekhov’s plays.

Chekov is regarded as Russia’s greatest playwright and Vanya is Uncle Vanya from the play of the same name. Sonia comes from Sonya in the same play and Masha from Three Sisters.

vanya_940x270-940x270

In this play they are siblings, named by their parents after the literary characters. Vanya and Sonia live together in middle age in Pennsylvania and Masha is their movie star sister who owns the house.

The play was written by Christopher Durang and premiered in 2012 hitting Broadway in 2013. It win the Tony Award that year for Best Play.

The NZ production and premiere is directed by Susan Wilson, who has previously directed several Chekov plays.

When you enter Circa One, the set dominates the theatre – a lovely middle class house, and garden. The play starts with a fight between Vanya and Sonia who are both miserable in their existence. You learn Sonia is adopted, Vanya is gay, and they have a weird co-dependency.

Gavin Rutherford as Vanya and Rachel Henry as Sonia are excellent. They spark off each other and hurt each other as only family can do. Their cleaner Cassandra (Erina Daniels) provides good comic relief but also important plot elements.

The real tension occurs when sister Masha (Emma Kinane) turns up. Not only does she make her siblings feel worse, she is looking to sell the house. And in tow is her toyboy Spike (Simon Leary). Finally add to the mix the perky Nina (Harriett Prebble) from next door who worships Masha, but Masha fears Spike likes her. This leads to a costume party with much angst over the costumes.

All six actors perform very well, bringing their characters to life.

However I did find myself at a disadvantage not having seen most of Chekov’s plays and understanding the parodies at work. It will still an enjoyable performance, and a good plot, but the ending was somewhat predictable.

The first half was a bit tough going as the characters were all quite unsympathetic, but the second half I enjoyed it much more as they became more rounded.

Overall was enjoyable and makes me want to see some Chekov plays, but I did think it would have been better to have seen them before seeing this.

Latest US poll

The latest ABC poll is interesting. Clinton has improved her favourability. The net ratings are:

  • Clinton B +18%
  • Kaine +17%
  • Pence +12%
  • Clinton H -2%
  • Trump M -6%
  • Trump D -29%

In terms of intended vote, the breakdowns are:

  • All: Clinton +8%
  • Men: Trump +10%
  • Women: Clinton +23%
  • Whites: Trump +12%
  • Blacks: Clinton +90%
  • Hispanics: Clinton +43%
  • Democrats: Clinton +87%
  • Independents: Trump +4%
  • Republicans: Trump +72%
  • Under 30s: Clinton +26%
  • 30 – 39: Trump +2%
  • 40 – 49: Tied
  • 50 – 64: Clinton +13%
  • 65+: Clinton +6%
  • Moderates: Clinton +24%
  • Under $50k: Clinton +22%
  • $50k to $100k: Clinton +4%
  • Over $100k: Trump +3%
  • White men: Trump +27%
  • White women: Clinton +1%
  • White college: Clinton +6%
  • White no college: Trump +25%

 

Was Goddard sacked?

The Herald reports:

Dame Lowell Goddard, the New Zealand judge who resigned on Thursday as chair of the £100 million (N$183.5m) Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA), did not leave her post voluntarily but was effectively fired, The Mail on Sunday has learned.

Dame Lowell, appointed by then-Home Secretary Theresa May just over a year ago, had already lost the confidence of senior staff and members of the inquiry panel, according to two well-placed legal sources.

After she gave a stumbling performance at a preliminary hearing on the case of former Labour politician Greville Janner, when she appeared not to understand her own legal powers, this was picked up by Mrs May’s successor as Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, and her advisers.

The final straw was the disclosure – prompted in part by questions from this newspaper – that in her first year in the job, she spent 30 days on leave and 44 days supposedly ‘working’ in Australia, although in all that time she held only two meetings with members of a child abuse inquiry underway there.

A Home Office spokeswoman last night insisted it was ‘her decision’ to offer her resignation. But asked whether this had been suggested to Dame Lowell by officials because her position was becoming untenable, she refused to comment.

However Stuff reports:

Dame Lowell Goddard was not asked to resign from the British Inquiry into child sex abuse by the Home Office, says a spokesperson for the UK government agency.

This may be a play on words. Something can be a suggestion not a request.

Leggett pledges two terms and rotating committee chairs

The Herald reports:

A mayoral candidate has described the culture at Wellington City Council toxic.

Not just him, but everyone. A senior staffer who just resigned labelled it that. Hard to deny it isn’t.

Leggett says if elected, he’ll introduce an annual rotation of council committee chair people.

“The kingdoms that have been established in different areas, I want to break that. I think we should have revolving chair roles, committees that actually do work, and focus on particular areas.”

Break up the fiefdoms. I like it.

Mr Leggett said if he wins the mayoralty in October, he’ll lead by example and leave after two terms to promote a continual rejuvenation of the council.

“This idea that you hang around for a lifetime like many on Wellington City Council, and you make a job out of it, is not something that I find attractive.”

“My view is that you get in, you make change, and then you move on.”

Absolutely. For those interested this is when the various candidates for Mayor were first elected to Council:

  • Not on WCC – Nick Leggett, Keith Johnson
  • 2013 – Nicola Young
  • 2010 – Justin Lester
  • 2007 – Jo Coughlan
  • 1994 – Celia Wade-Brown
  • 1992 – Andy Foster
  • 1977 – Helen Ritchie

Otago students vote against nanny state

The ODT reports:

Dressing up in blackface or as a Nazi will not be out of bounds at next year’s Hyde St keg party after University of Otago students voted against costumes being regulated.

In a binding referendum, students overwhelmingly voted against the Otago University Students’ Association (OUSA) regulating what costumes could be worn to the party,  by a majority of 61.67% versus 33.29% who voted for the regulations, after a set of guidelines introduced this year prompted a backlash.

The list of costumes to avoid released by OUSA this year included “blackface darkening”, racial or cultural stereotypes, mocking culturally sensitive events — such as by dressing as a Nazi — mocking disabled people, mocking LGBT people and glorifying sexual violence, for instance by dressing as Chris Brown or Bill Cosby.

Well done Otago students for voting against this nonsense.

If students wish to wear an offensive costume, then that is up to them. They may have to put up consequences, but again that is their decision.

Could you imagine how long the list of banned costumes would get over time. Eventually there would be a shorter list of approved costumes.

Goff pledges 2.5% rates cap

The Herald reports:

Labour MP Phil Goff vows to cut fat, introduce road charges and cap rates rises at 2.5 per cent if he wins the Auckland mayoralty in nine weeks.

His fiscal policy, out today, contains a pledge to restore public confidence in the management of ratepayer money.

The born and raised Aucklander, 63, is a leading contender to replace Len Brown, who is stepping down after a sex scandal and overseeing soaring rates and debt.

“Unfortunately trust and confidence in the council has fallen to a very low level and the expected savings from amalgamation have not been made over the past six years,” Goff said.

His fix involves capping rates at 2.5 per cent or less, cutting council spending by between 3 and 6 per cent and introducing road charges.

Good to see Goff finally have a specific policy. 2.5% is higher than others (Auckland Ratepayers Association is asking candidates to pledge no greater than 2%), but now all the major candidates have made a pledge on what is the maximum rates rise they will vote for.

Of course Len Brown did the same, and broke his word.

Also good top see a pledge to cut spending by 3% to 6%. If elected, people will want to see this occur.

1st medal

Stuff reports:

Kiwi shooter Natalie Rooney has won New Zealand’s first medal medal at the Rio Olympics after claiming silver in the women’s trap event.

The Timaru 28-year-old beat American Corey Cogdell in a shoot-off to reach the gold medal match against Australia’s Catherine Skinner.

Despite getting off to a flying start in the final, she couldn’t maintain the momentum, missing four of her 15 attempts as the Australian won the final – and the gold medal – 12-11.

So close, but still great effort to get the silver medal.

While she may have missed out on gold, it is New Zealand’s greatest Olympic shooting result, with the only previous medal a bronze won by 50m prone rifle shooter Ian Ballinger at the 1968 Mexico City Games. …

Rooney trains in Europe up to three months at a time and has not received any official funding.

“Obviously my Dad has paid a fair bit of money for my shooting.

“This is a big thanks to him.”

A true amateur.

Greens want to ban health insurance and private healthcare!

Stuff reports:

Green Party health spokesman Kevin Hague said he would get rid of private healthcare altogether. 

“I think that distorts the health sector completely and produces a two-tier system.”

This is a remarkable statement and should ring warning bells about the Greens ever being in Government. Hague is saying the Government should abolish private healthcare. This can only be done by legislation, and would mean:

  • Making private health insurance illegal
  • Closing down every private hospital in New Zealand
  • Nationalising every medical centre in NZ and turning GPs into DHB employees

I look forward to the Greens campaigning on this.

A flaw in the plan

The Herald reports:

Your days of illegally downloading Game of Thrones might soon be coming to an end, but not in the way you might think.

At the moment copyright owners hamper Google with take-down requests to have infringing content removed from piracy sites, while also putting pressure on ISPs to give up the personal details of pirates.

However, these efforts are largely reactive and have little to no effect on the piracy landscape.

In order to combat the issue proactively, a new report published by Black Market Watch and the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime has detailed an approach just so wild it might actually work.

Rather than trying to combat the issue online, the report suggests there should be mandatory blocking of pirated content on the operating system level.

“Other players that possess the potential ability to limit piracy are the companies that own the major operating systems which control computers and mobile devices such as Apple, Google and Microsoft,” the report reads.

“The producers of operating systems should be encouraged, or regulated, for example, to block downloads of copyright infringing material.”

Two problems with this idea.

  1. There is no easy way to identify pirated material. How do you distinguish between a home video and a pirated movie?
  2. If an operating system did block pirated material, then I’d say tens of millions of customers would stop using that operating system and use another.

Vam Beynen on opinions

Martin Van Beynen writes:

It’s a dangerous world in which to speak your mind.

To quote from June’s Economist: “From the mosques of Cairo to the classrooms of Yale, all sorts of people and groups are claiming a right not to be offended … A right not to be offended implies a power to police other people’s speech.”

I have often commented on our overly sensitive and easily affronted society especially, it seems, if the offending speaker is an older white male, yes, like me. But not exclusively. Ask Germaine Greer or Chrissie Hynde.

I always thought it was best to challenge speech you don’t agree with,  rather than get people sacked for saying things you disagree with.

Last week it was University of Canterbury sociology professor Greg Newbold’s turn.

The University’s Feminists Society (FemSoc) complained about a lecture he gave to promote his latest book.

His lecture about feminist campaigns in the 1970s and 1980s and their impact on rape law apparently left some attendees “visibly disturbed” and “likely in shock at the inappropriateness”, according to the complaint.

The complaint accused Newbold of objectifying women and contributing to rape culture by saying New Zealand’s penalties for rape were too drastic and failed to address the impact on victims.

Newbold’s shocking comments were answers to some “thorny” questions from the floor during question time, it turned out.

“The matter of rape is always controversial, but in declaring that the lecture content should have been vetted, the dissenters seem to think university staff should not be able to voice opinions that they personally disagree with,” Newbold later wrote.

“They appear unaware that the university is an institution where freedom of expression and open debate is part of its core business.”

Sadly freedom of speech is an endangered beast on campuses.

It would all be very droll – a very first world issue – but for some potentially harmful ramifications.   

The first is that debate will obviously become more limited and one-sided. The sometimes ugly and painful exchanges that lead to change will be stifled.

With jobs, careers and reputations at stake, people who want to speak up will stay silent, keeping their heads below the parapet. They will self censor.

On the surface it will appear the zealots have succeeded in changing attitudes when all they have achieved is driving those views they find offensive underground.

That won’t benefit the zealots or those holding those discomforting views. Opinions and positions will become more entrenched as they breed like viruses in their only little petri dishes. Censorship favours the status quo, it is said. Ask China.

Then all of a sudden someone like Donald Trump, who doesn’t give a fig for civilised rules of discourse, comes along and finds a willing audience in those who feel they have somehow lost a voice.

A large part of the support for Trump is a backlash against those who try to police speech.

What happens in universities and in boardrooms is important because it influences those on the outside.

The principle of free speech can sometimes be used to defend the indefensible but it certainly shouldn’t be curtailed to avoid hurting the feelings of over-sensitive people whose views are often as unreasonable and entrenched as those of the very people they despise. 

Indeed.

A non-partisan top CIA official on why they are against Trump

Michael Morell writes in the NYT:

During a 33-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, I served presidents of both parties — three Republicans and three Democrats. I was at President George W. Bush’s side when we were attacked on Sept. 11; as deputy director of the agency, I was with President Obama when we killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.

 I am neither a registered Democrat nor a registered Republican. In my 40 years of voting, I have pulled the lever for candidates of both parties. As a government official, I have always been silent about my preference for president.
No longer. On Nov. 8, I will vote for Hillary Clinton. Between now and then, I will do everything I can to ensure that she is elected as our 45th president.

So why would such a long serving neutral official break his stance, and take sides.

Mr. Trump has no experience on national security. Even more important, the character traits he has exhibited during the primary season suggest he would be a poor, even dangerous, commander in chief.

These traits include his obvious need for self-aggrandizement, his overreaction to perceived slights, his tendency to make decisions based on intuition, his refusal to change his views based on new information, his routine carelessness with the facts, his unwillingness to listen to others and his lack of respect for the rule of law.

 The dangers that flow from Mr. Trump’s character are not just risks that would emerge if he became president. It is already damaging our national security.
 
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was a career intelligence officer, trained to identify vulnerabilities in an individual and to exploit them. That is exactly what he did early in the primaries. Mr. Putin played upon Mr. Trump’s vulnerabilities by complimenting him. He responded just as Mr. Putin had calculated.
 
Mr. Putin is a great leader, Mr. Trump says, ignoring that he has killed and jailed journalists and political opponents, has invaded two of his neighbors and is driving his economy to ruin. Mr. Trump has also taken policy positions consistent with Russian, not American, interests — endorsing Russian espionage against the United States, supporting Russia’s annexation of Crimea and giving a green light to a possible Russian invasion of the Baltic States.

In the intelligence business, we would say that Mr. Putin had recruited Mr. Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation.

Basically Putin has played Trump.

Mr. Trump has also undermined security with his call for barring Muslims from entering the country. This position, which so clearly contradicts the foundational values of our nation, plays into the hands of the jihadist narrative that our fight against terrorism is a war between religions.

In fact, many Muslim Americans play critical roles in protecting our country, including the man, whom I cannot identify, who ran the C.I.A.’s Counterterrorism Center for nearly a decade and who I believe is most responsible for keeping America safe since the Sept. 11 attacks.

Again this is from a 33 year veteran of the CIA.

Paranoia up north

The Northern Advocate reports:

The head of a Grey Power chapter promoting medicinal cannabis believes her group is being “sabotaged”, after an Air Force plane flew “very low” over her home.

Otamatea Grey Power put its weight behind the legalise cannabis movement in April this year, saying they want to have the choice of dying pain-free. The group then launched a petition asking the Government to legalise the growing of cannabis for personal medicinal use.

Now, president Beverley Aldridge says her group was being “sabotaged and maybe intimidated”, after an Air Force Hercules flew over her Maungaturoto home on July 18.

“All of a sudden it’s happening. I don’t believe in coincidences and I’m not paranoid,” Ms Aldridge said.

Umm, yes you are.

I’m sure that the Government orders the Air Force to buzz homes of Grey Power presidents because they launched a petition.

Ms Aldridge said she had no proof to back up her suspicions, “but one does wonder”.

Ms Aldridge said she was not a cannabis user herself but had researched the plant and come to the conclusion it had a myriad of benefits.

One of those benefits is triggering paranoia!

Celia’s legacy

As Celia is retiring after two terms as Mayor, it is timely to look at her legacy. In 2013 I blogged:

I basically assess local body candidates on what I call the 3 Ps – policies, personality and political management.

Now when it comes to policies, of course there are not that many areas I agree with Wade-Brown. However the Mayor is just one vote of 15. So policies alone is not a sufficient reason to not vote for someone.

Personality isn’t a problem for me with Celia. She pleasant and engaging, and generally gets on well with people. She is no Bob Parker who managed to alienate huge swathes of people.

It is the third area, political management, where the Mayor hasn’t been successful. The Council under her leadership has been almost embarrassing at times as it flip-flops backwards and forwards on issues such as the Basin Reserve.

I also said:

If she does get re-elected, then of course her policies will not change but I do hope she improves her political management.

Now to be fair to her, I believe she was a better political manager in her second term compared to her first, and a few Councillors have said this also. She did manage to get some runs on the board, and get some good projects initiated such as the Peter Jackson film museum. There were of course some things not done at all well, especially the Island Bay cycleway.

In her retirement statement she covers some of her achievements. I’ll add my 2c to them:

“Our economy is in good shape. We established the Wellington Regional Economic Development agency to drive growth in the regional economy

Too early to call WREDA a success. I hear a lot of grumbling about secrecy there.

and established new airline routes to Singapore and Canberra and via Fiji to the United States.

Paying airlines to fly to Wellington isn’t an achievement in my view, just corporate welfare.

“We’ve bought the land for the new Movie Museum and Conference Centre and the last details are being ironed out between VUW, NZSO and us on the Town Hall and Civic Precinct.

Yep good progress there and may be the best part of her legacy.

“I led funding for the resource consent for the extension of the airport runway so Wellington businesses will have easier access to international markets and so we can accelerate tourism and overseas students into the city and region. The benefits to Central New Zealand will far outweigh the costs.

Yet to be convinced here. In favour of the resource consent, but I think the bulk of the runway extension should be funded by the airport shareholders – not taxpayers.

“As a tech geek I was excited to deliver free WiFi in the CBD, the Collider Tech Hub and helped bid for the ICT Graduate School now being established.

Celia has been a good supporter of the technical community. She was in fact an original Councillor of InternetNZ.

“As a progressive politician, I have led local government in New Zealand with the staged implementation of a living wage for all Council staff, CCO employees, security and cleaning contractors.

Councillors voting to force ratepayers to pay wages at the level a priest in Lower Hutt decides is not an achievement, especially when at least two Councillors who voted in favour refuse to do so in their own businesses.

“In light of the squeeze on housing in the city for the foreseeable future, I successfully negotiated with the Government special housing accords to help Wellingtonians access an adequate supply of affordable housing in the city as well as ensuring the existing social housing improvements were extremely well done. New modular style building will catalyse cheaper builds in the city while maintaining quality.

Too early to judge, but was good to get the SHAs agreed.

“As a proud cyclist it was very pleasing to secure over $37 million in council and government funding for the next four years to build a beautiful network that will transform the way we get around the city and reduce our carbon emissions. We’ve moved the Great Harbour Way, which I have advocated for for many years, from a community dream to being solidly funded from Petone to Ngauranga and Oriental Bay to Miramar. Council and volunteers combine to make amazing mountain bike tracks. Bikes to Schools has brought joy to many primary school children.

Sadly the way the Island Bay cycleway was done has set things back. Good cycleways should make the road safer for cyclists and motorists, not more dangerous.

“Light rail is still on the medium-term agenda

No it isn’t. Even Celia abandoned support of it when the benefit to cost ratio was calculated at 0.05, which means every $1 million of spending would produce just $50,000 of benefits.

and the new collaborative arrangement “Let’s Get Welly Moving” between Regional Council, NZTA and Wellington City is a far better place to start from than fighting the failed flyover.

There is no start or starting place. Thanks to the opposition to the flyover, there are zero affordable solutions in play to reduce congestion at the Basin.

“When I hang up the Mayoral robe and chains for the last time, I will begin a third career with a number of different portfolios.

“I have been accepted into a local English language teaching course that starts in late September and I am really looking forward to it, especially to supporting refugees settle in. Several personal and business projects will follow in 2017, including walking Te Araroa from Cape Reinga to Bluff. I’ve been asked to be on several Boards including the International Walk21 Foundation.

Walking Te Araroa is a great challenge. Would love to do that one day.

“My Mayoralty can be defined by the breadth of my interests and the varied projects we’ve completed that impact the lives and experiences of all Wellingtonians. I’ve been inclusive of all elected members. I am heartened that I leave the Mayoralty with the city in good shape.

The city is in good shape, but I’m not sure the Council is the same.

“Vogue magazine was right when they said in 2015 that Wellington is the “coolest little city in the world.”

Yes it is, but I am biased.

How an AP reporter took down flossing

Kristen Hare at Poynter writes:

When an orthodontist asked the reporter if he wanted a good story idea, the reporter, of course, said “yes.”

Jeff Donn, a national writer with The Associated Press and 2012 Pulitzer finalist, was doubtful, at first, about that tip from his son’s orthodontist: There’s no solid evidence that flossing actually works.

Surely not correct as we have all been told how important it is.

Tell us about the process behind this story. It started with a FOIA, right?

My work started with a careful look at the research. Much of it was identified in five medical literature reviews undertaken over the past decade. I also began to wonder how floss had gained such wide acceptance, who had promoted it, and why.

I found that the federal government had been promoting floss for decades, chiefly in its Dietary Guidelines for Americans. By law, the guidelines must be based on science, so I asked staffers at the responsible agencies — the departments of Health and Human Services and Agriculture — for the documentation behind the floss recommendation. Weeks of requests failed to turn up anything. So I filed a formal FOIA request.

Six months passed. On Jan. 7, the government put out a new edition of the guidelines, as scheduled. The flossing recommendation had quietly been dropped. The next day, HHS wrote a letter to me in reply to my FOIA request. It said that no relevant records could be located and then added that floss had never been researched by the committees that review science for the guidelines.

It said that flossing had simply been taken as a “general public health recommendation.” In the end, this appeared to be a rare instance where simply filing a FOIA changed government policy.

So all he did was ask for the scientific evidence behind the advice, and it turned out there wasn’t really any, so they dropped the advice.

Do you floss?

Yes, I still do — to remove annoying bits of foods stuck in my teeth. My wife yells at me when I use my finger or a fork. But I think the best science indicates that I’m not doing anything beneficial for my health.

I use interdental brushes to remove the stuck food. Much easier than flossing I find!

Wellington’s harbourside cycleway

Stuff reports:

Wellington’s great harbour cycleway has moved a step closer to reality.

Plans have been revealed for a new $7 million shared cycling and pedestrian path around the capital’s bays between Waitangi Park and the Miramar cutting.

It will follow the waterfront along Oriental Parade, Evans Bay Parade and Cobham Drive.

The 3.9-metre-wide path will provide an almost seamless – and more scenic – cycle link between the central city and eastern suburbs that avoids the rountinely congested Basin Reserve roundabout and the compact streets of Newtown.

It’s a great area to cycle, walk and run – except on very windy days!

Labour support no juries for some trials

The Herald reports:

Rape trials could be heard before a judge alone – not a jury – under radical proposals before the Government.

Justice Minister Amy Adams is weighing a Law Commission report that could transform the legal process for both complainant and accused.

The primary recommendation – likely to be implemented with broad support – is to try out a specialist sexual violence court, with expert judges and lawyers.

But other ideas are much more controversial, including scrapping juries in favour of another model. …

Labour’s spokeswoman on sexual and family violence, Poto Williams, said in many cases she believed a judge alone or other entity would be better than a jury. However, jury trials would still be needed in some situations, and how that was decided would be critical.

In NZ you have the right to opt for a jury trial if the offence has a maximum punishment of two years or more. The maximum penalty for sexual violation is 20 years. I think it would be terrible to take away the right to a jury trial from a defendant facing up to 20 years in jail.

Still it is not as bad as Andrew Little’s policy proposal that someone accused of rape should have to prove beyond reasonable doubt there was consent.  His idea was you are deemed guilty unless you can prove you are innocent.

All over for Clark candidacy?

The 2nd round of voting for the UN Secretary General has seen Clark drop from 6th to 7th but more importantly she now has more discourages than encourages. I suspect this means it is all over.

The results are:

  1. Guterres 11-2-2 (encourage, neutral, discourage)
  2. Jeremic 8-3-4
  3. Malcoora 8-1-6
  4. Turk 7-3-5
  5. Bokova 7-1-7
  6. Kerim 6-2-7
  7. Clark 6-1-8
  8. Figueres 5-2-8
  9. Gherman 3-2-10
  10. Luksic 2-4-9
  11. Lajcak 2-7-6

The more important aspect is how the P5 voted. Clark may hang on until the straw polls that reveal P5 votes but really hard to see how you get past a majority of the Security Council voting discourage.

If Guteres was from Eastern Europe, I’d say he win easily. But he isn’t.  Turk from Slovenia was doing best of the Eastern Europeans but Russia may veto. Bokova likely to be vetoed also. Jeremic may come through the middle.

Negative gearing

The Herald reports:

Labour has confirmed it will introduce a policy to remove tax breaks on investment properties but aims to target speculators rather than small-time landlords.

Labour’s housing spokesman Phil Twyford has released Inland Revenue figures which showed property investors claimed $650 million in tax write-offs on residential rental properties in the year to March 2015.

His party now plans to crack down on negative gearing, which allows landlords to claim tax deductions on their rental properties.

Labour will consult on its policy to remove negative gearing over the next few months and was aiming for a design to capture speculators rather than longer term, small investors such as those using a rental as a retirement investment.

That included considering options such a cap on the number of houses negative gearing could apply to and grandfathering the policy so it did not apply to current landlords.

There may be significant unforeseen consequences here. Such a policy could lead to a significant increase in rents, as landlords will be less happy to wear a loss in the initial years as a mortgage is high.

 

Public Polls July 2016

pollsjul16

Just published Curia’s monthly polling newsletter. The executive summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 99, July 2016

There was just one political voting poll in July 2016 – a Roy Morgan.  This means the average reflects that one poll only.

The average of the public polls has National 27% ahead of Labour in July, up 10% from June. The current seat projection is centre-right 67 seats, centre-left 45 which would see National able to govern alone.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States Trump got a boost from the RNC Convention but his performance since the DNC convention has seen Clinton extend her lead in both the popular vote and the Electoral College.

In the UK Theresa May is off to a strong start with 36% approval and only 15% disapproval. Her +31% net approval contrasts with Jeremy Corbyn who has a -24% rating.

In Australia Only one company has polled since the election. They show no honeymoon for the Coalition, and in fact a pick-up of support for Labor.

In Canada the dominance of the Liberals continues without challenge.

We also carry details of the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

A rare burglary

Stuff reports:

Two Lincoln University students have admitted using a row boat to carry out the first burglary in 17 years on Great Barrier Island in the Hauraki Gulf.

The pair not only took property from the holiday home but caused $14,518 damage. …

After they apologised and paid for the losses, the burglary victim was not opposed to the pair being granted a discharge without conviction. The victim said the whole Great Barrier community had been affected, and, according to a local police constable, it was the first burglary on the island for 17 years.

Ruane and Steck’s counsel, Cindy Lee, argued that the pair should be granted the discharge because of the likely consequences on their career prospects of having a burglary conviction on their records. It might affect future travel plans.

Both were studying for degrees and were seen as a low risk of reoffending, Lee said. 

Discharges can be granted when the consequences of a conviction are out of all proportion to the gravity of the offence.

Judge Strettell said it was a serious offence — a burglary involving so much property taken and damaged. He was not satisfied the consequences were out of proportion. Although the pair took steps to right the wrongs, some offences were so serious that “they must have consequences for everyone”. 

I’m a fairly regular visit to Great Barrier Island. My favourite place in NZ to get away and unwind. And crime is almost unknown on the island as it is such a close community. Doors are rarely locked. So what these two did, will have an impact and their actions deserve consequences.

They looked around the house and then Tattersfield kicked and smashed a glass pane in a French door and reached through to unlock it. They stole significant items and caused damage by breaking bottles on the floor, pulling items off the walls, and smashing solar panels and wiring with an axe they found in a shed.

They caused $14,518 in damage, and took items worth $3560. The pair later sunk some of the gear in the sea and drank some of the alcohol.

A day after returning to the house where they were staying, they ended their holiday and drove back to Christchurch. They went to the Christchurch Central Police Station and told them what they had done. They handed over some of the stolen property.

You have to give credit for going unprompted to the Police and confessing. However I suspect that may have been motivated by the suspicion that people would work out they were responsible.

US and Russia on UN Secretary-General

Politico report:

The U.S. and Russia have turned the race for United Nations secretary-general into the latest front in their escalating war for geopolitical influence.

Washington, which is believed to want a woman in the U.N. role, has been backing Argentina’s foreign minister in the secretive selection process, U.N. sources say. Meanwhile, U.N. sources say Russia is angling for a female Bulgarian diplomat with family ties to the Soviet Union, a nod to its desire to see an Eastern European in the job.

Malcorra (Argentina) only had seven votes in favour (one less than Clark) and Bokova had nine votes in the first straw poll. But if US and Russia veto each other’s preferred candidates.

During these early rounds of informal balloting, the five permanent members of the Security Council — the U.S., Britain, France, China and Russia — cannot use their vetoes to knock out candidates. But as the field narrows, the U.S. and Russian influence will only increase because they will be allowed to use their vetoes. By October, when many expect a victor to emerge, that person may not be the one who’s most qualified but instead someone who draws the fewest objections from Obama and Putin.

The next straw poll is out in the next 24 hours.

State sanctioned death squads

The Herald reports:

Philippine President Rodrigo “The Punisher” Duterte is set to name up to 50 officials allegedly involved in drugs as state-sanctioned street executions of civilians soar to 600.

Mr Duterte’s lawyer Salvador Panelo said that 27 local executives identified in intelligence reports would be unmasked this week that figure had almost doubled.

“My God, you will be shocked,” Mr Panelo said last night, according to thePhilippine Inquirer.

He declined a request to give examples, citing operational reasons, but revealed many on the list were from prominent families and included provincial mayors and police generals and military figures.

The extraordinary development comes a day after Mr Duterte issued a “shoot on sight” order for Mayor Rolando Espinosa of Albuera and his son Rolando “Kerwin” Espinosa after three mayoral staffers were caught with ice, known as shabu in the Philippines.

The Radyo Inquirer said that the mayor surrendered on Tuesday after police shot dead six bodyguards during an early morning raid at the heavily fortified family compound.

Authorities have vowed to hunt down and kill his son, who vanished weeks ago after learning Duterte was coming after him.

No need for evidence or a trial. The President names you, and pays people to kill you. It’s like Judge Dredd, but not a comic.

More than 120,000 drug addicts – most of them shabu (ice) dependent – have been forced to “surrender” to police since Duterte took office in May.

Users are required to attend mass ceremonies where they register as drug criminals and pledge to never take drugs again.

Those who don’t register, or break their contract, do so at the risk of being hunted down and killed, either by police or at the hands of vigilantes.

Again no evidence or trial. Just guilt and death upon accusation.

Mr Duterte, whose “death squads” were linked to dozens of unexplained murders during his 20 year reign as mayor of Davao, has given police and civilians the power to kill users and pushers on sight.

“Rehab is no longer an option,” Mr Duterte told a cheering audience in Davao City.

“So those of you in your neighbourhood, feel free to call us, the police, or do it yourself if you have a gun. You have my support.”

In another well-received speech, he told the crowd: “In an arrest, you must overcome the resistance of the criminal. You must really overcome it. And if he fights, and he fights to death, you can kill him.

“Then I’ll give you a medal.”

Sadly his approval ratings are sky high.