The House has voted to suspend Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke for seven days, Rawiri Waititi for 21 days and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer for 21 days. The punishment was not for doing a haka. MPs can and do do hakas. It was for doing it during a vote, preventing the House from concluding the vote – and also for crossing the floor to intimidate ACT MPs.

One thing I will almost guarantee – they will not do it again. A 24 hour suspension as Chris Hipkins pleaded for would be a zero disincentive. In fact it would be an incentive. They have never shown one ounce of contrition or apology. A 21 day suspension is long enough to be meaningful and deter them doing it again.

A Radio NZ Reid Research poll has found support for the Privileges Committee recommendation of a three week suspension for the TPM co-leaders.

The co-leaders forgot to turn up not only to speak in the Budget debate, but even to vote on the Budget. Really will anyone notice they’re not there for three weeks?

Anyway the net support for the suspensions (those saying too lenient or about right less those saying too harsh is:

• All voters +18%
• Nat voters +67%
• Lab voters -13%
• Green voters -59%
• NZ First voters +73%
• ACT voters +90%

A significant minority of Labour voters, 38%, thought the proposed punishments were too lenient or about right. This is in contrast to Chris Hipkins who said they should be for 24 hours instead of 21 days.

I am a resolute defender of the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state (as are all two state solution proponents), and of its right to defend itself after the terrible 7 October attacks which saw civilians, women, children tortured, raped and murdered.

A huge amount of the criticism of Israel’s response has been hysterical and illegitimate. Those who label it genocide just wish to smear Israel, and make the Holocaust seem less uniquely evil. No country in the world would not respond with ferocity and military might to an attack like October 7.

However being a defender of the right of Israel to respond, doesn’t mean you have to agree with everything the Netanyahu Government does. While many of the attacks on the response are bad faith, there is considerable division inside Israel about whether the continued military action is a good idea. The way you can tell a good faith criticism from a bad faith criticism is often by whom the criticism is targeted at. If they refer to Zionists of the State of Israel, it is almost always bad faith. If they refer to the Netanyahu Government, then it is more likely to be good faith – recognising Governments take actions that not everyone in a country supports.

I am now one of those who finds it hard to see a coherent strategic end game from the Netanyahu Government. I can’t honestly say that I see a military strategy that will result in a safer Israel. Look there are no easy options. The longer the military action goes on, the more Palestine civilians get killed, and the more future terrorists you end up with. But leaving Hamas in power isn’t a great idea either. However the ratio of legitimate targets to collateral damage is getting uncomfortably high.

One solution I have been toying with, is to abandon Gaza entirely. Don’t just have one wall, but have a massive DMZ like between North and South Korea. Build two massive walls around a km apart, and have the space in between littered with mines so no attacks can be made through the DMZ.

This would mean abandoning the policy of allowing people to cross from Palestinian territory into Israel for work. It was a noble goal that boost incomes through employment, and working together would lead to peaceful co-existence. Around 200,000 Palestinians were able to cross into Israel every day to work. Peace through prosperity gas failed as a strategy though.

If Hamas remains in Gaza, you can’t have border crossings. So build a huge DMZ to secure Israel’s border with Gaza. Drop bombs on it every so often to take out any attempted tunnels. That will prevent another 7 October. Sure there may still be missile attacks from Gaza, but you just retaliate to those as they occur (as you do with the Houthi etc).

So I am no longer convinced that the current military strategy of the Netanyahu Government is justified. If 21 months of military attacks hasn’t got rid of Hamas, then how confident are you another six months will? Or another 12 months or 24 months? Do you have continual war?

But returning to pre-October 7 settings is not an option either. I think you need to be pragmatic and say that peaceful co-existence is off the agenda for decades. Therefore Israel should effectively recognise Gaza as part of a Palestinian State, and build a huge DMZ to prevent any crossings between Israel and Gaza. This is not an ideal solution, but it works in Korea and has kept the peace for decades.

Stuff reported:

In July 2024 Zara*, a Wellington sex worker, had a sickening realisation when her client went to shower at the beginning of their session: his phone’s voice recorder was allegedly activated.

That client was Michael Forbes, who at the time was press secretary to Minister for Social Development Louise Upston, a former Minister for Women. In February this year he was appointed acting deputy chief press secretary to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

Asked why it was decided no charges would be laid, Wellington District Manager Criminal Investigations, Detective Inspector John Van Den Heuvel, said, “ Police received a complaint from a Wellington brothel in July last year, after a client was found to have concerning images and recordings on his phone.

While the law may not have been broken, it is of course morally wrong to record someone having sex without their consent – even if it is audio, not video.

It is good that the Prime Minister acted so decisively, with Forbes exiting his role within hours of the PM being informed of what happened.

The bigger issue is why the Police didn’t notify the Beehive last July, as they should under the No Surprises policy. A press secretary for a front bench Minister under police investigation definitely is the sort of thing that should be notified to the Minister of Police.

A reader has read Jacinda Ardern’s autobiography and sent in this book review of it:

Jacinda Ardern has bestowed upon the nation a gift – a memoir as warm as a winter sunrise and just as forgiving of shadows. Every page hums with kindness, the quality that first sent global headlines floating south across the Pacific.

What captivates is the considerate restraint. Entire policy battles slip past like polite strangers while budget lines stay unruffled and statistics remain at home. Ardern spares us the burden of numbers – empathy for those who deem arithmetic discourteous.

She prefers melody to measurement, and her speeches rippling through these chapters are silky and consoling. Outcomes make only cameo appearances, which feel oddly soothing. Leadership, we learn, is about tone, not toil.

That resonance endures. Corridors of Wellington still echo with her gentle cadence while Cabinets yet unborn prepare announcements that glide majestically beyond detail. The belief blooms that spirit alone will close deficit gaps, plant forests and build houses.

Any later occupant of the Ninth Floor will draw from this manual. Each may decide that certainty is overrated and that firmness of vision need never be encumbered by measurable plans. In this, the memoir rebadges itself as an evergreen field guide for administrations that prize applause above arithmetic.

Ardern’s handling of memory is equally elegant. Lockdowns become communal song sessions, quarantine queues a study in national patience. The months when vaccines waited fashionably offshore look like lessons in mindfulness, each omission glowing like a candle left intentionally unlit.

Readers hunting for a critique will find none, and therein lies the mischief. Such abundant praise inevitably frames the absent explanations. The kindness is infectious, the selectivity instructive.

A Different Kind of Power reminds us that feeling good is half the battle and often the whole campaign. Results may fade, yet moods endure. In celebrating that truth, the memoir offers a compass for every government bold enough to govern by hope alone, secure in the belief that smiles travel further than spreadsheets.

ABC reports:

It happens every week in Boulder, Colorado.

A group of volunteers from the Run for Their Lives organisation silently march through the streets to raise awareness of the hostages still held in Gaza. …

The FBI said the suspect allegedly shouted “Free Palestine” while using a makeshift flamethrower at a crowd of people.

So a group of Jewish Americans do a silent march every week to raise awareness of hostages, and an illegal overstayer attacked them with a flamethrower and Molotov cocktails.

How many pro-Hamas people in the West have been randomly attacked, and compare that to the numerous attacks on Jews who think Israel has a right to exist.

The Radio NZ Reid Research poll is:

Vote

• National 30.7% (-2.2% from March)
• Labour 33.2% (+0.9%)
• Greens 11.6% (+1.6%)
• ACT 6.6% (-2.8%)
• NZ First 9.1% (+1.9%)
• TPM 5.5% (+0.5%)

Seats

• National 38 (-10 from election)
• Labour 43 (+9)
• Greens 14 (-1)
• ACT 8 (-3)
• NZ First 11 (+3)
• TPM 7 (+1)

Govt

• CR 57
• CL 63

Preferred PM

News.com.au reports:

On Wednesday, Labor approved a 40-year extension of Australia’s largest gas plant. Newly appointed Environment Minister Murray Watt’s decision on Wednesday to grant approval for Woodside’s North West Shelf extension in Western Australia’s Pilbara has drawn praise from industry and unions and condemnation from conservationists and First Nations groups.

Mr Watt announced the long-awaited call on the North West Shelf gas processing plant in Karratha, twice delayed by former Minister Tanya Plibersek in Labor’s first term, allowing Woodside to extend production and supply the domestic market by another 40 years until 2070.

Australian Labor, unlike NZ Labour, recognises you need gas for secure supply.

The 1 News Verian poll is:

Vote

• National 34% (-2% from April)
• Labour 29% (-3%)
• Greens 12% (+2%)
• ACT 8% (-1%)
• NZ First 8% (+1%)
• TPM 3.7% (+0.3%)

Seats

• National 43 (-5 from election)
• Labour 37 (+3)
• Greens 15 (nc)
• ACT 10 (-1)
• NZ First 10 (+2)
• TPM 6 (nc)

Govt

• CR 63
• CL 58

Preferred PM

• Luxon 23% (nc)
• Hipkins 19% (-1%)
• Peters 6% (-1%)
• Swarbrick 5% (+1%)
• Seymour 4% (+1%)

Economic Outlook next 12 months

• Better 41% (+2%)
• Same 38% (-2%)
• Worse 21% (nc)

Sci Tech Daily reports:

Previous studies have consistently shown a long-term trend of mass loss, particularly in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, while glaciers in East Antarctica appeared relatively stable. However, a recent study led by Dr. Wang and Prof. Shen at Tongji University has found a surprising shift: between 2021 and 2023, the AIS experienced a record-breaking increase in overall mass.

This is very good news. This doesn’t mean of course temperatures are not rising (they are) and that sea levels are not increasing (they are, but modestly). But what it reinforces is the climate system is very complex, and we don’t understand all aspects of it.

So a very clear trend of ice loss from 2002 to 2020, and then an abrupt gain.

In terms of sea level, the melting ice was increasing sea levels by 0.4 ml/yr but since 2021 it has been offsetting any increase by 0.3 ml/yr.

The Ukrainian military have managed to take out 40 nuclear-capable long-range Russian bombers, representing a third of the Russian air missile carrier fleet.

The cost of the damaged or destroyed planes is estimated to be between US$2 and US$7 billion.

They were taken out by 117 drones that cost around $4,000 each, but not launched from Ukrainian territory. It was a cunning plan, that was 18 months in the planning.

The drones were smuggled into Russia in trucks and then placed into mobile wooden kit houses. The trucks went around 4,.000 kms into Russia and then the roofs of the kit houses were remotely retracted, and the drones took off and targeted planes at five different airports.

Slava Ukraini!

UPDATE: Further details are that the truck drivers were not Ukranians but just Russians who had been hired, with no idea what was hidden in the roof of the truck. Can you imagine their surprise when you’re driving along, and suddenly a few dozen drones blast off from your truck!

The full list is here. Titular honours are:

DNZM

To be Dames Companion of the said Order:

Ms Ranjna Patel, ONZM, QSM, JP, of Auckland. For services to ethnic communities, health and family violence prevention.

Emeritus Distinguished Professor Alison Stewart, CNZM, of Prebbleton. For services to plant science and the arable sector.

Mrs Catriona Ruth Williams, MNZM, of Masterton. For services to spinal cord injury research and equestrian sport.

KNZM

To be Knights Companion of the said Order:

The Honourable Mark Leslie Smith Cooper, KC, of Martinborough. For services to the judiciary.

Mr Brendan Jon Lindsay, MNZM, of Auckland. For services to business and philanthropy.

Mr Ewan Francis Smith, CNZM, of Rarotonga, Cook Islands. For services to Cook Islands business and tourism.

Now we have a final result for the Australian election, we can look at how the Australian pollsters did.

This shows the primary and then TPP vote for each pollsters’s final pre-election poll.

The final TPP result of 55.2% to 44.8% was greater than all the polls. Four had it 53 to 47, so were out by 2.2% only. Those most out on the TPP were Ipsos followed by Freshwater and Demos.

In terms of the primary vote, YouGov were closest to the Coalition at 31.4% to 31.8%. The most out went to Freshwater who had them 5.2% too high, and then Resolve at 3.2%.

For the ALP, Redbridge were only 0.6% out and Ipsos had them a massive 6.6% too low.

Four pollsters got the Greens almost spot on. The furthest out was YouGov at 2.4%.

And One Nation had Roy Morgan get them almost spot on, while Essential had them 3.6% too low.

If we look at how many results were within the margin of error for their sample size we have:

1. Roy Morgan 6/6
2. Newspoll, Redbridge 5/6
3. Spectre, Resolve 3/6
4. Ipsos, Freshwater, Demos, Essential 2/6
5. YouGov 1/6

And the average error for each pollster was:

1. Redbridge 1.5%
2. Roy Morgan 1.7%
3. Newspoll 1.9%
4. Demos 2.3%
5. resolve 2.3%
6. YouGov 2.4%
7. Spectre 2.6%
8. Essential 2.6%
9. Freshwater 2.7%
10. Ipsos 3.0%

As always you should never judge a pollster off just one poll. And all pollsters did get it right that Labor would win – but they all underestimated the degree.

David Seymour said:

Not only is our mission fundamentally hard, but sometimes we’ve made it harder than necessary. I hesitate to bring it up, but we’ve burned ourselves on one or two of our own brushfires along the way.

Our perk buster took a perk. Our tough on crime guy got convicted. Our leadership had a civil war. We were subject to an unconventional coup.

In 2012 I wrote an obituary for the ACT Party. I said:

Trauma surgeons at Wellington Political Hospital announced today that the ACT Party was judged clinically dead after succumbing to a grievous assault from Kim Dotcom.

Surgeons battled all night to save the political party, but the accumulated trauma from years of abuse meant that the patient was already in critical condition when Dotcom fell on it, crushing the remaining life out of the teenage political party.

I traversed their many challenges:

Stepdad Richard Prebble moved out, and Father Roger disapproved of Rodney, the new stepdad. They started to argue in front of the kids. Even worse, suave Don stole away ACT’s first girlfriend, so at age 12 ACT got reduced to two MPs in 2005.

Rodney and Heather just wouldn’t stop throwing things at each other. ACT didn’t even know who started the fights, but it normally ended up in the middle with the bruises to show from the domestic abuse. CYFS were called in, but the fighting and abuse continued.

A worse bruise came when Rodney and his girlfriend were playing with their model plane and it ended up scarring and concussing ACT. ACT’s friends say that ACT’s good looks never fully recovered from that. But worse was to come when David stole someone’s wallet and ID as a joke. It was no joke, when it turned out that David had done this before, and ACT knew about it and never told anyone. ACT got beaten up by all its mates at school for not telling them about this earlier.

Even at this stage, ACT had some hope of a normal life ahead. But then Don turned up again and told ACT that he was going to take over or he would beat ACT up so badly it would die. So ACT was forced to become friends with Don and Don then got ACT stoned on cannabis. Some kids can handle cannabis, but not ACT. It fell off a cliff breaking its arms and legs.

I concluded:

ACT’s friends are very sad at this prognosis. They recall the good times they had with ACT. They remember the good things ACT achieved. They don’t want to see ACT dead and buried, but they know that true friends don’t let mates suffer in agony. They know it is time to turn off the life support, and let ACT die.

ACT had got 1.1% at the 2011 election and only hing on with John Banks winning Epsom. They generally polled around 0.5% for the next three years and got 0.7% in 2014, again just winning Epsom with David Seymour as the sole MP.

2017 saw an even worse result with just 0.5%. The thought that in eight years time Seymour would be Deputy Prime Minister would have got you locked up in Carrington. And in 2018, ACT continued to poll under 1%. But in 2019 their support ticked up to 2% and just before Covid struck they even made 3.5%. Covid-19 saw their support drop back to 1.8% but then it climbed and by June they had hit 5%, then 6%, then 7% and got 7.6%. An amazing performance, and not a flash in the pan due to an election debate worm.

Then despite all those new MPs, the much larger caucus kept it together and as National has internal issues, ACT hit 18.5% in late 2021. They dropped back as National recovered but still went on to get an increased vote of 8.6% in 2023, and the coalition agreement that saw David Seymour become Deputy Prime Minister on Sunday.

I am very glad I was wrong in 2012, and it is a tribute to ACT and Seymour that they have gone from a 0.5% party to a major force in NZ politics.

John Tyler was born in 1790 – 235 years ago. He became the 10th President of the United States, yet his grandson has just died.

He had 15 children between 1815 (when he was 25) and 1860 (when he was 70). He was President from 1841 to 1845.

One of the 150 was Lyon Tyler who was born in 1853 (when John was 63) and lived until 1935. He had six children including Harrison Tyler who was born in 1928 (when Lyon was 75!) and Harrison died on 25 May 2025, aged 96.

So by having children at age 63 and then age 75 and then living to be 96, you have the grandson of the 10th US President alive until 2025.

The Herald reports:

Act leader David Seymour is condemning an “immature” challenge to a charity fight from prominent Treaty activist Eru Kapa-Kingi. 

In a video posted to social media yesterday, Kapa-Kingi took exception to Seymour calling his mother, Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, an “idiot” during the House’s debate on the Regulatory Standards Bill last week. 

“David Seymour crossed a line when he attacked my mum in Parliament. This just got personal,” Kapa-Kingi said. 

He said Seymour was clearly unaware of the rule that should someone talk “smack” about a person’s mother, “then you’re bound to get slapped up”. …

Kapa-Kingi, also a Professional Teaching Fellow with the University of Auckland, then raised the possibility of a “charity fight” between the pair, in which he promised to devote all funds to pro-Treaty initiatives, should he win.

Kapa-Kingi threatens violence against Seymour, because he called another MP an idiot in the House. He is or was a Vice-President of Te Pati Maori, was on their payroll, and was a candidate for them at the last election.

A party of threatened violence and extremism.

A guest post by Lucy Rogers:

As readers may be aware, in February the IPCA issued a report criticising the law of protest in Aotearoa as unfit for purpose. While I think the IPCA report is inadequate as a comprehensive response to the cases in question (and it does not purport to be) it does however raise some important points.

The current system is costing a lot of money

One such point is that because there is no requirement for protest organisers to notify Police in advance of street marches, Police are having to pay exorbitant amounts of taxpayers’ money (to the tune of $25,000 a pop) for experts to create traffic management plans for street marches on main roads with less than two days’ notice.

The IPCA proposes a “mandatory” notification system

Owing to this and other concerns, the IPCA proposes a “mandatory” requirement that protest organisers provide Police with 21 days’ advance notice of specified categories of protest to facilitate adequate and cost effective policing. Nevertheless, this supposedly mandatory system would not in the IPCA’s recommendation attach criminal penalties if protest organisers do not comply. The IPCA says that the incentive for compliance would be protesters’ immunity from prosecution following compliance with parameters issued by Police in advance of the protest.

The Police already have powers to manage protests (and should do)

I am aware that many readers are likely to react with alarm to Police having powers to set parameters around protests due to the possibility of abuse. However, I remind the reader both that the Police already have powers to set parameters around protests and that this is in fact necessary to maintain public order. The Albert Park fiasco is evidence enough of that. 

My proposed tweaks

Accordingly, I support the IPCA’s recommendation, but with the following two tweaks:

1. 21 days’ notice is an excessive requirement. Reduce that to seven days. Seven days is reasonable when it comes to (say) protests obstructing main roads (and is actually barely enough time to facilitate effective policing).
2. Make the notification system optional but formalised. This avoids the problem of categorising which protests require notification and which do not.

Protest organisers will be aware of the likelihood of a volatile response

The IPCA raise the problem of Police not necessarily being aware of which protests are likely to provoke a hostile reaction from certain sections of the public. I think an optional but formalised notification system (which is in effect what the IPCA proposes) avoids this problem because protest organisers themselves will be aware of the likelihood of a hostile response and will in turn comply with the notification system, thus avoiding the need for Police intelligence.

The notification system would require Police to maintain public order

Just as the notification system would immunise protesters against arrest following compliance with Police instructions, it would formally require Police to protect protesters from violent counter-protesters (and vice-versa). At present although officers swear to maintain public order in oaths made when admitted to the Police, I cannot find any legal provision specifically identifying penalties should they intentionally fail to do this. Legislation could make this more explicit.

The notification system would increase Police accountability

Another benefit of this system which I do not believe the IPCA have raised is that rather than leaving policing decisions in large part to officers on the day, it would enable protest organisers to challenge unfair Police directions (or inadequate protection of protesters) in court via urgent injunction. The system in fact arguably increases Police accountability.

So to conclude, I support it

Nobody believes in the right to protest more deeply than I do. In fact I would gladly die for it. But in my view this proposal would help to prevent Albert Park scenarios in future, protect the right to free speech, protect protesters from counter-protesters, protect counter-protesters from protesters, and save the taxpayer money. Not only that but as at present, people could choose not to comply with it (but with the caveat that in that case they may not expect the benefits of compliance). What’s not to like? 

All of which is to say that I am an enthusiastic supporter of Police doing their jobs, and non-selectively.

Peter Bisley writes:

In the current competitive scenario, the average address in New Zealand has 2.05 options within 10 minutes’ drive. Full entrance of The Warehouse into groceries at all current locations would increase this to 2.77. Demerger of PAK’nSAVE from New World and Four Square, without The Warehouse, would increase the average options per address to 2.66, while both options simultaneously would give the average address 3.37 grocery options within 10 minutes’ drive.

Duopolies are better than monopolies but you need more than two options for true competition. The rule of Three and Four is that a stable competitive market has three competitors with the largest no more than four times the market share of the smallest.

The combination of The Warehouse going full supermarket and spinning off Pak’NSave looks like it would be very useful.

The NYT reports:

As Paul Walczak awaited sentencing early this year, his best hope for avoiding prison time rested with the newly inaugurated president.

Mr. Walczak, a former nursing home executive who had pleaded guilty to tax crimes days after the 2024 election, submitted a pardon application to President Trump around Inauguration Day. The application focused not solely on Mr. Walczak’s offenses but also on the political activity of his mother, Elizabeth Fago.

Ms. Fago had raised millions of dollars for Mr. Trump’s campaigns and those of other Republicans, the application said. It also highlighted her connections to an effort to sabotage Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s 2020 campaign by publicizing the addiction diary of his daughter Ashley Biden — an episode that drew law enforcement scrutiny. …

Still, weeks went by and no pardon was forthcoming, even as Mr. Trump issued clemency grants to hundreds of other allies.

Then, Ms. Fago was invited to a $1-million-per-person fund-raising dinner last month that promised face-to-face access to Mr. Trump at his private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla.

Less than three weeks after she attended the dinner, Mr. Trump signed a full and unconditional pardon.

Many Presidents have made bad or dubious pardons, but giving one three weeks after someone’s mother donates $1 million is a new low.