It was amazing watching the results come in and as the small lead for Brexit remained and then started to grow, to realise that the peoples of the United Kingdom had voted to leave the European Union. Until the votes were counted no one from the Prime Minister down knew what the outcome would be. The polls, the pundits, the experts, the media – none of them counted – just the votes of 33.5 million people – where each vote was worth no more or no less than any other.

It is rare the people get to make such momentous decisions. Normally they get to decide things indirectly through proxies such as MPs. But on such a fundamental decision, this was their decision.

Matthew d-Ancona wrote in the Guardian:

Before analysis, let us admit to awe: the sheer scale of the moment requires it. The word “historic” is deployed too lazily in political discourse. But it is entirely appropriate this morning. This is a hugely significant day in British (and European) history.

When a party loses an election, its soon-to-be-ex-leader rallies the troops and promises a different result next time. But no such option is open to the crushed chieftains of remain today. There is no “next time”.

This was a unique opportunity to seal Britain’s relationship with the European Union, or to end it. And the voters – at a high level of turnout – decided that it was time to go. They heard the warnings, listened to experts of every kind tell them that Brexit meant disaster, watched the prime minister as he urged them not to take a terrible risk. And their answer was: get stuffed.

So why did they vote for Brexit, despite all the warnings? I think there were three reasons – two major and one minor.

1. Democracy

The EU overall has been a force for good with many benefits for many people. However it is not what most would regard as a democratic government. The heart of democracy is that the people can sack a Government they have got weary of.  There was no real way for the people of Europe or the UK to sack the EU Government when they think it has got it wrong and needs to go. Without such a pressure release valve, discontent grows and grows.

The concept of an EU is good. The structure of the EU is bad. It may have worked when they had nine members, but not for 28.

Consider how unhappy we would be in NZ if our Government was not elected at the polls directly. Instead we each elected a local Mayor and Council (and all at different times) and all the Mayors got together and they decided who would make up the national Cabinet and Government to decide on our laws.  We would not stand for it.

You need to have the ability for the people to directly sack a Government, and effectively choose its replacement. It is that ability and need to be responsive to the public that makes a Government accountable.

2. Borders

The whole point of nation states is to have control of your borders and your population.  This is not racist or xenophobic. The elites who think it is, are out of step. You can be pro-immigration, but against uncontrolled immigration.

NZ has a good pro-immigration system. We set criteria for immigrants and if you have enough skills, education, wealth, prospects etc you can qualify to live here.

The UK as part of the EU has almost no control over who can live and work in the UK. 500 million people in the EU all have the right to move to the UK and work there if they wish to. Of course it also gives UK people the right to work and live in the EU – and that was a great right for many UK citizens.

Now again when the EU was nine countries, this might have been seen as a good trade off. But in an EU of 28 countries, with such a disparity in living standards, it was not.

Think of NZ again. We basically have an EU type agreement with Australia. Citizens of each country can live and work in the other. Not quite as good as the EU, because no guarantee of welfare eligibility.

But think if this arrangement was expanded beyond NZ and Australia. And it included all the Pacific countries who have much less developed economies (and hence many more people would want to live here). Think if it included all of Asia – that we have to take anyone from 27 other countries who choose to live here, regardless of their skills, education, experience, wealth or ability to support themselves. Do we think we would sign up for that?

Again you can be very pro-immigration but anti uncontrolled immigration.

3. EU regulations

A decade ago most of the angst against the EU was the endless regulations coming from Brussels that were ridiculed and resented. However I think this was a minor factor when it came to the vote. The Tories in 2005 campaigned on these, and lost. While people agreed with them, they didn’t think it was as important as issue as the economy, the NHS, schools etc. For the hard core activists, this was red meat, but less important to the majority of the public.

For the majority it was about being independent, being able to sack your Government and being able to control your borders.

The Telegraph reports:

David Cameron has resigned as Prime Minister after Britain voted to leave the European Union.

It followed a turbulent night with Remain campaigners quietly confident until the early hours when results from Newcastle and Sunderland showed better than expected returns for the Brexit camp. …

With the Leave campaign securing 52 per cent of the vote, Mr Cameron addressed the nation in an emotional speech outside 10 Downing Street to announce that he would be stepping down.

Statements are expected to be made by Sinn Fein and the SNP later today calling for a breakaway from the Union.

The end of David Cameron’s political career barely a year after he had the huge triumph of winning a majority between all expectations.

It may also be the end of the United Kingdom as Scotland is quite likely to secede and Northern Ireland less likely.

And possibly the beginning of the end of the European Union in its current form.

Less significantly Jeremy Corbyn may be toast also.

Well Leave is doing better than expected and is currently leading by around 4%. However many London areas yet to report and they are expected to vote remain.

Only prediction from me at this stage is it will be very close.

UPDATE: I think Leave may have done it. Their lead is now over 700,000 and growing. Not certain but would need some large margins for Remain in remaining areas to pull that back.

UPDATE2: BBC and ITV have called it for Brexit. Today is UK Independence Day.

Doubt Cameron will survive even a year.

Auckland Future have announced:

Graham Lowe, highly respected former rugby league football coach and administrator, is to contest the Albany ward for Auckland Future in the upcoming council elections. He will join current Upper Harbour local board chair, Lisa Whyte as the second Auckland Future candidate.

Lowe coached the New Zealand Kiwis in the 1980s including New Zealand’s first win over Australia in 12 years in 1983. He went on to coach Wigan in their first championship win in 27 years during the 1986-87 British Rugby Football League competition.

According to Auckland Future chairman, Peter Tong, Graham brings a wealth of leadership experience to the team.

“We are delighted Graham has chosen to serve the city after such a distinguished career in rugby league coaching and administration. Decades of sport leadership can only benefit the working of Council at the governance level,” he said.

Graham said he was entering local body politics because the city needed strong leadership and a united team and he strongly supported Auckland Future’s aim to secure a centre right majority on Council.

“Ratepayers need to know what they are voting for and in Auckland Future they will get a team of councilors who want to cap rates, eliminate wasteful expenditure and work together collaboratively as a team. For the North Shore our first priority is to see Penlink brought forward as a matter of urgency.

Great to see two great candidates for Albany. Auckland needs candidates who will not vote for 9.9% rates increases.

The Guardian reports:

Doctors will try to persuade ministers at Westminster, Holyrood and Stormont to introduce an opt-out system for organ donation to prevent 1,000 deaths a year because of organ shortages.

The British Medical Association will lobby the three parliaments to follow the lead set by Wales, which in December introduced presumed consent for organ retrieval. Under this system people who die in hospital are presumed to have consented to their organs being used for transplantation unless they have expressly indicated otherwise.

Great to see UK doctors voting for an organ donation system that will save more lives.

In NZ sadly some doctors seem to be against even an opt in system. You may have opted in by ticking your wish to donate on your drivers licence, but NZ doctors say they will refuse to even look at what your wishes are unless a family member ask them to.

I am mystified at how NZ doctors have ended up in such a different place to their UK counterparts.

Stuff reports:

The Government has rejected parts of a damning report into its handling of an inquiry into leaks from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Ombudsman Ron Paterson has told the Government it should compensate a former top diplomat whose career ended in tatters after he was targeted by the inquiry, which was instigated by the State Services Commission.

He has also recommended a formal apology.

The 2013 inquiry has already cost taxpayers as much as $1 million, including lawyers costs and fees paid to the woman who headed it, Paula Rebstock. 

State Services Commissioner Iain Rennie said on Thursday he did not agree with some of Paterson’s findings and Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully stood by comments made at the time the inquiry was released.

McCully said the Ombudsman’s review criticised the steps taken in assessing the responsibility of particular individuals for “some very unprofessional behaviour” – but did not dispute that those behaviours occurred.

“My statement, made at the time of the release of the Rebstock report, referred to unprofessional and disreputable conduct but did not name any individuals. My statement was undoubtedly correct.”

The 2013 inquiry headed resulted in senior diplomats Derek Leask and Nigel Fyfe  being singled out , despite evidence the leaks that sparked it originated from within the State Services Commission itself. The person responsible cannot be identified because of suppression orders.

While they were not named in the State Services Commission-ordered inquiry, Leask and Fyfe were easily identifiable and their conduct was publicly  criticised by the State Services Commissioner and Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully after personal emails were published revealing their opposition to restructuring of the ministry.

I make no comment on Leask and Fyfe specifically but there was definitely some disgraceful behaviour within MFAT at the time. The lowlight being calls being made directly to Phil Goff from an MFAT conference room.

In a statement, Leask said the 2013 findings against him and other MFAT staff had been rubbished by the Ombudsman.

“It is good to have the slur on my reputation removed. Today’s findings by the Ombudsman go beyond the vindication of my actions. The Ombudsman’s report suggests that the 2012/2013 SSC investigation was out of control from start to finish.”

Leask, a former deputy secretary of foreign affairs and New Zealand’s high commissioner in London, said It was a matter of great public concern that the SSC acted in the way it did.

In a statement, Rennie said he did not agree with all elements of the Ombudsman’s findings, in particular that in making findings relating to the investigation being outside its terms of reference.

But  he accepted that the way in which the investigation dealt with Leask “could have been better”.

Stuff reports:

Labour leader Andrew Little has been spending time in his old stomping ground – but wouldn’t be drawn on whether he’ll stand in the electorate again.

Little held a public meeting, ironically in the blue room, at the New Plymouth Club on Wednesday night.

He had attended the 2016 Citizens Awards at the New Plymouth District Council on Tuesday night and visited his former school, New Plymouth Boys High, on Wednesday ahead of the meeting.

However Little, who was soundly beaten by National’s Jonathan Young in the 2014 general election, remained tight-lipped on whether he would stand in the New Plymouth electorate in 2017.

“I haven’t made that decision, I have got to make that very soon but I haven’t made that decision,” he said.

Of course he won’t stand again. He got thrashed there last time.

He is looking for a safe seat. Almost certainly he is gunning for Rongotai.

The Herald reports:

An Auckland man who distributed extremist videos, featuring footage of people being shot, beheaded and burned alive has been dragged from court screaming “Allahu Akbar”.

Imran Patel, 26, launched into the rant as he was jailed for three years nine months before Auckland District Court this afternoon.

“Tell John Key to stop being a slave to America and get out of Iraq. Allahu Akbar,” he shouted, while being restrained by court security.

It is understood to be the first person in the country to be sentenced over so-called terrorist material and the Crown said he had an “utter lack of insight and remorse”.

I hope once he is released, authorities keep a very close eye on him. Or buy him a one way ticket to another country.

In October, the Mt Roskill man sent text messages to 52 people with a link to an ISIS-made video, with accompanying words about revenge.

The montage showed 14 prisoners lined up before two men shot them in the head one by one.

“Each slumps to the ground after being shot”, the summary of facts said.

Patel received a warning from his cell provider the following day about the content of the message but went on to text a similar link 24 hours later.

The next video showed people in orange jumpsuits being beheaded by masked men and resulted in further censure by the telecommunications company.

On October 22, Patel was barred from sending messages.

His reaction was to get a new number and address the same 52 recipients.

“For those of you who complained [to the non-believers], remember that you’re a Muslim; please behave like one,” he texted.

So he went and got a new phone number just so he could keep sending out links to the terrorist killings. And he thinks it was un-Muslim to report his behaviour.

Patel has form. The Herald reported in 2014:

Imran Patel allegedly threatened senior members of the New Zealand Muslim Association, which owns the Avondale Islamic Centre in Blockhouse Bay Rd.

The alleged threats arose from tensions between two Islamic factions battling for control of the centre.

Patel and the imam, Abu Abdulla, were among those who had been barred from entering the mosque by the association.

Patel appeared at the Auckland District Court yesterday charged with verbally threatening to kill and/or do grievous bodily harm.

He threatens to kill. He circulates videos glorifying executions. I’m not that confident he is someone who will stop at words.

Oh actually he has gone further:

It can now be revealed that just over a year ago Patel was jailed for 10 months for holding a large knife to a driver’s throat and threatening to kill him while yelling an Islamic exclamation.

Patel gestured to the driver then ran across the road and held a knife – measuring 20cm – to the driver’s throat yelling, “Allahu Akbar” [Allah is the greatest], and, “I’m going to kill you motherf***er”.

So here is the challenge. This guy has not yet killed anyone, but he seems well on his way to doing so. How do we as a society stop him doing so?

There have been nine polls since the shooting of Jo Cox. Six show remain ahead and three show Brexit ahead.

A simple average of them has Remain ahead by 46% to 44%.

If you break them into phone polls and online polls then:

• Phone polls Remain 48% Brexit 44%
• Online polls Remain 44% Brexit 45%

So I’d say the odds are in favour of remain but as always turnout will be key.

Very exciting to see an entire country voting on such a critical issue. The world awaits the result!

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister John Key said today in a press conference that there was no chance of the Government paying a ransom for the New Zealander being held hostage in Nigeria.

The Kiwi is also with at least two Australians, who were attacked on the outskirts of Calabar by gunmen who killed their driver.

Mr Key says it’s likely the kidnappers want money, rather than being part of a terrorist organisation.

But he says our Government has a strong policy not to pay ransoms.

Mr Key says paying a ransom would put a bounty on the head of any New Zealander who travelled to a dangerous part of the world, and would potentially make the situation worse.

It would sadly.

The Nigerian Government said it was throwing everything it could behind the operation to secure the release of a New Zealand man, four other expats and two Nigerians.

The group was kidnapped after their driver was shot dead as he was taking them to work.

They all worked for the Australian mining and engineering company Macmahon.

Nigerian Government spokesman Christian Ita said security services, the police and army were doing everything possible to ensure the release of the New Zealander and everyone else affected.

They knew where the group was being held, he said.

Nigeria is an extremely dangerous country to visit. There’s few countries I don’t want to visit, but that is one of them.

A reader sent this in. It shows how nervous global financial markets are if banks are warning they may have to suspend FX trading.

The South Auckland Middle School is a charter school and its student population makes it a decile 1 school.

So how has this school done against the average decile 1 state school for national standards. The data follows,. Note the SAMS data is for 2015 and the national average is for 2014 (as 2015 not yet available), but probably will not have changed much.

• Year 7 reading 73% vs 58%
• Year 7 maths 63% vs 57%
• Year 7 writing 77% vs 51%
• Year 8 reading 70% vs 62%
• Year 8 maths 77% vs 51%
• Year 8 writing 70% vs 52%

Again I remind people Labour has vowed to close this school down.

This graphic from Stuff gives a good idea how variable network pricing may work. The AA noted:

“This is a very different proposition to what we saw come out of Auckland Council last year with a proposed motorway user charge,” Irvine said. …

Motorists would receive a bill based on the number of kilometres they travelled on which roads and at what times.

The idea being that it would replace the petrol tax.  Like the AA I think it is a good idea. It is basically user pays rather than subsidies.

Stuff reports:

Southland people are staunch and walk tall, but will struggle financially without speaking up, an Invercargill father says.

Invercargill residents Nathaniel and Kathrine Barrett, who work as chefs, are one of the reportedly increasing ‘middle-class poor’ families in Southland. 

They are looking to relocate to Christchurch or Dunedin for better hours and pay.

Invercargill Salvation Army Invercargill Corps officer Annette Bray said the organisation was seeing a growing number of people coming to them for help. 

“There’s a working class poor. More and more people are coming through.” 

It could be that there were two family members working but together they didn’t have a full time job, Bray said. 

“Twenty-five percent of people who come to us for help, somebody is working in the family. 

“Probably in days gone by, if someone was working in the family they were doing pretty well. But these days it’s not enough.” 

Nathaniel works about 20-25 hours a week, and Kathrine 30, but with restaurant clientele dwindling in the cold Invercargill winter they had fewer work hours. 

In a typical week, Kathrine would earn about $400 and Nathaniel about $360. 

Nathaniel said the Work and Income benefit had a $600 gross income cut-off point, which they earn above.

However, their weekly expenses topped $800. 

They sometimes could not afford their state home rent and they and their daughters, aged 1 and 2, may have to move in with family.

Nathaniel and Kathrine seem a good family, and I am sure it is very tough for them with such a relatively low level of income. But the article (as the media often does) doesn’t reveal how much state support they currently get. It would be:

• Family Tax Credit $137/week
• In-work tax credit $72/week
• Childcare subsidy $500/week (if 50 hours used)
• State house subsidy: $215/week (average for all state houses, unable to calculate for their actual house)

So even without them qualifying for a benefit, they still get a considerable amount of support from taxpayers.

The Washington Post reports:

Rates of marijuana use among Colorado’s teenagers are essentially unchanged in the years since the state’s voters legalized marijuana in 2012, new survey data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment shows.

In 2015, 21 percent of Colorado youths had used marijuana in the past 30 days. That rate is slightly lower than the national average and down slightly from the 25 percent who used marijuana in 2009, before legalization. The survey was based on a random sample of 17,000 middle and high school students in Colorado.

The key data is for 2011 just before legalisation and 2015 afterwards. Basically flat at 22% in 2011 and 21% in 2015. The rate for ever used in their life also flat being 39% and 38% respectively.

Still await with interest other data on drug use and abuse and associated harms before and after legalisation. But this data is useful in showing teenage use did not increase with legalisation.

Stuff reports:

Changes to Nelson City Council’s Code of Conduct has the potential to gag councillors and turn them into spin doctors for the council, according to a researcher.

Massey University researcher Catherine Strong says a paper she published in 2014 found 10 councils from around the country had inserted phrases to state elected members could not criticise council, its policy, or actions.

Strong says Nelson has also re-worded its code in November, 2014.

The changes were similar to those made by councils she had studied for her paper, which she found had the potential to “fetter” free speech. 

Nelson City Council’s reworded code 5.10 currently states: “Elected members public statements expressing their opinion on matters before the Council shall not criticise the conduct of the Council, other elected members or officers of the Council.”

What nonsense. They’re trying to say a Councillor can’t criticise the Mayor. This would be like Parliament having a Standing Order saying MPs can’t criticise the Prime Minister. Any Council with such a provision in its code should scrap it.

Danyl McL blogs on Te Papa’s purchase of Peter Snell’s singlet in an auction:

They shut down their award-winning publishing company so they could buy a fucking singlet.

Almost all his commentators of course agree with him. Putting aside the faulty logic (Te Tapa Press has not closed down), and comparing a one off purchase to ongoing costs, I do wonder if this is a sign of cultural snobbery – Peter Snell was just an athelete – that is not part of our culture and heritage and should not be funded by Te Papa.

For my 2c I reckon an exhibit that shows off Snell’s singlet and has a history of his running and gold medals would be hugely popular at Te Papa, and hundreds of thousands of kids would see it over time.

Nick Smith released:

Claims by the Green Party on contaminated sites expenditure expose how poorly they understand economics, Environment Minister Dr Nick Smith says.

“Their claim the Government has underspent on contaminated sites clean-up by $32.6 million involves basic accounting errors that raise serious questions about their economic competence.

“It is a nonsense for the Greens to claim that the transfer of $11.3 million for the Tui mine clean-up from the annual appropriations to a multi-year one is a cut. The funding is identical but a multi-year appropriation recognises a particular project may be spread over a number of financial years.

Maybe we should crowd-fund a Treasury secondee for the Greens so they don’t make such basic errors.

Tim Murphy at The Spinoff covers a recent Auckland Mayoral Forum. Most of the article is about Desley Simpson and if she’ll become Deputy Mayor, but he also scores the candidates out of 10 for their performance at the forum. His scores:

1. Victoria Crone 8/10
2. Phil Goff 7/10
3. Mark Thomas 6/10
4. John Palino 5/10
5. David Hay 4/10
6. Penny Bright 0/10 (a no show)

Stuff reports:

A petition to be sent to the Government demanding Mike Hosking be removed from television screens has now clocked up more than 14,000 signatories in just over a week.

Started by lawyer Dan Wayman the petition asks that Mike Hosking “be removed from public broadcasting at TVNZ”

I’m tempted to call these people cultural fascists.

First of all do they really think the bloody Government should decide who is and is not allowed to appear on television as a broadcaster?

Secondly they seem to hate views they disagree with, and want Hosking gone because he says things they don’t like.

This seems to be a phenomenon that mainly occurs on the left. I don’t recall 14,000 right wingers signing a petition demanding John Campbell be removed from public broadcasting.

If you don’t like what someone says, then don’t watch. Change the channel.

I think NZ is better when it has diversity of views on air – I think it is good both Hosking and Campbell are broadcasters.

But these cultural fascists hate views that are not their own, and think the Government should decide who is allowed to be on air. They can get f****d.

This post contains details of what is rumoured to happen in next week’s Episode 10, so do not read if you want that a surprise.

Continue reading »