ABC reports:

It happens every week in Boulder, Colorado.

A group of volunteers from the Run for Their Lives organisation silently march through the streets to raise awareness of the hostages still held in Gaza. …

The FBI said the suspect allegedly shouted “Free Palestine” while using a makeshift flamethrower at a crowd of people.

So a group of Jewish Americans do a silent march every week to raise awareness of hostages, and an illegal overstayer attacked them with a flamethrower and Molotov cocktails.

How many pro-Hamas people in the West have been randomly attacked, and compare that to the numerous attacks on Jews who think Israel has a right to exist.

The Radio NZ Reid Research poll is:

Vote

• National 30.7% (-2.2% from March)
• Labour 33.2% (+0.9%)
• Greens 11.6% (+1.6%)
• ACT 6.6% (-2.8%)
• NZ First 9.1% (+1.9%)
• TPM 5.5% (+0.5%)

Seats

• National 38 (-10 from election)
• Labour 43 (+9)
• Greens 14 (-1)
• ACT 8 (-3)
• NZ First 11 (+3)
• TPM 7 (+1)

Govt

• CR 57
• CL 63

Preferred PM

News.com.au reports:

On Wednesday, Labor approved a 40-year extension of Australia’s largest gas plant. Newly appointed Environment Minister Murray Watt’s decision on Wednesday to grant approval for Woodside’s North West Shelf extension in Western Australia’s Pilbara has drawn praise from industry and unions and condemnation from conservationists and First Nations groups.

Mr Watt announced the long-awaited call on the North West Shelf gas processing plant in Karratha, twice delayed by former Minister Tanya Plibersek in Labor’s first term, allowing Woodside to extend production and supply the domestic market by another 40 years until 2070.

Australian Labor, unlike NZ Labour, recognises you need gas for secure supply.

The 1 News Verian poll is:

Vote

• National 34% (-2% from April)
• Labour 29% (-3%)
• Greens 12% (+2%)
• ACT 8% (-1%)
• NZ First 8% (+1%)
• TPM 3.7% (+0.3%)

Seats

• National 43 (-5 from election)
• Labour 37 (+3)
• Greens 15 (nc)
• ACT 10 (-1)
• NZ First 10 (+2)
• TPM 6 (nc)

Govt

• CR 63
• CL 58

Preferred PM

• Luxon 23% (nc)
• Hipkins 19% (-1%)
• Peters 6% (-1%)
• Swarbrick 5% (+1%)
• Seymour 4% (+1%)

Economic Outlook next 12 months

• Better 41% (+2%)
• Same 38% (-2%)
• Worse 21% (nc)

Sci Tech Daily reports:

Previous studies have consistently shown a long-term trend of mass loss, particularly in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, while glaciers in East Antarctica appeared relatively stable. However, a recent study led by Dr. Wang and Prof. Shen at Tongji University has found a surprising shift: between 2021 and 2023, the AIS experienced a record-breaking increase in overall mass.

This is very good news. This doesn’t mean of course temperatures are not rising (they are) and that sea levels are not increasing (they are, but modestly). But what it reinforces is the climate system is very complex, and we don’t understand all aspects of it.

So a very clear trend of ice loss from 2002 to 2020, and then an abrupt gain.

In terms of sea level, the melting ice was increasing sea levels by 0.4 ml/yr but since 2021 it has been offsetting any increase by 0.3 ml/yr.

The Ukrainian military have managed to take out 40 nuclear-capable long-range Russian bombers, representing a third of the Russian air missile carrier fleet.

The cost of the damaged or destroyed planes is estimated to be between US$2 and US$7 billion.

They were taken out by 117 drones that cost around $4,000 each, but not launched from Ukrainian territory. It was a cunning plan, that was 18 months in the planning.

The drones were smuggled into Russia in trucks and then placed into mobile wooden kit houses. The trucks went around 4,.000 kms into Russia and then the roofs of the kit houses were remotely retracted, and the drones took off and targeted planes at five different airports.

Slava Ukraini!

UPDATE: Further details are that the truck drivers were not Ukranians but just Russians who had been hired, with no idea what was hidden in the roof of the truck. Can you imagine their surprise when you’re driving along, and suddenly a few dozen drones blast off from your truck!

The full list is here. Titular honours are:

DNZM

To be Dames Companion of the said Order:

Ms Ranjna Patel, ONZM, QSM, JP, of Auckland. For services to ethnic communities, health and family violence prevention.

Emeritus Distinguished Professor Alison Stewart, CNZM, of Prebbleton. For services to plant science and the arable sector.

Mrs Catriona Ruth Williams, MNZM, of Masterton. For services to spinal cord injury research and equestrian sport.

KNZM

To be Knights Companion of the said Order:

The Honourable Mark Leslie Smith Cooper, KC, of Martinborough. For services to the judiciary.

Mr Brendan Jon Lindsay, MNZM, of Auckland. For services to business and philanthropy.

Mr Ewan Francis Smith, CNZM, of Rarotonga, Cook Islands. For services to Cook Islands business and tourism.

Now we have a final result for the Australian election, we can look at how the Australian pollsters did.

This shows the primary and then TPP vote for each pollsters’s final pre-election poll.

The final TPP result of 55.2% to 44.8% was greater than all the polls. Four had it 53 to 47, so were out by 2.2% only. Those most out on the TPP were Ipsos followed by Freshwater and Demos.

In terms of the primary vote, YouGov were closest to the Coalition at 31.4% to 31.8%. The most out went to Freshwater who had them 5.2% too high, and then Resolve at 3.2%.

For the ALP, Redbridge were only 0.6% out and Ipsos had them a massive 6.6% too low.

Four pollsters got the Greens almost spot on. The furthest out was YouGov at 2.4%.

And One Nation had Roy Morgan get them almost spot on, while Essential had them 3.6% too low.

If we look at how many results were within the margin of error for their sample size we have:

1. Roy Morgan 6/6
2. Newspoll, Redbridge 5/6
3. Spectre, Resolve 3/6
4. Ipsos, Freshwater, Demos, Essential 2/6
5. YouGov 1/6

And the average error for each pollster was:

1. Redbridge 1.5%
2. Roy Morgan 1.7%
3. Newspoll 1.9%
4. Demos 2.3%
5. resolve 2.3%
6. YouGov 2.4%
7. Spectre 2.6%
8. Essential 2.6%
9. Freshwater 2.7%
10. Ipsos 3.0%

As always you should never judge a pollster off just one poll. And all pollsters did get it right that Labor would win – but they all underestimated the degree.

David Seymour said:

Not only is our mission fundamentally hard, but sometimes we’ve made it harder than necessary. I hesitate to bring it up, but we’ve burned ourselves on one or two of our own brushfires along the way.

Our perk buster took a perk. Our tough on crime guy got convicted. Our leadership had a civil war. We were subject to an unconventional coup.

In 2012 I wrote an obituary for the ACT Party. I said:

Trauma surgeons at Wellington Political Hospital announced today that the ACT Party was judged clinically dead after succumbing to a grievous assault from Kim Dotcom.

Surgeons battled all night to save the political party, but the accumulated trauma from years of abuse meant that the patient was already in critical condition when Dotcom fell on it, crushing the remaining life out of the teenage political party.

I traversed their many challenges:

Stepdad Richard Prebble moved out, and Father Roger disapproved of Rodney, the new stepdad. They started to argue in front of the kids. Even worse, suave Don stole away ACT’s first girlfriend, so at age 12 ACT got reduced to two MPs in 2005.

Rodney and Heather just wouldn’t stop throwing things at each other. ACT didn’t even know who started the fights, but it normally ended up in the middle with the bruises to show from the domestic abuse. CYFS were called in, but the fighting and abuse continued.

A worse bruise came when Rodney and his girlfriend were playing with their model plane and it ended up scarring and concussing ACT. ACT’s friends say that ACT’s good looks never fully recovered from that. But worse was to come when David stole someone’s wallet and ID as a joke. It was no joke, when it turned out that David had done this before, and ACT knew about it and never told anyone. ACT got beaten up by all its mates at school for not telling them about this earlier.

Even at this stage, ACT had some hope of a normal life ahead. But then Don turned up again and told ACT that he was going to take over or he would beat ACT up so badly it would die. So ACT was forced to become friends with Don and Don then got ACT stoned on cannabis. Some kids can handle cannabis, but not ACT. It fell off a cliff breaking its arms and legs.

I concluded:

ACT’s friends are very sad at this prognosis. They recall the good times they had with ACT. They remember the good things ACT achieved. They don’t want to see ACT dead and buried, but they know that true friends don’t let mates suffer in agony. They know it is time to turn off the life support, and let ACT die.

ACT had got 1.1% at the 2011 election and only hing on with John Banks winning Epsom. They generally polled around 0.5% for the next three years and got 0.7% in 2014, again just winning Epsom with David Seymour as the sole MP.

2017 saw an even worse result with just 0.5%. The thought that in eight years time Seymour would be Deputy Prime Minister would have got you locked up in Carrington. And in 2018, ACT continued to poll under 1%. But in 2019 their support ticked up to 2% and just before Covid struck they even made 3.5%. Covid-19 saw their support drop back to 1.8% but then it climbed and by June they had hit 5%, then 6%, then 7% and got 7.6%. An amazing performance, and not a flash in the pan due to an election debate worm.

Then despite all those new MPs, the much larger caucus kept it together and as National has internal issues, ACT hit 18.5% in late 2021. They dropped back as National recovered but still went on to get an increased vote of 8.6% in 2023, and the coalition agreement that saw David Seymour become Deputy Prime Minister on Sunday.

I am very glad I was wrong in 2012, and it is a tribute to ACT and Seymour that they have gone from a 0.5% party to a major force in NZ politics.

John Tyler was born in 1790 – 235 years ago. He became the 10th President of the United States, yet his grandson has just died.

He had 15 children between 1815 (when he was 25) and 1860 (when he was 70). He was President from 1841 to 1845.

One of the 150 was Lyon Tyler who was born in 1853 (when John was 63) and lived until 1935. He had six children including Harrison Tyler who was born in 1928 (when Lyon was 75!) and Harrison died on 25 May 2025, aged 96.

So by having children at age 63 and then age 75 and then living to be 96, you have the grandson of the 10th US President alive until 2025.

The Herald reports:

Act leader David Seymour is condemning an “immature” challenge to a charity fight from prominent Treaty activist Eru Kapa-Kingi. 

In a video posted to social media yesterday, Kapa-Kingi took exception to Seymour calling his mother, Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, an “idiot” during the House’s debate on the Regulatory Standards Bill last week. 

“David Seymour crossed a line when he attacked my mum in Parliament. This just got personal,” Kapa-Kingi said. 

He said Seymour was clearly unaware of the rule that should someone talk “smack” about a person’s mother, “then you’re bound to get slapped up”. …

Kapa-Kingi, also a Professional Teaching Fellow with the University of Auckland, then raised the possibility of a “charity fight” between the pair, in which he promised to devote all funds to pro-Treaty initiatives, should he win.

Kapa-Kingi threatens violence against Seymour, because he called another MP an idiot in the House. He is or was a Vice-President of Te Pati Maori, was on their payroll, and was a candidate for them at the last election.

A party of threatened violence and extremism.

A guest post by Lucy Rogers:

As readers may be aware, in February the IPCA issued a report criticising the law of protest in Aotearoa as unfit for purpose. While I think the IPCA report is inadequate as a comprehensive response to the cases in question (and it does not purport to be) it does however raise some important points.

The current system is costing a lot of money

One such point is that because there is no requirement for protest organisers to notify Police in advance of street marches, Police are having to pay exorbitant amounts of taxpayers’ money (to the tune of $25,000 a pop) for experts to create traffic management plans for street marches on main roads with less than two days’ notice.

The IPCA proposes a “mandatory” notification system

Owing to this and other concerns, the IPCA proposes a “mandatory” requirement that protest organisers provide Police with 21 days’ advance notice of specified categories of protest to facilitate adequate and cost effective policing. Nevertheless, this supposedly mandatory system would not in the IPCA’s recommendation attach criminal penalties if protest organisers do not comply. The IPCA says that the incentive for compliance would be protesters’ immunity from prosecution following compliance with parameters issued by Police in advance of the protest.

The Police already have powers to manage protests (and should do)

I am aware that many readers are likely to react with alarm to Police having powers to set parameters around protests due to the possibility of abuse. However, I remind the reader both that the Police already have powers to set parameters around protests and that this is in fact necessary to maintain public order. The Albert Park fiasco is evidence enough of that. 

My proposed tweaks

Accordingly, I support the IPCA’s recommendation, but with the following two tweaks:

1. 21 days’ notice is an excessive requirement. Reduce that to seven days. Seven days is reasonable when it comes to (say) protests obstructing main roads (and is actually barely enough time to facilitate effective policing).
2. Make the notification system optional but formalised. This avoids the problem of categorising which protests require notification and which do not.

Protest organisers will be aware of the likelihood of a volatile response

The IPCA raise the problem of Police not necessarily being aware of which protests are likely to provoke a hostile reaction from certain sections of the public. I think an optional but formalised notification system (which is in effect what the IPCA proposes) avoids this problem because protest organisers themselves will be aware of the likelihood of a hostile response and will in turn comply with the notification system, thus avoiding the need for Police intelligence.

The notification system would require Police to maintain public order

Just as the notification system would immunise protesters against arrest following compliance with Police instructions, it would formally require Police to protect protesters from violent counter-protesters (and vice-versa). At present although officers swear to maintain public order in oaths made when admitted to the Police, I cannot find any legal provision specifically identifying penalties should they intentionally fail to do this. Legislation could make this more explicit.

The notification system would increase Police accountability

Another benefit of this system which I do not believe the IPCA have raised is that rather than leaving policing decisions in large part to officers on the day, it would enable protest organisers to challenge unfair Police directions (or inadequate protection of protesters) in court via urgent injunction. The system in fact arguably increases Police accountability.

So to conclude, I support it

Nobody believes in the right to protest more deeply than I do. In fact I would gladly die for it. But in my view this proposal would help to prevent Albert Park scenarios in future, protect the right to free speech, protect protesters from counter-protesters, protect counter-protesters from protesters, and save the taxpayer money. Not only that but as at present, people could choose not to comply with it (but with the caveat that in that case they may not expect the benefits of compliance). What’s not to like? 

All of which is to say that I am an enthusiastic supporter of Police doing their jobs, and non-selectively.

Peter Bisley writes:

In the current competitive scenario, the average address in New Zealand has 2.05 options within 10 minutes’ drive. Full entrance of The Warehouse into groceries at all current locations would increase this to 2.77. Demerger of PAK’nSAVE from New World and Four Square, without The Warehouse, would increase the average options per address to 2.66, while both options simultaneously would give the average address 3.37 grocery options within 10 minutes’ drive.

Duopolies are better than monopolies but you need more than two options for true competition. The rule of Three and Four is that a stable competitive market has three competitors with the largest no more than four times the market share of the smallest.

The combination of The Warehouse going full supermarket and spinning off Pak’NSave looks like it would be very useful.

The NYT reports:

As Paul Walczak awaited sentencing early this year, his best hope for avoiding prison time rested with the newly inaugurated president.

Mr. Walczak, a former nursing home executive who had pleaded guilty to tax crimes days after the 2024 election, submitted a pardon application to President Trump around Inauguration Day. The application focused not solely on Mr. Walczak’s offenses but also on the political activity of his mother, Elizabeth Fago.

Ms. Fago had raised millions of dollars for Mr. Trump’s campaigns and those of other Republicans, the application said. It also highlighted her connections to an effort to sabotage Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s 2020 campaign by publicizing the addiction diary of his daughter Ashley Biden — an episode that drew law enforcement scrutiny. …

Still, weeks went by and no pardon was forthcoming, even as Mr. Trump issued clemency grants to hundreds of other allies.

Then, Ms. Fago was invited to a $1-million-per-person fund-raising dinner last month that promised face-to-face access to Mr. Trump at his private Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla.

Less than three weeks after she attended the dinner, Mr. Trump signed a full and unconditional pardon.

Many Presidents have made bad or dubious pardons, but giving one three weeks after someone’s mother donates $1 million is a new low.

I was interested in how the demographics of the Youth Parliament (selected by MPs) compares to the demographics of Parliament itself (elected and selected by parties). The comparison is:

So in terms of gender, closer to the NZ population for women.

In terms of ethnicity, Parliament has far fewer Asian MPs than the general population, but in Youth Parliament they are slightly over-represented. Likewise for Pacific.

The Daily Sceptic reports:

This document was supposed to support the case for banning the AfD. Specifically, it was supposed to convince those who matter that ban proceedings have a good chance of success with the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe. On this front, the dossier is a dismal failure. This is why our new Chancellor Friedrich Merz has suddenly decided – in the 48 hours since the thing was leaked – that he opposes banning the AfD after all.

We have to be very clear about the standards here. For a party to be banned in the Federal Republic, it must be opposed to the “freiheitliche demokratische Grundordnung”, or the “free democratic basic order”. This is an ideological trinity consisting of human dignity, democracy and the rule of law. Pure opposition is however not enough; the offending party must also seek to overcome at least one of these triune deities in an “aggressive” and “combative” fashion. The anti-democratic agenda must moreover be associated with the party as a whole. Practically, this means you need to get party leadership militating aggressively against democracy and/or the rule of law and/or human dignity.

The BfV assessment falls so far short of this standard, you have to wonder if there are saboteurs working secretly to defend the AfD inside the offices of constitutional protection. To say that this thing is shit would be an understatement.

So the dossier against the AFD falls short. But the part that interested me was this:

you need to get party leadership militating aggressively against democracy and/or the rule of law

If that is the German definition of an extremist party that should be banned, which party in NZ would that best apply to?

Politico reports:

A federal court has struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs on dozens of countries, saying his effort to justify them with broad claims of national emergencies exceeded his legal authority.

The unanimous ruling of a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade strikes a blow to one of the central planks of Trump’s economic agenda at a time he is seeking to use tariffs as leverage to strike trade deals around the world.

This is not a surprise, but is very significant.

Trump is President, not King, Congress passes laws that set tax rates and tariff rates, just as in New Zealand the Prime Minister can’t unilaterally declare a tax or tariff.

The GOP has a majority in the House and Senate. If they want higher tariffs, they can try and pass a law imposing them.

Arguing that New Zealand exports to the US constitute a national emergency, was never to go fly with a court.

As Eric notes, very amusing that the usual deranged people who blame Atlas for everything, aren’t giving Atlas credit for stopping Trump’s tariffs!

Radio NZ reports:

More than 80,000 Kiwis must quit smoking before the end of the year to meet the goal of Smokefree 2025, which was launched 14 years ago.

But Professor of Public Health Chris Bullen tells The Detail that it is unlikely to happen – “I don’t believe so, sadly.

“The evidence suggests we are not heading in the right direction fast enough,” says Bullen, who is also the director of the National Institute for Health Innovation.

“We have got more work to do in 2026 and beyond.”

The smokefree goal aims to have less than 5 percent of the population smoking by December, but the latest data reveals there are still about 300,000 daily smokers across the country.

The daily smoking rate has dropped from 16.4% to 6.9% since 2011, which is a huge reduction. It is correct that it is unlikely to drop 1.9% in one year, as those remaining are a small but persistent hardcore.

Bullen says part of the issue is, last year, the coalition government repealed three areas of the Smokefree law, most importantly the denicotinisation of tobacco products (where the nicotine is basically taken out of cigarettes) and banning the sale of tobacco products to those born after 1 January 2009.

“I think we could have gotten to the goal under the previous legislation, but that was repealed by the current government.

This is just nonsense, and we know it is because look at when these provisions were to come into force. The ban (which would not have worked) to those born after 1 January 2009 would not take effect until 2027, so claiming it would help you make a 2025 target is embarrassing.

A tobacco industry-funded report has just revealed that 25 percent of cigarettes sold in New Zealand are from the black market, smuggled into the country, largely from China and South Korea, and available on Facebook Marketplace, at construction sites, and in some dairies.

Black market cigarettes are about half the price of legal packets, which can cost up to $45.

But Bullen is not convinced the percentage of illegal sales is as high as reported. He says it is more likely around the 10-15 percent mark.

He believes the tobacco industry inflates the number – and the problem – to “encourage the government to ease up on being tough on their product”.

Here Professor Bullen has an opinion that the black market is not as high as as reported, but with not any proof or data to back his view.

One source of data is government excise revenue on tobacco. For the year to March 2025 it was $1.49b and in March 2023 it was $1.81b. So it has dropped 18% despite the rate going up and no reported change in smoking rates in this period.

New research, which overlays vape stores on school locations, shows 44 percent of schools have a vape store within a one-kilometre radius

This old chestnut. There is almost no area in urban New Zealand that is not within a 1 kms radius of a school. That is a 314 hectare circle. We have 2,500 schools.

Since 2020, it has been illegal to sell vapes to people under 18, but students as young as 10 and 11 are vaping across New Zealand today.

Yet he is convinced prohibition works!