How did the Australian pollsters go?
Now we have a final result for the Australian election, we can look at how the Australian pollsters did.
This shows the primary and then TPP vote for each pollsters’s final pre-election poll.
The final TPP result of 55.2% to 44.8% was greater than all the polls. Four had it 53 to 47, so were out by 2.2% only. Those most out on the TPP were Ipsos followed by Freshwater and Demos.
In terms of the primary vote, YouGov were closest to the Coalition at 31.4% to 31.8%. The most out went to Freshwater who had them 5.2% too high, and then Resolve at 3.2%.
For the ALP, Redbridge were only 0.6% out and Ipsos had them a massive 6.6% too low.
Four pollsters got the Greens almost spot on. The furthest out was YouGov at 2.4%.
And One Nation had Roy Morgan get them almost spot on, while Essential had them 3.6% too low.
If we look at how many results were within the margin of error for their sample size we have:
- Roy Morgan 6/6
- Newspoll, Redbridge 5/6
- Spectre, Resolve 3/6
- Ipsos, Freshwater, Demos, Essential 2/6
- YouGov 1/6
And the average error for each pollster was:
- Redbridge 1.5%
- Roy Morgan 1.7%
- Newspoll 1.9%
- Demos 2.3%
- resolve 2.3%
- YouGov 2.4%
- Spectre 2.6%
- Essential 2.6%
- Freshwater 2.7%
- Ipsos 3.0%
As always you should never judge a pollster off just one poll. And all pollsters did get it right that Labor would win – but they all underestimated the degree.