CBS reports:

Most of the suspects identified in connection with a series of robberies and sexual assaults in Cologne during New Year’s celebrations are refugees, prosecutors said Monday.

The crimes, described as unprecedented by authorities, sparked uproar in Germany and a heated debate about the country’s ability to integrate almost 1.1 million people who sought asylum there last year.

The incident has led to both a political and a personal backlash against the mostly Middle Eastern and North African asylum seekers that flooded the country last year.

Cologne prosecutor Ulrich Bremer said 73 suspects have been identified so far – most of them from North Africa. A total of 1,075 criminal complaints have been filed, including 467 alleging crimes of a sexual nature ranging from insults to rape.

“The overwhelming majority of persons fall into the general category of refugees,” Bremer told The Associated Press, saying recent reports describing only three of the suspects as refugees were “total nonsense.”

Initially, authorities in Cologne were accused of downplaying the fact that the attackers included many asylum-seekers because of the political sensitivity of the issue.

The suspects included 30 Moroccan nationals, 27 Algerians, four Iraqis, three Germans, three Syrians, three Tunisians, and one each from Libya, Iran and Montenegro, Bremer said.

“They have various legal statuses, including illegal entry, asylum-seekers and asylum applicants,” he said of the foreign suspects. “That covers the overwhelming majority of suspects.”

They’re a very small proportions of overall refugees, but their actions are understandably turning public opinion against taking refugees.

I’m in favour of taking refugees – but through a system where they get vetted before they arrive in your country, not afterwards.

The Washington Examiner reports:

The American traditions of free expression and respectful discourse are slipping away, and college campuses and Twitter are prime examples, according to a member of the Federal Communications Commission.

“I think that poses a special danger to a country that cherishes First Amendment speech, freedom of expression, even freedom of association,” FCC Commissioner Ajit Pai told the Washington Examiner. “I think it’s dangerous, frankly, that we don’t see more often people espousing the First Amendment view that we should have a robust marketplace of ideas where everybody should be willing and able to participate.

“Largely what we’re seeing, especially on college campuses, is that if my view is in the majority and I don’t agree with your view, then I have the right to shout you down, disrupt your events, or otherwise suppress your ability to get your voice heard,” Pai added.

Sadly very true.

The Herald reports:

Thousands of Kiwis who arrived in Australia after it tightened its immigration rules in 2001 will now be given an easier path to seek Australian citizenship under certain conditions.

If they earned A$53,000 over five consecutive years ($57,000) between 2001 and today, they will eventually be able to apply for permanent residence and eventually apply for citizenship.

Mr Key estimates that up to 100,000 of the 305,000 Kiwis who arrived to live in Australia between 2001 and today could meet the criteria and get a new pathway to citizenship.

That’s the best solution for Kiwis in Australia who don’t get the same rights as Australians – allow them to become Australians.

Tracy Watkins notes how rare this is:

Leverage – it’s that thing Australia has got in spades in the trans-Tasman relationship, and something that has always been in short supply on our side.

So whether it’s thanks to Pyjama diplomacy, trans-Tasman arm wrestling or the Anzac spirit, Malcolm Turnbull’s move to open the door wider to Kiwis across the Tasman is the first real instance of an Australian leader backing up his words about our “special relationship” with action on the expat front.

Actions, not words.

The most important plus is the reversal in trans-Tasman flows to a small net gain in people crossing the ditch from Australia to New Zealand, rather than the other way.

It would have been much harder to sell the deal if there were still 35,000 Kiwis a year flooding Australia’s borders, as there were when the Key government first took power.

It helps also that in the Australian business community at least, New Zealand is no longer seen as a basket case economy – in fact, most look across the Tasman with envy and ask their Government why things are not so good in Australia.

Our economic strength made this possible.

But there is also a personal dimension to the win.

Key and Turnbull clearly have a warm relationship – something that took Australian media by surprise when they learned Turnbull was hosting John and Bronagh Key overnight at his Sydney waterfront mansion.

They were dubbing it Pyjama diplomacy, noting that it was unprecedented for an Australian leader to host a visiting foreign leader at their own home.

And relationships count.

The Herald reports:

Former NZ First MP Brendan Horan has been told by police there is no evidence to support charges he used money from his dying mother’s bank account in an inappropriate way.

Mr Horan learned the two-year police investigation into the claims was over in a meeting with Detective Senior Sergeant Greg Turner at the Tauranga police station yesterday.

“He told me it was a comprehensive investigation,” Mr Horan said. “They went through my bank records, interviewed many people. After the investigation that has taken around two years, there’s no evidence to support any charges being laid against me.”

The allegations stemmed from a family disagreement over the will of Olwen Horan and effectively ended Mr Horan’s brief parliamentary career. He was a first term Member of Parliament for NZ First in December 2012 when the claims were made, with party leader Winston Peters passed information from those who had themselves changed her will to access a greater share of inheritance.

In Parliament, Mr Peters said he had on the “initial complainant and those associated with him, evidence to support their allegations”.

In the wake of his call, “substantive material” was provided which left him with “no confidence in Mr Horan’s ability to continue as a Member of Parliament”.

What Peters did was a disgrace. Horan didn’t even get a hearing or a chance to answer the accusations. Peters unilaterally declared himself persona non grata.

Roy Morgan released their monthly poll yesterday (on Curia here) and the first public poll post the TPP protests has National up 1.5% to 48.5% and Labour languishing on 27.0%.

My opinion is that the mnature of the protests alienate most New Zealanders and only appeal to those already hostile to the Government. For others, they are a big turn off.

Stuff reports an open letter for Apple CEO Tim Cook:

We were shocked and outraged by the deadly act of terrorism in San Bernardino last December. We mourn the loss of life and want justice for all those whose lives were affected. The FBI asked us for help in the days following the attack, and we have worked hard to support the government’s efforts to solve this horrible crime. We have no sympathy for terrorists.

When the FBI has requested data that’s in our possession, we have provided it. Apple complies with valid subpoenas and search warrants, as we have in the San Bernardino case. We have also made Apple engineers available to advise the FBI, and we’ve offered our best ideas on a number of investigative options at their disposal.

We have great respect for the professionals at the FBI, and we believe their intentions are good. Up to this point, we have done everything that is both within our power and within the law to help them. But now the U.S. government has asked us for something we simply do not have, and something we consider too dangerous to create. They have asked us to build a backdoor to the iPhone.

Specifically, the FBI wants us to make a new version of the iPhone operating system, circumventing several important security features, and install it on an iPhone recovered during the investigation. In the wrong hands, this software — which does not exist today — would have the potential to unlock any iPhone in someone’s physical possession.

The FBI may use different words to describe this tool, but make no mistake: Building a version of iOS that bypasses security in this way would undeniably create a backdoor. And while the government may argue that its use would be limited to this case, there is no way to guarantee such control.

Once such a tool exists, governments all over the world will demand they have access to it. Good on Apple for resisting.

The Herald editorial:

The Salvation Army’s annual stocktake on New Zealand’s social health has earned high credibility. It owes this to its recognition of progress as well as problems.

Its latest “state of the nation” report notes continuing improvement in many of the country’s most persistent concerns. Child poverty, for example. It finds children in material hardship, as measured by an absence of some essentials, has dropped from 21 per cent at the peak of the 2008-09 recession to 14 per cent last year, the level it was before the recession. That trend is not evident in the more standard statistical measure of poverty – living on less than 60 per cent of the median household income – but that is because earned incomes have risen.

Average weekly earnings rose 3 per cent last year while the cost of living rose only 0.1 per cent. Half of the increase in earnings came from pay rises, the rest from working more hours. At the same time, unemployment dropped for a second year in succession, though the proportion of the population employed did not rise as much as it did in 2013 and 2014, the peak of the Christchurch rebuild.

The population grew again by 2 per cent, slightly greater than the growth in employment which suggests the numbers retiring exceed the increase in new workers and immigration.

Perhaps most heartening, the report says increases in the statutory minimum wage have helped lift the incomes of the lowest paid faster than the highest paid employment, in finance. The gap may be wide but, contrary to careless rhetoric, it is apparently not necessarily getting wider.

Beneficiaries and their children do not benefit from increases in the minimum wage. Their incomes are indexed to price inflation rather than wages. That ought to change. But at least basic benefit rates will be raised by $25 from April 1.

The Salvation Army estimates 16.4 per cent of children are in families dependent on benefits, the lowest proportion since the late 1980s. That figure is close to the 14 per cent found lacking some of life’s essentials, suggesting the true extent of child poverty is around 14 per cent, not the 25 per cent often quoted by academic researchers.

Perhaps the best news of all, the Salvation Army’s findings are in pre-school education, which is now reaching beyond children in better-off areas thanks to efforts to reach the poorest deciles. Last year, 92.5 per cent of pre-school children received early education. It is a remarkable figure even if the quality of the education is uneven.

So good progress on child poverty, weekly earnings, unemployment, benefit levels, minimum wage and reducing welfare dependency plus pre-school education.

Not everything is improving. House prices moved further out of reach of first home-seekers in the year to last September. While the rate of capital gain slowed in the year to December, reflecting new taxes and lending restrictions on rental property, rents are rising more sharply as a result.

A compassionate country will never succumb to complacency while any of its citizens are in poverty or distress, but it does no harm to acknowledge the success of concerted effort.

Definitely still more to be done.

Claire Trevett writes in the NZ Herald:

If further evidence of Collins’ reincarnation was needed, it came in her response to questions about police being urged to review their pursuit practices. Collins pooh-poohed any suggestion she would tolerate a softer police chase policy. “I am saying to you and to New Zealand that while I am Minister of Police I am never going to support anything where police just give up the roads to criminals. Under any circumstances. And I would resign rather than do that.”

Nice. Very clear. That’s what people like. No ambiguity.

This last bit was pure hyperbolic nonsense, but she repeated it twice just to make sure everybody knew how very passionate she was on this point.

Instead, she had told police to look at inventive ways to stop people fleeing in the first place.

She even appeared to have come up with one of her own.

Which brings us to the third sign Collins was back and still a badass: the car-crushing law that gave her her nickname.

Collins proudly produced statistics showing boy racer offences had halved since she brought in the punishment of crushing the cars of repeat offenders. She was so proud she even hinted she could use it to catch two birds with one stone, by extending it so that the cars of those who flee police also ended up being crushed.

Admittedly, boy racers and police flee-ers are not necessarily distinct sets of people. Possibly she reasoned some of those fleeing police did so to prevent their cars being crushed. What better punishment than to crush their cars anyway? It is a genius idea. Not only is it hard to flee from the police without a car, but police would not have to embark on a chase at all if everybody’s cars were crushed. Why not go further and simply make car-crushing the punishment for every infringement? Crusher is back.

An idea worth considering – if you try and flee police, you are more likely to lose your car.

The Halberg winners were:

• Sportswoman – Lydia Ko
• Sportsman – Kane Williamson
• Disabled Sportsperson – Sophie Pascoe
• Team – All Blacks
• Coach – Steven Hansen
• Emerging Talent – Eliza McCartney
• Sporting Moment – Grant Elliott’s six on the 2nd to last ball to win
• Supreme Award – All Blacks

All fairly uncontroversial choices.

You could argue Ko should have got the supreme award as she got No 1 in a sport that is globally competitive, rather than played by a smaller number of countries. But you can understand why the All Blacks got it as the first team to defend the Rugby World Cup successfully.

Dan Carter may be hard done by not to get Sportsman of the Year but he did get International Rugby Player of the Year.

Stuff reports:

The British-born, Auckland-based CEO of a $4.4 billion Australasian company says New Zealand’s tax regime is so far ahead of Australia’s that all his new recruits want to move across the ditch. 

Fletcher Building chief executive Mark Adamson also tipped a bucket on any talk of an Australian infrastructure boom, saying the state of Australian politics has dented his confidence that projects will actually be delivered.

Adamson said that in contrast to New Zealand, Australia charged too much tax, through a system that was overly complex. 

“New Zealand is a very simple tax regime. I take five minutes to fill in my tax return and I’m a fairly complex tax person. The taxes are low and they simply encourage entrepreneurs to swing their bat and try new things,” he said.  

“And [that] is not to say that we don’t have good public services.” 

New Zealand’s tax system was a global leader, he said.

“New Zealand is a great model and the best system I’ve seen and I’ve worked all over the world.

“When we recruit, people spend five minutes looking at the tax regime and they all want to move to Auckland. No one wants to live in Sydney.”

We do have a fairly simple tax system, and IRD generally does a good job through online services of making it easy. Rates are still a bit too high, but we are better off than in Australia.

The Washington Examiner reports:

Media bias is a bigger problem than high dollar donations for 2016 likely voters focused on the presidential election, according to a new national survey.

Rasmussen Reports found that when asked “Which is the bigger problem in politics today,” voters picked media bias over money, 47 percent to 45 percent.

What’s more, the survey found that voters believe that the media has too much power in politics. Some 66 percent said it was too powerful, compared to just 26 percent who said the media wielded just enough influence in the election.

When 90% of journalists back a particular political party, it is no surprise that the public lose confidence.

Stephen Fry on Twitter:

Oh goodness, what fun twitter was in the early days, a secret bathing-pool in a magical glade in an enchanted forest. It was glorious ‘to turn as swimmers into cleanness leaping.’ We frolicked and water-bombed and sometimes, in the moonlight, skinny-dipped. We chattered and laughed and put the world to rights and shared thoughts sacred, silly and profane. But now the pool is stagnant. It is frothy with scum, clogged with weeds and littered with broken glass, sharp rocks and slimy rubbish. If you don’t watch yourself, with every move you’ll end up being gashed, broken, bruised or contused. Even if you negotiate the sharp rocks you’ll soon feel that too many people have peed in the pool for you to want to swim there any more. The fun is over.

To leave that metaphor, let us grieve at what twitter has become. A stalking ground for the sanctimoniously self-righteous who love to second-guess, to leap to conclusions and be offended – worse, to be offended on behalf of others they do not even know.

It has become a home of permanent outrage aided by a media who do daily stories on the basis that somewhere in the world someone has been offended by what someone else said on Twitter.

It’s as nasty and unwholesome a characteristic as can be imagined. It doesn’t matter whether they think they’re defending women, men, transgender people, Muslims, humanists … the ghastliness is absolutely the same.

He is sadly right.

But Stephen, these foul people are a minority! Indeed they are. But I would contend that just one turd in a reservoir is enough to persuade one not to drink from it. 99.9% of the water may be excrement free, but that doesn’t help. With Twitter, for me at least, the tipping point has been reached and the pollution of the service is now just too much.

I used to love Twitter. Now it is very depressing.

Stuff reports:

Students who signed up and paid for private rooms at Victoria University halls are shocked to hear – last minute – they’ll now be sharing bunk beds with strangers.

Katharine Jermyn Hall, on the corner of the Terrace and Boulcott St, sent emails to a number of students on Wednesday night telling them they would now be sharing a room at a discount rate.

The students, who signed up to single rooms as advertised, say the news comes just four days before they were due to move in to the 380-room hall. Students from other halls were also being consolidated into shared rooms.

Another student, said she was shocked to get the email just days before she was moving in.

“I called them straight away and said ‘I don’t want to share a room’, and they said ‘no, you’ll enjoy it, a lot of people really love it’.

That’s not a decision for the university to make and reeks of arrogance.

Students have applied for and been accepted for a single room. To tell them a few days before they arrive that they can’t have one is appalling, and leaves them with no options.

The students understood they were going into a private single room, which costs $359 per week. Many had paid thousands of dollars ahead in deposits.

To compensate, Victoria University said the affected students’ rent would be cut to $220 per week.

The contract the students signed says any changes to the price of the room is subject to two weeks’ notice.

On Thursday, Victoria University said that an increase in enrolments and a change in the number of withdrawals had led to the shared-room situation.

“Historically, up to one-third of students withdraw their accommodation application before the academic year starts, so it is normal practice to accept slightly more applications than the number of rooms available.

“This year there has been a further increase in enrolments and a change in the number of withdrawals. This means we have more applications than single rooms available at the moment although we expect this to be resolved in the coming weeks.”

The university should not accept more applications than places. They should take non refundable deposits and place others on a wait list.

But even if they do continue a policy of accepting more than places, then the better way to handle the over booking is not to force students into sharing, but to offer them discounted rates until you get enough who accept.

This is what good airlines do when over booked. They ask who is willing to fly on a later flight in exchange for a seat upgrade. They normally get a rush of people volunteering.

So a big fail for VUW in this. I actually wonder if they may be in breach of contract.

Many more had taken to Facebook to express their frustration, one saying “How do you expect to get laid [without] privacy”, another commenting ‘If I wanted a bunk bed I would visit my six-year-old nephew”.

Heh.

The Herald reports:

Faced with a cash shortage in its so-called caliphate, the Islamic State group has slashed salaries across the region, asked Raqqa residents to pay utility bills in black market American dollars, and is now releasing detainees for a price of $500 a person.

The extremists who once bragged about minting their own currency are having a hard time meeting expenses, thanks to coalition airstrikes and other measures that have eroded millions from their finances since last fall. Having built up loyalty among militants with good salaries and honeymoon and baby bonuses, the group has stopped providing even the smaller perks: free energy drinks and Snickers bars.

No free Snickers bars? That’s the last straw. I’m going home. Jihad is off.

Stuff reports:

Wellington is on track for the hottest February on record, and residents are feeling the burn.

Long days and hot nights have seen people struggling to get to sleep, doctors have noticed cases of “nasty” sunburn, and cicadas have appeared in deafening throngs.

Niwa climate scientist Gregor Macara said the spate of hot temperatures this month had been “quite remarkable”. 

“We certainly are well on track for the hottest February on record [since 1927].

“It’s subject to change, but the temperatures are tracking so high it’ll take quite a change to bring those back down. It’s quite exciting.”

The temperatures were remaining hot through the night, too, MetService communications meteorologist Lisa Murray said.

“We’ve had a run of warmer days and quite high overnight minimums, we’re talking up to 19 degrees overnight.

Wellington has been stunning the last few weeks – hot days, no rain, little wind. Wellingtonians have been loving it.

I was having coffee with a mate who works for a multinational oil company. I jokingly suggested to them that their company take out full page ads in the Dom Post claiming credit for the great summer 🙂

NBR reports:

New Zealand has moved up three places to just make the top 10 list of the most gender equal countries in the world.

The list, compiled by the World Economic Forum, has New Zealand in the tenth spot.

New Zealand came in behind Slovenia and Switzerland, numbers nine and eight respectively, and ahead of Germany at No 11.

Iceland took the top spot, with Norway and Finland coming in at second and third. Yemen was dead last.

The top 10 are:

1. Iceland
2. Norway
3. Finland
4. Sweden
5. Ireland
6. Rwanda
7. Philippines
8. Switzerland
9. Slovenia
10. NZ

Politik reports:

Documents released last week under the Official Information Act show Treasury in 2013 proposed lowering the personal tax rate and suggested replacing the lost revenue with a number of alternatives.

And Treasury says cutting corporate tax rates could mean our high level of overseas ownership would see the benefits go overseas.

“Personal income tax cuts may have greater economic benefit than corporate income tax cuts in New Zealand” the paper said.

“ This is primarily because most of the benefits of personal tax cuts would accrue to residents, whereas a larger proportion of the benefits of corporate income tax cuts ’leak’ overseas to non-residents given New Zealand’s high level of foreign capital ownership. “

And Treasury proposes a capital gains tax to replace the revenue lost from the personal tax cuts

“The resulting loss in revenue would need to be offset by base broadening such as a capital gains tax, which would address weakness in current system and reduce the tax advantage towards housing.

I agree with Treasury.

Lowering income tax rates and having a capital gains tax would be a better tax system for New Zealand that would lead to higher economic growth.

But under no circumstances should we bring in a capital gains tax, without a reduction in income tax rates. That would just be a massive new tax impost on New Zealanders.

The order paper is here.

Oral Questions 2.00 pm – 3.00 pm

1. RON MARK to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements on the flag referenda?
2. Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Health: Will he make good on the promises he made on radio yesterday to the Canterbury District Health Board that “if they need more money for mental health this year, they need to just tell me exactly what they need, because the Government is listening”?
3. ANDREW BAYLY to the Minister of Finance: What recent announcements has the Government made around its programme of Social Investment?
4. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister for Building and Housing:When the Prime Minister said first-home buyers in Auckland might have to consider an apartment in order to get on to the property ladder, did he mean that the Government supports the increased intensification now being considered by the Independent Hearings Panel?
5. JONO NAYLOR to the Minister for Social Development: What reports has she received on the number of children living in benefit-dependent households?
6. KEVIN HAGUE to the Minister of Health: What is the Government’s estimate of the likely extra cost faced by Pharmac for each of the TPP’s provisions relating to transparency processes, patent term extensions for pharmaceuticals, and data protection extension for biologics?
7. RON MARK to the Minister of Immigration: Has he had cause for concern about the effects of the current Government’s immigration policy; if so, what are the concerns?
8. PAUL FOSTER-BELL to the Minister of Tourism: What reports has he received about the growth in number of tourist guest nights?
9. Dr DAVID CLARK to the Minister of Trade: Did his predecessor Hon Tim Groser ask MFAT officials negotiating the TPP agreement to preserve the right for a future New Zealand Government to ban the purchase of residential land by non-resident foreign speculators?
10. SCOTT SIMPSON to the Minister for Primary Industries: What recent reports has he received on growth in seafood exports?
11. Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE to the Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment: Does he have full confidence in the Tertiary Education Commission’s oversight of tertiary education funding?
12. MARAMA DAVIDSON to the Minister for Climate Change Issues: When she said this week at the Pacific climate change conference that “Pacific voices are heard loud and clear at the negotiating table, and there are some things that we hold different views on”, what were the specific points of difference that she was referring to?

National: Four questions on social investment, benefit levels, tourism and seafood exports

Labour: Four questions on Canterbury DHB funding, house affordability, TPP and tertiary education

Greens: Two questions on TPP and climate change

NZ First: Two questions on flag referenda and immigration

Government Bills 3.00 pm to 6.00 pm

Home and Community Support (Payment for Travel Between Clients) Settlement Bill – third reading

This Bill implements a settlement between the Crown, District Health Boards, providers of home and community-based care and support services, and certain unions on behalf of home and community-based care and support employees.

• Introduced September 2015
• 1st reading: October 2015, passed unanimously
• SC report: December 2015, supported with amendments without dissent
• 2nd reading: February 2016, passed unanimously
• Committee of the Whole: February 2016, passed unanimously

The third reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours.

Social Housing Reform (Transaction Mandate Bill) – third reading

This bill amends the Housing Corporation Act 1974 to provide designated Ministers with the authority to transfer Housing New Zealand Corporation properties.

• Introduced July 2015
• 1st reading: August 2015, passed 63 to 58 with Labour, Greens and NZ First opposed
• SC report: December 2015, supported with amendments unanimously
• 2nd reading: February 2016, passed 63 to 58 with Labour, Greens and NZ First opposed
• Committee of the Whole, February 2016, passed 63 to 58 with Labour, Greens and NZ First opposed

The third reading consist of 12 speeches of up to 10 minutes each, for a maximum debate of two hours.

Universities NZ reports:

New data released today by Universities New Zealand – Te Pōkai Tara shows the value of investing in a degree with a typical graduate earning around $1.6 million more over their working life than a non-graduate. …

“A typical university graduate will earn around $1.6m more over their working life than a non-graduate.  This is much higher for a medical doctor ($4m), professional engineers ($3m) and information technology graduates ($2m), but is still high for arts graduates – with an average earnings premium of around $1m to 1.3m (depending upon subject).

Now think about this. The extra income from getting a university degree is $1.6 million on average. And Labour’s policy is that those who go to university should not pay one cent towards the cost of their study, but instead all taxpayers (including the majority who did not go to university) should pay more in taxes to cover 100% of their tuition costs.

It’s an appalling policy.

Tim Blair quotes former Australian Labor leader Mark Latham:

Outside the membership of the ALP and the Greens, few Australians are interested in the politics of income redistribution.

And why should they be? After 24 years of continuous economic growth – a rising tide of national prosperity and wealth creation – the objective of government policy should be to float all boats, not to sink the biggest yachts in the flotilla in the vain hope that somehow this might help everybody else …

Well said, even if it is Latham.

Labour have suddenly discovered that technology is changing jobs and are having a two year think about this.

Sadly they’re around 35 years too late. Social Credit in 1981 were even back then talking about the impact of technology on jobs!

Stuff reports:

David Bain’s years-long fight for compensation for wrongful conviction and imprisonment reportedly faces a fresh setback.

The government has just received a new report by retired Australian judge Ian Callinan, QC, four years after it shelved another judge’s inquiry backing compensation for Bain.

The government is yet to consider the confidential report, but its key finding – that Bain does not meet the “innocent beyond reasonable doubt” threshold – has already been leaked to the New Zealand Herald.

This does not mean he will not get compensation. To summarise there are four possible conclusions that can be reached:

• Guilty beyond reasonable doubt – not available as a jury has found this not to be the case
• Guilty on balance of probabilities – will not get compensation
• Innocent on balance of probabilities – may get compensation
• Innocent beyond reasonable doubt – will get compensation

It is no big surprise that he has not been found innocent beyond reasonable doubt. There is plenty of doubt.

The big question is whether the report has found him guilty or innocent on the balance of probabilities.

My view is that if he is found innocent on balance of probabilities, he should get compensation.

Thinking further about this though, the judge would only have looked at innocent beyond reasonable doubt if he had already established innocent on the balance of probabilities. So it appears we do know the outcome – that the judge has determined that when you take all the evidence together, it is more likely Bain is innocent than guilty.

Again if this is the case, I think Bain should get compensation.  It is time for the saga to end.