No Fairfax these are not New Zealand’s riskiest industries

The headline:

ACC statistics show New Zealand’s riskiest industries

Note that headlines are not written by the journalist who wrote the story:

The data:

Top 10 industries for ACC claims in 2014

Dairy cattle farming 11,748

House construction 8,741

Sheep and beef cattle farming 7,687

Meat processing 6,081

Fabricated metal product manufacturing 4,862

Supermarket and grocery stores 4,859

Electrical services 3,540

Plumbing services 2,775

 

This data does not show risk. It primarily shows how many people work in an industry. There were four times as many claims in supermarkets as in logging. Does that mean supermarkets are riskier? Of course not.

What would be useful is adjusting for population the number of claims for each industry.

Janet Daly sums up the French attacks well

Janet Daly writes in The Telegraph:

Whatever this is, it is not a clash of civilisations. The concept of “civilisation” scarcely comes into it. Nor is it a struggle between competing sets of values, or a religious war, or a battle with an alien culture. There is no debate here – as there was in the Cold War – about how it is best for men to live: the enemy has stated explicitly that it does not revere life at all. On the contrary, it is in love with self-inflicted death, which it sees as the highest moral achievement.

This is not even war in any comprehensible sense. Where are the demands, the negotiable limits, or the intelligible objectives? It is not the modern world versus medievalism, or the secular enlightenment trying to deal with fundamentalist religion. It isn’t anything that can be encompassed in the vocabulary of coherent, systematic thought in which we are now accustomed to describe the world. This is just insanity.

There is no point now arguing about the historical or theological roots, about correct or incorrect interpretations of the Koran or even the social role of Islamic leadership. When the lucid try to impose logic on behaviour that is pathological, they will be driven into a dead end – or waste time coming to blows among themselves on matters that are no longer relevant.

She continues:

France and its attitude toward Islam are already being analysed and dissected for all they are worth. Is it the willingness of the country to become involved in action in the regions claimed by Isil that has incited this terrible vindictiveness? Or the enforced secularism of the society in which such a large Muslim minority lives in alienation from national civic norms?

Was it the French military intervention in Libya, or the banning of the burka that was responsible for this havoc? Maybe none – or all – of the above. But none of this speculation is to the point. France has the honourable and consistent foreign policy that it has. It is a proudly secular republic which made the decision to separate civil life from religious observance several centuries ago for what it believed then – and believes now – to be historically sound reasons.

And what is the alternative that is being demanded? Sharia law? The subjection of women? An end to liberal democracy? Are any of these things even within the bounds of consideration? What could be accomplished by national self-doubt or criticism at this point, when there is not even a reasonable basis for discussion with the enemy?

This is the key point. Most conflicts in the past have had a potential solution. Often it was the giving up of land. Or independence. But what is the basis for discussion with the Islamic State? There is none, short of surrender.

The indiscriminate mass murder of civilians must put an end to that. The sane people of the world – even when their ultimate objectives differ or conflict – will need to join together now to stamp out, by whatever means are necessary, a threat to all varieties of civilised life.

It’s that, or face events like this every few weeks.

Parliament 18 November 2015

The House is in urgency today debating and voting on three bills through all stages.

They are:

The House will sit from 9 am to midnight with one hour breaks at 1 pm and 6 pm. Normally there is no question time under urgency, but the Government sought leave for question time to still occur.

Each bill if fully debated will have six hours of debates for the main reading plus committee stages which I estimate could take seven hours, so the total time could be up to 23 hours. But as some are not overly controversial, it should be shorter.

The questions are:

  1. JAMES SHAW to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by all his answers to Oral Question No. 5 yesterday?
  2. ANDREW LITTLE to the Prime Minister: Does he have confidence in all of his Ministers?
  3. JONATHAN YOUNG to the Minister of Finance: What proportion of the economy is made up by the services sector, and how can the Government boost the productivity of this sector?
  4. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by all his statements?
  5. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister for Primary Industries:Does he agree with the advice of the Prime Minister in regard to dairy prices made in November last year when the average price at the global dairy auction was US$2,561 a tonne for farmers not to get too worried, and that the price would bottom out soon and start climbing again; if so, can he advise what is the latest average price at the global dairy auction?
  6. Dr JIAN YANG to the Minister of Education: What progress has been made on the Investing in Educational Success initiative?
  7. JULIE ANNE GENTER to the Minister of Transport: Does he agree with the Secretary of the Treasury that “there could very well be some merit” in evaluating and funding rail infrastructure on the same basis as state highways and other transport infrastructure?
  8. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister for Social Housing: Is she embarrassed that families are living in cars?
  9. JOANNE HAYES to the Minister of Conservation (Acting): What are the benefits of the Pike29 Great Walk, and the extension of the Paparoa National Park that takes effect today?
  10. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister for Economic Development: Does the withheld NZTE-funded report on why most of the lambs died on the taxpayer-funded farm in the Saudi desert confirm or disprove the statement by Hon Nathan Guy on 18 June 2015 that he thought the lambs could have died in a sand storm?
  11. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Deputy Prime Minister: Is he confident that the money spent on the Flag Referendum is appropriate and lawful?
  12. IAN McKELVIE to the Minister for Food Safety: What initiatives has the Government put in place to encourage the food and beverage industry to reduce the sugar content of their products?

National: Four questions on the economy, education, the Pike29 Great Walk and sugar in food

Labour: Four questions on PM having confidence in Ministers, dairy prices, families living in cars and the Saudi farm

Greens: Two questions on Minister of Finance standing by his statement and transport funding

NZ First: Two questions on Finance Minister standing by his statements and the flag referenda

The President of the Czech Senate

All these Europeans just look alike!

TVNZ reports:

“It’s all part of my global master plan to increase my sphere of influence in the world and make people believe I have so many more people under my control,” Mr Key quipped to reporters later.

Heh.

King confuses minimum and average

Stuff reports:

Shots have been fired over surgical figures, with the Health Minister accusing Labour’s Annette King of misleading Parliament by claiming Auckland DHB had raised its pain threshold for patients needing surgery. 

Auckland DHB has hit back saying it has not, and Health Minister Jonathan Coleman has accused King of deliberately “fudging the facts’. 

Misleading the house is a serious offence, which in some situations is dealt with by the privileges committee and the House has the ability to punish someone for contempt if that person is found to have deliberately misled it.

It is not clear that King deliberately misled Parliament. She may have been genuinely confused herself. But she should admit her mistake.

The allegations centred on figures tabled in the house last week, which King said showed Auckland DHB had lifted the points threshold for patients to qualify for hip and knee surgery from 50 points in 2013, to 70 points. 

But Auckland DHB has disputed their use, saying Labour’s research arm asked two different questions over the two information requests, with the 2015 request only asking for the average [Clinical Priority Assessment Criteria] score for those who had qualified. 

“This is a different question, and refers to the average acuity (severity of the condition) for patients who had received surgery for their hip or knee. We said 70.

“This is not the threshold for treatment,” a DHB spokesman said.

“The requests were for two different pieces of information which were provided. The two responses are not comparable as the request was for two different pieces of information.

One is a minimum, and one is an average. King is absolutely wrong in comparing the average in 2015 with the threshold or minimum in 2013.

Another billion demanded

The Hikoi for Homes has demanded $1 billion a year more for pubic housing.

This brings the total of extra spending demanded by politicians and lobby groups since the May Budget to $9.4 billion per year.

To fund these demands we would either have to move the top tax rate from 33% to 77% or increase GST from 15% to 24%.

And that’s just to cover six months of spending demands from the left.

I’m hoping their demands will exceed $14 billion before 12 months are up, at which stage the top tax rate would need to be 100% to fund their demands.

The 10th Great Walk

Stuff reports:

A new West Coast walk will commemorate the 29 men killed in the Pike River mine disaster.

Environment Minister Nick Smith announced plans on Sunday for the $10 million, 45-kilometre Pike29 Memorial Track from Blackball to Punakaiki, through the Paparoa National Park.

The park will be extended by 3971 hectares to include the Pike River site. Twenty-nine men died in the coal mine there following an explosion on November 19, 2010. Their bodies have not been recovered.

“[The track] has come about because of the families’ determination that some good might come out from the terrible tragedy that occurred,” Smith said.

“It will bring tourism and economic development to the West Coast, permanently protect an area of high conservation values and ensure the final resting place of the 29 miners is accessible but properly respected.”

The track will incorporate parts of the existing Croesus and Pororari River tracks and include an eight-kilometre side track to the Pike River mine, which will host an information centre and memorial. Two 20-bed huts will be built on the route. The track – New Zealand’s 10th Great Walk – is expected to be open by the end of 2018.

A Great Walk will bring tourism. I can hardly wait until it is open, as I’m working my way through the nine existing Great Walks. By March I will have done Milford, Kepler, Rakiura, Heaphy, Abel Tasman and Tongariro.

“I never met them”

Stuff reports:

Eighteen years on from the murders of Ben Smart and Olivia Hope, the man convicted of killing them has finally broken his silence. …

In three interviews conducted over three days from Christchurch’s Rolleston Prison, Watson maintained his innocence.

Of his arrest, he said, “I think it was because I had a criminal record and I was [at Furenaux Lodge] alone and I left alone.

“Basically, I was an easy target from them,” he told White, a former Marlborough Express reporter who covered the case from the beginning. “I was the easiest person that they could pick.

“I don’t know where Ben and Olivia are,” he said. “I’ve never met them, never seen them.

“They definitely never came on my boat and I definitely didn’t murder them. And they’ve basically dumped me in jail for half my lifetime, it must be coming up, for something I haven’t done.

I’m shocked. I thought he was going to confess.

Can anyone name a New Zealand murderer who has admitted they did it, unless caught in the act?

Anyway if Watson says they never came on his boat, yet DNA shows hairs from Olivia were on his boat, there seem to be only three possible explanations:

  1. The Police planted the evidence
  2. Ben and Olivia sneaked onto his boat without him knowing
  3. He’s lying

 

Auckland Council assets

The Herald reports on a report which values various assets owned by Auckland Council, and how much they could get for them.  Rather than borrow billions of dollars, they could free up capital from these assets. It’s what most rational organisations would do.

The list includes:

  • Watercare $8.5 billion
  • 5% of parks and reserves $2.3 billion
  • Airport shares $1.4 billion
  • Four golf courses $1.4 billion
  • Port shares $1.1 billion
  • Mt Eden volcanic view shafts $0.4 billion
  • Pensioner houses $0.2 billion

Increasing rates by 10% and having debt double is a political decision. There are alternatives.

Labour running deficits

Claire Trevett reports:

The Labour Party has run at a deficit for at least two years, forcing it to dip into its cash reserves and highlighting one of the problems the party faced in last year’s election.

A copy of the party’s financial report obtained by the Herald shows it recorded a $71,373 deficit in 2014 and an even larger $104,915 deficit the year before, a shortfall president Professor Nigel Haworth put down to the costs of byelections and its leadership contests.

Running a deficit in election year may not be unusual, as you tend to gather income over a three year period and spend most of it in election year. But running a $105,000 deficit in 2013 indicates a serious financial problem in Labour.

Their net assets have dropped to under $200,000 in 2014. A couple more $100,000 deficits and they’re bankrupt.

A fail for 3D

Statistics lecturer Adam Smith writes in the Herald:

3D’s 22-minute piece, entitled Cause or coincidence, focused on four unfortunate young women with crippling diseases, and two who had died. They, like thousands of other girls in NZ, have had the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, which reduces the risk of cervical cancer. The majority of the piece is taken up with Paula Penfold interviewing the girls and their families.

It was shocking and sad, in more ways than one. When asked, some of the girls and parents were convinced that the vaccine was the cause, though some weren’t. Either way, as much as we feel for them, they are not qualified to make that judgement. Regardless, Paula Penfold seemed very intent on obtaining these emotive sound bites.

The science, on the other hand, barely got a mention.

There is no credible scientific evidence for the HPV vaccine increasing the risk of these, or any other, serious diseases or sudden deaths. And there has been plenty of science. For example, in 2013, this BMJ study looked at nearly one million girls in Denmark and Sweden. If an association exists, this study, or one of the many others from around the world, would almost certainly have found it. And no, the study was not funded by drug companies (see footnotes to the BMJ article).

Even if TV3 were intent on ignoring the science, why not provide some balance by interviewing families grieving for those lost to cervical cancer? How about mentioning the thousands of non-vaccinated girls with the same diseases as those in the story?

Pretty damning.

The anti-vaccine movement are lapping up TV3’s story and posting it all over social media. People will be drawn to their fanatical websites, which present thousands of sad and scary anecdotes. Sometimes they dress these anecdotes as science by quoting numbers and making graphs. They claim that the entire global medical profession is trying to kill you for a profit. This is simply preposterous. Unfortunately, the Information Age has also provides a platform for misinformation.

Vaccines are an obvious target for the blame of frustrated and grieving families. But that doesn’t mean that a one-sided selection of even thousands of anecdotes constitutes reliable evidence. Such evidence can only be provided by well-designed scientific study.

The plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.

I urge the New Zealand public, when deciding on what to believe and whether to vaccinate your children, to place greater weight on the scientific evidence. The evidence here is quite clear, and it comes from literally over a million cases. In the face of it, a few emotive, cherry-picked anecdotes should not persuade you.

Cause or coincidence? TV3’s story barely establishes coincidence. It certainly doesn’t show correlation. The idea of cause is laughable.

If this is the quality of so-called investigative journalism on TV3, we’re better off without it and we should let it die. The sad reality is that this shoddy journalism will likely result in some avoidable cases of cervical cancer, which may lead to the same fate.

So maybe the death of 3D will be no bad thing. As a taxpayer I don’t want my taxes going on hysterical scaremongering. I’m happy to fund some public broadcasting, but not crap like this.

Parliament 17 November 2015

The order paper is here.

Oral Questions 2.00 pm – 3.00 pm

  1. NUK KORAKO to the Minister of Finance: What steps is the Government taking to support a more diverse and resilient New Zealand economy?
  2. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by all his statements?
  3. Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Health: What is the impact on patients and staff of not covering all inflationary pressures in health?
  4. Dr SHANE RETI to the Minister of Health: Can he confirm that elective orthopaedic surgical discharges have increased by 34 percent, from 18,240 in 2008 to 24,439 operations this year?
  5. JAMES SHAW to the Minister of Finance: What advice, if any, has he received from Treasury in the last 18 months on the importance for New Zealand businesses of certainty about long-term policy settings?
  6. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Finance: Does he stand by his statement that “the Government would not be chasing around the unemployment numbers, 3 months to 3 months. We take a longer-term point of view because that is the realistic one”; if so, how many quarters in a row has unemployment risen?
  7. CHRIS BISHOP to the Minister of Revenue: What progress has been made on the Government’s investment property tax reforms announced as part of Budget 2015?
  8. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Minister of Health: Does he stand by all his statements?
  9. CHRIS HIPKINS to the Minister of Education: Does she have confidence that she is receiving quality independent advice from her officials?
  10. DENISE ROCHE to the Minister for Climate Change Issues: Did New Zealand oppose Australia’s effort to try and remove the “climate change displacement coordination facility”, which would have created a body to help people escaping the effects of climate change, from the draft text of the UN climate agreement?
  11. MELISSA LEE to the Minister for Small Business: What Government resources are available to help small businesses keep themselves safe online?
  12. JACINDA ARDERN to the Minister of Justice: On what date did she or her department instruct the Parliamentary Counsel Office to begin drafting the legislation to create a supervision regime for deported offenders that will be debated today?

National: Four questions on the economy, elective surgery, property tax reforms and cybersafety

Labour: Four questions on health funding, unemployment, education advce and Australian deportees

Greens: Two questions on Treasury advice and climate change

NZ First: Two questions on Finance and Health Ministers standing by their statements

Government Bills 3.00 pm to 6.00 pm and 7.30 pm to 10.00 pm

Support for Children in Hardship Bill – committee stage continued

This Bill is an omnibus Bill introduced under Standing Order 263(a). The Bill strengthens work expectations and increases assistance for parents on a benefit and who have dependent children from 1 April 2016.

  • Introduced: May 2015
  • 1st reading: May 2015, passed 109 to 12 with NZ First opposed
  • Select Committee report: October 2015, supported by majority with amendments with minority reports from Labour, Greens and NZ First
  • 2nd reading: November 2015, passed unanimously

There is no time limit for the committee stage but it is estimated to be a four hour debate as the bill has three parts and preliminary provisions to debate. One part has been partially debated, so there are probably three to four hours remaining.

Weathertight Homes Resolution Services Amendment Bill – committee stage continued

The bill amends the Weathertight Home Resolution Services Act 2006 to remove any doubt about the validity of the criteria, deem certain claims determined as ineligible to be eligible, and to widen the definition of qualifying claimant.

  • Introduced: February 2015
  • 1st reading: March 2015, passed unanimously
  • Select Committee report: July 2015, supported unanimously with amendments
  • 2nd reading: September 2015, passed unanimously

There is no time limit for the committee stage but it is estimated to be a three hour debate as the bill has two parts and preliminary provisions to debate. One part has been debated, so there are probably one to two hours remaining.

 

 

Victoria Crone for Auckland Mayor?

Stuff reports:

Xero New Zealand managing director Victoria Crone has confirmed she is considering running for mayor of Auckland.

The career businesswoman said she had been approached to stand at next year’s election and was currently giving the matter thought.

That’s hugely exciting. I think Crone would bring great skills to the job, and I also think she could win.

As Aucklanders face average rates rises of 10% (and for some it has been much more than that, and for many years),  think they would welcome someone who isn’t a typical politician who will just put rates up further to fund their pet projects. There’s a lot of waste in the Council’s spending.

Crone is not a household name but the story of accounting software company Xero’s explosive growth is well known, and she has a high profile in business circles.

Xero is arguably our most well known and even iconic Internet start up. It has created hundreds of jobs for NZers, is beloved by the 200,000 or so users and also hugely popular with accountants.

Crone has two young daughters and competes in multisport events in her spare time.

She recently addressed the Labour Party conference about the future of work, and earlier this year wrote an opinion piece on the small business policies of both major political parties.

Crone can work across the political spectrum.

Local issues commentator and transport blogger Patrick Reynolds said if a candidate like Crone did not understand that local government was not a business “well then we’re in trouble”.

“I’m kind of bored with people who claim that we need business people running the country and our cities,” he said.

“Obviously we want it to be business-like, but it doesn’t have any of the clarity of outcome indicators like a business does, like shareholder returns.

It is not a business, but business skills can be incredibly useful in local government. First of all successful business leaders are leaders. They have to be able to work with diverse teams, and get agreement on a clear direction.

Quote of the Week

“When a new source of taxation is found it never means, in practice, that the old source is abandoned. It merely means that the politicians have two ways of milking the taxpayer where they had one before.” 

– H. L. Mencken

The quote of the week is brought to you by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. To support the Union’s campaign for lower taxes and less government waste, click here.

Five shades of Islam

One of the predictable, yet distressing, things about the Paris terror attacks is you get extreme opinions about Islam and Muslims, from both “sides”.

One the one side, you get people saying the entire Islamic religion is to blame, and all Muslims are untrustworthy, and should be deported/not allowed in etc.

On the other side you get many try to argue that Islamic terror attacks have nothing to do with Islam, and that there are no problems with Islam.

I reject both those views.

Those who argue that the West should somehow banish all Muslims, and that all adherents of Islam are potentially a problem are wrong both ethically and practically.

Ethically it is wrong to treat individuals purely as members of a religion, rather than on the basis of everything else in their lives. You only judge someone by their group characteristic in the absence of any knowledge of them as an individual.

Practically it is nuts to think that you could try and divide the world up by banishing 1.4 billion people from certain countries.

Anyway I want to go into some detail as to why you can’t lump all Muslims together, just as you can’t lump all Christians together or even all Catholics. But I also want to explore why there is a problem with Islam beyond the jihadists.

For the purposes of the post I’m going to divide Muslims into five broad categories. They’re categories created by me, so don’t argue about whether there are four or six or seven or 852. And I’m not even going to get into Sunni vs Shia and Wahhabi etc.

Broadly speaking I personally see five broad groups of Muslims. They are:

  1. Secular Muslims
  2. Moderate Muslims
  3. Devout Muslims
  4. Extreme Muslims or Islamists
  5. Jihadist Muslims

Secular Muslims

Now wait a second you say. There is no such thing as a Secular Muslim. It is a contradiction.

Well just as Israel has Atheist Jews, you do have basically secular Muslims. They’re people who culturally identify as Muslim, but don’t really practice the religion at all. It is a cultural thing, rather than a religious thing. And yes I’m aware they’re probably not considered Muslims by some of the other groups, but it is about what they identify as.

You might ask why do they identify as Muslim, if they do not really follow the religion at all. Well basically it is family. Declaring yourself not a Muslim would get your ostracized from your family.  You would have years of  arguments and stress. Also you are proud of your family and their culture, and wish to be associated with it.

Beyond the identification as Muslim, the behaviour is generally no different from others in their country and peer group. I know Muslims girls who have numerous boyfriends, hook ups, drink alcohol etc. Possibly even eat pork. And one of them I know wasn’t even sure if their family/they are Shia or Sunni.

For many years I have not believed in God, yet I still have ticked Anglican on my census form, because I grew up Anglican, was only 99.99% sure their is no God, and still have positive feelings about the Anglican Church. So I have been a sort of secular Anglican. I also have Jewish heritage, and associate with my Jewish heritage, even though I am not religiously Jewish.

I don’t know what proportion of Muslims are basically secular, but in Western countries it is quite a few.

Moderate Muslims

This is what I call the equivalent of the Easter and Christmas Catholic. They will believe in God/Allah. They will very occasionally go to a religious service. They may not necessarily wear a head scarf without fail (if female), and their religion is not the most important aspect of their lives. It is significant, but not dominant.

Again no real estimate of numbers, but in my observations more common in Asian countries than the Middle East. Not unknown also in parts of Africa.

Devout Muslims

Arguably the largest group. Their religion is a very important part of their life. They will go out of their way to adhere to religious customs, and attend mosque regularly. They do not think their religion should be the law of the land, they just want to be able to practice it themselves.

The equivalent of weekly church goers in Christian  churches.

Islamists/Extreme Muslims

These are Muslims who basically do believe their religious beliefs should not just be practiced by themselves, but should have legal force. They may support sharia law, stoning as punishment for adultery, the death penalty for apostasy, suicide bombings as justified sometimes, have favourable views of jihadist groups, support honour killings.

This group does not include jihadists, but provides the environment where they can thrive and gain support. If you support killing adulterers and apostates, then it is not surprising that it is hard to argue that however it is wrong to kill party goers in Paris. One really wants adherents of a religion to say that killing anyone (except in self defence) is always wrong – full stop.

The number of Islamists or exteme Muslims is not insignificant. In this blog post I estimate it is around 420 million or so. A minority, but a large minority – say 25%.

Jihadist Muslims

These are the ones who actively get involved in killing people who they think have offended their religion, willing fighters for Islamic State, al-Qaeda etc. Estimated (low end) numbers are:

  • Islamic State 60,000
  • al-Qaeda 20,000
  • Taliban 60,000

There’s around 100 smaller groups also. In total talking low hundreds of thousands.  As a proportion of Islam not even 0.1%, but as raw numbers scarily high.  By comparison the IRA had around 10,000 members.

So I see no good in lumping all Muslims together. It’s unhelpful, it’s offensive to them, and it only makes things worse.

However I do believe the focus should not just be on Jihadists Muslims, but also Islamists or Extreme Muslims. I’m quite happy for countries to have immigration policies that say if you think think death is an appropriate punishment for adultery or apostasy then you’re not suitable to live here. Likewise if you think your religious beliefs should be imposed on people who don’t follow your religion, the same. And that applies to extreme adherents of other religions also.

In my mind you can’t make the case that blowing civilians up is bad, but executing someone for changing their religion is acceptable.

Islam does need a reformation. That can’t be done by non Muslims. It can only be done within Islam. The bottom line needs to be that death is never justified. The problem however is that Islam has no central authority (unlike most religions) and the status of the Koran makes a reformation very difficult. However there is no other long-term solution.

So I do reject those who say Islamic State and its terrorism has nothing to do with Islam. That is a lie. It may be an extreme minority aspect of Islam, but the teachings of Mohammed clearly are a driving force for many Islamists and Jihadists.

Douglas Murray covers this well in The Spectator:

The West’s movement towards the truth is remarkably slow. We drag ourselves towards it painfully, inch by inch, after each bloody Islamist assault.

In France, Britain, Germany, America and nearly every other country in the world it remains government policy to say that any and all attacks carried out in the name of Mohammed have ‘nothing to do with Islam’. It was said by George W. Bush after 9/11, Tony Blair after 7/7 and Tony Abbott after the Sydney attack last month. It is what David Cameron said after two British extremists cut off the head of Drummer Lee Rigby in London, when ‘Jihadi John’ cut off the head of aid worker Alan Henning in the ‘Islamic State’ and when Islamic extremists attacked a Kenyan mall, separated the Muslims from the Christians and shot the latter in the head. It was what President François Hollande said after the massacre of journalists and Jews in Paris in January. And it is all that most politicians will be able to come out with again after the latest atrocities in Paris.

All these leaders are wrong. In private, they and their senior advisers often concede that they are telling a lie. The most sympathetic explanation is that they are telling a ‘noble lie’, provoked by a fear that we — the general public — are a lynch mob in waiting.

And it has become counter productive.

‘Noble’ or not, this lie is a mistake. First, because the general public do not rely on politicians for their information and can perfectly well read articles and books about Islam for themselves. Secondly, because the lie helps no one understand the threat we face. Thirdly, because it takes any heat off Muslims to deal with the bad traditions in their own religion.

Muslims in the first three categories bear no responsibility for what Jihadists do. But there does need to be a recognition that reform is needed – that their views of Islam need to become more widespread so they represent not 75% of Muslims, but 99%.

To claim that people who punish people by killing them for blaspheming Islam while shouting ‘Allah is greatest’ has ‘nothing to do with Islam’ is madness. Because the violence of the Islamists is, truthfully, only to do with Islam: the worst version of Islam, certainly, but Islam nonetheless.

Other religions have issues also, as the author notes but:

Here we land at the centre of the problem — a centre we have spent the last decade and a half trying to avoid: Islam is not a peaceful religion. No religion is, but Islam is especially not. Nor is it, as some ill-informed people say, solely a religion of war. There are many peaceful verses in the Quran which — luckily for us — the majority of Muslims live by. But it is, by no means, only a religion of peace.

You can cherry pick verses in the Quran to argue it is a religion of peace or war. What matters is the actions by its adherents.

I say this not because I hate Islam, nor do I have any special animus against Muslims, but simply because this is the verifiable truth based on the texts. Until we accept that we will never defeat the violence, we risk encouraging whole populations to take against all of Islam and abandon all those Muslims who are trying desperately to modernise, reform and de-literalise their faith.

And they are the ones we must support. Not demonise.

The world would be an infinitely safer place if the historical Mohammed had behaved more like Buddha or Jesus. …

We may all share a wish that these traditions were not there but they are and they look set to have serious consequences for us all. We might all agree that the history of Christianity has hardly been un-bloody. But is it not worth asking whether the history of Christianity would have been more bloody or less bloody if, instead of telling his followers to ‘turn the other cheek’, Jesus had called (even once) for his disciples to ‘slay’ non–believers and chop off their heads?

A point worth considering.

This is a problem with Islam — one that Muslims are going to have to work through. They could do so by a process which forces them to take their foundational texts less literally, or by an intellectually acceptable process of cherry-picking verses. Or prominent clerics could unite to declare the extremists non-Muslim.

Again the lack of a central authority makes this difficult. However political leaders in Muslim countries could lead the way. They could remove laws around executing people for apostasy or adultery as a start.

We have spent 15 years pretending things about Islam, a complex religion with competing interpretations. It is true that most Muslims live their lives peacefully. But a sizeable portion (around 15 per cent and more in most surveys) follow a far more radical version. The remainder are sitting on a religion which is, in many of its current forms, a deeply unstable component. That has always been a problem for reformist Muslims. But the results of ongoing mass immigration to the West at the same time as a worldwide return to Islamic literalism means that this is now a problem for all of us. To stand even a chance of dealing with it, we are going to have to wake up to it and acknowledge it for what it is.

The challenge is to talk about the problems within Islam, in a way which doesn’t lead to more extremism and defensiveness.

Craig not standing for leader – for now

Stuff reports:

Colin Craig will not be seeking re-election as leader of the Conservative Party he founded, saying it would be “unreasonable” while there was an open police file against his name. 

But should his legal battles be cleared before the 2017 election, he would “absolutely” seek a position on the party’s list. 

Newly-elected Conservative Party board chair Leighton Baker said the party and Craig had agreed he would not go on as leader.

But there was “no hurry” to appoint a new one, as the new board looked to settle in and rebuild its membership firs

That could suggest that they will keep the role vacant until such time as Craig is cleared, if he is cleared.

He expected his legal battles would be cleared up before the next election however, and he would seek a place on the party’s list. 

“These things are a little bit difficult to be absolute on the timeframe.

“But as soon as I reach that point I would be contacting the party and saying ‘look, I’ve got all clear, I’m happy I’ve cleared it away’ – obviously the party is going to have to be happy with that but my feeling is I’d definitely put my name back in the ring,” Craig said. 

“I mean I support the party, I’m happy to stand and I got a fair few people to vote for me.”

I have to say I find it hard to see how the Conservatives can make 5% after all the damage from the infighting. But time will tell.

Is Red Peak racist?

Rodney Hide quotes Tu Harawira:

My first preference is to stick with our present flag. My second choice was “Red Peak” – but not any more.

I didn’t know why Red Peak appealed. It just did. But thanks to Maori broadcaster Tu Harawira I now know it’s because it’s a racist flag appealing to my inner colonialist. Red Peak now disgusts me.

It came as a jolt when Harawira this week told the 24-hour Flag Summit that Red Peak symbolises “white deciding where the colours will go”.

“To me this is a symbol of the white fellas with all the colours in the corner.”

It’s true. The big white stripe has marginalised blue, red and black shapes forcing them to the margins. Who knew that Red Peak was really a racist flag! 🙂

Reddell on housing in Wellington

A great blog post by Michael Reddell who for his sins attended a consultation meeting by Wellington City Council. He writes:

Question 1 on the WCC consultation form says “Where should medium-density housing development happen in your suburb?”, which on the one hand presumes that people agree that such development should happen at all, and on the other leaves me scratching my head thinking “well, surely on any site where someone finds it worthwhile to do so”.   And then “what standards of design should the medium-density housing meet?”, and I’m thinking “whatever works best for developers and willing buyers”.   But I’m pretty sure I was the only person in the room last night thinking anything remotely along those lines. 

Alas such views will be unknown in any Council housing department.

Instead of a focus on facilitating landowner rights, consumer choice, and competition, the whole thing flow from a central planner’s identification that Island Bay is one of those places with a strong “town centre” and hence a candidate to promote medium-density dwelling.  I was trying to work out why Island Bay is identified and not, say Seatoun –  similar public transport, similar vintage houses –  and I can only conclude that it is because the latter lacks a supermarket, an anchor of the “town centre”.  It puzzles me what happens to the Council’s logic if the(small by modern standards) supermarket were to close

Maybe they’d then knock all the new houses and apartments down!

But part of the consultation is about preparing a “plan to guide development in Island Bay town centre”.  The so-called “town centre” is perhaps 15 private shops, in a higgledy-piggledy variety of styles, several of which are threatened by the Council/government earthquake-strengthening requirements.  But why do we need bureaucrats “planning” a “town centre” to “ensure coherency across different developments and help contribute to a more attractive and vibrant centre”?    At the meeting, the bureaucrats talked of checking to ensure that “we have located the town centre in  the right place” –  to which one response might be that the market already resolved that one more than 100 years ago. 

There’s a few shops down at the Esplanade end also. If over the next 20 years it becomes a seaside resort and ends up with 20 cafes and shops, then that’s great. We don’t need to plan where town centres and shops go.

Just like the IMF the other day, the Council is keen on only “high quality” housing, but why is that something for them to decide, rather than willing buyers and sellers?

Yep.

So the Council staff were bad, but they met their match in the residents.  There was a strongly negative reaction to the notion that anyone outside Island Bay should have any say on the proposed changes – forcing staff to downplay the very suggestion.  There was a great deal of concern about protecting people’s house prices (up), but no apparent sense that allowing land to be used more intensively would, all else equal, make it more valuable not less.  There was concern about what sort of socially-undesirable people might move into these new dwellings (and this is one of the more left wing suburbs around), and so many demands for controls and restrictions that –  briefly – the Council staff were forced to defend the ideas of choice and private property rights.  One person was appalled at the idea of three storey dwellings – this is a suburb surrounded by, and partly built on, high hills.

Almost funny, if not so sad.

But the pressures to do so, and the sorts of vocal clashes I witnessed last night, arise largely because Councils are reluctant to see the physical size of the city grow.  Wellington might not have much flat land –  although most people probably don’t live on flat land in Wellington anyway –  but any time I fly in or out of the place I’m reminded that it is not short of land. 

Our city has huge amounts of land, and still close to the city centre.

Bolivia’s climate change solution

You have to read the official submission of the Government of Bolivia to the climate change conference. Their 10 point plan is:

  1. Adoption of a new model of civilization in the world without consumerism, war-mongering, and mercantilism, a world without capitalism; build and consolidate a world order of Living Well that defends and promotes the integral rights of our peoples, undertaking the path of harmony with nature and respect for life.
  2. Construction of a climate system based on responsibility to Mother Earth, the culture of life and the full realization of humanity in their holistic development, humanizing the economy, surpassing the simplistic approach to decarbonization of the economy.
  3. Protection of the Rights of Mother Earth in an articulated and complementary manner to the rights of peoples to their development.
  4. Defense of universal common goods such as the seas and oceans, water, atmospheric space, as well as the technological monopoly, promoting people’s access to the common heritage.
  5. Elimination of patents on technologies and recognition of the human right to science and technology of life.
  6. Effective implementation by governments of the human right to water.
  7. Establishment of the International Court of Justice Climate and Mother Earth to enable countries to fulfill their international commitments to climate change in a context of respect for the rights of peoples and of Mother Earth.
  8. Allocate the resources of the military machinery of the imperial powers and the war-mongers to finance the activities of the peoples against climate change.
  9. Eradication of commodification of nature and carbon markets promoting business climate millionaires, which do not solve the problem of the climate crisis.
  10. Decolonize natural resources environmental colonial biased views that see the peoples of the South as forest rangers of Northern countries and communities as enemies of nature.

It sounds like a Green Party manifesto 🙂

Hat Tip: Mark Steyn

From the CIA 1944 sabotage manual

cia

I heard about these listening to the Slate Political Gabfest. This is from the 1944 CIA Manual on how to sabotage organisations.

What I loved about this is we all know people like this in organisations we belong to. They may not realise that they are saboteurs, but they are.

The gabfest participants added on a 9th one for the modern age. Schedule lots of meetings with video-conferencing in areas with poor wireless as you’ll spend half your time dealing with people dropping in and out!

Drug subsidies

Thomas Lumley blogs at Stats Chat:

There are new, very promising treatments for some cancers, which work by disabling one of the safety mechanisms in the immune system so that it can attack the tumour. These treatments have been approved in the US for melanoma and the most common type of lung cancer, and they look better than anything we’ve seen before.  The problem is the price, more than NZ$200,000.

In New Zealand, roughly 2000 people die of melanoma or lung cancer each year. At the current market prices, a course of treatment for each of them would absorb more than half of Pharmac’s budget.

It would cost $400 million a year for the one drug.

There really are people whose disease completely vanished, but only about one in sixteen. Two thirds didn’t see any response. Even for the people who have no detectable disease we can’t yet know if the benefits will last a few years or a lifetime.

Pharmac is not going to fund these treatments at anything like the current price in the current budget. That’s not a matter of debate or public pressure. It’s just not happening. It won’t add up. Conceivably, the government could decide to come up with the money to fund the treatments outside the current Pharmac budget. I don’t think that would be the best way to spend the money, but I’m glad to say this is the sort of decision I don’t get to make.

$400 million for a 1 in 16 cure rate is unlikely to occur.

Over the next few years, other companies will introduce treatments that attack the same or related immune checkpoint targets, and competition will make the price fall. At some point, it will be worthwhile for drug companies to make Pharmac an offer it can accept, as happened recently with Humira, Pharmac’s current top spend (which turns off the immune response in a somewhat similar way to how the new cancer treatments turn it on).

Five years ago, you couldn’t get these treatments if you were a billionaire. In ten years or so, I expect these or similar treatments will be effectively free to New Zealanders. At the moment, we’re in the painful transition period, where the manufacturers can afford to target only the wealthiest individuals and insurance companies.

Exactly. There is always that transition period from no one can afford it (as the average cost of a new drug approved by the FDA is $4.5 billion) to when governments can subsidise it for most people.

Incidentally Pharmac’s budget has increased 25% since 2008 – from $636 million to $795 million. In real terms that’s an 11% increase.

What will countries do to stop the terrorists?

Andrew Bolt blogs:

Many of the gestures are well meaning. Grieving is necessary. Solidarity is important.

But can I respectfully point out the following:

Lighting up buildings in red, white and blue will not stop the terrorists.

Singing La Marseillaise will not stop the terrorists.

Tweeting #IStandWithParis will not stop the terrorists.

Tweeting the Eiffel Tower peace sign will not stop the terrorists.

Saying you condemn the killings will not stop the terrorists.

Showing you stand in solidarity with Paris will not stop the terrorists.

Saying you are ”shoulder to shoulder” with Paris will not stop the terrorists.

Saying we will not be cowed by terrorism will not stop the terrorists.

Saying the terrorism is an attack on all humanity will not stop the terrorists.

Tears, candles, hymns, vigils, prayers, speeches, condolence books, hashtags, poems, meetings – none of that will stop the terrorists.

A challenge to our leaders: tell us precisely what you plan to do that really will stop the terrorists.

Spare us tears and tributes. Spare us platitudes and sentiment.  Give us plans. Action.

Tell us about reforming Islam, controlling immigration, shutting down hate-preachers and destroying the Islamic State and al Qaeda.

The rest is just flowers at a funeral. It will not stop the next one.

There is no simple answers of course, and as with any action, the unintended consequences can be significant.

But I’d start the ball rolling by saying it is time to recognise Assad as the lesser evil.

Stalin was an awful man who did much evil. But Hitler in the 1930s and 1940s was the larger threat, and it was the right decision to ally with Stalin to defeat Hitler – even if it partly resulted in decades of dictatorships for Eastern Europe.

It’s time to say Islamic State is a greater evil than any other we face today, and that the political will and resources are needed to commit to eliminating it.   You can’t defeat all Islamic terrorism – I imagine for decades to come, we will have terrorist attacks from various jihadist groups. But the Islamic State can be beaten in the sense that unlike other groups, it gains its status from holding actual territory and declaring it to be the Caliphate.

I draw people back to the globally acclaimed Atlantic article in March:

One way to un-cast the Islamic State’s spell over its adherents would be to overpower it militarily and occupy the parts of Syria and Iraq now under caliphate rule. Al‑Qaeda is ineradicable because it can survive, cockroach-like, by going underground. The Islamic State cannot. If it loses its grip on its territory in Syria and Iraq, it will cease to be a caliphate. Caliphates cannot exist as underground movements, because territorial authority is a requirement: take away its command of territory, and all those oaths of allegiance are no longer binding. Former pledges could of course continue to attack the West and behead their enemies, as freelancers. But the propaganda value of the caliphate would disappear, and with it the supposed religious duty to immigrate and serve it.

They also warn:

And yet the risks of escalation are enormous. The biggest proponent of an American invasion is the Islamic State itself. The provocative videos, in which a black-hooded executioner addresses President Obama by name, are clearly made to draw America into the fight. An invasion would be a huge propaganda victory for jihadists worldwide: irrespective of whether they have givenbaya’a to the caliph, they all believe that the United States wants to embark on a modern-day Crusade and kill Muslims. Yet another invasion and occupation would confirm that suspicion, and bolster recruitment. Add the incompetence of our previous efforts as occupiers, and we have reason for reluctance. The rise of ISIS, after all, happened only because our previous occupation created space for Zarqawi and his followers. Who knows the consequences of another botched job?

This is the problem. But I think the pendulum is tilting towards taking action. However to succeed, it has to be more than just some bombing flights. The same level of commitment and determination as the Allies had in WWII would be needed, and inevitably there would be a huge level of civilian casualties.  There could be no negotiated settlement, but like in WWII it would need to be unconditional surrender of all territory.  I imagine the death toll would be in the tens of thousands on the side of invading forces, and hundreds of thousands on the other side. So it may be that instead we’ll settle for one to two terrorist attacks a week instead.

My preference would be to not have Western troops directly fighting ISIL, as that allows them to frame it as a Crusade.  I think one needs to do a deal with Assad, and provide huge military resources to Muslim countries and leaders willing to fight Islamic State – Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey and maybe even Iran. Yes there will be some nightmares to deal with after ISIL is defeated, but just as we worked with Stalin to defeat Hitler, I think we can’t be choosy about our allies in this battle.

Capital Gains Tax for property now law

The Herald reports:

The requirement for capital gains tax to be paid on investment properties bought and sold within two years has passed into law.

The so-called ‘Bright-Line’ test for residential land was announced by the Government as part of May’s Budget to try to dampen property speculation and better enforce already existing taxes on capital gains. It will require tax to be paid on any gains from residential property bought after October 1 and sold within two years. The exceptions to the rule are the owner’s main home, an inherited property or the transfer of property after a relationship break up.

Revenue Minister Todd McClay said it was an important tool to ensure property speculators paid their fair share of tax. Where properties are sold on after that two year period, the pre-existing law will continue to apply. That means if a property was bought for the intention of making a profit, income tax must be paid on the gain when it is sold.

It will be interesting to see if this has much impact on the property market. Combined with the Reserve Bank new rules, and the requirement for overseas purchasers to have a NZ IRD number, and there could be a reasonable impact.

I actually do support a Capital Gains Tax, but only under these circumstances:

  • Personal income tax rates and company tax rates must be dropped so that overall tax revenue remains the same (or reduces)
  • It must be comprehensive with almost no exceptions, so our tax system remains relatively simple and it doesn’t then provide incentives or disincentives for particular forms of investment.

A comprehensive capital gains tax is estimated to bring in $9.1 billion a year. This would allow us to do the following:

  • Drop bottom tax rate from 10.5% to 5% for income up to $14,000
  • Drop second rate from 17.5% to 10% for income from $14,000 to $48,000
  • Drop the two top tax rates from 33% and 28% to 25% for income over $48,000
  • Drop company tax rate from 28% to 25%

That would cost $8.8 billion.

So we’d have a tax system where you pay 5% and 10% for those earning below the average wage and then 25% for earnings over that – still pretty progressive.

So a broad base low rate tax system is good. But bringing in new taxes, without lowering other taxes should be resisted strongly.