Curia’s monthly polling newsletter is out. The summary is:

There was one political poll in March – a Roy Morgan.

The average of the public polls has National 16% ahead of Labour in March, down 2% from February. The current seat projection is centre-right 59 seats, centre-left 52 which would see the centre parties hold the balance of power.

In Australia Abbott’s approval rating improves this month, but is still strongly negative.

In the United States Obama’s approval rating continues to improve, especially on the economy and health care. Country direction remains strongly negative. Scott Walker shoots up to 2^nd place in the polls for the Republican nomination.

In the UK the election is too close to call. You need 326 seats to govern. Current predictions have the anti-Conservative forces for Labour, SNP and Greens on 322. Labour would need both the SNP and Liberal Democrats to govern while the Conservatives would need the Lib Dems, UKIP and most of the Northern Ireland seats.

In Canada the Conservatives remain ahead of the Liberals in terms of projected seats, but Harper has declining approval ratings.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Northland and foreign drivers plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

The NZ dollar got to 99.8 vs the Australian dollar yesterday. Parity may not be far off. Even in the days before we floated the dollar, we were not at parity. The Reserve Bank data goes back to 1973 when we almost made parity. Since 1993 we’ve been at least 75 cents but never over 95 cents until recent months.

As I’m currently in Australia, it’s great basically not having to convert prices.

The Herald reports:

New, harsher penalties for making, trading or possessing child abuse imagery have been passed into law with unanimous support.

The legislation increased the maximum jail term for possessing, importing or exporting objectionable publications from five years to 10 years.

It clarified that possession included viewing the objectionable material, not just downloading or saving it.

The maximum penalty for supplying, distributing or making an objectionable publication increased from 10 to 14 years’ jail time.

It introduced a new offence of “indecent communication with a young person”, which applied to any communication with a person under 16 years old including text message and online contact.

The bill passed without dissent, but an interesting comment:

Greens also backed the changes, though MP Catherine Delahunty said harsher sentences would not solve the deeply rooted social problems which led to child exploitation.

“We have to ask ourselves in what way do our infrastructures, social structures, and businesses collude with the predators, rather than just saying: “Lock up the predator, throw away the key, block them from the internet, everything will be fine.'”

A serious question to the Green Party. How exactly do businesses collude with child sex offenders?

The Herald reports:

A new website allows consumers to predict the cost of a taxi fare, accurate to within about $4.

The site, taxifares.co.nz, estimates the cost of a journey between two points on a map, across a range of taxi companies, in five New Zealand cities – Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin.

A Herald test found that fare estimates provided by the site were between $3.35 less and $2.81 more than actual fare costs in Hamilton and Auckland.

As wait times can’t be predicted, it’s suggested the website will underestimate fares by $3 to $8.

Auckland traffic was flowing well at the time of the test, with slight congestion on Customs St and Symonds St.

The Herald used companies Discount Taxis (ranked as one of the cheapest on taxifares.co.nz), Auckland Co-op Taxis (ranked as a middle-price) and Sail Taxis (ranked as one of the more expensive).

All estimates by the website were between 86c less and $2.81 more than the actual fare cost. In Auckland, 31 companies are ranked from cheapest to most expensive. Uber estimates are not included.

I’ve wanted a site like this for ages. While I mainly use Uber now, it is good to be able to see the price differences by firm.

A taxi from my home to the airport (a 20 minute drive, including five minutes of stopping) would be:

1. Kiwi Cabs $34.68
2. Green Cabs $34.69
3. Wgtn Combined $38.77
4. Harbour City $42.06
5. Wellington Star $44.86
6. Capital Cabs $45.51

I always use Combined, so good to see they are relatively well prices. I wonder what Corporate Cabs would cost?

Partisans on both sides of politics often make sweeping claims about the media. Some on the left have claimed that the NZ Herald is relentlessly pro-National and that (for example) John Armstrong is a cheerleader for the Government. Others think the opposite.

For some time I’ve wanted to try and collate data on the media, to try and ascertain where the opinion of certain editorials and columnists tends to end up, and for the last five months have been doing so. The data below is imperfect,but it is also new – in that we’ve never seen before a comprehensive analysis of the opinion columns of major newspapers and their columnists.

Some notes on the data:

• It covers five months – from 1 November 2014 to 31 March 2015. It will continue to be published every six months here-after, to see what changes over time – if anything.
• It only covers “opinion” columns and editorials. It does not cover news stories. It is designed to shed light on what the newspaper or journalist/columnist thinks – rather than what the story is. Of course it is influenced by the stories of the moment.
• Data is collated from the NZ Herald and Stuff websites every morning, checking the main pages, news pages, politics pages and opinion pages. It is possible some columns and editorials have been missed if they were not on the websites until later in a day. However if seen on subsequent days they are added to the table.
• Where a journalist or columnist has done fewer than three columns that reference the Government or political parties, they are not included in the five month summary below, but they may be included in summaries over longer time periods.
• An editorial or column is assessed against whether someone reading it will feel more positive or more negative about the Government/National, Labour, Greens or NZ First.
• If an editorial or column is not on a political issue, or just talks about an issue in a way that is neither supportive nor critical of a party, then they are not included. This is just an analysis of columns and editorials that are positive or negatuve for a political party or the Government.
• This is not an analysis of media bias. This is an analysis of opinion. It is quite legitimate for columnists and editorials to have views that are not split 50/50 between the parties. And it is fair to say one would generally expect an incumbent Government to be criticised more often than it is supported.
• What may be interesting is the relative difference in tones between different columnists and editorials, and also as this gets repeated in six months, what differences over time there are.

Turing first to the editorials of the three metro newspapers (only they were included), the Dominion Post is the most relentlessly critical of National. Of 24 editorials referencing the Government or National, 22 are critical and only 2 supportive, so 92% negative.

The Herald is close with 79% negative and 21% positive. Hard to see how some people claim it is a pro-National newspaper.

The Press has had only six editorials about the Government or National – four positive and two negatve.

Turning to the columnists, the one who has written the most critical of National is Dita de Boni with eight negative and no positives. Andrea Vance is next with 7-0 and then Tracy Watkins, Brian Rudman, Peter Lyons and Duncan Garner.

Of those with a mixture of positive and negative, John Armstrong is 84% negative, Rodney Hide 80%, Vernon Small 80%, John Roughan 67% and Fran O’Sullivan 64%. Of interest is there is no columnist in the Herald or on Stuff that is 50/50 or mainly positive about the Government.

Combining columns and editorials, the Herald website is 81% negative and 19% positive in its opinion, while Stuff is 85% negative and 15% positive.

Fewer columns and editorials on Labour. The Herald editorial has been 60% positive and 40% negative on Labour while the Dominion Post 25% positive and 75% negative.

The most supportive columnists have been Fran O’Sullivan (100%), John Armstrong (80%) and Audrey Young (67%), while Vernon Small has been 43% positive and 57% negative.

Overall in the NZ Herald the editorials and columns have been 74% positive for Labour and 26% negative. For Stuff it has been 33% positive and 67% negative.

Data has been collected on Greens and NZ First mentions, but not yet enough to publish. Hopefully in six months.

Note again this is not a study of bias, but of opinion. It is also only a five month snapshot. Just because (for example) Fran O’Sullivan wrote three columns positive towards Labour and none negative in this time period, doesn’t mean the same will apply for other time periods. This is why the study will be on-going.

It’s too early for conclusions, but some interesting observations are that the data doesn’t back up some common beliefs.  It is no surprise that Dita de Boni is relentlessly critical of the Government, but somewhat surprising how critical John Armstrong has been.

The assertion that the Herald is pro-National is not supported by their own editorials. The Dominion Post used to be seen as having a centre-right editorial line, but in the last year or so has been a profoundly centre-left editorial line. I understand Anthony Hubbard is now the editorial writer, which would explain the dramatic shift.

Some on the right say Vernon Small is very pro-Labour. Well he writes the most about them, but seems to be the most balanced about them.

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.”

– Thomas Sowell

The quote of the week is brought to you by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. To support the Union’s campaign for lower taxes and less government waste, click here.

The Herald reports:

New Zealanders are set to enjoy 10-year passports once again – but at a price.

It is understood the Cabinet will decide in the next few weeks to extend the passport validity period, which was reduced to five years in 2005.

This will require an amendment to the Passports Act, and is likely to lead to higher fees for renewing a passport.

Prime Minister John Key said officials wanted the validity period to remain at five years. But he hinted that the Government would go against their advice and revert to 10-year passports.

Good. This is why we don’t just have officials determine things. 5 year passports make things easier for officials, but a major hassle for travellers.

Mr Key has previously warned that a return to 10- year passports is likely to lead to higher fees because revenue from processing the documents will fall. At present, it costs $135 to renew a passport. Analysis by the Taxpayers’ Union showed that fee was more expensive than nearly every other comparable country.

They should be done on a cost recovery basis. It is worth noting that there is a growing surplus in the passport fund at the moment.

Stuff reports:

The Government refuses to say whether a High Court judge declared her husband’s convictions for manslaughter before she was appointed.

As she was made the Judge, not her husband, why would she?

Justice Rachel Dunningham’s husband, Andy Nicholson, was convicted of three counts of manslaughter in 1991.

In 1989, Nicholson, then chief flying instructor at Manawatu Aero Club, was taking a training flight near the Manawatu Gorge on 30 July 1989 when his Tomahawk aircraft collided with another plane while attempting a flying formation.

According to the official report into the accident, Nicholson had been simulating a dogfight at the time of the crash.

A tragic accident, for which he was charged and convicted of manslaughter.

Justice Dunningham only got her law degree in 1996. To suggest that something her husband did seven years before she even got a law degree should affect whether or not she could become a Judge is silly.

Shadow attorney-general David Parker said the conviction would not necessarily have to be declared as it would not affect her ability to do her job.

Good on David Parker for saying this.

Stuff reports:

Missing schoolboy Mike Zhao-Beckenridge was desperate to return to live with his stepfather, according to John Beckenridge’s closest friend.

“The boy kept ringing him up . . . [asking for Beckenridge] to come and pick me up,” said Roger Henricson, a Swedish airline pilot who has been friends with Beckenridge for 40 years.

Beckenridge was upset after he lost custody of Mike, 11, said Henricson. “He got quite down about it because he thought he was doing the right thing because, the little boy Mike, John has been a father to him for the last seven to eight years and he got quite attached to him.”

That may be the case, but that does not give him a right to kidnap the kid from his mother. It doesn’t matter what the 11 year old wants – they get input into the custody decision, but the adults have to deice to abide by it.

Mike and his stepfather have been missing for 23 days. The car in which they were believed to be travelling has been found in the sea at the bottom of an 88-metre cliff in the Catlins area. Police have been unable to ascertain whether there are bodies in the car, though divers indicated they could see none.

Hopefully they’ll be found.

After Beckenridge and his wife split up, Mike stayed with his stepfather. Mike’s mother indicated she was going to send the boy to China to live with his biological father or his grandparents.

If he has some parenting rights over Mike, then she can’t decide that unilaterally.

Fortune reports:

Here’s an approach to charter schools that should seem obvious—to those on both sides of the acrimonious debate on the future of charters in public education.

In places where charter schools are not achieving results, they should be suspended or at least curtailed until whatever isn’t working can be fixed.

And in cities where charters are making striking gains compared to traditional public schools, enrollment opportunities should be expanded, so that more kids can take advantage of them.

Absolutely. Close down the failing ones, and expand the successful ones.

The Center for Research on Education Outcomes(CREDO), at Stanford University, has done that in a new study, and it turns out that charters, in general, are strongest exactly where the need is greatest—in urban areas. In some cities, such as Boston, students are achieving six times the growth in math knowledge as are their traditional school counterparts; in reading, four times as much.

And in NZ the parties of the left are dedicating to closing charter schools down.

CREDO’s new study took an unusual tack. It studied students in multiple areas of the country—and exclusively studied urban areas. Three points emerged. When suburban charters were excluded, the smaller average gains registered in previous studies were suddenly magnified. In other words, charters seem to be remedying a particular defect of schools in the most challenged areas. Second, within those schools, gains were greatest among students—those in poverty, African-Americans, Hispanics, English-as-a-second-language (ESL) students—whose performance typically lags. Disadvantaged students gain the equivalent of months (or more) of extra learning for every year in a charter school.

So we may not need charter schools in Epsom, but we do in South Auckland.

Amy Adams announced:

Latest international figures on broadband speeds have reported New Zealand’s average connection speeds have increased by almost 60 per cent in the past year, said Communications Minister Amy Adams.

The Akamai State of the Internet report found that New Zealand’s average peak connection speed rose to 34.3 Mbps in the December 2014 quarter, representing a 59 per cent annual improvement – the highest increase in the Asia Pacific region.

The report also found that the average broadband connection speed rose to 7.3 Mbps (from 7.0 Mbps in the previous quarter) – representing a 39 per cent year on year increase.

The report is here. Good to see us increasing but still a long way to go – our average speed of 7.3 is 43rd in the world.

The Washington Post reports:

The police officer had just finished an earnest presentation on counter-extremism before an audience of 200 restless teenagers at an East London high school when a young man of Pakistani origin in a black hoodie took the stage.

“How many of you people are Muslim?” the man barked.

He grinned as nearly every hand went up.

“Guys, we can take over! Sharia law coming soon!” the man cried gleefully. “Allahu Akbar!”

The teens erupted in laughter even before the man had a chance to clarify: “I’m kidding. I’m kidding. I think I scared the white people.”

It’s the kind of knowing humor that has made 29-year-old Humza Arshad an Internet sensation, a hero to Muslim teenagers and perhaps the most potent new weapon in Britain’s arsenal as it wages an increasingly desperate campaign to counter violent Islamist extremism.

At a time when the flow of British Muslims to the war in Syria shows no sign of ebbing, Arshad has positioned himself as the anti-Jihadi John. Like Mohammed Emwazi, the scowling Islamic State executioner, Arshad is a London-raised Muslim from an immigrant family whose face has become instantly recognizable to millions of young Brits through videos uploaded online.

We need more people like this.

But where Emwazi seeks to terrify the world and seduce fresh recruits to join his bloodthirsty crusade, Arshad’s message is precisely the opposite: Laugh at extremism; don’t fall prey to it.

Great message.

In his “Diary of a Bad Man” series, Arshad plays a wannabe gangster who gets beaten up by girls, peed on by a fox and endlessly ridiculed by his mother. But he also manages to save his cousin from a descent into radicalism, and uses lessons from the Koran to urge others to steer away from violence.

This spring, Arshad has taken his message directly to students through an unusual partnership with Scotland Yard in which the police sponsor him to tell jokes at London-area high schools. The program has been a hit, with schools across the city vying for his time and officials planning to take the program nationwide.

Probably more effective than several dozen community engagement panels.

Amy Adams announced:

Almost 70 per cent of family disputes referred to mediation involving children are being settled out of court a year on from the Government’s family justice reforms says Justice Minister Amy Adams.

The reforms, which have been in effect for a year tomorrow, place out-of-court community-based resolution services at the heart of the system to resolve family disputes about the care of children.

Much better than forcing parents to rush to court.

“FDR is proving highly successful, of the 905 disputes referred to FDR in the last year, 68 per cent of mediations resolved all matters, and a further 18 per cent resolved some matters. 

“Almost seven out of ten disputes referred to mediation are being resolved without having to go to court which is reducing the inevitable stress children and families face when their parents separate.  It also means the Family Court can now focus on the most difficult cases, especially those involving family violence, that require judicial expertise,” says Ms Adams.

A win-win.

Stuff reports:

Seeing a doctor is becoming a luxury item as housing costs take a toll on family budgets, Christchurch social agencies say.

“We have a number of families who don’t even take their children to the GP until they get really sick and often that’s because they’ve got debts and doctors sometimes won’t see a family until they have cleared previous debts,” Christchurch Methodist Mission executive director Jill Hawkey said.

I don’t know of any GP that will refuse to see a child because the family owe them money. They may ask the parents to arrange to pay their debts, but they won’t refuse to see a child.

One family with an outstanding bill of $30 were threatened by debt collectors with fees in excess of $1000 unless they paid up, she said.

That sounds preposterous, and I doubt it.

Nine practices in Canterbury operate under the Government’s Very Low Cost Access (VLCA) scheme and 298 Youth Health Services provides free GP visits for 10-24-year-olds.

It is worth remembering that taxpayers not subsidise free GP visits for children up to the age of 13.

This story is based on anecdotes and claims by an NGO. It would be a better story if it referenced actual data, such as the annual NZ Health Survey by the Ministry of Health. The latest survey finds:

• children who did not visit a GP due to cost in the last year decreased from 6.3% to 5.2%
• children who did not visit an after hours service due to cost decreased from 4.5% to 3.6%

I’m not saying there shouldn’t be an article on the claims that some families can’t afford primary healthcare. What I’m saying is that the article just repeated claims that had no substance, and didn’t seek out any data that contradicts that.

The BBC reports:

Documents released by the American whistle-blower Edward Snowden claim that Britain spied for several years on the Argentine government.

Oh my God. Who would have thought it. The UK Government spies on a country that launched an invasion of one of its territories, and regularly threatens to do the same again.

Mr Snowden says British agents were actively spying on Argentina between 2006 and 2011.

I would hope they have been spying on Argentina continuously since 1982.

The former CIA worker, who now lives in Russia, has previously leaked sensitive information about US surveillance programmes.

I’m waiting for his expose of Russia’s spying.

Tim Blair reports:

In tiny Walkerton, Indiana – population 2144 – a local pizza shop recently became a target of national hatred:

When asked by local press the hypothetical question of whether or not they’d prefer to have their family owned business, Memories Pizza, cater a gay wedding, the owner said no citing their own religious beliefs as the reason.

Rather than allowing this family to simply have their opinion, which they were asked to give, outraged people grabbed the torches and began a campaign to destroy this small business in small town Indiana.

All for having an opinion that is rooted in faith.

No one was turned away. No one was discriminated against. It was a hypothetical question asked by a news reporter who had questionable motives to begin with.

The hatred and threats were so intense that the pizza shop shut down and the proprietors went into hiding.

The pizza shop said they would serve gay people, just that they wouldn’t want to cater for a gay wedding. They’re entitled to their view, just as people are also entitled to say they’d rather not frequent there.

But people are not entitled to threaten them and talk of burning their shop down. That is the true intolerance.

But it doesn’t end there, and has what I consider a good ending:

Texan journalist Lawrence Jones launched a funding drive for the shop, with the modest initial aim of raising $25,000. Let’s see how that campaign is going:

It has now raised $778,321!! What better way to strike back against intolerance.

Of course threats are now being made against Lawrence Jones, but I think there is a lesson learnt here – you can express disagreement with the policy of a store, and even express a desire to not patronise them. But if you unleash a hate campaign against a small business, well it may backfire – at it has in this case.

Today is Easter, sometimes called Resurrection Sunday, which celebrates the Christian belief in the resurrection of Jesus Christ.

In Western Christianity it falls between 22 March and 25 April inclusive, within a week of the full moon.

Have a relaxing Easter.

Steve Braunias writes in the NZ Herald:

Maybe it was absolutely correct but I think the verdict was a gross injustice. I don’t think he did it.

Always interesting to hear from someone who sat through the entire trial.

But it’s more that I just can’t accept that Lundy behaved as if nothing had happened after killing his adored and precious daughter. …

The guilty verdict means we have to believe that he killed her because she walked in on her father murdering her mother.

“Nah,” said his lawyer, David Hislop QC, when I spoke with him two days before the verdict. “He’s too weak. Doesn’t have the balls.”

If one accepts that he never intended to kill Amber, it would have been an awful decision on what to do when she walked in. Do you kill your daughter or go to jail for killing your wife? Did he not think of the possibility she would walk in? What if he had worn a balaclava?

I think we all struggle with the thought that a man can kill his daughter. We understand that people sometimes kill their partners, but not their children.

However also hard to think why anyone else would have killed Amber, if it was a burglary gone wrong?

The article by Braunias is interesting. He spent a day a week over the summer with Lundy.

But a different view from another journalist, as reported by Stuff:

Fourteen years ago, Mark Lundy invited a journalist and photographer into his home for his only interview. His wife and daughter had been hacked to death just three months earlier and, unknown to the public, Lundy was the prime suspect. But as Ben Heather reports, even then Lundy seemed a bad actor.

Photographer Kevin Stent knocked on Mark Lundy’s front door and heard a scuttling inside.

After days of back and forth, Lundy finally agreed the previous day to be interviewed, and Stent had returned to take a photograph earlier that morning – but now it appeared he was backing out.

Eliciting no response, Stent walked around the house to find Lundy in the backyard. His hands were clasped together against his face in prayer and he was mumbling to himself, seemingly oblivious to Stent’s presence even as the camera clicked.

“But I just felt like he was doing it for me. Like it was completely contrived,” Stent recalls 14 years later.

Maybe he got to be a better actor over the last 14 years?

After praying, Lundy invited Stent inside and the theatrics continued as they spent several hours together. Stent says at one point Lundy suddenly lay on the ground in a “dead ant” pose with his legs and arms in the air, wailing. Later he walked into a closet, closed the door and screamed.

Seems incredibly contrived.

During that interview in 2000, Lundy told Johns how, since his wife’s death, he would go to the cemetery with a bottle of her favourite wine: Alpha Domus sauvignon blanc. He would sit at the grave and pour two glasses, taking a sip from each one. Amber was not left out. He took some fizzy drink for her. “And while I was out there, a woman put her hand on my shoulder and said, ‘Mark, the whole of Palmerston North is with you’.”

He barely left the home for the guilt since his family had left, he claimed.

But, at his first trial, the juries heard a very different story. It was revealed that, far from being a recluse, Lundy was planning a second 21st birthday and was regularly seen drunk at social events after murdering his family. Six weeks after their death, he even found time for the services of a prostitute.

While I respect Steve Braunias sat through the trial, I have to say I think the jury got it right.

The Herald reports:

At least 147 people have been killed and 79 wounded after al-Shabaab gunmen stormed a university in Kenya this morning, opened fire on dormitories, released Muslim students, and took Christians hostage. …

As the siege neared its end earlier, Nkaisser said around 300 students remain unaccounted for, and told reporters that officials knew the whereabouts of approximately 500 out of 815 students. The disaster centre said plans are underway to evacuate those still in the building.

That’s around one in six dead and one in four dead or wounded. A terrible massacre.

I was in Kenya in January. Of all the countries I have been to (including Egypt,Iran, Vietnam) it is the one I felt least safe in.

One student who witnessed the attack said he could hear militants opening doors and asking those hiding inside if they were Muslim or Christian. “If you were a Christian you were shot on the spot,” he said.

You know if anyone with a gun ever asked me that question, my response would be Allahu Akbar.

Herald politics quiz is here. 9/10 in 35 seconds.