Stuff reports:

A third of New Zealand pedestrians killed on the roads in the five years to 2013 were drunk, a new report says.

Ministry of Transport data on pedestrian crashes with vehicles between 2009 and 2013 showed the leading cause of pedestrian-fault crashes was “visible intoxication”, followed by “crossing heedless of traffic”.

In 49 fatalities the pedestrian was intoxicated, representing 30 per cent of all pedestrian fatalities.

How long until the Government makes it an offence to walk and be over a certain alcohol limit?

Meg Christie, convener of pedestrian advocacy group Living Streets Otautahi, said new liquor laws, including the drink driving limit falling from 400 micrograms of alcohol per litre of breath to 250mcg, meant “vulnerable” people were walking.

“People are leaving the car at home, which is great, but means they are travelling in a vulnerable state to the bus stop or on the way home,” she said.

I guess drunk walking only endangers themselves, unlike drunk driving which endangers others.

A year or so ago I got a complimentary copy of Andrew Geddis’ Electoral Law in New Zealand to review. I read most of it during a tramp in the Milford Sound!

If you are an electoral or political geek, the book is a must have. It deals very comprehensively with all aspects of our electoral system, from obscure electoral petitions to the operation of MMP. Even though it costs a lot of money, I’d purchase a copy if I hadn’t got one for free. I’ve used it to check things out half a dozen times already.

I don’t agree with all of Andrew’s views on matters electoral, but he distinguishes well between the law and his opinion.

No doubt the next edition of the book will be updated to include the Arthur Taylor electoral petition. Andrew has blogged here that it is doomed to fail, but it may result in some interesting opinions from the court.

The Herald reports:

The Prince of Wales’ preparations for an activist monarchy have prompted a backlash, as a new book revealed a dysfunctional and divided court around him.

Someone who has worked closely with him said: “He is dying to have his go with the train set. He does cause concern with his outbursts. He’ll struggle to restrain himself.”

The book, Charles, The Heart of a King, by Catherine Mayer, claims he is a tortured individual who endures moments of “extreme despondency” and feels guilty about his privileged upbringing. …

The Supreme Court is expected to rule this month on whether his “black spider” letters to ministers should be published. But some observers are concerned he is pushing for a more active role in national life even before he succeeds to the throne. Someone with close links to the Palace said: “It is no accident that he writes all those letters to ministers. He does see himself as a kind of saviour of the nation, someone who can mend the broken country. Some might see that as presumptuously messianic.” …

He is also understood to support the case for proportional representation in Westminster elections and he opposes the Human Rights Act. Whether he would keep his counsel on such issues is debatable at best.

Our future King of New Zealand – a messianic zealot with a saviour complex. And we don’t even get a choice as to our next head of state as we have a system where the UK decides effectively decides it for us.

Let’s just have a Governor-General appointed by Parliament for a five year term.

Alexander Bisley interviews Jon Stewart:

IT’S SLIGHTLY SURREAL interviewing Jon Stewart, The Daily Show interviewer. His debut film Rosewater tells the story of Maziar Bahari (played by Gael García Bernal), imprisoned in solitary confinement for 107 days in Iran in 2009 after appearing on Stewart’s satirical news programme.

Bahari was detained for 118 days and tortured merely because he did a satirical interview on The Daily Show. The name of the fim refers to the smell of his integrator. Bahari was usually blindfolded when tortured and interrogated.

Stewart’s original idea was a film in Farsi, with an all Persian cast. “Maziar was the one who said, ‘I really don’t want to do that. I want it to be in English, and I want it to be as universal as it can possibly be, because these are issues that need to be seen as universal issues and need to be placed in as wide a context as we can place it.’

In a way a pity they couldn’t do a version in Farsi, for Iran.

3 News had a poll last night. Details are at Curiablog.  National and Labour up and Greens and Conservatives down. On the poll National could govern alone.

National’s lead over Labour is 21%. By comparison in the same poll in 2006 (Labour’s third term), their lead over National was just 6%.

I hear on the grapevine that National will select its candidate for the Northland by-election on Saturday 28 February. This means that the by-election will be on Saturday 21 or 28 March as it must be held 20 to 27 days after nominations day.

The reason that the candidate selection will take a while is that unlike parties where the head office basically makes the selection, this will require aspiring candidates to travel around the entire Northland electorate which stretches from Wellsford to Cape Reinga, a 350 km distance.

I understand National currently has close to 1,400 financial members in Northland. This means that there will be around 140 delegates making the selection. Most aspiring candidates will try and meet every delegate one on one.

The strong membership base will help with the campaign. You need a big campaign team to cover so much area.

Quite a few people already expressing interest in the nomination. It should be a well contested candidacy.

Rodney Hide writes:

The David Cunliffe experiment of tacking left is over. …

Little’s speech was more interesting by far.

He’s new and his speech was an opportunity to learn where he’s directing Labour and, potentially, the country.

And here’s the money quote: “As a union leader I was always conscious that wealth had to be created first before it could be shared. We need to do what’s right for business so we can do what’s right for workers and their families and to keep skills in New Zealand.”

Little recognises the need to create wealth before it can be spent.

And he acknowledges that business creates wealth – and, by implication, not Government. That’s a big statement from a Labour leader.

He told us how as union leader he helped business to help workers and their families.

He’s not a “worker-versus-business” guy. He worked with Fonterra to achieve productivity gains and so boost the pay to workers and farmers.

The bit about farmers is important. He understands the economy is interconnected and farmers are part of his economic equation.

It’s all good news.

Little has outlined his vision and direction. His challenge now is to deliver policy that convinces middle voters he will deliver.

The rhetoric and direction sound promising indeed, as a more moderate rational Labour Party. The test will be whether they devise policy to match, or will be talk without the walk?

The Herald reports:

Lydia Ko is the number one golfer in the world after finishing second in her opening tournament of the year today.

The 17-year old missed a chance to win the Coates Golf Championship in Florida today after a double bogey on the 17th hole – handing the tournament to South Korea’s Na Yeon Choi.

However second place was enough for Ko to become the youngest golfer ever -male of female – to be ranked number one in the world.

It’s an incredible achievements when any Kiwi makes No 1 in the world in a globally competitive sport. By that I don’t mean rugby, netball, etc but the sports where every major country competes seriously such as tennis, golf, football, athletics, cycling and swimming.

So making No 1 for golf is an amazing achievement. Doing it at age 17 is just even more staggering. A huge achievement that so many Kiwis are proud of her for accomplishing.

When Campbell Newman won Queensland in 2012 with a 62% share of the two party preferred vote and 78 seats to 7 for Labor, the only question was whether they would do two or three terms, or more. The thought of Labor winning in 2015 from a base of seven seats was unthinkable.

Yet they are on the brink of doing that. Campbell Newman has lost his seat and Labor have 42 seats to 40 for LNP. You need 45 to govern and three are undecided so Labor just needs two out of three to govern.

Newman’s government pursued hardline policies that alienated Queenslanders. They failed to carry the people with them. What happened in Queensland is what would have happened in NZ if the Key Government had used the financial crisis to break its promises and slash spending (as opposed to restrain it’s growth). You get a one term Government that doesn’t get to have any enduring policy legacy.

The result was mainly a referendum on the Newman Government, but Abbott’s unpopularity would not have helped. He did not campaign there at all. This result increases the pressure on his caucus to make a change unless they also want to be a one term Government. Malcolm Turnbull is very popular with the public, and if the caucus chose him (which is unlikely) they would have a better than even chance of surviving.

Abbott has a major media speech to the Press Club on Monday. We should see after that speech what is likely to happen.

The ND-Gain Index summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience.

NZ is ranked second overall, after Norway. We are the 5th least vulnerable country and the 4th most ready country.

We have a minuscule ability to affect the total level of emissions, but a considerable ability to affect how our country is prepared for global warming. It is good to see we are well placed.

An interesting paper at SSRN. The summary:

Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century has been widely debated on theoretical grounds, yet continues to attract acclaim for its historically-infused data analysis. In this study we conduct a closer scrutiny of Piketty’s empirics than has appeared thus far, focusing upon his treatment of the United States. We find evidence of pervasive errors of historical fact, opaque methodological choices, and the cherry-picking of sources to construct favorable patterns from ambiguous data. Additional evidence suggests that Piketty used a highly distortive data assumption from the Soviet Union to accentuate one of his main historical claims about global “capitalism” in the 20th century. Taken together, these problems suggest that Piketty’s highly praised and historically-driven empirical work may actually be one of the book’s greatest weaknesses.

You can download and read the full 43 page analysis. The sheer number of errors made Piketty are so large it is difficult to do a concise summary.  He gets dates wrong, amounts wrong, data wrong.

The New York Daily news reports that the City University of New York Graduate Center (CUNY) has banned the usage of Mr and Ms from  references and salutations in all correspondence at the university.

The City University of New York’s Graduate Center has banned the words “Mr.” and “Ms.” from official correspondence because the terms are not sensitive to transgender students, according to an internal memo from Interim Provost Louise Lennihan.

“Effective Spring 2015, the (graduate center’s) policy is to eliminate the use of gendered salutations and references in correspondence to students, prospective students and third parties,” Lennihan wrote to the school’s 140 teachers Jan. 16. “Accordingly, Mr. and Ms. should be omitted from salutations.”

I’ve had people incorrectly assume I’m female as my first name can be either a female or male name but only a very thin skinned person would take offence at that. Perhaps the transgender students at CUNY are more sensitive?

CUNY has apparently based its decision to implement this policy on a federal law called Title IX as The Daily Beast explains.

“They may arguably have a right to implement this policy, but they cannot place the decision on Title IX,” said Greg Lukianoff, president of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), a nonprofit dedicated to promoting free speech and due process on American campuses.

“It’s important,” said Lukianoff, “to understand that this is part of a long series of situations in which universities use Title IX as an excuse to pass often unconstitutional codes that they simply want to pass.”

In 2003, university efforts to pass such codes prompted the Department of Education to write a letter to every university in the country stating that Title IX is designed “to protect students from invidious discrimination, not to regulate the content of speech.”

As time passes the PC mob dream up more and more dopey ideas such as this.

The NZ Herald editorial:

The lesson to be drawn from the controversial remarks of author Eleanor Catton is perhaps that those who do their thinking on paper have more to lose when they open their mouth. She should be allowed to live down her comments to a literary audience in India this week.

Far from living them down, she wants to amplify them – as is her right:

In future interviews with foreign media, I will of course discuss the inflammatory, vicious, and patronising things that have been broadcast and published in New Zealand this week. I will of course discuss the frightening swiftness with which the powerful Right move to discredit and silence those who question them, and the culture of fear and hysteria that prevails.

I find it strange that people think that their harsh critical remarks about others are free speech, but if people then in turn make critical remarks about the speaker it is not free speech, but a conspiracy to silence.

The same rationale was in Nicky Hager’s book. Basically people who have centre-right views should not criticise or attack people who say things they disagree with.

Eleanor Catton has every right to travel around the world decrying NZ as a neo-liberal hell-hole. And other people have every right to point out she is speaking nonsense. This Government is so far from neo-liberal it isn’t funny. The last budget was more money for free under 13 healthcare. The announcement this week was an extra 3,000 low income families to get larger subsidies for the rental properties. The Government spends hundreds of millions on subsidies for arts, science, innovation and the like. And the welfare system is one of the most generous in the world.

There is nothing frightening about people exercising their rights to free speech and criticizing someone. Just because you are an artist (or an academic) doesn’t mean you are beyond criticism.

Back to the Herald editorial:

Among many accolades she received in New Zealand, the Herald named her one of its New Zealanders of the Year. We remain proud of her and do not believe she misunderstands these gestures in a country that was proud of her.

Nobody has claimed her achievement “belongs” to the country. It was hers alone.

Her book is a novel set in New Zealand, authentic in its setting in time and place.

Every country takes pleasure in art that reflects it well and counts itself lucky to have artists capable of doing so, especially if its population is small.

As I said yesterday, it was pride in her achievement that saw NZers celebrate her prize, not a desire to minimise the fact that it was her personal achievement.

Fran O’Sullivan writes:

If the Greens are intent on becoming a mainstream political party with sufficient cachet to be a credible Government partner they should persuade Metiria Turei to join Russel Norman in resigning. Norman’s resignation – announced with a great deal of dignity yesterday – has switched the focus to Turei. …

Turei’s personal brand is associated with oppositional politics.

Many centrist voters would vote for a true Greens platform if they were sure it wasn’t going to be accompanied by the resurfacing of Alliance-style policies. Arguably that won’t happen until the Greens elect a modern politician whose focus is square in the mainstream – like Julie Ann Genter – to a leadership role.

Genter has built a strong constituency in Auckland which is starting to transcend party lines. She’s a credible commentator on transport and could easily take a ministerial role in a future government if the Greens get serious about getting into power.

A Shaw and Genter co-leadership of the Greens would give them youth and energy, and allow them to build appeal outside their core hard left constituency.

The Governor-General must issue a writ for the by-election within three weeks of the resignation (s129(2)). So the writ could be issued anytime between Monday 2 and Friday 20 February.

The writ must be returned within 50 days (s 139(4)) so that is between Tuesday 24 March and Thu 9 April.

The polling day must be 20 to 27 days after nominations close (s139(2). And while not specified in statute it has to be at least 12 days before the writ must be returned, to allow time for special votes. Nomination day by convention is a Tuesday.

The earliest date for the by-election would be Saturday 28 February. The last feasible date would be Saturday 28 March.

I look forward to the bye-election with the Labour candidate campaigning on Labour’s policy to scrap the Puhoi to Wellsford expressway and divert the funds into Auckland public transport. It is such an unpopular policy up North that even Kelvin Davis has attacked it. But in a by-election, you can’t have a candidate campaigning on different policy to the party, so it will be interesting to see if Labour scraps their policy.

The Telegraph reports:

High levels of fat, sugar and salt in children’s food would become illegal under a Labour government, the party’s manifesto will say. …

Under the new rules, a maximum limit would be set on levels of fat, salt and sugar in food marketed “substantially” to children.

Mr Burnham has previously considered a 30 per cent cap on sugar in cereals marketed at children. This would hit well-known brands including Kellogg’s Frosties, which have 37.0g of sugar per 100g and Coco Pops with 35g per 100g.

Next they’ll prosecute parents who buy unapproved foods.

Interesting research from Pew. It shows how deluded the Greeks are. They think they are the most hardworking country in Europe when people in most other countries think they are the laziest.

A first hand experience of Greece comes from Rachael, a Kiwi who travelled there:

I first encounter this laziness when I visit the Archeology Museum primarily to see the Greek vase collection which takes up the entire first floor.

I’m ridiculously excited (nerdy I know) but ever since I studied them at high school I’ve been a little obsessed.

But when I get there I discover the collection is closed.

When I ask I’m told – “just because.”

So I ask someone else and they helpfully inform me that they didn’t feel like putting on enough staff to cover it today, even though it’s the weekend. …

Back to Greeks being lazy… they have a equal CBF attitude when it comes to showcasing their most prized possession – the Acropolis. 

Most days it closes at 3pm but somedays earlier – it just depends on how they feel. …

It’s one thing to be lazy. But to be lazy and deluded is dangerous. Which is why they’ve just voted a Government in that thinks the rest of the world has a duty to pay their bills without conditions.

The latest monthly data sees the gap close further in terms of migration with Australia. Just 3,400 net people moved to Australia in 2014 – compared to almost 40,000 in 2012.

A bit over a year ago myself and Graeme Edgeler did an OIA to Corrections about life sentences. I’ve had the reply sitting in a folder for a year or so, and realised I hadn’t blogged the info, which is quite interesting. The data is as of late 2013.

1. 780 offenders given a life sentence since 1985
2. 276 of the 780 have been granted parole at least once
3. The mean period until parole (for those who got it) is 11 years six months and the median is 11 years
4. The mean period between eligibility and parole (for those who got it) is 2 years one month and the median is 1 year and 8 months
5. Of those not yet given parole the mean period since eligibility is 5 years and 5 months and the median period is 4 years and 8 months
6. Of the 276 granted parole, only 11 have been charged with breaching parole conditions. However more will have had breaches but not been charged
7. Of the 276 granted parole, 151 had applications to the Parole Board to recall them to prison, and 118 were granted. This suggests that over half of those released on parole offend to a degree that Corrections tries to recall them
8. 72 of the 276 granted parole have been reconvicted of a serious offence while in the community

The OIA is here – Graeme Edgeler – 21 October 2013 – Life Sentences

My overall impression is that the reoffending rate is high enough that parole is being granted too often for those on life sentences.

Simon Lusk has published the second chapter of his book on campaigning. It is available on Amazon.

He says he is happy to help candidates for parties he disagrees with, with the exception of the Greens. He labels them as the most unsuccessful minor party in NZ – not in terms of votes, but achievements.

He points to the significant policy wins that NZ First, the Alliance, ACT and the Maori Party have managed, and contrasts that to the Greens who have almost nothing to show for 15 years in Parliament.

The future is not much brighter. They refuse to work with National, and if Labour can win in 2017, they will be dependent on NZ First who will again block the Greens from Government.

Northland MP Mike Sabin has resigned as MP for Northland for personal reasons. There have been media reports that he has been under Police investigation over an assault complaint or complaints, so it seems a logical deduction that he is resigning to be able to focus on the allegations.

Always sad for an MP to resign over something like this. I think he has made the right decision to resign. It would be very difficult to remain an MP in such circumstances.