My 2014 predictions were here. Some serious, and some not. How did I go?

1. Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014 – 0
2. The election will be held in October 2014 – 0
3. Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014 – 1
4. There will be two new Ministers before the election – 1 (Lotu-Iiga and Wagner)
5. At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party’s nomination (or will withdraw before the vote) – 0
6. At least two more National MPs will announce they will retire before the election – heaps did – 1
7. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014 – 1
8. The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15.  1/2 – $372 million projected.
9. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council – 0 – thankfully wrong
10. At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list – 1/2 – Browning was on the draft list and Walker went off the list
11. The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election – 1
12. Len Brown will go – 0.
13. Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014 – have to check but pretty sure he did under half – 1
14. National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases – 1
15. Jamie Whyte will be elected the Leader of ACT and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament – 1/2 – thankfully wrong
16. Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu – 1
17. NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011 – 0
18. A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party – 0 – they all said no
19. National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election – 1/2 – lost Napier
20. After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34% – 0 – dropped to 31%

Overall – 10/20 – just scraped through.

An interesting article on Stuff naming 5 people who tried to make NZ a better place, and 7 who didn’t. The author is unknown, but what they write is very revealing.

They name Nicky Hager as someone who made NZ a better place.

They also said Kim Dotcom was in with a chance to make NZ a better place but didn’t as his parties failed to get into Parliament. Does that mean the author thinks NZ would be better if he did get in?

The author also attacks Mike Hosking and Paul Henry:

But both leapt back into the limelight to spout their biased beliefs as Hosking took over Seven Sharp and Henry started The Paul Henry Show to replace Nightline on TV3.

Oh dear we can’t have anyone on television who is unsound, can we.

Merry Christmas to you all.

News.com.au reports:

He announced the decision, just three months before the state election, at NSW Labor’s Sussex Street headquarters on Tuesday afternoon.

It comes after revelations that Mr Robertson signed a letter for Lindt cafe gunman Man Haron Monis in 2011 – two years after the extremist was charged with sending offensive letters to the families of slain diggers.

The letter asked the Department of Families and Community Services to consider granting Monis access to see his children on Father’s Day.

Ouch. MPs need to be careful whom they choose to advocate for. Even before Man Haron Monis turned lethal, he was a deeply repellent figure whom you wouldn’t want to be trying to get favourable Government treatment for.

Liam Hehir writes in Manawatu Standard:

Thursday is Christmas Day. For most New Zealanders, this is not much more than a hard-earned day-off, an occasion to gather with family and licence to eat a quite a bit more than one’s diet allows.

It is also (particularly for children) about the material aspirations of gift giving.

For New Zealand’s Christians, of course, it is also an important religious festival commemorating the nativity of their Man-God. It is the end of the penitential season known as advent and a time of great celebration. …

Instead, the wider culture is now hostile to orthodox Christianity, which is held to a much higher standard of scrutiny than other religions and cultures.

Those who are quite happy to casually sneer at Christians around the office coffee machine seldom have the courage to do the same when other minority identities are concerned.

Where media commentators are purposely respectful of other faiths, they are seldom afraid to propound ignorantly about Christian doctrine or issue bone-headed advice to Christian leaders.

Last month one of Labour’s candidates at the election took to a popular Left-wing blog to publish a tirade against Christians in the party.

The Bible was repeatedly denounced as “snake-oil” and the Christian God was described as “a mean Mutha” who “nailed up his only son as a lesson to other wrongdoers”.

It’s a free country and those kinds of screeds should not be censored.

But just picture the outcry that would have followed a major party candidate writing anything as remotely incendiary about Islam, Buddhism or Hinduism.

Can you imagine the high-dudgeon and editorial hand-wringing such an outburst would occasion?

This is a good and valid point. There is a double standard. Let’s look at what Labour’s Whangarei candidate wrote:

The brutal scars of Christianity do not discriminate, but there is no doubt that that Christian fundamentalism has taken a great toll on the Rainbow community and followers of the Pope have been responsible for most of it.

Imagine what Labour would say if a National Party candidate wrote about the brutal scars of Islam?

We all know the misery that has been inflicted in this Christian god’s name. There’s a smile from one. We’ve already had a discussion about how this Christian god is such a mean muthafucka that he nailed up his only son as a lesson to other wrongdoers. 

Again imagine a National Party candidate talking about the misery inflicted in the name of Allah, and how Mohammed was a pedophile. There would be complaints to the Human Rights Commission.

The brutal scars of Christianity do not discriminate, but there is no doubt that that Christian fundamentalism has taken a great toll on the Rainbow community and followers of the Pope have been responsible for most of it. 

Again try this as “The brutal scars of Islam do not discriminate, but there is no doubt that Islamic fundamentalism has taken a great toll on the Rainbow community, and follows of Islam have been responsible for most of it.”

I’m no fan of the Catholic Church when it comes to their views on sexuality, but last time I checked you didn’t have any Catholic or Christian states that executed people for being gay.

These bible-bashing god-botherers have no greater claim on our time than Amway sellers or other marketers of snake oil. And, yet, even an organisation as broad and inclusive as the Labour Party allows these toxic wares to be purveyed at its meetings. 

One can have a rational discussion on whether party meetings should allow prayers, but the hatred and bile at Christianity is something that would be unacceptable about any other religion – coming from someone who was standing for election just two months ago.

The annual NZ Health Survey was published this month. It is interesting to compare results with 2006/07. These include:

• Over 75s who say they are in good or better health up from 80% to 87%
• Smoking rate down from 20% to 17%
• Under 18 smoking rate down from 16% to 8%
• Hazardous drinking rate down from 18% to 16%
• Under 18 hazardous drinking rate down from 20% to 14%
• 18 – 24 year old hazadrous drinking rate down from 43% to 33%
• Under 18 drinking rate down from 75% to 59%

CNN reports:

Juergen Todenhoefer’s journey was a tough one: dangerous, but also eye-opening. The author traveled deep into ISIS territory — the area they now call their “caliphate” — visiting Raqqa and Deir Ezzor in Syria, as well as Mosul in Iraq. …

Todenhoefer told CNN the enthusiasm the ISIS militants showed was one thing that stood out.

“When we stayed at their recruitment house, there were 50 new fighters who came every day,” Todenhoefer said. “And I just could not believe the glow in their eyes. They felt like they were coming to a promised land, like they were fighting for the right thing.

“These are not stupid people. One of the people we met had just finished his law degree, he had great job offers, but he turned them down to go and fight … We met fighters from Europe and the United States. One of them was from New Jersey. Can you imagine a man from New Jersey traveling to fight for the Islamic State?”

He went on to say that one of ISIS’s main points of strength is their fighters’ willingness — even their will — to die on the battlefield.

Death is embraced by them, not feared.

One of the most remarkable episodes of Todenhoefer’s trip to the ISIS-controlled region came when he was able to conduct an interview with a German fighter who spoke on behalf of ISIS’s leadership.

The man — clearly unapologetic about the group’s transgressions — vowed there was more to come; he also issued a warning to Europe and the United States.

“So you also want to come to Europe?” Todenhoefer asked him.

“No, we will conquer Europe one day,” the man said. “It is not a question of if we will conquer Europe, just a matter of when that will happen. But it is certain … For us, there is no such thing as borders. There are only front lines.

Worth remembering when people say this is nothing to do with us.

“Our expansion will be perpetual … And the Europeans need to know that when we come, it will not be in a nice way. It will be with our weapons. And those who do not convert to Islam or pay the Islamic tax will be killed.”

They’re not big of freedom of religion are they?

Todenhoefer asked the fighter about their treatment of other religions, especially Shia Muslims.

“What about the 150 million Shia, what if they refuse to convert?” Todenhoefer asked.

“150 million, 200 million or 500 million, it does not matter to us,” the fighter answered. “We will kill them all.”

This may just be one guy, but he was speaking on behalf of the leadership.

“I would say that slavery is a great help to us and we will continue to have slavery and beheadings, it is part of our religion … many slaves have converted to Islam and have then been freed.”

Arguably they are reaching Nazi levels of evil.

Stuff has a gallery of some of the great photos their photographers have taken this year. Go check them out, but also I couldn’t resist borrowing this one (by David White) for a caption contest. As always go for funny, not nasty.

Stuff reports:

Dirty Politics has sparked another official probe – this time by the guardian of the country’s public records.

Chief archivist Marilyn Little has agreed to a call from Green MP James Shaw to investigate Prime Minister John Key for deleting text messages.

The practice came to light last month amid a furore about Key’s messages to attack blogger Cameron Slater. Key says he destroys text messages in case his phone is lost.

Shaw believes this might be breaking the Public Records Act and took it up with Little.

In a letter, she confirms she will carry out a review of record-keeping practices for Key’s texts between November 2008, when he first took office and November 2014.

The Greens seem to think it is a crime to delete a text message, if you are in Government. does this apply to the PM, or to every single person in Government? Should every state servant have their text messages archives instantly? Effing insane. Maybe if the Greens are serious about this, they could start by releasing all the text messages between Russel Norman and Kim Dotcom!

The Herald reports:

Auckland Council and Mayor Len Brown were yesterday blindsided by suggestions from the Government and SkyCity that ratepayer money be used to fund the shortfall in costs for a controversial convention centre.

SkyCity chief executive Nigel Morrison yesterday also confirmed his company wants a taxpayer-funded top-up and was willing to walk away from the deal if it doesn’t get it, after last week revealing a rise of up to $130 million for the centre, originally priced at $402 million.

SkyCity was favoured by the Government to build the centre over rival bidders for its willingness to fund and operate the facility itself without taxpayer funds, in return for gambling concessions including more gaming machines and a licence extension.

Mr Morrison said SkyCity “absolutely” wanted a taxpayer top-up and issued a veiled threat to walk away from the project.

“This is an unprecedented investment in tourism infrastructure in Auckland.

If Auckland doesn’t want it, if New Zealand doesn’t want it, quite frankly that’s fine with SkyCity, we don’t have to do this,” he told Radio New Zealand yesterday.

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce, who has overseen talks with SkyCity, said Mr Morrison was “entitled” to try to seek taxpayer dollars. But “I have some slightly more cynical news for him, which is, that’s unlikely to be the case.”

Let Sky City walk, rather than give them taxpayer dollars. They are trying to do a Rio Tinto on the Government and extort some money from them, for something they have agreed to do. I hope Steven Joyce stays firm.

Eric Crampton makes the point:

A government committed to using PPP arrangements also has to be ready to play hardball with contractors who lowball initial cost estimates lest they encourage stupidity in each and every future contract.

The point of what is effectively a PPP is that the private sector partner carries the risk, rather than the Government.

Instead, Mr Joyce said any shortfall which could not be covered by removing costly features, downsizing the centre or more effectively managing construction costs could be offset by an operating subsidy from the council. “The other option is asking for the Auckland Council to come in, not necessarily with capital but if you look at the Wellington Council, they’ve just done a deal to do a convention centre, a much smaller one but they’ve underwritten some operating costs so that might help.”

They should downsize the centre so that it can be constructed for the original price.

The Wellington convention centre deal has actually just fallen over.

The Herald understands SkyCity would also like the council to offer millions of dollars in concessions on costly red tape necessary to build the centre.

Getting rid of red tape for developments would be good.

The NZ Herald reports:

The police raids on internet mogul Kim Dotcom’s mansion were legal, the Supreme Court has ruled.

The court has upheld a Court of Appeal decision that while the search warrants could have been more precisely written they were legal.

The decision is here.

Of interest is once again the Chief Justice is in a minority of one – she voted in favour of the warrants being invalid, but the other four Supreme Court Justices disagreed.

Apologies for the late post – Kokila

Mike Myers great as always

Stuff reports:

An Invercargill couple say their six young kids will go without on Christmas day and it’s the Salvation Army’s fault.

However, the Salvation Army says the parents are to blame for their family’s predicament because they have relied on handouts rather than trying to help themselves.

Shelly Edwards and Leo Hewett said their six children aged 3-10 will get no presents and have a diet of chicken and bread on Christmas day because the Salvation Army failed to help them in their time of need.

“How can we tell the kids there’s nothing for Christmas?” Shelly asked from their south Invercargill state house yesterday.

Shelly said she was on the invalid’s benefit and received a working for families benefit, while her partner was unemployed and seeking employment at the meatworks.Their weekly income was $631 but just $15 was left over after paying for their rent, bills, food and petrol.

If you are on the invalids benefit, then you have probably been on there long-term. So wouldn’t it be a good idea to stop having kids, if you are struggling to pay for the ones you already have? Over 90% of families do this. They discuss how many kids they can afford (and want), and restrict their family to that size. Yes, accidents can occur – which is why we have a generous welfare system for families, but primarily you should not keep having more kids if you are on welfare and unable to provide for the ones you already have.

Struggling to afford a decent Christmas for their kids, they thought it was sorted when the Nga Kete trust referred them to the Salvation Army scheme called adopt-a-family, which sees businesses and individuals sponsor struggling families during Christmas by providing them with a hamper filled with food and treats.

The family had been on the same scheme last year and received presents for their children, a supermarket voucher and a food hamper, they said.

However, when Shelly failed to turn up to a budget advice meeting early this month she was told she had been taken off the adopt-a-family scheme this year, she said. …

Salvation Army spokeswoman Brenda King said the family had never been put on the adopt-a-family scheme this year, effectively because they had failed to help themselves.

Shelly had been using the services of the Salvation Army for about two years and when she received more than three food parcels in one year she was referred to a budget advice centre to receive financial planning assistance, King said.

However, Shelly had not engaged with the budget advisory service so was not put on the adopt-a-family scheme, King said.

The Salvation Army’s aim was for its clients to get to the point where they could look after themselves and be self sufficient.

“If we keep handing out we are enabling them to stay in the situation they are in. We aren’t actually helping them at all in the long run.”

Indeed.

Incidentally I think their estimate of their income is low. I make it:

• Invalids Benefit (couple rate) $217.75
• JobSeeker (couple rate) $174.21
• Family Tax Credits (for six kids) $414.00

So that is a total of $805.96 a week net, not $631. On top of that it is highly likely they get the accommodation supplement or a statehouse subsidized rent.

It would be nice if media did not just take for granted what people say they earn, but independently check their entitlements as I have done.

UPDATE: Assuming there are not two Shelley Edwards in Invercargill, it would seem the mother has convictions for fraud and dishonesty, and breaching home detention. The Judge commented:

You are a thoroughly dishonest woman

Also Stuff has closed comments on the article after just a couple of hours, presumably because they were running 99 to 1 against.

This is why trust in media keeps falling. They just present a sob story to their readers with no independent research or fact checking.

Neil Irwin in the NY Times writes:

Sometimes, decisions that shape the world’s economic future are made with great pomp and gain widespread attention. Other times, they are made through a quick, unanimous vote by members of the New Zealand Parliament who were eager to get home for Christmas.

That is what happened 25 years ago this Sunday, when New Zealand became the first country to set a formal target for how much prices should rise each year — zero to 2 percent in its initial action. The practice was so successful in making the high inflation of the 1970s and ’80s a thing of the past that all of the world’s most advanced nations have emulated it in one form or another. A 2 percent inflation target is now the norm across much of the world, having become virtually an economic religion.

The article has some interesting history on how we made that decision to have the Reserve Bank focus on inflation only. It is a policy that is now followed by pretty much every sane country.

Sadly in NZ the Greens and NZ First rail against it (Greens wanted to print money just a year ago) and Labour has signed up for watering it down. Low inflation doesn’t happen by chance. Who wants to go back to the bad old days of high inflation?

A $100 basket of goods in 2008 only costs $112 today – six years later. But if you looks at the period 1978 to 1984, a $100 basket of goods would have gone up 105% to $205 in just six years.

One of the best way to help low income families is to keep inflation down.

Hat Tip: Eric Crampton

Most of the US cartoons this past week have been about either the normalizing of relations with Cuba or the Sony/North Korea spat. So I chose the possible Hillary Clinton vs Jeb Bush contest in 2016. Both cartoons speak for themselves without any explanation.

The first is by Steve Sack of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

© Steve Sack: found at PoliticalCartoons.com

The second cartoon is by Dave Granlund

© Dave Granlund: found at PoliticalCartoons.com

I’m far from convinced either Hillary or Jeb would make a good POTUS. Two peas from the same pod.

The Herald reports:

Lesbians earn significantly more than their heterosexual colleagues while gay men earn less, according to a World Bank study exposing unexpected links between sexuality and salary.

In Britain, lesbians are paid an average of eight per cent more than straight women, with the trend even more extreme in other western countries. In the US, the difference is 20 per cent.

And off memory the pay gap is around 10% in NZ, so if many more women become lesbians, the gender pay gap will be eliminated, and everyone will be happy.

Incidentally the gender pay gap in NZ was 13% in 2008 and down to 9.9% in 2014.

Stuff reports:

Thunderbirds are go, again, with CITV commissioning another 26 episodes of the remake of the 1960s kitsch classic.

Wellington’s Weta Workshop and Pukeko Pictures, along with one of Britain’s biggest production companies, ITV Studios, will again work together on the show.

The announcement of the second season of the new-generation Thunderbirds series came before the first season even premiered on network television.

My favourite Thunderbird is Thunderbird 6, followed by Thunderbird 2.

This photo was taken while sitting on Totaranui Beach in the Abel Tasman National Park – several years ago around this time of year. The dusk light was superb and it made for a very nice scene to capture. (no link to bigger version sorry)

This is just a quick note to say Happy Christmas and holidays to the Kiwibloggers.

I have been incredibly busy on a number of projects which explains my absence from posting here for a little while. Getting through some of it now and looking forward to January with a new website and some other exciting things to roll out.

Have a great summer.

Cheers

YouTube: Timeless – A Panoramic Journey

Stuff reports:

The number of male teachers in New Zealand schools continues to decline despite the Ministry of Education’s attempts to fix the gender imbalance.

In the past 10 years the number of male teachers in both primary and secondary schools has dropped. Last year men made up only 16.5 per cent of primary school teachers and 41.2 per cent at high schools. …

Rotorua principal and former Secondary Principals’ Association president Patrick Walsh recalled the drive for scholarships but said a decision by the Human Rights Commission halted the initiative.

He said despite male teachers being in a minority, scholarships were only available for women, disabled people and those from varying ethnic backgrounds.

The commission had said it would be unlawful to offer male-only scholarships.

Really?

A female-only scholarship is legal, but not a male-only one – despite the lack of men in teaching? That’s daft.