Winston in trouble?
August 29th, 2005 at 8:51 am by David FarrarThe NZ Herald speculates on trouble for Winston, noting the strong challenge from Bob Clarkson in Tauranga, and the significant fall in the party vote in recent polls.
Clarkson winning Tauranga and a party vote of 4.9% for NZ First would be too much to hope for I suppose 
August 29th, 2005 at 9:11 am
Well, Winnie can “rubbish” away – I remember the same huffing and puffing in ’99, and remember what happened then? Another high profile, hard working and popular National candidate cut his majority to less than a hundred.
The media can game coalitions all they want; ultimately, it’s up to the electors of Tauranga. I just hope we’re not going to see another Margaret Wilson split the anti-Peters vote (and I know people in Tauranga who’d vote for Hannibal Lecter over Peters) and let this toxic waste bitch sleaze through the middle.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 9:11 am
This is one thing that the right and left agree on.
Vote:As soon as that plonker goes the better!
August 29th, 2005 at 9:29 am
man, he’s one politician i wouldn’t mind seeing gone from Parliament, along with the majority of Labour MPs
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 9:31 am
Tauranga in play – part two?
David Farrar is linking to an article about “Winston in trouble in Tauranga” – apparently the leader of NZ First is undergoing a spirited challenge in Tauranga from National candidate Bob Clarkson.
Of course, diligent readers of this blog would ha…
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 9:34 am
I blogged this two weeks ago – nice to see I am at the cutting edge of political analysis!
Aaron
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 9:39 am
DPF your comments thingy is the worst on the internet.
Gnats’ tax cuts for pensioners, opposed by Winston, should see to it that he sinks. Why are the Gnsats allowing their tax cuts to be prtrayed as ‘tax cuts for working NZers’ when in fact it is tax cuts for ALL NZers, including pensioners and beneficiaries?
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 9:40 am
however, You need him don’t you ?
Vote:Maybe Bob Clarkson should withdraw from the race
It would be sad if National didn’t have ANY coalition partners
August 29th, 2005 at 9:41 am
So National are trying to destroy New Zealand First AND the ACT party? Are you people insane? NATIONAL ARE NOT GOING TO GET 51% OF THE VOTE!
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 9:59 am
Dim:
No, Dim, National is putting up credible candidates in strong campaigns and the voters can make up their own damn minds. That’s what a general election in a democracy is all about, isn’t it?
And for a party that loves to bang on about personal responsibility, I’m amazed that it’s *ahem* more shrill supporters are blaming National and Don Brash for all its problems.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 10:06 am
National are dreaming, the glamour boy of Tauranga will cruise home. I think this will make Winstons grey brigade work even harder to see their idol back in parliament.
Vote:It looks to me as if National are not interested in an MMP solution, to winning this election, when they should be.
August 29th, 2005 at 10:20 am
And who is going to be National’s coalition partner then? The Greens?
They seem to loathe ACT and now want NZFirst dead as well. I think someone needs a lesson in MMP.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 10:25 am
whilst those on the left may rail against peters..you still can’t take away from him that he was the one who got free healthcare for nippers…and i haven’t seen labour etc do much better on that one since then..
btw 1..he is also the only one talking about one of the major problems here…and what is holding us back…namely that because of piss-weak unions who lacked the bottle to stand up to the right..we now have a low-wage economy..
any pipe-dreams about hauling ourselves back up that oecd list are doomed to failure if that low-wage culture is not changed/reformed..
btw..i wonder when those in national will get around to doing that mmp 101 paper they have been putting off for so long…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 10:41 am
The situation with NZ First is different from ACT. If Winston had declared a preference for working with National, then it might be in National’s interests that he return to parliament. However the fact that Clark is talking up his chances on ZB tells you all you need to know. Justice dictates he should tell us what’s on his mind or voters will turf him out.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 10:45 am
Roger & Cadmus:
Sorry, but I think you need to learn that MMP doesn’t mean “More Manipulation by Politicians”. I’d really like to hear your “solution”, Cadmus, because voters have shown they don’t like parties doing backroom deals to gerrymander minor parties into Parliament when they can’t make it on their own.
Of course, if National hadn’t stood in Tauranga or put up a second-rate candidate, you’d be the first in line to complain that National was showing arrogant disdain for the will of the people. You know, the VOTERS?
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 11:00 am
I’d like to see Winston lose Tauranga but make the threshold
Vote:That’ll keep him in line
August 29th, 2005 at 11:10 am
I don’t see anything wrong with National putting the squeeze on NZFirst. After all, Peters is a liability, nobody knows which way he’ll jump, he’s opposed National’s key policy, a lot of his support comes from people who used to be core National, and the fastest way to grow the centre right vote is to suck them up from the middle. I’m a lot less convinced about the long term wisdom of squeezing out ACT but that decision has been made already and relitigating it for the umpteenth time seems pointless.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 11:12 am
Craig….That is how MMP game works, so far no party in NZ, or in the world that has an MMP system has won an election outright. With 50% plus of the vote.
Vote:The only way your going to change things, is to again change the voting system of NZ.
The trouble is Craig, in my view National are still focused on the FPP system. Good on them if they think they can win! but I believe will be their downfall. Labour of course know how the MMP game is played, and are playing it well.
August 29th, 2005 at 11:40 am
Adolf,
” Why are the Gnsats allowing their tax cuts to be prtrayed as ‘tax cuts for working NZers’ when in fact it is tax cuts for ALL NZers, including pensioners and beneficiaries?”
Because ‘tax cuts for for wealthy social welfare beneficiaries’ (that being what a lot of retired people are) doesn’t have the same ring to it.
[and they complain about WFF making people a welfare beneficiaries - ha!]
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 12:09 pm
Despite finding him a total pain in the ass, funny thing is, I shall probably miss Winston’s antics when he goes. Good to know though that we are most unlikely to find him with another DP badge pinned to his chest due to being the focus of a desperate bid for power by either Labour or National.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 1:23 pm
i have a question. I’m new to MMP as I’ve been in the UK for a good number of years….what happens when a party has a majority of the electorate vote but not the party vote. Is it possible for a party to govern say if they only get 35% of the party vote but win say 60-65% of the electorate seats.
(it’s easier to ask this than find this on the govt websites.)
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 1:29 pm
Gatoh – if this happens then you get an overhang in Parliament and additional seats are added to make up for the additional electorate MPs.
This is probably gonna happen with the Maori party – they’re expected to get somewhere between 3-7 MPs, but they’re hovering at about 1% of the national vote.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 1:37 pm
There aren’t enough electorate seats for someone to get 65% of the vote from electorate seats alone. There are 62 regular seats and 7 maori seats.
However the situation you describe in which a party gets more electorate seats than thier proportion of the party vote, can happen, and is looking likely to happen in the maori seats. That is called an overhang.
Say the Maori party get 2 % of the party vote, but they win 4 of the Maori seats then they still get 4 seats, although they would normally only get 2, in that case you end up with 122 MPs in parliment. But the overhang gets taken into account when doing the seat allocation (I am pretty sure) so if National got 50% of the party vote in the above scenario, then they would get 61 MPs rather than 60.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 2:58 pm
Peter Grooby – In your situation, National would get 60 MPs, overhang or no overhang.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 3:21 pm
I also would have liked and probably voted to help Act get over 5%. Otherwise I agree with DIM what planet are National on. Their total efforts and money will be wasted if he doesn’t make the grade. Like him or not, apart from Rodney, none of the National Caucus caused anywhere near the discomfort to Labour in Opposition, that he did. His defeat might cause jubilation in the National Camp but nowhere near the ecstasy in the Socialist camp.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 3:29 pm
The Labour candidate should endorse Clarkson
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 3:48 pm
I see ‘The Letter’ is wondering, tonge in cheek (unfortunate cliche), whether Winston is gay. I’m sure he is but only in the real sense of being a jolly jovial person such as one could be decades before the liberals hijacked the word ‘gay.’. However, that won’t stop the media if they think there might be a few extra papers sold. Would serve him right to get a bit of his own mud slung back at him.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 4:40 pm
I wonder what would happen if all parties (other than NZ First) help the most likely candidiate to beat Winston in Tauranga to win the seat.
They can then have a lively competition at the next elections.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 4:50 pm
I assume Tauranga would be a safe National seat with no Winston??
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 4:51 pm
David you and your mates who hate Winston so much should read Cathy Odgers lead comment.It sums National’s prospects up with all the intellectual perspicacity with which you often credit her.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 5:01 pm
Craig’s right – some people need a lesson in democracy. And as for the clap trap about National needing ACT – this is not 1996 with ACT hovering around 4.5% – ACT is at 1% and is irrelevant. National is not going to damage its own electorate chances (again) to save ACT – and, sadly, the whinging and bollocks that has come from ACT and some of its supporters as it heads off into oblivion makes me less and less sad as the election comes closer.
Winston losing Tauranga would be the best thing that could happen for this country.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 6:28 pm
Or should the Labour candidate endorse Peters. But then maybe the Greens need a lifeline so perhaps Labour should endorse them in Coromandel (query is Jeanette running there). Just think Winston is feeling a tad under pressure with Bob Clarkson’s assault on him in Tauranga. Seems that Winston is forced to campaign at home, just like Rodney is, in Epsom. Once you atart that then it is CURTAINS for the nationwide vote.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 6:31 pm
Please tell us GPT who National will work with if Winston loses his seat and ACT is gone?
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 7:27 pm
Roger,I’m wondering too.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 7:31 pm
National is comitting suicide. ACT have no chance of breaching 5%. NZF does.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 9:59 pm
Shawn – Working with NZF would be suicide too. Evidence: National is only just recovering from the damage done the last time they did. It’s a pity national is going to be left with no coalition options (unless ACT wins Epsom and saves that 1-2% of right vote) but it might be worthwhile to have them miss out this time while retaining some honour and cred. Then Labour can really screw themselves and we’ll be rid of them for 12 years or so.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 11:18 pm
Roger & Mara:
So, it’s National’s responsibility to protect ACT and NZ First if they can’t pull their shit together to present an attractive and viable platform to at least 5% of voters?
I don’t know how many times this has to be said: We live in a Parliamentary democracy where the tiresome peasants get to choose their MPs. Sorry about that, but in the end Clark and Brash have to do the best they can with what they’re given.
Build a bridge and get over it. BTW, you’ve forgotten the other option – I wonder which party would want to go to the polls as the folks who collapsed a legitimate and lawful government?
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 11:59 pm
The other party that would support National is UF – if they go with Labour every time they can hardly claim to be centre. And NZ 1st votes get redistributed – so National would pick up near half of them on the redistribution – which is probably more than they will get if he gets into Parliament (my pick is he will go with Labour – he went with National last time).
Of course, it is pretty much a moot point – he will cross the threshold anyway.
Vote:August 30th, 2005 at 5:34 pm
If NZ First go under in the electorate and also fall under 5% – then National and Labour gain about 2 seats each.
If NZ First survives, National needs them to govern. That means a one term government.
If ACT and NZ First both exit, National gain an enlarged caucus and are in position to govern alone in 2008. When a tax cut programme would be more fiscally responsible than now.
Vote:August 30th, 2005 at 5:36 pm
If NZ First go under in the electorate and also fall under 5% – then National and Labour gain about 2 seats each.
If NZ First survives, National needs them to govern. That means a one term government.
If ACT and NZ First both exit, National gain an enlarged caucus and are in position to govern alone in 2008. When a tax cut programme would be more fiscally responsible than now.
Vote: