Is it all over?

If specials do not change the result, then I certainly think we have a Labour-led Government. It is just a matter of its form.

Prebble has claimed that even if the Greens fall below 5%, Labour would form the Government. Let’s look at that scenario. The Parliament would then be (if no other votes change in proportion to each other):

Labour 52
National 51
NZ First 7
Maori 4 (one overhang)
United 3
ACT 2
Progressive 2

Total 121

You need 61 seats to govern, and blocs are:

Lab/Prog/Maori 58
Nat/ACT 53
Uni/NZF 10

So if the centre parties failed to agree on terms with Labour you could get a centre right government with 63/121 seats. If the Greens do stay in then the best the CR can do is 61/122.

As I have said previously though (including on National Radio yesterday) I regard it as most unlikely the Greens would drop below 5%. But one should wait for the final acount, rather than make assumptions.