Williams says ten MPs to go?
May 31st, 2007 at 8:36 pm by David FarrarOn Agenda last weekend, Labour President Mike Williams said:
“There are a significant number of retirements going to.we think probably six or eight may be ten will retire – people who feel they’ve done their dash made their contribution.”
That’s a fair few. Let’s see who those ten may be:
Definite
Dover Samuels
Russell Fairbrother
Marian Hobbs
Paul Swain
Probable
Parekura Horomia
Rick Barker
Mahaha Okeroa
George Hawkins
Jill Pettis
Di Yates
Possible
Annette King
Margaret Wilson
Ross Robertson
Lesley Soper
But has Labour left rejuvenation too late? Let us look at the Labour top eight (which is what most of the public see the most). In 2007 it is:
Clark
Cullen
Maharey
Goff
King
Mallard
Hodgson
Horomia
Now that is, I think, almost identical to the top eight in 2000. Horomia the only new face I think.
Now look at how National changed its top eight by its third term. In 1990 it was:
Bolger
McKinnon
Birch
Richardson
East
Shipley
Kidd
Burdon
And in 1999:
Shipley
Creech
English
Luxton
Birch
Bradford
Sowry
Smith
Now of course National still lost the 1999 election, but it does show they did manage to rejuvenate while in office, with a very different front bench in their third term to their first term.
Labour would be silly to change Clark before the election, but if they want a proper rejuvenation, some of their frontbench need to consider their futures.
Tuesday’s Dom Post Editorial touches on this also:
But just as winning sports teams have to constantly rejuvenate their playing strength, so political parties need to keep finding new talent.
That, however, is something Labour has failed to do. A year ago it was a failing it might have got away with. But, with National under new leadership, it is no longer enough for Labour just to muddle along.
To be fair to Miss Clark she has tried to freshen up her cabinet but she has been handicapped by the dearth of talent within Labour’s ranks, a consequence of selecting candidates on the basis of loyalty and service to the party rather than ability.
Miss Clark can either buy the peace by pandering to sensitivities of non-performers within Labour’s ranks or she can gear up to face the new challenge from National. She cannot do both. What she decides will affect not just the coming election, but Labour’s ability to fight future elections.
Related posts:
- Labour fails to rejuvenate
- Winning a third term for National – Part II
- Rejuvenation
- Editorials on Williams
May 31st, 2007 at 10:05 pm
Ross Robertson should be Speaker, and if Clem Simich ain’t around after the next election, National should make him it.
Vote:May 31st, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Who cares really what Labour do. I just hope they do not do much this side of the election. However she handled the Mercury power thing with accomplished skill. She knows how to make the right noises without drawing a problem towards her. Indeed the Labour Government is very skillfull at avoiding responsibility for anything. This should not be surprising when you have people who have never done anything very important in their lives so when they get in the hot seat they find ways to blame someone else all the time, especially the National Party.
Vote:May 31st, 2007 at 10:11 pm
And in 1999:
Shipley
Creech
English
Luxton
Birch
Bradford
Sowry
Smith
(now..dosen’t that list of names/memories send a shudder up the spine..eh..?..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 31st, 2007 at 10:12 pm
why Robertson?
Vote:May 31st, 2007 at 10:13 pm
I would say that both Clark and Cullen would go. You don’t have a stellar career then go and sit on the opposition benches (election prediction included here). Clark will go on to some high powered job in Geneva or New York and Cullen will go tend his roses in Taradale.
Vote:May 31st, 2007 at 10:19 pm
DPF
I would add Helen Clark to the list of possibles.
Another six months of polling like this and either she’ll bail or there will be a leadership squabble and she’ll be ejected.
Vote:May 31st, 2007 at 11:55 pm
You missed a couple on death row -
Ann Hartley
Mita Ririnui
Chadwick and Burton need a good list rankings because they’ll lose their electorates.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 12:08 am
DPF – I think what your example shows is where rejuvenation for rejuvenations sake gets you. National would have been far better off sticking with their 1990 line-up.
That bunch of pretenders in 1999 were a disgrace and National are still paying for that abysmal line-up 8 years later.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 2:20 am
Labour is bleeding votes from the middle. The 9-5 workers paying high interest rates on mortgages for modest homes. This is where the election will, and is always, won and lost.
In my opinion the man who this group of voters is turning away from is Cullen. His arrogance and ‘I know best’ atittude is killing any hope Labour has in 2008. All the electorate is asking for is some immediate return on the prosperity the nation has enjoyed for the past 10 years. Kiwisaver is good but a reluctance to even entertain tax cuts is bizzare.
That is why Clark should really show how strong a leader she is and put him out to pasture now. Labour will never win another election with Cullen in charge of the purse strings.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 4:57 am
Sure, Phil, It would send a shiver up your spine if you actually had one.
My 10 to go would include the top 10 starting at Clark and Cullen.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 5:12 am
If it wasn’t for the list we would see almost all the Labour front bench wiped out and on the dole the next day after the election. I mean who would vote for Cullen right now?
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 6:12 am
Agreed:
Culling Cullen for Christmas would have a game changing symbolic effect.
And is Miz Clark prepared to place her personal reputation [such as it is] on a win-lose 2008 election gamble or will she step aside well beforehand?
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 6:20 am
Culling ten or so time-expired Z-listers like Samuels and Hawkins and bringing in totally unknown replacements will not do the business.
The cull has include individuals drawn from amongst the high-visibility front bench to have any credible public impact. Individuals like Cullen, Marharey, Benson-Pope, Horrormea should be invited to spend the weekend developing a one-pager presenting the reasons why they should not get the order of the push.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 7:29 am
Hell-en KKKlarKKK will be gone at Xmas – the best Xmas gift I have ever received.
You heard it from me first.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 7:49 am
Flashman:
Well, IMO, the time for ‘rejuvenation’ would have been during the candidate and list selection process, before the 2005 election. Instead, the Labour list turned out to be the most efficient recycling scheme in New Zealand.
All parties have an interesting tension going on around the list, in particular – and both National and Labour, in their different ways, have seen the long-term blowback when a list is weighed towards incumbent insurance, and the electoral tide goes out on you.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 8:05 am
add to the list of those going the mp’s about to be thrown out by their electorate e.g. O’Connor west coast/tasman. he almost lost this seat last time, beaten on the coast & saved by motueka and golden bay…word is that motueka can’t be counted on anymore. real disquiet like rest of country. he is not on list so doesn’t have insurance!
Vote:which other labour mp’s are on shaky ground?
June 1st, 2007 at 8:33 am
The only “Rejuvenation” the public should expect, is that Labour are ousted from power – sooner rather than later
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 8:45 am
Hawkins cannot be removed – he controls his local electorate committee. King will not step down – she wants to be leader after Klark.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 9:14 am
I have no doubt the polls will close, but if say National did get 10% more than Labour next election, that suggests to me quite a few more electorate seats will fall also. Will they be protected on the list?
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 9:44 am
“Hell-en KKKlarKKK” – these morons defy parody? you’re quick to admonish us raving reds david, what about this genius?
Labour could do with rejuvenation. Maharey’s my man for the job: solid constituency, hard working MP, not afraid to say a hard word now and then :p
Aslo dpf what about a thread on national’s caucus. Maurice Williamson is a tired conservative who has yo-yoed up and down the ranks for donkey’s years, and Judith Collins is a moron according to national’s best MP: presents a reasonable sized problem once the glory of being the fortunate beneficiaries of a thrid term government losing their gravitas with a fickle electorate wears off, aye?
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 10:02 am
‘The tree of liberty must be watered from time to time with the blood of tyrants and patriots’
Thomas Jefferson
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 11:02 am
Cull KLARK for XMAS, LUV it !!! and KULLEN too..
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Hawkins will not go. He is a prominent member of the right wing faction in Labour and Goff needs him when he makes his move.
He controls the Manurewa LEC with an iron fist and, if Williams tries to manufacture his exit, then Jihad will ensue.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Ross:
Hum… but you can win the battle and lose the war. I’m obviously not privy to the inner councils of the Labour Party, but I assume if it really got down to a public spite-fuck selection (which is not unknown in Labour or National) then the campaign can easily find *cough* more effective uses for limited resources. In the end, the one thing you do have to give Labour credit for is that they’ve learned from the 80′s and early 90′s. You don’t win elections by having your family squabbles in the middle of the street.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 3:06 pm
Ross you have obviously never studied the Labour Party constitution. Head Office and the local party have roughly the same representation in determining who the electorate candidate is.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 4:02 pm
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Klark is actually very polarising. So a new leader like Goff or Maharey might inspire voters to take another look. Especially if they dropped the whole anti-tax cut & spending spree approach.
I also agree with the analysis in the comments that Labour’s situation would be better if they ditched Cullen either before ’05 or just after. Cullen is very unpopular.
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Labour may be planning on ditching 10 MPs.
The electorate appear to have plans to ditch considerably more than that.
Power to the people!
Vote:June 1st, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Good Grief! I can’t believe you’re all arguing how and why Labour can win the next election.
Let’s start from the beginning.
nothing labour can do will help them win the next election
for those of you who attended state schools, or staying in NZ for Varsity, I’ll say that again:
nothing labour can do will help them win the next election
Labo
ur will be out of government for at least the next 10 years.
Noone on the front bench will every be in government again.
You don’t have to be a genius to see that.
The real question is: whether the National party in government takes the opportunity to completely destory the existing labour party. Frankly I hope that they will: deregister the party, jail the entire leadership, confiscate all the assets. But I’m sure they won’t do that – even though democracy demands it.
Vote:But the Maorimander and the moneymander needs to go: the unions need to go, the ERA and RMA need to go, the hospitals and schools and all the rest need to go. And Key can and will deliver all that.
June 2nd, 2007 at 1:07 am
Hard to believe you’re alleging National “rejuvinated” its front bench in 1999 voluntarily, passing that off as some genuine attempt to ‘get back in touch’ with the people.
It came about through crisis. Any other reason is ornamental.
Still, it begs a pretty interesting question, and one no-one could imagine someone like Guyon Espiner asking just last week: *could* Clark go by Christmas? Only six months ago suggesting something like that would have been unthinkable. As difficult as the last 16 months have been for Clark it’s really only the last fortnight that has hurt.
And, when you think about it, a fortnight isn’t really that long in politics…
Vote:June 2nd, 2007 at 10:32 am
Greg … I know Hawkins and the way he operates. I repeat, if Willaims tries to manufacture an early exit then Jihad will ensue.
Vote:June 3rd, 2007 at 3:58 am
my top three for labour 2008 would have Maharey as PM, Goff as Deputy and Foreign Affairs and Mallard as Finance Minister. Clark and Cullen should give it up before the years end.
Parker should be promoted to the front bench and Laban should be promoted to minister within cabinet.
Vote: