Crime Stats

October 2nd, 2007 at 7:15 am by David Farrar

I should save this post and repost it every six months.

The overall crime stats mean little for three reasons.

  1. They treat every crime as equivalent – a murder the same as someone possessing cannabis
  2. A small change in a very frequent crime can mask larger changes in less frequent and more serious crimes
  3. Certain crime stats can go up or down in relation to how much effort the Police put into that area.

Hence for some years I have focused mainly on violent crimes, and to a lesser degree sexual crimes.  Yes the overall crime rate has some psychological value, but the average NZer is not too worried about how many people got done for having some pot, but they are worried about being beaten up or worse.
Lindsay Mitchell notes sarcastically how the Police try to paint every single increase in crime as good news.

Now the stats to 30 June 2007 have violent crime up 4.4% and sexual crimes up  4.6%.  This is not good news, and I wish the Police Commissioner’s Office would focus more on reducing the crime rate rather than spinning mroe crime as good news.

The spin is that the increase in violent crimes come from more work on domestic violence.  Well domestic violence tends to be minor assaults, so how did assaults increase in the last year:

  • Minor assaults up 2.2%
  • Serious assaults up 4.8%
  • Grievous assaults up 10.0%

Speaks for itself.

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93 Responses to “Crime Stats”

  1. Frank. (607 comments) says:

    The spin doctors are having an absolute ball. Working overtime to cope.

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  2. tim barclay (886 comments) says:

    The police love this big increase because they can ask for lots and lots of increased funding from the Treeasury. There will be a public campign about that very soon. The Police are the only Government Department that uses the weight of public opinion to put presuure on politicians over funding lead through their union the Police Association. Ask them to use public money more effectively and they scream and yell and come up with all sorts of excuses. It would be very interesting indeed to do a productivity study of the police and see what value for money the Tax Payer is getting.

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  3. Puzzled in Ekatahuna (346 comments) says:

    So the greater the number of police recruited to met Winston First’s demands, the higher all our crime statistics will rise? This spin of course means that past crime statistics are inaccurate because of the amount of undetected crime, if the current rates can be attributed to the efforts of the police to find crime, not criminals ceasing doing it. This Broad interpretation just makes police statistics as meaningless as Labour’s dabbling has made online polls pointless!

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  4. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    I can see why Labour scrapped the serious fraud office because it makes it easier for them to manipulate the statistics and continue with all the rorts and cover -ups .

    Great to see the minister of police blame men for all the domestic violence .
    No wonder the statue of justice is blindfolded and is symbolized by a sexist bitch .

    It’s the hammer or the baton peter , RIP balance in New Zealand !

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  5. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    wot tim said..

    and of course..a good cost-cutting place to start..

    would be doing away with the costs..both financial and social..

    of our stupid cannabis laws..

    http://whoar.co.nz/2007/what-would-cops-do-without-weedand-how-about-that-green-party-u-turnbetrayal-on-their-cannabis-policiesehthats-a-turn-up-for-the-bookseh/

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  6. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    The spin formula is simple:-

    1. if crime of type [insert crime type] goes up claim there’s more reporting of it and that this is a good thing, allows us to focus resources yada yada

    2. if crime of type [insert crime type] goes down claim there are fewer convictions and that this is a good thing, prevention strategies are working yada yada

    In some cases these lines may well be the truth… but ask anyone in NZ if the last decade has seen NZ become a more safe, more balanced society and i suspect there will be few jumping to agree

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  7. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Forget the joints Phi,l as our inner cities are dangerous in the after hours , violent crime on the rise and you advocate getting everybody stoned . Look you, the nutbar party pills introduced by that rope head have helped create mayhem for society , hence , ” why did you shoot my friend ” !!@!@!

    I hope the greens are destroyed at the next election as youth crime is out of control as the pc approach is not working !!

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  8. Andrew W (1,629 comments) says:

    People have been using this word “rort” lately, it should be between “Rorschach test” and “Rory” in the dictionary but it isn’t, is it a new word or do people mean “rout” or what?

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  9. Simon Arnold (109 comments) says:

    A few other comments about these reported crime statistics. First they are only reported crime, so depnd on reporting being consistent from year to year (which tends not to be the case) and a large proportion of crime is police generated i.e. it is the level of police activity that determines if a crime is committed (eg disorderly behaviour). Crime that tends to be reported well are murders and serious assults (hard to cover up a stiff) and property crimes (insurance tends to encourage reporting). Obviously crime that occurs in private or is victimless has very low reporting.

    Another little quirk is that crime has tended to be the preserve of 15 to 30 year old males (although females are getting into the act as are older males) and disproportionately Maori and PI. This means that while this cohort is increasing the number of crimes tends to go up regardless of what’s happening in the rest of the population, and the other way round. If the cohort is leveling off while the total population is still growing then you get apparent reductions in the crime rate, even though nothing has changed.

    In the end the best measures of crime come from victimisation surveys, and unfortunately these are not done regularly enough to give good regular headlines.

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  10. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    I love the reporting of Crime stats.

    If they dip by 0.0001% the Govt claim that there policies are a success and the gradula reduction in crime proves it.

    If they go up by 4% it’s a reporting anomoly.

    There is a Tui billboard in this somewhere.

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  11. ray (63 comments) says:

    Andrew W
    “Is it a new word or do people mean “rout” or what?”
    Rort is slang and came out of Australia some years ago, it means to rip off the public and of course has with the current government has become a much used word

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  12. tim barclay (886 comments) says:

    PHil the “stupid cannabis” laws do not chew up much police resources. Hardly any at all. I am in favour of those laws because one day I hope abusers of drugs including alcohol can be given an injection that will remove permanently all the need to take these dangerous substances. In the meantime they can be kept illegal.

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  13. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    It doesn’t speak for itself –

    the stats are for recorded crime so there are three basic elements to that:

    The actual number of crimes: (easy enough to understand, actual crime levles are heavily influenced by the economic situaiton, the deterrent effect of Police, the introduction of new drugs etc)

    The number of those that are reported to Police: (dependent on people’s trust of Police, Police numbers, and areas of concerntration by Police and government policy – this is especially true in two areas: drug offences, which are generally not reported by victims – there are none directly – but ‘discovered’ by Police, and domestic and sexual violence, which we know to be massively underreported – and doemstic violence makes up the bulk of violent crime)

    How those crimes are recorded by Police (are concurrent offences counted as seperate crimes for example, the step change in crime numbers last year reflected a change in recording practice)

    So, we cannot say immediately whether a change in recorded crime figures is a result of actual changes in the number of crimes being committed.

    In the case of this year’s figures who should we believe? Anne Tolley who said “people have always reported it when they have been greiviously assualted” displaying an appalling ignorance of the fact that most domestic assualts are not reported (and that the reporting rate is rising), or professional crime statisticans, who say the rise in recorded drug, violent, and seuxal offences is primarily a result of Police practice?

    There is one offene class where wee can be relatively confidnet recorded numbers are close to acutal numbers, and that’s homicide. Murders were down nearly 20% last year. To be fair, the numbers are so small 59 vs 50 that is would be unwise to draw hard conclusions because of statistical varienace and clustering, although I do seem to remember National crying over the ‘2007 summer massacre’ when the usual cluster of homicides occurred in the Christams/New Year’s period.

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  14. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    I left demographic effects off my list of why actual crime levels change – Simin Arnold is quite right, they are a dominent factor.

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  15. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    tim said:..

    “..PHil the “stupid cannabis” laws do not chew up much police resources.

    Hardly any at all..”

    whoar..!..which orifice did you pull that purler out of..?

    got any facts/stats tucked away in that same orifice that support your ‘silly’ statement/claim..?

    and andrew..my copy of the bloomsbury dictionary of contemporary slang has ‘rort’ of aussie origin..

    def:..”to cheat manipulate or bamboozle’..

    (c.f…’hollow-men’..?..)

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  16. James Cairney (165 comments) says:

    “Now the stats to 30 June 2007 have violent crime up 4.4% and sexual crimes up 4.6%. This is not good news”

    And if increased reporting and prosecuting of domestic and sexual violence accounted for the entire increase, with a decrease in actual offences, would that still be bad news?

    Violent crime and sexual crime are two of the worst stats for comparative value. It *is* that simple. If you want crime stats for comparative value look to property crime and homicide (not perfect, but much better). And I have posting that for years.

    This does not mean to say that violent offending is not increasing, just that the vast majority of violent (and sexual) offending occurs in the home (almost all of it). And, up until recently they were ‘private matters’ so did not feature in the statistics. It is that simple.

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  17. James Cairney (165 comments) says:

    And this … “domestic violence tends to be minor assaults” … is plain bull shit.

    In my view there has been a tendency to jack the seriousness of charges up (in all areas). What was indecent assault in the 1980’s is often sexual violation today, broken nose charged as GBH etc etc etc.

    Bit sheltered are we David?

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  18. philu (13,393 comments) says:

    or..andrew w…

    you could get a young person to teach you how to ‘google’..eh..?

    once that was sorted..you’d find many of those little things’ in life that mystify you..will be mysteries no more..

    googling’ll help to iron out those puzzled creases from your forhead..eh..?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  19. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    I’ve just been out to pick up our mail. On the way home, I drove past a couple of kids walking down the road and watched as one, maybe 12 years old, punched a hole in a “for sale” sign outside a house. Buildings and fences all through my suburb are tagged with such monikers as “BTW”, “Royal Bloodz”, and the latest youth gang in town, “FTW” (F*ck The World, so I am informed). At my previous workplace, I was gobsmacked by the attitudes of the younger people on the staff – Maori, Pakeha and PI, but predominantly Maori – arrogant, the world owes them a living, don’t give a stuff about anything.

    Is it any wonder that violent crime continues to increase when those kinds of attitudes are so prevalent in society? In fact, they are pretty close to being ingrained now, into an entire generation of young people. The mindless attitudes towards damage to property, to driving, and to authority quickly translates into a culture of violence, especially when cannabis, alcohol and methamphetamines are added. I don’t have any answers, but I know one thing for sure – no amount of money could entice me to become a cop!

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  20. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “I left demographic effects off my list”

    You left the main factor off your list and that is socialism. Wherever that political system becomes ascendant, crime and especially violent crime increases. Just another negative outcome of socialism, and like all the other such destructive outcomes, ignored by the zealots who promote that political system so blindly and so religiously.

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  21. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    People have been using this word “rort” lately,

    Its a word that if you’re an aging and clapped out silvercheck wearing pseudo liberal who’s never been anywhere or done anything, you wouldn’t know the meaning of. FFS..!!

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  22. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Ratbiter blames “socialism”

    Thats a turn-up for the books. I wonder when Stalin will get a mention?

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  23. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Welcome to the socialist machine of bullshit and jelly beans , anybody read that study that said = both mum and dad enjoy dv ?

    Ooops , when is white, pink ribbon day again , thank you minister of love , ooops I mean lickspittle rortism black ribbon gay day ?

    I can’t fix me house or play golf because I’m worried about the blue gun thugs?

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  24. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Buzz off kid cause I got me a gun !!!

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  25. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Thats a turn-up for the books.”

    What books? Mao’s little Red One, or Das Kapital? I mean, that’s your entire library right?.

    Check the stats you blind fool. Even your heavenly Nordic and Scandinavian socialist quagmires have extraordinarily high property crime and violent crime rates. Check the stats on NZ, and you’ll see that as you people have taken control, so has crime increased. You don’t care. Even more, you purposefully ignore it. You want control, and nothing else matters.

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  26. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    So… crime on the increase and we have a Labour government that’s ineffectual at dealing with it.

    Time for a change or shall we let Labour try to sort this mess out?

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  27. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Just look at Sweden , its a hell hole for men , auntie hell likes it there and so does peter .

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  28. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Too easy you lying leftie socialists !

    Time for change , John Key PM , election before Christmas as the country is in a state of political corruption !!

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  29. Robert Owen (236 comments) says:

    “Just look at Sweden , its a hell hole for men”
    When i was in Sweden a few years ago I formed the opinion that I had died and gone to Heaven

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  30. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Robert I won’t even go on about Sweden, but the many horror stories from fathers’ in that country is enough to convince me about the nanny country dumb mentality .

    It must be so frustrating and hard for good police within the force that are manacled by culturally sensitive procedure when it comes to crime fighting ?

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  31. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    Krazykiwi – you’re the only one from the right posting on this thread worth engaging with: see my post above for why you can’t look at the figures farrar feeds you and conclude crime is getting worse

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  32. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Crime looks set to get more and more and more home detention is proposed by the utopianism minister of justice . I see what the socialists meant when they said Rolleston the town of the future .

    Hey dad why are those guys in the next rows wearing ankle bracelets ? Carry on pruning boy , don’t ask , blame auntie hell lad and get back to work lad so we can pay more tax to caustic kullen bastard face !!

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  33. gd (2,286 comments) says:

    I just love Annettes commnent last night that WE all have to take responsibility for the crime stats

    The next pollie who says that to me in striking distance will get my fist in their gob.

    So what do they want WE to do about the crime.

    I know Annette let me organise some Crime Preventation Units. They will consist of good strong honest Kiwi blokes who are pissed off with you and your weasel words and with the soft cock so called liberals who inflict themselves on this and other sites.

    The CPUs will be armed with Magnums and AK47s. They will patrol the known crime spots around the country.

    Offenders will be terminated with extreme predjudice.

    See Annette and others You want WE to take responsibility for crime. Give us the tools and WE will get the job done.

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  34. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Sorry sam I don’t want to get engaged thank you , I will stop posting, as I would hate to offend and get banned wanned again ?

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  35. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    “The next pollie who says that to me in striking distance will get my fist in their gob.”

    Which might get you shot by your good strong honest Kiwi mates.

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  36. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Does Annette King mean for all of us to take responsibility for family members that go a wee bit wayward ? Interesting that stones break glasshouse windows .

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  37. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    Sam, the actual vs reported vs solved crime stats are lies, damn lies and statistics. anyone is welcome to cite one vs the other to make a case for any trending whatsoever.

    my contention is this: does the average NZer feel that crime is on the rise or not? if yes, then why are the politicians spinning things in an attempt to depict the opposite?

    for the record – I think that crime is on the rise, and further, that reported crime would jump into the stratosphere if we included the lying of Labour politicians into the mix.

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  38. gd (2,286 comments) says:

    Ok Sonic tell me in detail what steps I must take to take responsibillity . No waffle like your Socialist mates.

    Clear precise actions that I must take to reduce the criminal acts of OTHERS not myself.

    Come on Sonic Im waiting

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  39. Deane (1 comment) says:

    Robert Owen:
    Just remember Sweden just through out its left wing govt in favour of a distinctly rigth wing one.

    Andrew W:
    rort
    A fraudulent or dishonest act or practice (a tax rort). Also used as a verb (to rort the system). Rort comes from standard English rorty meaning ‘boisterous, jolly’, and, in the late nineteenth century, ‘coarse, of dubious propriety’. The second sense of rorty disappeared, but has been retained in the Australian rort. First recorded 1919.

    Everyone else:
    Come on everyone, move along, there’s nothing to see here.

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  40. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    KK- you ‘feel’ crime is on the rise, I ‘feel’ crime is on the decrease. That’s meaningless, perhaps we can each back up our feelings with some anaecdotes, equally meaningless when we’re considering national crime levels.

    Only statistics are a basis for discussing national trends on such issues – and we ahve to realise what the stats are that we are dealing with (ie recorded crimes, not actual) and the factors that can affect those numbers other than a change in the actual number of crimes.

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  41. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    I never said you were responsible or should be responsible gd old chum.

    Given your attitudes expressed here I think a career in law and order is probably not your best option.

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  42. uk_kiwi (74 comments) says:

    So rather than blaming each other, what is the solution?

    I suspect the 50% of Maori boys who drop out of school before they turn 16 is one key area that can be targeted- give them something to do before they get turned on to a life of crime. Where are the career prospects for these kids?

    The gangsta culture also glamourizes crime- maybe some educational videos about the real “thug life” -in jail- would make some of these young offenders think twice.

    Or just build more and more prisons as the crime rate goes up and up…

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  43. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Given your attitudes expressed here I think a career in law and order is probably not your best option.”

    Given that stats under discussion here, whosoever is making it their career at the moment should choose another. Starting with Kommie King and her bunch of arse kissing Labour friendly commissioners who routinely allow political correctness to take precedence over effective crime reduction measures.

    Like all such negative leftist outcomes, those responsible for them totally disavow their responsibility, or more frequently even deny such outcomes exist.

    GD is perfectly correct. King’s pathetic PC bleating about it being “our” responsibility is just collectivist crap. Man, as NZ continues its slide into the socialist sewer, you lying twisting cheating power crazed commie bastards have so much to answer for.

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  44. Robert Owen (236 comments) says:

    Bloody Police, Kill the Bill

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  45. Frank. (607 comments) says:

    DarrenG Says: ” Well isn’t it a good thing that its never ‘in the public interest” to prosecute the PM, the Liarbour Party and it’s MPs for their various offences, otherwise reported crime would have gone through the roof”.

    You have nearly hit the bullseye. Include all the MPs that advantage themselves to the disadvantage of Joe Bloggs. They are the Law Makers and if found out breaking the law, validate their offence.

    The Police are “THe Guardians of the Law”? They field the complaints, and have the discretion as to whether they do or do not investigate. Again, even after investigation when they have prima facie evidence of guilt, they have the discretion as to whether they will prosecute or not. (Public Interest?).

    We have the perfect example with Taito Field. Commissioner Broad decides they will not investigate the first complaint about Field. Do you know why?

    In my book it was because the complaint was laid aiming at the Archilles Heel of all Members of Parliament viz: That section of the Crimes Act 1961 that makes it a criminal offence for a MP or any other Person in the Service of the Crown to advantage themselves or others, to the disadvantage of others. That is really throwing the cat among the pigeons. 6 weeks later according to Broad, he read Noel Ingram QC’s report and decided to investigate Field.

    It was supposed to be the first time that a MP was being charged for abusing his status as a MP and Minister, for allegedly having advantaged himself at someone else’s expense.

    Don’t forget that Acting Commissioner Steve Long did not invesigate the complaint about the misappropriation of Helen Clark’s Leader’s funds. Worse still, they misrepresented the situation, That in my book was preventing and defeating the course of justice.

    This prima facie evidence is all before the Select Committee hearing the submissions on the EFB.

    Crime statistics are easy to manipulate. Ist Rule: “Don’t acknowledge and never, never investigate”.

    How many allegations of Corruption by those in the Service of the Crown have never been investigated by the Police? A dozen? Enough to keep us at the top of the world’s Transparency Stakes as being the least corrupt Nation in the World!

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  46. RRM (9,924 comments) says:

    The new prisons that have been (or are being) built recently are very much prisons, nevertheless they are designed to be the kind of place that improves its inmates and motivates them to get on with an honest living.

    Overseas experiences of countries that have operated this kind of prison for long enough that significant numbers of inmates have completed their time and been released indicates that they are a pretty successful concept, compared with the status quo.

    Therefore, once these come on-stream and have had a few years to do their thing, we should hopefully start to see some benefits at least in repeat offending. This is perhaps a bit theoretical, but few would deny that the status quo is not working.

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  47. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    Well said uk_kiwi – just the point I was making in my earlier post. We are in danger of breeding a generation that has experienced a complete breakdown of the concepts of boundaries and consequences. We allow young drivers to amass thousands of dollars of traffic fines, only to remit them when they finally draw the attention of the fines enforcement people. The end result – no consequences for the offender. We cling to an outdated notion that “children” under the age of 14 don’t have a sense of criminal repsonibility and can’t be charged, leaving the police powerless to deal with youth offenders, and teaching the youth offenders that their behaviour is fine because we impose no consequences. All power to Ron Mark for trying to change that particular law – today’s 11 year-olds are infinitely more “streetwise” than I was at probably 18!

    Ever since Constable Paul Gilfedder was prosecuted in the late 1970’s for giving a cheeky kid a clip around the ear at a Christchurch shopping mall, the ability of the police to control youth has steadily diminished. Instead of filling Police NHQ with academics, we need a police force that has the support of its political masters to impose a regime similar to New York’s “Broken Windows” – zero tolerance for any street crime – and a judiciary prepared to stand behind the police, not cower in fear of offending the civil libertarians. All that would take is a government (red or blue – doesn’t matter) prepared to make a stand and actually DO SOMETHING to stop crime, not just talk about it. I live in hope!

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  48. gd (2,286 comments) says:

    Inventory2 and others you will never get those responsible for the current situation to own up For 30 years now we have a had a succession of politicans civil servants church leaders and Police chiefs who have not only allowed increasing anti social behaviour but in fact have encouraged it.

    They have refused to support parents in raising their children with good ethical and moral standards. Rather their own low levels of ethics and morals has seen them turn a blind eye.

    Indiviually and collectively they are weak willed. rather than stand up and be counted they cow tow to the lowest common denominator.

    They seek to riducle those of us who hold them to account. They are gutless fetid whimps and deserve the utmost contempt and derision.

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  49. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Overseas experiences of countries that have operated this kind of prison for long enough that significant numbers of inmates have completed their time and been released indicates that they are a pretty successful concept, compared with the status quo.”

    Ron Marks produced stats not long ago showing that crims who had signed up for rehab programs had a greater chance of recidivism than those who didn’t. To hell with that feel good crap. Its a costly PC fad that does nothing to improve the lot of law abiding NZers suffering from crime.

    The best way to combat crime is for a country to promote independence, self reliance and self responsibility. These are all concepts that are anathema to socialists, for if they did indeed promote such ideas, nobody would have any need for them and their dreams of a totalitarian state would be gone by lunch time.

    The root cause of high crime rates is continual socialist/ government sponsored attacks on personal qualities such as independence, self reliance and self responsibility. The root cause of crime is the promotion by government of ideals that attack honesty, morality and civility. The root cause of NZ’s escalating crime rates is socialism.

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  50. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Could someone please notice ratbiter.

    He is getting rather desperate for attention.

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  51. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    Hello Redbaiter! Sonic’s worried about you mate!

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  52. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    Sonic should be worried. With his feeble comprehension skills and without Redbaiter’s kind assistance, he would have even less of a clue about what’s going down. Wish he’d pay his bill tho.

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  53. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    Wow, this thread has pretty much set record time for the right to give up trying to debate the substance of the issue.

    Apart from the insults, the bigotry, and the misogyny, you guys really have nothing, eh?

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  54. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    Sam

    As somebody who spent time working from an IT perspective on Police stats I can tell you that most of the comments here are very poorly informed. Including yours.

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  55. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    Sam

    One more thing. I you (or anybody else on propaganda propagation duties) can secure me an official release from the lifetime confidentiality agreements I signed while doing that work – I’ll happily fill in the blanks that exists between the perception and the reality. Until then – all I say is that the stats are produced by police but published by the Govt of the day.

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  56. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Wow, this thread has pretty much set record time for the right to give up trying to debate the substance of the issue. ”

    What you call debate, others quite correctly perceive as nit picking, smoke screening, obfuscation, manipulation and propaganda. You leftists are like tooth paste tubes. A little bit of pressure and the same old same old extreme left bullshit starts oozing out in the same old stream.

    You deliberately ignore the core reason that NZ is in social meltdown, because to accept it would conflict with every political idea you hold dear. You’re delusional. What’s the point in seriously “debating” with the insane? Your comprehension skills are so stunted as to make you incapable of understanding most of what is written here by non-leftists. What the point in debating when every point you make is willfully or unintentionally misunderstood? Lastly, you’ll never admit your errors or change your thinking. You can’t. Once a person grows to any kind of maturity and still believes in the infantile fantasy of leftist politics he is beyond redemption.

    By all means keep posting your worthless crap here, but don’t whine because it isn’t treated with the respect you think its worth. Other people have different views on that issue. I for one, don’t think its worth a pinch of goat shit.

    —————————————

    Former Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev gave a speech at Columbia University in which he described Soviet Communism as “pure propaganda” that relied on lies to hide the fact that it was falling further and further behind the capitalist West.

    Gorbachev told his audience that by the time he came to power the Soviet system of central planning had devolved to the point where the “[we] were discussing the problem of toothpaste, the problem of detergent, and they had to create a commission of the Politburo to make sure that women have pantyhose.”

    All the while, of course, Soviet officials were telling their own citizens and the rest of the world that it was the capitalist West that was on the verge of collapse. “Of course, that was pure propaganda,” Gorbachev said. “In fact, our country was lagging behind.”

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  57. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    Sam says:

    I ‘feel’ crime is on the decrease.

    Then your feeling is supported by statistics that have been manipulated for political damage limitation purposes. I’d suggest that you are in the minority sam – most ‘feel’ quite the opposite.

    Do you really believe any crime statistics this government allows to be published, let along buy their ‘value added’ explanation of them? Are NZers kinder, more tolerant, harder working, happier and less inclined to break laws today vs a decade ago? Think what you like, because no quality of spin and manipulated statistics is going to convince me otherwise.

    Who’s to blame? … I say the social engineering of the Labour government is largely responsible. We have become a society driven by rights rather than responsibilities, one that now too PC to deal with crime decisively. We reap what we sow. And it aint pretty.

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  58. Inventory2 (10,342 comments) says:

    krazykiwi – agree totally, although the “cancer” probably pre-dates the current Labour government, and has its roots in the 1984-1990 term. Undoubtably though, there has been a significant spread of the “disease” since 1999. And you’re right, it AIN’T pretty at all!

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  59. kiwi in america (2,454 comments) says:

    Crime comparisons with US states similar in size to NZ makes for sobering reading. Take Connecticut (pop 3.7m) – state that has received some of the benefit of the NY ‘Broken Windows’ policy as some surrounding jurisdictions followed NYC.

    The only crime that is higher in the US is murder/homicide. The comparisons – all done based on 2006 stats (US to 31.12.06 and NZ to 30.6.07 so there is a 6 month discrepancy). All rates are rendered as a number of each crime p/100,000 population. US stats from the FBI’s uniform crime stats http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/index.html and NZ from the NZ Stats Dept http://wdmzpub01.stats.govt.nz/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportName=Crime/Fiscal/National/National%20Annual%20Recorded%20Offences%20for%20the%20latest%2010%20Fiscal%20Years

    Murder
    NZ 1.0 vs 3.1 CT
    CT rate 300% higher than NZ

    Rape/Sexual assault
    NZ 50.0 vs CT 18.1
    NZ rate 176% higher than CT

    Serious Assaults – NZ v Aggravated Assaults – US *
    NZ 438.1 vs CT 138.0
    NZ rate 217.5% higher than CT

    Burglary
    NZ 1479.0 vs CT 419.3
    NZ rate 252.7% higher than CT

    Theft of vehicle/Car Conversion
    NZ 530.0 vs 296.4 CT
    NZ rate 78.8% higher than CT

    Minnesota and Oregon have only slightly higher crime rates than CT. In fact of the 8 states with populations between 3.5 and 5 million (aside from murder) the average crime rate of the above categories is between 50 and 100% lower than NZ’s rate.

    * Note that the FBI aggregate more crimes in their definition of aggravated assault (and they included attempted aggrevated assault in this broad definition): “an unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. …this type of assault is usually (but not always) accompanied by the use of a weapon or by other means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. Attempted aggravated assault that involves the display of—or threat to use—a gun, knife, or other weapon is included in this crime category because serious personal injury would likely result if the assault were completed.” The only NZ stats counted in comparison are the Serious Assaults (I have left out minor AND aggravated assaults and robberies were NOT included nor kidnappings)

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  60. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    KK – you really think the politicans influence the stats coming out of the police stats office? you’re dreaming.. you’ve no evidence to support that and moreoever if they were infleucing them wouldn’t they just produce a cut and dry decrease in recorded crimes, rather than the more complicated picture we have?

    The fact is the stats and the analysis of them provided by the Police stats people (which says the increase in recorded crimes is probably due to reporting, not acutal increases) are the authoritative source on the matter.

    Burt – I have no links with the Labour Party
    – if you have evidence that offical stats are being improperly manipulated for political gain, you have a duty to report that to competant authorities – start with your MP, they can voice it in the House with privilege, but of course, you have no such evidence, just bluster.

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  61. roger nome (4,067 comments) says:

    Hey KIA! Good to see you here at yet another crime thread on kiwiblog spouting youre whole ….

    “The USA has 6 times the imprisonment rate of the Europian Union – and similar violent crime statistics. Conclusion – the USA’s policies are clearly superior as not enough scum are being thrown on the social scrap heap in the EU.”

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  62. john (478 comments) says:

    Its a sad reality, that you read statistics on robberies and think( yer right) , and then when you are robbed and you think some arsehole has invaded your family space, you are now just some ripped off govt statistic, and the crim if caught will be treated better than the scum treated you.J
    ps d4j, Dont get banned, easy breathes

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  63. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    Sam

    - if you have evidence that official stats are being improperly manipulated for political gain, you have a duty to report that to competent authorities

    I didn’t say they were manipulated. You inferred that from my statement they are produced by police but published by the Govt of the day. Police take a lot of care in the production of their statistics, accuracy is very important for various reasons.

    My reference to them being published by the Govt of the day was more a reference to the spin that is associated with them. Earlier in this thread I said … if stats dip by 0.00001% the Govt-de-jour claim policy success but if they go up by 4% it’s called a reporting anomaly…
    Which is kinda what you are saying about the difference between real crime levels and reported crime levels.

    Once again, if I were released from confidentially clauses I could talk volumes about it all. Until then – keep talking through a hole in your head pretending that you understand the process and the factors.

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  64. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Roll Up Roll UP , KIA the magician with numbers attempts to prove that NZ is more dangerous than the USA, you’ll gasp at his misleading statistics, swoon as he ignores any data that makes sense then faint in amazement as he goes on to show black is in fact white, cats bark and dogs live under the sea in igloos.

    Don’t think it’s possible, well if he can make anyone believe that Connecticut is a typical state, as are Minnesota and Oregon well he is a magician and no mistake.

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  65. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    burt – you’ve conceded the Police stats and their official analysis are themselves legit and not politically tainted. My analysis is based on actually reading those stats and analysis. In fact, my analysis is nothing more than a paraphrasing of the professionals’.

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  66. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    Sam

    The natural question that arises from this position (increase in reporting) is how do we know this? How would police tell that reporting has increased rather than there has been an increase in the actual number of incidents and/or offences?

    Do Police attach such comments to the numbers? If Police attach such comments are they offered as an opinion or as facts? If they are a facts then what proves the facts? (Facts are only facts when they can be proven – otherwise they are opinion)

    So sure you’re just repeating the professions analysis – no argument. But who are these professionals, who do they work for and where can I check the accuracy of the explanation notes.

    The thing about this that made me laugh a year or two back was when the stats increased and the Minister of Police said it was due to a change of computer system. Now if that were true then any reasonable person could assume that historically crime stats had been under reported OR under the new system they are over reported. However nobody claimed that they are now over reported and it’s a reasonable assumption that a new system will be more accurate than an old system. SO… What did the Minister of Police do? Put some spin around it and moved on.

    I don’t know a lot about the process of police funding but it would seem to me that if stats are part of the funding equation then historic under reporting would add some weight to Police claims that they are under funded and in light of the new revelations immediate increases in funding (perhaps retrospectively) would be in order. Too much to ask ?

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  67. kiwi in america (2,454 comments) says:

    Sonic
    Lets hear your mealy mouthed excuses for each state. CT – mostly urban fringes of New York so more urban than NZ. MN – pretty much the same urban/rural mix with largest city (Minneapolis) not much bigger than Auckland and larger provincial cities similar in size to those in NZ. OR – much the same as MN but on a smaller scale.

    In fact the average crime rates in all 8 states of similar size to NZ (3.5 – 5m) are 50 – 100% lower than NZ (except murder). Just comparing like with like you see.

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  68. baxter (893 comments) says:

    There are many diverse agendas at work in the compilation of Police Statistics…. In this case Auckland crime is down, Wellington and Christchurch is up. You can bet your boots that the Wgtn and ChCh commanders saw all those Winston Cops going to Auckland and held conferences as to how they could get some for their Districts…answer get their Crime Stats up without getting their unsolved Crime up. In the last few weeks for example Christchurch has targetted Boy Racers(And good on them) Hundreds of offences detected and resolved. I’ve no doubt that other targetted Policing has taken place in other categories with similar results (also good work) the result the overall crime rate is up and a need has been demonstrated for an increase in staff…A problem occurs when crime rate is up and resolutions down. That could effect bonuses…Take it from me Police statistics are a con always have been always will be.

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  69. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    KIA

    It’s not good news – sonic just won’t hear it.

    Say Labour are great but … and you might get through!

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  70. john (478 comments) says:

    I see the arsehole Kahui has been releised to party on , ,shit this (possible ) probable kid killer should be labours pin up boy, fuck hes brown (labours base voters) ,shit this (possible) killer needs a woodstock, and SONIC thoughts, Boy 2 kids killed and the shit dragges on under HELEN (BARREN) labours party policy ,(WHENS THE TRIAL) SONIC, and the other leftiest , dont let the shit kahui come near my family , my dogs would eat well, LABOURS PATHETIC , KILLING PAYS , killing kids pays and pays( MR KEY , what are your thoughts on this possible kid killers releise, ,shit a useless liberial labour judge(no threat)???
    im really pissed of , this arse hole has breached bale 3 times , legal system fucked, if im banned tough , im pissed of

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  71. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    “except murder”

    Well who bothers with minor offences like that eh KIA?

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  72. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    From stuff: Another victim of rise in violence

    Shouldn’t the headline be … Normally I wouldn’t report a hammer attack but I thought I would this time.

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  73. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    I was assaulted by a young punk , deep breathe dad , you know the old ticker and the blue gun thugs and all that ,nay, I chased him until the chest went haywire after he bottled me at my front door . He was f##king lucky I didn’t catch the little bastard as he would be dog tucker by now . Oh well , he goes to court Monday , I might go and bash his father in the head with a bottle .

    The Labour Government are role model career criminals setting the putrid example for drop kicks to follow.

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  74. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    c’mon burt. you know this is isolated. crime is on the decrease. i mean… it’s much safer in the city at night than it was 20 years ago. the left tell me so.

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  75. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    Another isolated incident this afternoon.

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  76. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    I wonder if that was the same wellington supermarket that a police dog bit a nutbar with a moseberg pumping lead a few years back , but the pc nanby panby human rights review tribunal paid him for the dog bite ( $60K ??) . He later went onto to kill a lonely old poofter and shoved him in mine shaft , now doing life, happy with the tax payer hand out so he can get on the P .

    How could this country be so unsafe , snap election is the only answer !

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  77. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    Nearly forgot, he runs his gang activities from his cellphone in prison .

    Must write to Mr Egg O’Connor and alert the deluded fool to this ?

    Second thoughts , why bother !!

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  78. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    Based on the untrustworthiness of our MPs a snap election might well be out of the frying pan into the fire.

    in my view there will be no reduction in crime until:-

    (a) we can teach our young (and also plenty of older) folks that their actions have consequences for which they alone must be responsible, and;

    (b) we have a leadership with the guts to abandon PC-ness and start addressing crime at it roots

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  79. Sam Dixon (596 comments) says:

    burt – when the new police system was introduced it was part of the increase in recorded crime (btw, the previous year recorded crime had dropped signficantly 5% or something), but the generally rise in reporting rate is the dominant factor.

    How do we know reporting rates are rising? Victimisation survies show that reporting is rising.

    Also, the number of drug offences (one of the larger catagories) recorded has nothing to do with the number of offences committed (you’re chances of being caught if you commit a drug-related offence are infinitismal, as I’m sure everyone here knows), its all down to the levels of police resources directed towards it.

    Which illustrates a larger point – the more policing there is the more likely crimes will be reported or detected. Police numbers are being sharply increased currently, hence we would expect recorded crime to make up a larger percentage of actual crime (and decrease the acutal level of crime)

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  80. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Sam “(you’re chances of being caught if you commit a drug-related offence are infinitismal, as I’m sure everyone here knows)”

    Funny, whe I was younger that was ‘infintessimal and who gives a f**k anyway?’

    Now I’m all grown up it is ‘Infintessimal, but I’d better not risk it, all the same!”

    sigh.

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  81. Policy Parrot (174 comments) says:

    As I’ve said previously in my own blog – the Government needs to work harder on crime.

    Three main foci:

    – Changing of Bail Criterion. Those on bail should be required to wear a home-detention style bracelet – limiting their movement.

    – Tackling the causes of crime: Most of the time, people know these acts are wrong/illegal/immoral etc. but they still do them. How do we allow people to get to a state of mind such that they would be prepared to throw their lives away in committing an offense?

    – Restore respect for the law. End warnings, let-offs, discharges without conviction – it undermines the law.

    I don’t want to defend the indefensible – Labour has made progress on crime – but this has not been reflected in the statistics – more work simply needs to be done. This isn’t something that a different government could achieve any easier than the current one, without massive loss of freedom on the part of the law-abiding public.

    That law-abiding public should not have to suffer to give minutely harsher punishment to crims.

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  82. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    Sam

    Police numbers are not being sharply increased. The commitment to add 1,000 extra has almost been successful. However compare the number of police per head of population in NZ with the number of police per head of population in some other countries.

    See: http://www.csdp.org/research/hosb1203.pdf (Page 18)

    NZ: Data not available… Interesting.

    So: http://micpohling.wordpress.com/2007/05/18/oecd-crime-statistic-ii/

    Details of all sorts of crimes are here but once again the number of police/population in NZ are absent.

    Interesting – figures like this were once easily found on the web…

    Anyway, if you can find such figures it would be interesting to discuss them.

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  83. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    PP swanks “I don’t want to defend the indefensible – Labour has made progress on crime ”

    Bullshit = Labour have added to crime.e.g. phillip , helen , etc… etc….

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  84. Jimmie (13 comments) says:

    It doesn’t surprise me that property offences are up. A lot of burglaries and thefts are committed by P heads desperate for cash. It’s not unusal for P freaks to have a $1000/week habit. They have to get the money for it from somewhere.

    Domestic Violence stats are a crock as any incidents involving family attended by Policehave to be reported as domestic violence no matter how trivial they are. An example: Mother and teen age son argue about his school work, the neighbour hears raised voices and calls the cops.

    Unless the cops can get permission from the boss at Police Communications they HAVE to report it as Domestic Violence whereas a year ago it would be coded as a public relations job. This applies no matter how serious or trivial the matter. To report it means filling in a 10mm thick Domestic Violence report which can take up to an hour and a half………but thats aanother matter in itself.

    One thing that hinders cops being really effective is the fact that everything they do HAS to be covered with paperwork. For example, a shoplifter takes 5 minutes to arrest and about 1-2 hours to process through and prepare a file for court. And the more serious the case the more paper work.

    Also a lot of offenders who get arrested with overwhelming evidence are encouraged to plead not guilty by Legal Aid lawyersat the first hearing as when the matter goes to the next hearing stage it allows the lawyers to collect addition Legal Aid relating to that particular client. Never mind that it requires the street cop to spend additional hours preparing the court file for that particular stage.

    If a street cop spends more that 40% of their time acutally proactively patrolling they are doing very well. For a lot it would be less than that.

    Another thing that would help is for Police to invest in secure communications. At the moment any crim with a scanner can tell when Police are busy and go do burgs etc. the other end of town.

    Most cops like catching crimm, its the best part of the job, but with the crims comes the paperwork.

    Another example:

    17 years ago when a cop arrested someone this is what they had to do:

    You’re under arrest for theft. You are not obliged to say anything, anything you do say may be given in evidence.

    Now it is:
    You’re under arrest for theft. You have the right to refrain from making a statement and to remain silent. You have the right to consult and instruct a lawyer without delay and in private and before anwering any quiestion. You may exercise this right free of charge under the Police Legal Detention Assisstance Scheme. You are not obliged to say anything, anything you do say will be recorded and given in evidence.
    Do you understand?

    I tell you half the crims fall asleep by the time you finish!!

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  85. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    No wonder legal aid bill is so high for tax payer .

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  86. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    Oh I found this.

    http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_pol_percap-crime-police-per-capita

    And I found this: http://www.police.govt.nz/about/structure.html

    “We have over 10,300 staff, of which 75% are police officers and 25% non-sworn support.”

    SO: 75% of 10,300 = 7,725 Sworn Police.

    7,725 / 4,100,000 = (x 1000) = 1.88

    We are up there with Chile & South Korea !

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  87. Peak Oil Conspiracy (3,326 comments) says:

    D4J:

    No wonder legal aid bill is so high for tax payer .

    Goodness. I do hope you haven’t claimed legal aid for your numerous court appearances?

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  88. dad4justice (8,222 comments) says:

    33 lawyers and about 100 odd letters from senior labour ministers and guess what – mr drunk to much waste oil – the whole lot was a conspiracy to destroy my credibility as a good father . I must get around and put all the names and the sordid story on my blog snog when I get time . I think I might ban myself, as its less hassle having to talk to so many liarbour lickspittles .

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  89. Peak Oil Conspiracy (3,326 comments) says:

    D4J:

    I’m hardly a “liarbour lickspittle” (clearly you haven’t been reading my posts).

    the whole lot was a conspiracy to destroy my credibility as a good father
    Nothing to do with any naughty misdeeds then?

    I must get around and put all the names and the sordid story on my blog snog when I get time
    Look up “defamation” in the dictionary before you get too carried away.

    Look, why not make more constructive contributions to the debate, then people might actually be more sympathetic to your cause?

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  90. krazykiwi (9,186 comments) says:

    burt, that nationmaster.com site is a gold mine.

    there’s some shocking stats in there about nz. something for everyone to energetically refute I’m sure. The ‘Economic Activity’ for kiwi males is an eyeopener.

    Right now, has my welfare cheque arrived? Back to the telly, and was that really my last beer?!?!?

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  91. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    krazykiwi

    Our ‘reported crime rate’ was sky high (60% – Merit with distinction) in 2000, must be close to 100% now.

    Or did it dip during the period that Sam mentioned re: “(btw, the previous year recorded crime had dropped signficantly 5% or something)” [I think he was talking about 2003] .

    Such is life I guess, yes the site is a goldmine. – praise to Google.

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  92. burt (8,271 comments) says:

    krazykiwi

    We can also pat our selves on the back for Unpaid diplomatic parking fines (per capita) (Latest available) by country

    0 per Mill. Well done.

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