NZ First in trouble

December 6th, 2007 at 10:35 am by David Farrar

NZ First has three traditional areas of support.  They are:

  1. Elderly grey power type voters
  2. Provincial and rural conservatives
  3. Maori

The Herald reports today that their support for the Electoral Finance Bill is going to lose them support from two core groups which have supported them previously – Grey Power and the Sensible Sentencing Trust.

First Grey Power:

Grey Power national vice-president Don Chapman said the organisation was apolitical but he would not be surprised if NZ First loyalists within the organisation’s 95,000 members turned away from the party too.

“I would be very, very surprised if [Mr Peters] was supported, because we are very anti that bill, and the implications that the bill would have on us as an organisation.”

Then the Sensible Sentencing Trust:

Garth McVicar – national spokesman for the Sensible Sentencing Trust … said yesterday: “Our stance will certainly be that we don’t see much point in supporting NZ First any further. I would imagine we’ve got thousands more members than [NZ First] have throughout New Zealand, so I think they’re dead in the water, realistically. I think Winston’s just totally lost the plot.”

And this was in response to Winston saying:

Mr Peters responded that [law and order spokesman] Ron Mark and he had worked closely with Mr McVicar for many years and would continue to do so.

NZ First are killed off if they do not make 5% next election, or win Tauranga back (much harder).  They’ve just pissed off their two biggest supporters which will make their job all the harder.

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49 Responses to “NZ First in trouble”

  1. Yvette (2,688 comments) says:

    GO WINSTON !!
    GO WINSTON !!
    GO WINSTON !!

    . . . just bloody go!

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  2. Letterman (184 comments) says:

    At first glance, this is serious indeed for NZ First. However, a cursory glance at the history of NZ politics tells me that the NZ voter is cheaply bought. What price SST and GP in 2008?

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  3. bwakile (757 comments) says:

    You get the feeling that WIN and STON are finally parting company.

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  4. Inventory2 (10,095 comments) says:

    Oh Dear

    How Sad

    Never Mind

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  5. Danyl Mclauchlan (1,065 comments) says:

    The Grey Power issue could be a serious problem for Peters but I’m not sure if the ‘Sensible Sentencing Trust’ really speak for anyone except themselves.

    It didn’t look like he’d make it above 5% last election, but then he did his traditional routine of attending every RSA and Grey Power meeting in the country and scraped through – he’s a robust campaigner and it’d be foolish to write him off.

    And the first post of the day at 10:35? Late night DPF?

    [DPF: A late night with charming company :-)]

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  6. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    I hear there is a hotline in Wellington for political partys that are in denial. Sofar no one has rung.

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  7. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    Ron Mark is definitely fascist.

    He has no solutions. His answer is to ignore all underlying social currents and lock every one up. thats not an answer, thats just the final solution.

    are we being socially manipulated to believe the only answer to societies ills is incarceration.

    That means you!!

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  8. G (86 comments) says:

    It’s the end of the world as we know, and I feel fine

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  9. bobux (349 comments) says:

    Prediction 1. The 2008 budget will contain generous support for the Golden Oldies card – think power discounts, transport subsidies, cheaper medical care. Because Labour really really cares for the elderly, of course.

    Prediction 2. Some ethnic/migrant group will be discovered to be up to no good around September 2008, and only Winston will be brave enough to stand up for the interests of the average Kiwi against these cunning dark-skinned foreigners.

    Prediction 3. Some part of the NZ economy will be under dire threat from offshore interests about the same time, and (once again) we will need to rely on Winston to champion the Kiwi cause.

    However laughable, the latter two cards have reliably worked for him in the past, and Labour have the money to buy him plenty of support from the grey brigade. And they know that thay can’t affort to lose such a faithful lapdog.

    I won’t write Winston off until after the election.

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  10. Inventory2 (10,095 comments) says:

    The biggest problem Winston faces is that his constituency, quite literally, is dying. Having made the elderly a key support base, he can’t escape the sad reality that this is not a group that will grow.

    I sense an attack on Asians very soon.

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  11. Adam Smith (888 comments) says:

    Unfortunately Bobux I think you are correct. This has been his consistent way of operating, he panders to the xenophobia that is rampant in NZ, witness his outrageous attack on the NZ herald the other day and their ‘foreign masters’.

    He would be very at home in the US with those nutters who see black helicopters and the forces of the UN and the monstrous hordes of Zion massing to attack them at every turn. Indeed, I am surprised he has not done that before now. No, of course he is Foreign Minister, and represents us. heaven forfend

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  12. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    “forfend”

    Interesting new word of the week.

    Can’t help thinking its been used out of context.

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  13. Yvette (2,688 comments) says:

    for·fend also fore·fend  (fôr-fnd, fr-)
    tr.v. for·fend·ed, for·fend·ing, for·fends
    1.
    a. To keep or ward off; avert.
    b. Archaic To forbid.
    2. To defend or protect.

    [Middle English forfenden : for-, for- + fenden, to ward off; see fend.]

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  14. david (2,535 comments) says:

    G said
    “It’s the end of the world as we know, and I feel fine”

    Well G now you know how the frog feels just before the water boils

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  15. bobux (349 comments) says:

    forfend \for-FEND\, transitive verb:
    1. a. (Archaic) To prohibit; to forbid. b. To ward off; to prevent; to avert.
    2. To defend; to protect; to preserve.

    ‘Heaven forbid’ would be more common, but forfend makes perfect sense.

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  16. David Baigent (172 comments) says:

    Aoraki

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  17. thehawkreturns (162 comments) says:

    Winston’s repsonse to my EFB email showed he had no idea what it was all about.

    Is this the best NZ can offer?

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  18. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    Actually the elderly is one of the fastest growing demographics in NZ! Seeing as people havent been having babies as much as we used to, and all that.

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  19. virtualmark (1,474 comments) says:

    Winston’s got to know the writing’s on the wall for him & NZ First. You don’t last as long as he has without being canny & being able to see where things are headed.

    Got no personal detailed knowledge of this … but I wonder if any of our “comfortable” embassy postings are due for re-appointment between now & the 2008 election. Think London, Washington, Paris, Ottawa, New York (UN) … maybe Canberra at a push.

    What odds Helen appointing NZ’s first-ranked poodle to a comfortable sinecure so he doesn’t have to face a drubbing in the election?

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  20. Buggerlugs (1,609 comments) says:

    Scratch the surface of NZ First and there’s nothing underneath:
    Peters: Abusive, obnoxious, hunts with the hounds etc…offers nothing of substance in the House
    Peter Brown: Knows lots about seafaring. Fuck all else. I get sick of hearing him stand up with his dull Pommy accent and bang on about merchant shipping (even if the topic is endangered snails)
    Donnelly: Asks lots of patsies. Rest of the time MIA.
    Mark: Candidate for an aneurysm every time he speaks. Angry short man with misdirected angry short man disease
    Paraone: Patsy question asker. MIA
    Stewart: Puts the tri in Strident. MIA
    Woolerton: Main function – to say “Seven in favour”. Does speak well without notes, just has nothing useful to say.

    Make what supporters they have left watch Question Time for a week.

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  21. PaulL (5,872 comments) says:

    Stephen: the elderly the way you and I might define it is the fastest growing group in NZ. But the bit of that group that is growing don’t see themselves as elderly, and certainly won’t be voting for Winston. Saw one of my extended relatives last month, she is 70-some. Two new knees – flash teflon coated ones – and was bouncing around like a jack in the box. Had to go off before the end of the family reunion so that she could play a round of golf. I’m pretty sure she doesn’t see herself as elderly – still got lots of good years in her yet.

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  22. NX (602 comments) says:

    One of the reasons I want Labour to look competitive in 2008 is it’ll put the squeeze on worthless minor parties.
    If Labour looks doomed i.e. 13 points behind, their vote may start to break off to the smaller parties.

    So with that in mind National Party supporters should be quietly pleased when the polls tighten up.

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  23. pseudonymous (70 comments) says:

    My dear old Mum, 83 years old, once a Winnie diehard supporter says GO!
    She also says that his backside will never be too far off the ground that she couldn’t reach it with a swift kick.

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  24. Buggerlugs (1,609 comments) says:

    NX –
    If Labour loses Auckland, they’re fucked. They’ve already lost the provinces, and the Tertiary Education Commission funding cuts to be announced next week will put them further in the shit with small town NZ.

    Expect to see lots and lots of Cabinet Ministers handing out Lottery Grants in provincial NZ next year – get your applications in now!

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  25. kehua (225 comments) says:

    Buggerlugs :
    Queen of the patsy question HRH Barbara Stewart actually smiles and nods as though she`s listening to the answer. Total waste of space!
    Doug Woolerton, bully of aged supporters, sounds and looks like Bob Tizard and about as useless.
    Ron Mark bet you he ends up on labour List oneday.
    Winston, affable,knowledgeable conman polly but totally wrapt up in himself.We will miss the odd humour and delivery of wit, but the price will be worth it .Bye Winston.

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  26. NX (602 comments) says:

    2005 election results
    NZ1st=5.7%
    Greens=5.3%

    Given that since 2005 NZ1st have tired their flag to Labour thats gotta cost them at least 0.8% of their vote.
    And given the Greens support the EFB thats gotta cost them at least 0.4% of their vote.

    All National needs to do & Kevin Rudd style ‘Me-tooing’ & 2008 is their’s for the taking.

    The 2005 election dominated by ideological agreements. 2008 is going to be about getting rid of Helen.

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  27. Rex Widerstrom (5,254 comments) says:

    hinamanu says:

    Ron Mark is definitely fascist.

    That’s a bit unfair, hinamanu. To qualify as a fascist you’ve got to have thought through the various problems that beset society, weighed up the various philosophical approaches to those problems, and arrived at a conscious decision that fascism is the way to go.

    Mark, on the other hand, is a grinning ape (with single digit raised) whose thought process doesn’t go beyond “well, they best the crap out of me or threw me in the brig if I did that in the army, so that’ll do as a policy. Great, now I get another opportunity to reference the fact I was once in the army. People will be impressed”.

    In fact the thought processes of everyone left in that party, bar Winston himself and Brian Donnelly, are as deep as a puddle.

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  28. Buggerlugs (1,609 comments) says:

    kehua -
    agree about Winnie’s wit. has come up with some great oneliners and clever putdowns, but he’s still a great waste of my tax dollars and must be sent packing.
    Come on, aged NZ! Stop fucking voting for him, you doddery old shits!

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  29. NX (602 comments) says:

    If Labour loses Auckland, they’re fucked.

    Labour narrowly lost Auckland in 2005 according to Wikipedia – & that’s with the Christian Pacific Island community unwittingly giving their vote to the godless Clark.

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  30. Al-Girta (61 comments) says:

    “Elderly grey power type voters”

    Aren’t they all elderly? The Green MPs aren’t far off from being able to join Grey Power and that will change the support base even more.

    Ron Mark wanted to ban the Black power but in a MMP compromise NZ First will now settle on banning Grey Power.

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  31. lyndon (330 comments) says:

    Can’t help thinking its been used out of context.

    Nope. Possible source: from the Simpsons, something like this, made me LOL:

    Mr Burns: Me? Out of touch? Heaven forfend!

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  32. dad4justice (7,739 comments) says:

    On no , how sad , Winnie’s party is in the pooh eh ? Oh well, the silver grey fox always has Dr Rice to serve up a platter for survival . Winny is part of the furniture in the beehive – nothing will change .

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  33. roger nome (4,067 comments) says:

    But DPF – NZ first’s support has actually increased since the media spotlight came on the EFB. Also – the centre left’s polling in the Roy Morgan poll is the same now as it was before the EFB and the ramshackle PR fiasco

    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=761

    that was run by you, the laughable “whaleoil” and a guy that has since advocated an armed revolt against the government.

    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?s=armed

    Face it David this anti-EFB campaign is going nowhere fast.

    [DPF: Yeah apart from dominating the headlines of every media organisation for a fortnight, it is a total failure. Any I think you will find NZF's increase came about due to their tough talk ripping into the Greens and Maori Party over the Urewera 17. But hey go on celebrating how popular the EFB is. I doubt you'll fine one minor party MP who agrees with you]

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  34. Johnboy (14,911 comments) says:

    I heard Kim Jong Il made him a SSGP (Shortarsed Samurai of the order of the Green Parrot) on his last trip to the Democratic Republic. Guess he can retire there when he gets the bullet and swap one dear leader for another

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  35. NX (602 comments) says:

    But DPF – NZ first’s support has actually increased since the media spotlight came on the EFB. Also – the centre left’s polling in the Roy Morgan poll is the same now as it was before the EFB and the ramshackle PR fiasco

    “1, 2, 3, 4…… there must be at least over ten here. I can’t wait till they hatch”.

    ^Roger counting his chickens.

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  36. roger nome (4,067 comments) says:

    “Yeah apart from dominating the headlines of every media organisation for a fortnight, it is a total failure.”

    But still no traction in the polls hey David?

    http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=806

    This must be very frustrating considering the $120,000 + that the big money behind your campaign has spent. Too bad bro.

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  37. Inventory2 (10,095 comments) says:

    Speaking of polls roger, the Herald has got one on their politics page – simple choice – Clarkson or Peters. And so far, it’s Bob the Builder on 67% and Winnie the Pooh on 33%. Must be time for a poll rigger!

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  38. Bevan (3,965 comments) says:

    So I take it roger now that sam has been baned, you’ve stepped up to undertake the sub standards advertising position, kiwiblog division?

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  39. Craig Ranapia (1,912 comments) says:

    Well, of course Nome can’t believe anyone would disagree with him on anything as silly as a principle.

    And while the Sub-Standard is spinning polls and trumpeting the stabolity of the left, how many feral Sullen outbursts do you think it will take before the Greens (“flaky extremists”) and Maori Party (“haters and wreckers”) come to the conclusion that the cross-benches under a National-lead minority government might not be so bad a place, after all?

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  40. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    “Bob the Builder on 67%”

    There are a number of national members at this time who could make convincing arguments for my substantial support of the party.

    But remember, anyone could sound good in opposition. If I was a politician I would love to live my entire life in opposition.

    Stick up for the common people, visit the electorate, argue the treasury seats day in and day out in caucus. You can make yourself look incredibly competent and beneficial for the people. I would like to write a novel about a young turk who does exactly that. The political research would be fascinating and it would translate greatly to the screen.

    Also, the money is incredibly good even in opposition.

    I will concede though, I think the present opposition if kept intact will have a wonderful first term. I can already see myself smiling at the 6 o’clock news.

    For international reasons beyond their grasp, I think my smile will go.
    But predictions perhaps from a thread DPF starts on “new year predictions.”

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  41. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    NX Says:

    December 6th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
    If Labour loses Auckland, they’re fucked.

    Labour narrowly lost Auckland in 2005 according to Wikipedia – & that’s with the Christian Pacific Island community unwittingly giving their vote to the godless Clark.”

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  42. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    what a wonderful little post.

    says it all

    Labour has also lost Hamilton.

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  43. The Double Standard (72 comments) says:

    Hmm, I see that roger nome has joined the standardistas link-whoring crew at last. How much are they paying you for the traffic rog?

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  44. Dazzaman (1,123 comments) says:

    Winston going! Yawn

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  45. Put it away (2,888 comments) says:

    I’m very reluctant to write Peters off. He’s been to the edge of the abyss so many times and managed to bullshit his way back. Every time you think he’s exploited his morons as far as he can possibly get away with, he finds new untapped resevoirs of dumb. I don’t think he’s hit “peak stupid” yet.

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  46. Buggerlugs (1,609 comments) says:

    PIA -
    So you’re saying he’ll go for the boy racer vote then?
    Perhaps a page on Bebo…

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  47. PhilBest (5,117 comments) says:

    I suspect Winston has known all along that he could get back in regardless of the taint of what he has been supporting, if he just pulls the plug on it sometime before the next election- perhaps 3 months before. All he needs to do is make a big grandstand to the effect that he can’t support this administration any longer as a matter of “principle”, and hey presto – all of his ah so gullible supporters back in the fold again, the previous 2 years 9 months forgotten.

    Depressing, I know.

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  48. krazykiwi (9,189 comments) says:

    yes, the bauble bear has the allure of something one might find on the side of ones shoe, and something of its stickiness too.

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  49. hinamanu (2,352 comments) says:

    “I’m very reluctant to write Peters off. He’s been to the edge of the abyss so many times and managed to bullshit his way back.”

    Winnies an ambassador now, his pay packet is guaranteed.

    He’s simply trying to save face with his party after deserting them.

    He’s probably hoping NZ first will become defunct. Then he won’t have to be responsible for them any more and continue his over seas junkets and baubles of office. all this looks precarious for him as well. Labour gone , ambassadorship gone. National doesn’t need him. His fence sitting days are over. The Maori party have assured that. National panders to them, not Winston.

    ie; writing… wall… history.

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