Almost 550,000 left over last eight years
Over the last eight years, almost 550,000 NZ residents have left either permanently or long-term. That is over 13% of the population.Of course there has been migration into NZ also, but replacing NZers who leave is not the same as keeping NZers here, or having them return.
Of the 543,748 residents who have left, 391,334 were NZ citizens. And of those entering NZ only 193,557 were NZ citizens. That’s a net loss of almost 200,000 citizens.
Most focus is on the exodus to Australia. This graph shows the flows for the last decade.
9/11 saw the numbers leaving fall off, and then stay constant through 2002 and 2003. But since 2003 the net migration to Australia has gone from 10,000 a year to over 25,000.
This graph shows the cumulative flows to and from Australia since Labour took office.
The equivalent of the total combined populations of Hamilton and Dunedin have moved to Australia.
All data from the External Migration series from Stats NZ.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
If only we could encourage people like Michael Laws to join them…
February 4th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Man, what a saddening bunch of numbers. This is really tragic, apart from all the economic consequences, etc – it’s just sad. What a lot of whanau to be gone.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Whats the comparison to the prior 8 years?
February 4th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Somehow Australia gets by without the EFA. Yet is turns out that in Australia the unions bought the last election outright, at least according to the logic of the EFA opponents.
I’d love to hear the Kiwiblog left explain whether the $8.5 million TV and radio spend by the Unions was okay, or corrupt, or had an excessive influence, and what they think of the legitimacy of the Rudd government as a result.
Anyone?
February 4th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Err, I mean EFA supporters.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Well, thank christ for that – just imagine what the house prices would be if they’d all stayed here !!!!!!
February 4th, 2008 at 11:01 pm
Hey milo http://monkeyswithtypewriter.blogspot.com/2008/01/why-royal-commission.html
here’s my almost mandatory thread-whoring for the topic.
look at the stuff about the CTU here last election…
February 4th, 2008 at 11:04 pm
for brevity see the Herald: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10470598
February 4th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Not healthy.
To my mind the OE is a good thing. Indeed, NZers should be encouraged to go abroad, and to return (as most do) with the unique qualities and new perspectives an OE instills. As a small, isolated nation (that characterisation may or may not be true – the myth is there and very real regardless) ‘overseas’ plays a huge role in crafting national character. Undoubtedly also, the OE contributes crucially to the worldliness of our economy.
As much as I’d like to say they did, I don’t think the figures afore fit into that category.
Clearly, the key driver of outward migration to Australia is not a thirst for overseas experience – for adventure, for the quenching of curiosity, for the quenching of an isolation-imposed deprivation, for ‘experience’. Rather, it is a thirst for money. For a materially better life.
And it comes at New Zealand’s cost. They won’t come back. These are hard-working, decent New Zealanders with ambition New Zealand can’t cater for.
I used to be sceptical of the way National made this a key election plank. Now I’m very concerned indeed, especially given Labour’s complete disregard for the issue. ‘Go join them’.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:08 pm
SPC: the NZ Stats series only goes back to 2007. I’d also be interested in the numbers before that, but I’d have to do my own research for that…
February 4th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
How exactly is National promoting higher wages to retain workers?
February 4th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
R.nz, the thing is that Australia is too similar and too close to NZ. If you go to the UK, good chance you’ll come back. But go to Aus, and why would you. It’s like NZ but better, and close enough that you won’t miss your family too much.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:17 pm
As far as I can tell, what we can do
1. maintain the $1 pa increase in the minimum wage of late (some of the people leaving are unskilled but getting much better pay in Oz).
2. use some of the surplus to increase pay for doctors, nurses and teachers and CRI scientists etc.
3. find a way to be less reliant on the OCR so a lower currency value will increase business profitability and thus allow higher wages for their workers
4. encourage reinvestment by business (depreciation allowances and R and D incentives with the 30 cents in the dollar we now have might be enough, if the dollar declined in value) to improve productivity.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:29 pm
And let’s not forget the approximately 18,000 (eighteen thousand) New Zealand citizens who were murdered before they even took a breath of fresh air in 2007. http://www.abort73.com
February 4th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Where do they all leave from? All over NZ?
Or is Auckland the gateway drug?
This is fascinating… just like a TV people meter, I don’t know anyone to whom these stats personally apply.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Australians know that Labor is the union party. They know the ads were run by the unions. So there’s not really a big problem.
If some rich prick wants to spend big money advertising the fact that a National gov’t will mean bigger profits for him then I have no problem with that.
The problem is, that would have the opposite effect, so he’ll want to hide his involvement.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:31 am
Flip-flop. In the same period (2000-07), there were 657,445 long term ENTRANTS. That is immigrants, long term visitors and – (listen up at the back) New Zealanders returning home after spending time abroad. So overall, the country has made a net gain. Hardly evidence of Kiwis fleeing and foreigners being repelled.
Taking averages (to iron out the troughs and crests which can be used to distort the picture), over the last 8 years, annual long term emmigration has been 67,969. Average annual long term immigration over the same period was 82,181 – an tad over 14,000 new entrants or returning New Zealanders every year.
I can’t see how you can claim that people are fleeing the country in droves, unless you can show that the 82K coming in every year are over-whelmingly new immigrants, not reurning new zealanders.
Over to you …
[DPF: Did you not read my post. 391,334 citizens left and only 193,557 returned.]
February 5th, 2008 at 12:36 am
No wonder everyone is shooting thru when you look at the results in the Mood Of The Nation Thread. NZ is a steadily degenerating amoral socialist cesspool. Anyone who holds them self above such animistic social standards would be crazy to stay here, where, if current trends continue, they’re going to be eventually swamped by ill mannered knuckle dragging barbarians and ignorant half educated philistines.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:45 am
G’day RB. Cheers for your support today on the Silverman thread. Your guts in speaking out against PC social doctrines is really inspiring. I’ll be there supporting you from now on.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:46 am
If only the total combined populations of Hamilton and Dunedin really had moved to Australia.
February 5th, 2008 at 1:14 am
Done a bit more digging. You might want to check out this set of data, which gives the crucial breakdown of immigrants/emmigrants by citizenship, so we can see just how many New Zealand citizens are leaving and returning:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/tables/tourism-and-migration-2006.htm#plt
Look at table 9.01 Permanent and long term migration by citizenship.
Between 2000 and 2008, New Zealand farewelled 335,689 citizens. Over the same period, 170,588 returned. That’s a ration of about 2:1, which, superficially, supports your contention that people are leaving far more rapidly than they are coming back.
The ratio for the 70s, however, is virtually the same – between 1971 and 1979, 146,211 returned, whereas 298,206 left. So though the numbers are greater, the ratio is still 2:1. The implication that Labour is driving people into exile just doesn’t hold up. As far as migration goes, Kiwis are behaving pretty much as Kiwis have always behaved. More go, because it is easier for them to do so, but more come back as well.
February 5th, 2008 at 1:44 am
My daughter and I are two of those who left.
But we are coming back, so there’s no need to panic.
February 5th, 2008 at 1:54 am
“If some rich prick wants to spend big money advertising the fact that a National gov’t will mean bigger profits for him then I have no problem with that.”
Actually the rich pricks spent their money in Labors cause.
February 5th, 2008 at 5:33 am
well personally i left to get away from a gigantic IRD bill.
When on an annual income of 39 000 (quite normal in science) I was asked to pay 36000 dollars in accummulated arrears of student loan by repayments by next monday. Said debt being acquired in qualifying for such a lucrative career.
I consulted Treasury and they told me to respond to market forces otherwise their modelling falls apart. Further they said what NZ needed was less science graduates and more accountants and lawyers and economists. Lots and lots of them.
Additionally they said the increasing non-payment surcharges should ensure Budget surplus into the next century – albeit paper profits that are unlikely to be realised.
The country’s interest and my self-interest coincided…..go west young man.
February 5th, 2008 at 6:48 am
It seems as though those “Kiwis” that Helen was looking to encourage to come back, with all their worldly experience, to a fairer society have decided to go again.And with Cullens endorsement ringing in their ears!
February 5th, 2008 at 6:48 am
The average IQ of both Australia and NZ must be increasing by the day if the late Rob Muldoon’s claim had any substance.
February 5th, 2008 at 7:31 am
The graph seems to show that kicking the last National govt out caused the numbers leaving to drop dramatically.
The graph also seems to show it took 7 years of Labour govt for those numbers to climb back to what they’d been under Shipley.
Voting a National govt in will fix the problem, you say? Really?
[DPF: Actually the numbers leaving kept rising in 2000. Sep 11 2001 is what made a change. And no a change of govt will not change migration numbers. A change of policies may though]
February 5th, 2008 at 7:34 am
And this kind of garbage from our pollies will only increase the trend:
http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/02/turia-on-tagging.html
February 5th, 2008 at 7:42 am
“The graph seems to show that kicking the last National govt out caused the numbers leaving to drop dramatically”.
Aptly named Psycho Milt, your feeble attempt at defending your political masters goes unnoticed.
Your ability to spin could be put to better use. Had you been around in 1912 and played the violin, your services would’ve been required on deck in the Titanic.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Does anyone know the racial breakdown of those leaving? Ill bet a greater proportion of maori are leaving than the general population .
(More than 20% of maori live in ausy and as they are 14 or 15% of the population then they must be getting out at a greater rate than 15% of those leaving)
February 5th, 2008 at 8:31 am
That’s quite a dip after September 11, 2001.
I would imagine this would have been a smooth trend otherwise- NZ wages have been deliberately kept low while the strong unions in Aussie have improved pay and conditions year on year.
Housing is another aspect to this- house prices have skyrocketed here due to lots of eezy credit flooding NZ thanks to our un-regulated foreign-owned banking system…
February 5th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Please, this is like the inflated house prices. The solutions are obvious but unpalatable and unacceptable to those whom exert the strongest influence over our political system.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:41 am
I was just over there last week.
Sydney harbour on Australia day was fantastic, a great atmosphere and a lot of fun, people having a good time.
We have Waitangi day…. yea right… lots of moaning, violence, protesting and being told how wicked and horrible we are for colonizing and terrorizing to indigenous people.
Whatever the truths, lies or otherwise it might help if there was a least some day there wasn’t this bloody sour mood hanging over us.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:57 am
These figures are meaningless without looking at the net gain/loss of immigration as a whole.
People like to move around, always have, always will. I spent 3 years living in the UK but I have been back now for 10 years and lots of my friends have done the same. I really don’t understand why we beat ourselves up about this.
February 5th, 2008 at 9:20 am
I believe that a lot of people leave out of a feeling of despair. Here’s an idea for starters, when people leave to chase higher wages don’t bring in immigrants to replace them – that justs keep the low wages and salaries that makes native born kiwis leave in the first place. Immigration is keeping wages and salaries low and self perpetuating, at least until NZ loses its first world status – then immigration will reduce.
February 5th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Andy get your hand off it young man.
Focus on the topic not your hobby horse or you’ll just piss off potential allies.
February 5th, 2008 at 10:11 am
The emigration figures are very bad news for NZ, bad news for right now and bad news for the long term.
NZ is raisng and training it’s people then exporting them when they are fully productive; this is a massive loss for us and a huge gain for Australia. NZ is now the main immigrant source for Australia. What they get are the perfect immigrants – a trained and motivated people who contribute immediately and integrate completely – there are no significant cultural barriers for NZers in Australia, at least not for pakeha and Maori.
Helen Clark and her supporters think this is OK because, she says, we are getting large immigrant inflows from elsewhere. This is a big and ignorant mistake – a large proportion of the replacement immigrants to NZ come from societies which are very unlike ours, and there are very significant barriers for those immigrants to overcome – principally language and culture (what do immigrants from Communist China know about living in a country and society like ours ?).
So NZ is a big loser – we are losing our ‘best and brightest’, and getting poor quality replacements – it’s lose-lose for us.
Before the recent Federal elections in Australia, it was 100% certain there would be further large tax breaks coming in Australia, for both the Liberals and Labor had further tax reductions as election policies. So although the government changed to Labor, there was no letup in the tax reduction policies in Australia, so a NZer could plan with certainty. Compare that with NZ, where we can bank on tax reductions only if National are elected to office.
This mass emigration is hurting us now and will hurt us more in the future – unless it is heavily reduced our poor-relation status cf. Australia will only worsen – you cannot have a first world society without educated, energetic and ambitious people, and we are losing them in droves., and getting in refugees from the backwoods of Burma to replace them – dumb, just so dumb.
There is no way that Labour and it’s allies in NZ can benefit from these dismal numbers, so expect them to try to shut down the subject whenever it comes up. There is only a gain in this matter for National – but will they actually do something with it like encourage the departing hordes to vote later this year. It’s not hard !
February 5th, 2008 at 10:22 am
Its the global economy guys… Australia is cranking thanks to high prices for raw minerals, and the demand from China and India. With the recession in the US about to bite, dropping demand for imported goods from asia, China will slow, and consequently Australia too will slow down.
But yes, we are all too ready to say bye bye to our best resources and accept “replacements” who will struggle here with language and culture barriers. Why cant we pay skilled and talented people enough to keep them? Why cant we lower taxes to help us be more competitive?
Oh, and media reports of projected house price slump in the UK of around 30-35% this year. Fingers crossed this knock on of the credit crunch will hit NZ in about 6 months or less. May be some homesick kiwis heading home to take up on the opportunity when that occurs
February 5th, 2008 at 11:32 am
And we have the minister of finance telling us to “please join them”
http://nzdebate.blogspot.com/2008/02/please-join-them.html
February 5th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
oohhh I feel a link comin on…..
http://kiwiblogblog.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/farrar-reveals-his-racism/#comment-6424
February 5th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Richgraham
“There is no way that Labour and it’s allies in NZ can benefit from these dismal numbers”
They love the scenerio you have outlined as they are getting Labour voters in and conservative voters out.
Labour don’t care about destroying 150 years of NZ’s cultural heritage
February 5th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
If I myself didn’t have 3 kids at school & I could get a good job offer….
February 5th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
“Your guts in speaking out against PC social doctrines is really inspiring.”
I appreciate the fact that you’re prepared to have a go your self mate. Those leftists hyenas are no big deal really, just pack hunting cowards who can’t do anything other than bay and snarl and crawl on their belly to their leader.
As for the issue of (so called) liberalism, one only needs to see how the words and ideas of (so called) right wingers like Cwaigy are so gratefully used by the left, who enthusiastically embrace such politically confused dimwits and encourage them to go on with their act.
One can then understand the reality that such notions only provide the social beachheads the left requires in order to begin the task of imposing totalitarian and tyrannical rule upon the rest of us.
These self described “liberals” their political ignorance promote promiscuity, gutter language, ill manners and disrespect in the mistaken idea that such attitudes are an integral part of the modern liberal social construct.
The truth is that as society disintegrates in the expected reaction to such events, real liberty is moving further and further from our grasp. I used to think they would one day understand this, but I’m beginning to think the lack of education combined with the gradual dumbing down of the nations overall intellectual status as the wise ones quit the country, might mean that NZ’s fate is already sealed.
In fact, there’s plenty of global precedents for such social destruction. All engineered by the same political sector, namely the fucked in the head half educated uncivilized power seeking left.
February 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Readbaiter. Defending the right to be a bigot since … well who knows. Probably before he immigrated to NZ anyhow.
February 5th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Hmmm… apropos of Red’s comment and the thread a while back on classic liberals vs conservatives and various discussions on the failure of MMP to lead to much diversity in politics… I can’t help speculating how much better it might be for the right in NZ if there were a Conservative Party and a Liberal Party (with both espousing the traditional values associated with parties of those names).
Of course both names have been used before (by Ross Meurant and Gilbery Myles respectively) but there’s no reason they can’t be revived. The difficulty would be convincing National to pack up the tent
But really, the existence of a “broad church” right (and left, for that matter) party under MMP is really an anachronism.
February 5th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
The late Norman Macrae foresaw just this sort of thing – the flight of the more-mobile and better-equipped-for-lifers. The money quote:
“Areas which vote to have high taxes will be residually inhabited mainly by dummies: by people who vote to have tax money spent on themselves, without actually earning enough money to be taxed.”
And then there’s dear old David Warren:
“The intention of such governments is not to run the economy into the ground, nor even to destroy the moral order through experiments in social engineering. That is simply the natural consequence of their way of doing business.”
February 5th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Rex, as reluctant as I am to talk about the meaning of liberal, what is starkly evident is that “liberal” does not necessarily mean the same as libertine, as apparently so many writers here mistakenly think.
“Liberal” just does not mean tolerant of any damn thing, otherwise the same people who are cheering for the Hollywood pornographers etc would be cheering for pedophilia. They’re not thankfully, proof in itself that even the self described social liberals recognise that tolerance is not an open ended concept.
February 5th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Rex
I’m not sure I’d describe Mr Meurant as a conservative, even if he did establish a Conservative Party.
He merely adopted a label, rather like the current Labour Party leadership none of whom are what we might call working class people.
Mr Meurant’s political views were not sufficiently coherent or rational to be called conservative.
February 5th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Thanks for the quotes Waymad. Both great, but I especially liked the one by Norman Macrae. Couldn’t help but think of dipshits like PhilU and Gnome as I read it. So true. So true.
The real pity is that NZ was once such a great little country. ..and its all gone. For what?? So a collection of knuckle dragging power crazed dumbfuck socialists can live out their irrational utopian delusion.
February 5th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
[DPF: Did you not read my post. 391,334 citizens left and only 193,557 returned.]
Fair ’nuff, I didn’t digest that part. Note the time of posting. However, the point made in my second post is still valid – that the ration of quitters to returners hasn’t changed significantly in over 30 years. Two Kiwis leave, one returns. The growth of the numbers going each way is more likely due to the affordability of foreign adventuring, rather than the supposed malevolence of the Clark government.
I could claim the increase in figures demonstrates that kiwis are better off under labour and hence more mobile – but that would be specious, just like suggesting that Labour is driving people out of the country.