Obama closer but not quite there
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:21 am by David FarrarAccording to Real Clear Politics, Obama now has 1,957 delegates – just 68 short of the magic 2,025. Obama picked up 42 from Oregon and Kentucky to 53 for Clinton.
86 delegates remain from two states and a territory. Clinton will probably pick up more than Obama due to Puerto Rico, but assume 50/50 then that puts Obama to exactly 2,000.
So he needs 25 more super delegates after that. There are 209 yet to pledge so that should not be an issue. His campaign team will deserve to be sacked if on the day of the last primary (3 June) he can not announce two dozen super delegates. And finally it will be over.
Related posts:
- Finally the end in sight for Obama
- Obama wins South Carolina by
- McCain and Obama win
- Obama in the lead
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:49 am
Too bad John McCain is going to be the next president of the United States.
November 2008 is looking like a good month for positive news with the confirmation that John Key is New Zealand’s Prime Minister and that John McCain will take up the position of 44th president of the United States of America.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 4:00 am
I think that the primary race in the US has been an incredible wast of resources, money and time.
The 3 candidates it has produced are all questionable.
In a country the size of America you have to wonder if this is the best they have.
I do not like Hillary, as I don’t think she can not be trusted,
McCain’s vision for the future the other day made me seriously wonder about his political judgement
and Obama although an eloquent speaker, also lacks judgement given his close association with Rev Wright.
Helen will soon be out of a job – perhaps she could fill in for them, until they can find a suitable replacement.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 5:59 am
I wonder how McCain will handle the stresses of the election campaign; a few fumbles will swing voters to the younger man.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 6:07 am
McCain will be just fine. He’s been running in and winning races for 22 years. But I wonder if it will be over after the convention. I doubt Hillary will gracefully accept her political death; her supporters certainly won’t. I think we’ll be making and eating popcorn for months to come as the Democrats disintegrate.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 6:21 am
Obama has seen off the formidable Clinton campaign, he is fully battle tested and has run a first rate campaign and raised a bucket load of money. Unless there is something truly shocking not yet known about his past (and the Clinton’s would surely have revealed it) then he will be the next President of the United States. So the Clintons has at least done one service ensuring that Obama is fully battle tested for a big fight against the Republicans. And the Republicans will only have two months to turn the enormous bounce Obama will get from the Democratic convention. He will bolt in taking states especially from the mid West, though he might not win Ohio nor Florida but he will get everything West of the Mississippi except perhaps Nevada and Arizona.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 6:25 am
On paper that would seem the case Tim. However you underestimate the conservative nature of the ‘merican voter, they’ll swing to McCain to a man because in the current geopolitical climate. ‘merica is not ready for a black, Islamic associated President. Full stop.
You can opine as much as you want but this is the crux of the matter.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 6:35 am
I still think Clinton will get it.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 6:46 am
You can always hope Lee….
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 6:50 am
So part two of my December – January four-part prediction edges closer to fruition.
Still to come, Huckabee to be named on the ticket, and McCain to die in office, leaving the real candidate in office.
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2008/01/mccain_wins_florida.html#comment-401507
Unfortunately, I agree with Democracymum, all candidates have poor judgement and I’d go further and say that none are honest and regardless of who wins, the American people and its international reputation will be the poorer for it.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 7:32 am
Don’t know if anyone saw the McGlochlin(sic) group on TV the other night. Interesting discussion on how the democrats allocate delegates. Obama has managed to lose all the big states but still end up ahead. Not a good indicator of success come November. His only hope – keep linking McCain and Bush (which he is already doing) and hope that the anger over the war is enough to carry him through. I have my doubts.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 8:41 am
The Dimocrats.
Going to pieces so fast people are getting hit by schrapnal.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 8:44 am
For all the ‘experts’ on the American elections that comment here you seem to miss the obvious. Forget your ‘geopolitical climate ‘ or ‘unpopular war’ the number 1 priority (both here and in the US) is the economy and right now America is in a big, big, hole.
And when the economy is stuffed people change governments. It will happen here and it will happen in the US.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 8:49 am
Yeah, I’d normally agree but would NZ go for a gummint lead by the Maori Party? Lets be honest – not a chance in hell.
Thats what we are talking about with Obama. It seems harsh and un PC but it is a hard truth. The middle class voters arent keen on that much of a change.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 8:52 am
Also the fun aspect that most people who see their country in an ecomic hole are not too keen of voting for a party whose answer is to increase taxs and if that doesn’t work, to increase them again.
Don’t underestimated the value of having a president who has served either.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 8:57 am
Expat – what do you mean ‘lead by the Maori Party’, are you saying the US voters won’t elect a black man?
Current polls are about 50/50 McCain/Obama which is typical of the Democrat/Republican split in the US. What wins you an election in the US is motivating your supporters to actually go out and vote for you.
Obama has no problem motivating his base, not sure you can say the same about McCain.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 9:00 am
After consulting the Magic 8 ball. It seems that John McCain will “definitely” be the next president of the United States. Praise be to the Magic 8 ball.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 9:00 am
Hail M8ball!
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 9:06 am
McCain is a veteran. Obama is a peacenik. Nuff said.
Really America’s present economic troubles are a hangover from the Clinton era. The Republicans are going to need more than 8 years to fix them sadly. McCain will get that time though.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 9:32 am
pushmepullu – America’s economic problems are a result of too much cheap money being injected into the economy and that coming back to bite them. Also the Bush tax cuts, government over spending and billions of dollars spent on a pointless war – nothing to do with Clinton.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 9:37 am
OECD Rank: November 2008 is looking like a good month for positive news with the confirmation that John Key is New Zealand’s Prime Minister and that John McCain will take up the position of 44th president of the United States of America.
Year of the John? If that happens it’ll certainly give the lefties the shits.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 10:13 am
I think McCain’s suggestion that it would be exciting if they left the Democratic Convention and still didn’t know who the nominee was it a good one!
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 10:31 am
I’ve been well aware of the messianic nature of the Obama phenomena – but this takes the cake for socialist realism artwork:
Just how insane is this going to get? And could it actually backfire, even with so many factors in favour of the Democrats?
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 am
pushmepullu:
I have agree with most of what Rocket Boy said. Americas woes have been caused by the current establishment.
Bush campaigned in 99 on a platform of *humble* foreign policy (he was complaining about Clintons interventions and missile strikes) and also on a reduction of govt (including spending).
Bush somehow morphed into what he is today and he aint conservative (esp about spending) and his foreign policy is not humble.
There are alot of conservative GOP’ers who are angry (like Ron Paul)
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 10:49 am
djp I am not saying Bush has not made some mistakes but ultimately the solution to America (and the world’s) economic problems is not in appeasement and high spending, it is in low taxes and a vigorous prosecution of the war on terror.
That is why when Americans go to the polls in November, outside of the liberal-elite dominated East and West coasts, they will pick McCain.
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 10:53 am
Ron Paul not exactly a conservative GOP’er djp…
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 10:56 am
Okay – let’s try this again
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 11:02 am
It’s about time the race was over, it’s been unofficially over since North Carolina and Clinton has been behind the eight ball for a lot longer than that!
I expect a tough race for both Obama and McCain in November, any assumption that McCain has it in the bag is wrong however as he has less money and less charisma and appeal, but Obama obviously has his problems…
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
Sigh
I have tried to submit a small image of a poster using the “image” tag – works perfectly well at the test site via Firefox. Does Kiwiblog have this facility switched off for commentators?
I see that it will not even accept the basic “” set
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 11:58 am
To follow on from Tom Hunter above – off-topic sorry… It would be awesome if there was a section on the site which showed all the little codes for ‘bold,’ ‘italics,’ ‘quoting,’ and embedding links in text so the less tech-savvy posters could also format comments in the stylish way that the more tech-savvy posters can achieve. it would assuage my jealousy somewhat
MrHappy
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
For you MrHappy:
Vote:<blockquote>quote</blockquote>
<b>bold</b>
<i>italics</i>
<a href=”link-address-here”>Link-name-here</a>
May 22nd, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Mr Happy
You might also like this site – you can try out all this stuff in the privacy of your own universe – without having to endure all the snickering
http://www.w3schools.com/tags/tryit.asp?filename=tryhtml_image_link
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Mr Happy
You will probably also enjoy this. It’s a test site where one can experiment without listening to the geeks snickering!!!
http://www.w3schools.com/tags/tryit.asp?filename=tryhtml_image_link
Vote:May 22nd, 2008 at 6:39 pm
tim barclay
Clinton was only able to hit Obama hard on a few issues because so much of her platform and positioning was pretty liberal and indistinguishable from his. We got a sneak preview of the real race this week where McCain has been able to expose Obama’s considerable weakness on national security. Obama’s people have been attempting to walkback his unconditional offer to meet the world’s rogues and Obama now splits hairs by saying “well of course we’ll have to prepare before talking” or “I might not talk to Ahmijinadad because he’s not really the head of Iran” and “no I’m not walking back” while Biden, Richardson and a host of media surrogates all are saying “what the Messiah really meant was…”. All the while McCain is resolute on this issue and each day finds a new wrinkle in Obama’s peacenik fascade (eg saying he’ll meeting Castro without conditions and lifting the Cuban embargo). NZers have little idea how poorly all this plays in the US away from the Manhatten and Hollywood elites. Now if that’s what you call battle hardened then all I can say is bring it on. The McCain camp and the unattached right leaning 527′s have not even begun to really work Obama over. Remember his appalling debate in PA when 2 left leaning ABC journos asked him but a few hard questions and he was a blathering mess. Wait until he gets asked if he still supports driver’s licences for illegals (opposed by 75% of Americans) or starts to get the hard questions on his tax increase policies (name a Presidential candidate who has won promising tax increases). All it will take is one parishioner from Trinity to tell the media, Obama was there the day Wright said “Goddam America” and he’s on the back foot again without the right running a single ad. There’s a veritable treasure trove of ads in the wings and Obama keeps offering juicy new material each week. Just days ago in Oregon he was pandering to the latte sipping liberals of Portland lecturing Americans on having to give up there SUVs, set their aircon higher and eat different food because – wait for it, that’s what other countries would expect of America. That one little riff will be the subject of an ad that will play relentlessly in the rustbelt middle America states that he must win to get 270 EC votes.
Obama’s tin ear to working class whites, exacerbated by his bitter comments pronounced from millionaire row in San Francisco, and his troublesome hard left associations that he only disavows after months of equivocating, are not going to play well in the battleground states on OH and PA. You really ought to check the exit polling from TX, OH, PA, WV, OR and KY. Clinton’s blue collar older whites and loyal feminists are not going to all switch to Obama. He’ll bring most of them on board but the numbers of Dems saying they intend to crossover vote for McCain are the highest in polling history. He’s so far behind in FL that its a hopeless case. McCain is polling competitively in MI and MN, even in MA and NJ (although he’s got no show) and that’s before he picks someone like MN Governor Pawlenty. Obama’s silliness on Iran and the plethera of Israel hating advisors he’s had to throw under the bus means his polling amongst Jews (who reliably vote Democrat) is dwindling and that is BEFORE Joe Leiberman is a star speaker at the GOP Convention. Leiberman has announced he’s supporting McCain and his article in yesterdays WSJ evisorated Obama’s appeasement first foreign policy as a betrayal of the old Democrats like Truman, JFK and LBJ who were all hawks compared to Obama. Add in a massively energised conservative base who will turn out in droves in CA to amend their State Constitution to reassert the power of the people ursurped by the CA Supreme Court on the gay marriage issue and suddenly Obama is having to play defence in one state he should never have to set foot in. There aren’t enough red states that he can flip to make up the difference – NV maybe, CO probably, NM likely, IA likely but add up all of them and that’s OH. FL is 27 votes – even if he squeaks in in PA but loses WV, NH and MI he’s done.
Dick Morris sums it up neatly. The Dems have nominated a candidate who cant win when their party is in a cant lose position and the GOP have nominated a candidate who can win when his party is in a cant win position.
Vote:May 23rd, 2008 at 6:01 am
And yet the Democrats keep winning against the Republicans in safe seats that have had big Republican majorities. My view is Obama is rewriting the script, America is seeking change, McCain (who I could support) represents the old white men establishment who have run America for forever. America is changing, the old guard is falling away and I predict we will in the future see more racially diverse Presidents and legislators. Incidentally just how much money has McCain raised. I see he is taking the poor man’s option and going for state funding but Obama will out fund that 3 to 4 times.
Vote:May 23rd, 2008 at 8:05 am
Tim
Fully aware of the special election losses and of McCain’s headwind. You are fully aware of the extent of split ticket voting in the US. Voters on both sides of the isle do it. The vote for President is much more personal and with less party affiliation emotional ties than in NZ simply because splitting the ticket is so common – hence the term Reagan Democrats. McCain’s maverick streak and well publicised runs against his own party and Bush means he is less tied to Bush’s poor polling numbers. Because he has long appealed to Independents (indeed it is Indies in NH and SC that won him both states) and his long history of bi-partisan legislating, McCain can genuinely cross party lines this year. He is conservative but not in a doctrinnaire and ideological way. This makes it easier for disgruntled Clinton supporters to crossover (as the polls indicate they plan on doing in record numbers). Clinton by the way has given every indication in media comments the last day or two that she will fight to have ALL FL and MI delegates seated and for the popular vote to be the primary consideration for super delegates and will litigate this at the convention if she needs to. Remember super delegates do not actually vote until the convention – they merely announce who they hae pledged to. Nothing stops them from changing their pledge.
McCain has said he will take Federal funds only if Obama will. There is no way he’ll hog tie himself if his opponent won’t. Obama has raised a ton of cash but what the mainsteam media reports dont tell you is three critical things on fundraising:
Vote:1. Obama’s rate of cash raising is falling each month – a sign his base is getting tapped out meanwhile McCain’s keep rising – a sign he is gradually making the sale with movement conservatives who’ve kept their chequebooks shut.
2. Obama is spending like a drunken sailor whereas McCain is spending very little. The cash on hand gap between the two camps is much closer.
3. Democrats are donating to the Obama Clinton primary in record numbers and as a consequence, the DNC has a pitiful $4m on hand. The RNC has 10 times the cash on hand. The lengthy bruising Democrat primary race is greatly exhausting the pockets of people willing to donate to them. Obama will still go into the General with plenty of cash but his margin over McCain by the end of the conventions will not be big enough to make that much of a difference. The DNC has major catch up to do from a financially exhausted base. Even though the Congressional winds are very much in Democrats favour this cycle, the RNC will have enough cash to fight its key fights and not rob McCain in the Presidential race.
May 23rd, 2008 at 11:30 am
Kiwi in America, what makes you think the Congressional winds are in the Democrats favour? Outside of liberal-elitevania in New York and California, Americans are very sceptical about high-taxing, surrender-loving Democrat politicians. Did you know that Congress has the lowest approval ratings of ANY branch of government? That’s something the liberal media doesn’t want you to know
Vote:May 23rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
The loss of House seats that Republicans held for years or by 10% + margins in 3 special elections is some indication. Congress’ approval rating is very low but there has been little time for the voters to tie poor legislative performance to the Dem’s who’ve only been in charge 18 months. Bush’s low approval ratings don’t help. The winds are not as strong as the MSM make out but many reputable commentators on the right admit it will be a tough cycle. McCain, much as I personally was not thrilledabout nor did I vote for him (I was a Romney supporter), is almost uniquely qualified to prosper despite the difficulties the Congressional GOP face.
Vote: