Final 2008 Election Results

November 22nd, 2008 at 2:09 pm by David Farrar

The Chief Electoral Officer has published the final results of the 2008 election.

National has lost one seat to the Greens, so Cam Calder becomes MP in Waiting and Kennedy Graham joins the House. He is the brother of Sir Douglas Graham, and this may be a record for siblings to represent different parties.

Those who followed my advice on iPredict that the National to lose one seat stock was under-priced, should be happy today.

The final (and provisional) results are:

  1. National 44.93% (45.45%) – 58 (59) seats
  2. Labour 33.99% (33.77%) – 43 seats
  3. Green 6.72% (6.43%) – 9 (8) seats
  4. ACT 3.65% (3.72%) – 5 seats
  5. Maori 2.39% (2.24%) – 3 seats + 2 overhang
  6. Progressive 0.91% (0.93%) – 1 seat
  7. United Future 0.87% (0.89%) – 1 seats
  8. NZ First 4.07% (4.21%) – 0 seats

There were 2,103,842 votes counted on election night the final count is 2,356,536 – so an increase of 252,694.

Lots more analysis to come.

UPDATE: Have just applied the St Lague formula. National was at massive risk of losing a second seat as they hold Spot 120.  Labour are in 121. National’s quotient is 9160.0 while Labour’s quotient is 9159.5.

If Labour had 40 more voters turn up (that is less than one voter per seat), then Damien O’Connor would be back in Parliament and Aaron Gilmore would have missed out. Or if 22 people who voted National had voted Labour, then Labour would have 44 seats and National 57.

That is about as close as it can get. National could still pass laws with either Maori or ACT on 57 or 58 seats, so wouldn’t have changed the dynamics.

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39 Responses to “Final 2008 Election Results”

  1. micheal_warren (19 comments) says:

    great to see Jonathan Young win New Plymouth by 105 votes!

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  2. davidp (3,540 comments) says:

    Graham is 62. Why are the Green MPs so old? If Labour’s defining moments were the Springbok tour in 1981 (Clark debate) or a minority government in 1978 (Anderton debate), then the Greens seem to have defined themselves in the 1960s.

    NZ needs to look to the future. Nostalgia for hippies and opposition to the Vietnam War is just sad, IMHO.

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  3. jafapete (766 comments) says:

    My 6 November prediction:

    “I’m picking National 45%, Labour 36%, Greens 10%, ACT 2.5% (with Epsom), NZ First 2.5% (without Tauranga), Maori (3% with 7 seats), others 1% (with Ohariu and Wigram).”

    So, I was 0.07% out for National, 2.01% out for Labour; a whopping 3.28% out for Greens; 1.15% out for ACT; 1.57% out for NZFirst; 0.61% but 2 seats out for the Maori Party. Not too bad, but not one of my best efforts. Should have picked that more Labour voters would stay home. But what went wrong with the Green vote?

    PS That’s right davidp, just look to the future and never mind the past. Everything will be alright. There’s nothing to be learnt looking backwards.

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  4. Barnsley Bill (978 comments) says:

    O’connor out by 40 votes nationwide.. What is the bet that labour ask for selected recounts around the country to get another one back in?

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  5. Madeleine (230 comments) says:

    What is withoverseas kiwi’s and their nostalgically voting Green? Its all right for them, they don’t have to live here.

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  6. David Farrar (1,858 comments) says:

    They won’t for O’Connor.

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  7. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    It is quite nice to see the Greens pick up the extra seat.
    @jafapete-
    Agreed, it is quite important to remember lessons from the past.

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  8. Camryn (550 comments) says:

    Greens were pretty active in London and probably got a lot of votes there. I agree that it’s incongruous that people move to one of the most horrible environments in the world for its economic benefits and then vote Green for home, but in their mind they’re probably thinking that they’re preserving NZ for whenever it is they get sick of London. Not logical to me but I can understand why they think they’re being logical.

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  9. oranjemakker (60 comments) says:

    the link above still showing the preliminary results as is http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/ . Have refreshed pages etc. but still not working. Anyone else having this problem?

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  10. Johnboy (15,047 comments) says:

    If Doug’s his brother at least he can’t be another commo/greeny.

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  11. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “What is withoverseas kiwi’s and their nostalgically voting Green?”

    I’m not convinced its “nostalgic’. I would suggest that it may be that many are recent graduates, and having just left uni and on their first big OE, are still suffering from the effects of the indoctrination programs that pass as university courses. When they gain more life experience, and are able to think rationally rather than the way their ivory tower Eco-Marxist professors forced them to, they will vote more sensibly.

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  12. Brad H (37 comments) says:

    If the specials were the election results (i.e. the Nov 8 votes didn’t count) the make up of the government could be quite different.

    National polled 4.84% lower, Labour 2.05% higher, Greens 2.70% higher, Maori 1.38% higher. It is interesting to note that those who casts specials – i.e. those away from home, or overseas appear to be more left leaning then the majority of the country.

    After running some more calculations this is how the results would of ended up if only specials counted. As you can see the overhang is gone. And the Maori Party becomes the King Maker. We could have had a Labour Government back.

    Party name | Party Votes won | Party seat entitlement | Actual Result
    Act New Zealand | 3.04% | 4 | 5
    The Greens | 9.13% | 12 | 9
    Jim Anderton’s Progressive | 0.68% | 1 |1
    Maori Party | 3.62% | 5 | 5
    New Zealand Labour Party | 35.82% | 45 | 43
    New Zealand National Party | 40.61% | 52 | 58
    United Future New Zealand | 0.74% | 1 | 1
    Totals | 93.64% | 120 | 122

    National Government: Nat 52 + Act 4 + UF 1 + Maori 5 = 62/120.
    Labour Government: Lab 45 + Prog 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 63/120

    The funny thing is the special votes seem to more accurately reflect the polls in the lead up to the election then the actual election result.

    The tables have stuffed up on this reply but detailed analysis is here: http://www.brad.net.nz/blog/2008/11/final-nz-election-results/

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  13. iago (19 comments) says:

    Quite a few people got caught out on Ipredict with this. Thanks Guys :)

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  14. Southern Raider (1,603 comments) says:

    Just what the country needs in a crisis, another loopy Green.

    Can’t we trade in the whole Green Party and get something usefull?

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  15. Rodders (1,790 comments) says:

    elections.org.nz states
    “You may apply to the Chief District Court Judge for a recount of party votes in every electorate.
    The application must be: made within three working days of the official results in all electoral districts being declared, and
    accompanied by a deposit of $90,000 (GST inclusive)”.

    However, another page states
    “After the declaration of the official results electorate candidates can apply to a District Court Judge for a recount of the electorate vote. Only party secretaries may apply for a recount of the party vote. The application to the Court must be:
    made within three working days of the declaration of the result, and
    accompanied by a deposit of $1,000 (inclusive of GST). “

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  16. s.russell (1,565 comments) says:

    Quite a few people got caught out on Ipredict with this.

    Yes indeed. I always thought the Ipredict market had got it WAAAY wrong (as I posted here some time ago).

    I am kinda (but only kinda) disappointed Labour didn’t get those 40 more votes – because I would have made $3000 on IPredict! I did short sell the National No Change option for a small profit however.

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  17. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    @Southern Raider-
    Because someone who has taught international politics and international law at the School of Law, Canterbury and Victoria University knows nothing about the world of politics right? I mean it is not like his previous work experiences relate to politics at all. It is pretty loopy trying to assert that experience in the UN, NGO’s and as a diplomat would assist him in his new job.

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  18. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    @Redbaiter-
    I am not sure which university you went to, or are referring to but my courses are very open to different forms of thought. As long as you can provide adequate sources and prevent your views in an academic manner you will pass. In fact where I study they hold the freedom of speech and thought very highly indeed.

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  19. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “As long as you can provide adequate sources and prevent (sic) your views in an academic manner you will pass. In fact where I study they hold the freedom of speech and thought very highly indeed.”

    So all of the organisations that have sprung up over the last few years that advocate a greater degree of academic freedom in universities are invalid. All of the Marxist/ Stalinist language I read in any university code of behaviour I am mistaken about. That students know so much about biodiversity and social justice and nothing of the American War of Independence is quite insignificant. Pull the other one tiger. Its got bells on it.

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  20. wikiriwhis business (3,883 comments) says:

    For me, the biggest analsis of this election is that the voting public didn’t take for granted that Labour would lose

    They made damn sure they would!

    And Labour supporters helped by staying home and insuring labour would lose.

    I have to say I was a lil worried seeing so many Labour party supporters supporting their cause during the campaign
    I also had to worry they were supporting an almost despot govt to getting it returned.

    I thought they were very naieve but I’m not so sure.

    But even the Labour govt ignored Sth Akld couldn’t help this time.

    If National can convince Sth Akld they have a voice that is heard, they can win them.

    Michael Jones and Inga will will be great influences in ensuring a swap of allegiences.

    Thats the Polynesians though. Can’t do anything bout Maori. They’ll have us all in a police state as long as they get what they want. They’re where civil war would come from.

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  21. wikiriwhis business (3,883 comments) says:

    “Should have picked that more Labour voters would stay home. But what went wrong with the Green vote?”

    The q surely is, why don’t Labour Voters skirt and vote green.

    Obviously, they see no difference in rhetoric or manifesto’s and ignor one as much as the other.

    Helen and Sue Bradford are both a shame to them.

    Thats a powerful truth to know!

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  22. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,812 comments) says:

    Just what the country needs, another bludging Green MP warming the opposition benches for three years.

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  23. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,812 comments) says:

    jafapete says on November 22nd, 2008 at 2:51 pm:

    But what went wrong with the Green vote?

    The New Zealand voters decided that they weren’t stupid enough to vote for a crazy, fringe party that wants to destroy the New Zealand economy and at its heart is an anti-human party. i.e. the Green party is not all about the children.

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  24. Glutaemus Maximus (2,207 comments) says:

    The Greens are simply a ‘Trojan Horse’ for the real Left!

    The enviroment is doing just fine. Strangely enough climates do change. And always have done.

    The whole deal is bizzare due to special interests.

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  25. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,812 comments) says:

    A new Green initiative coming to a tap near you: Urine passes Nasa taste test

    That’s natural goodness right there. ;-)

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  26. Grant Michael McKenna (1,156 comments) says:

    As to the value of the Greens; a compass which points the wrong way is useful, for it shows you which is the wrong way.

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  27. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    DPF said a while ago that very very few of the specials were overseas votes – 30,000 out of 280,000 I think?

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  28. stephen (4,063 comments) says:

    Stoked, I found it:

    # David Farrar (1047) Vote: Add rating 2 Subtract rating 3 Says:
    November 14th, 2008 at 8:35 am

    Remember overseas votes are only 32,000 of the 240,000

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2008/11/specials_scenarios.html

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  29. freethinker (681 comments) says:

    I wonder if there will be any electorial petitions based on MPs overspending?

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  30. Craig Ranapia (1,912 comments) says:

    O’connor out by 40 votes nationwide.. What is the bet that labour ask for selected recounts around the country to get another one back in?

    I don’t think so. With all due respect to Mr. O’Connor, do you really think the Labour Party wants to be seen going to the High Court (in effect) questioning the competence or even integrity of election officials to get his arse back on the backbenches. In O’Connor’s position, I’d be gutted. But in Phil Goff’s I’d be very worried about the potential blowback of being seen as the leader of a pack of sore losers who’d rather litigate the election, than roll up their sleeves and start addressing the very very deep shit this country is in.

    There does come a point where you just have to say losing a race by a thousandth of a second is still a loss. So suck it up and move on.

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  31. Ross Miller (1,671 comments) says:

    An interesting side-bar. Looking at the Party Vote in the seven Maori seats and National came third behind Labour and the Maori Party with 10,279 and NZF fourth with 8,430. This is the best result National has achieved in the Maori seats since the start of MMP.

    Reference recounts. Don’t think Owen Glenn will come to the ‘Party’ this time.

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  32. s.russell (1,565 comments) says:

    But what went wrong with the Green vote?

    I suspect a lot of those who told pollsters they would vote Green were really core Labour supporters who were unhappy with Labour and wanted to give it a slap, but did not want to say that they wouldn’t vote, so they said “Green”

    When it came to the crunch, it was simpler for them to protest against Labour by staying at home than by going to the polling booths to vote for an option they did not really believe in.

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  33. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    “So all of the organisations that have sprung up over the last few years that advocate a greater degree of academic freedom in universities are invalid. ”
    I am unaware of such organisations, although if they feel that they are not enjoying enough academic freedom I encourage them to take action.

    “All of the Marxist/ Stalinist language I read in any university code of behaviour I am mistaken about.”
    Perhaps you could give me an example of what you are talking about?

    “That students know so much about biodiversity and social justice and nothing of the American War of Independence is quite insignificant.”
    Really? I imagine it would depend more on their chosen field of study.

    “Pull the other one tiger. Its got bells on it.”
    You seem to be making the assumption there is only one perspective. In all of my papers thus far they have strongly promoted critical thinking, telling us to NOT blindly accept what they tell us. If we disagree with something they say, then we have every right to do so. At times I have disagreed with my politics lecturer (Dr Richard Shaw) and I have yet to suffer an academic penalty as a result.

    On that same note I find in my classes there is a wide variety of views and perspectives. I have yet to hear of someone failing based on what their perspective happens to be. Perhaps you are thinking of a more specific field of study at university?

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  34. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “I am unaware of such organisations,”

    I would say this telling expression of gross ignorance disqualifies you from any further comment.

    “Perhaps you could give me an example of what you are talking about?”

    I will on the condition you deny it exists. Please post such a denial. Of course, this once again would be a demonstration of gross ignorance.

    “Really? I imagine”

    Your imagination is not anything that carries any weight in this discussion.

    “You seem to be making the assumption there is only one perspective.”

    ..and your apparent complete ignorance of that perspective would only further support it as the truth.

    What I will concede is that you are possibly an unknowing participant in this fraud. In much the same way as a an individual whitebait might think himself capable of independent thought and action amongst the shoal.

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  35. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    @Redbaiter-
    “I would say this telling expression of gross ignorance disqualifies you from any further comment.”
    Granted there would be some ignorance on my part, due to my assumption that the norms for me would also be the norm for other papers and/or university institutions nation wide. It may very well be that while I have enjoyed a fair amount of freedom of speech that others have studied in environments which do not allow for this. It does surprise me a little as it is a requirement of university to be an environment where such freedoms are guaranteed.

    “I will on the condition you deny it exists. Please post such a denial. Of course, this once again would be a demonstration of gross ignorance.”
    I have already acknowledged that there is a very real chance such organisations exist. I am not saying they do not exist, I am simply asking for some of them.

    “Your imagination is not anything that carries any weight in this discussion.”
    I laughed at this comment.

    “..and your apparent complete ignorance of that perspective would only further support it as the truth.”
    I am completely aware there are numerous perspectives for any given topic. If there weren’t there would not be any such thing as politics. I am also somewhat aware of a few of the views as I find ideology to be quite fascinating. Your assumption that I do not have a varied understanding of ideology is a little bit false. I have written from the view points of a variety of them. For instance in one essay I wrote from a Marxist perspective, yet in another I wrote from a Neo Liberal perspective.

    “What I will concede is that you are possibly an unknowing participant in this fraud. In much the same way as a an individual whitebait might think himself capable of independent thought and action amongst the shoal.”
    You seem to be again asserting that there is a single voice/view. Which I can repeat again this is not the case. I have observed people in my classes that have numerous political leanings. There have been left leaning people, right leaning people and centrists. Some have been appraising of Labour while others have been very strong Act supporters. Surely the fact there are Young Act, Labour, National and Green groups on campus further adds to the diversity of opinion?

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  36. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “I have already acknowledged that there is a very real chance such organisations exist. I am not saying they do not exist, I am simply asking for some of them.”

    Look, you’re boring me. You did not ask that. You asked for an example of Stalinist/ Marxist speech codes. if you can’t even stick to your own arguments I suggest you go away and stop wasting both of our time. I don’t need any more idiots to argue with right now. I have four others already ranting their idiot heads off on another thread.

    “Surely the fact there are Young Act, Labour, National and Green groups on campus further adds to the diversity of opinion?”

    The very fact that you think this selection is representative of “diversity” shows your conceptual limitations. Why don’t you try and place those groups on the political spectrum from left to right, and see how what you perceive as the furtherest right stacks up against say small government Conservatives who believe in Constitutional governance, no wealth redistribution, strong Defense forces, freedom of political expression, private property rights, freedom of religion and faith, minimal government and charity as opposed to welfare.

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  37. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    @Redbaiter-
    “Look, you’re boring me. You did not ask that. You asked for an example of Stalinist/ Marxist speech codes. if you can’t even stick to your own arguments I suggest you go away and stop wasting both of our time. ”
    Mistake acknowledged, I do at times word things in a way which leaves them open to interpretation. Although I am interested in both examples of the Stalinist/Marxist speech codes. I am curious if you believe this implies to university as whole or specific papers/fields.

    “I don’t need any more idiots to argue with right now. I have four others already ranting their idiot heads off on another thread.”
    Highly subjective term which in this instance comes with a taint of irony. For someone who is so keen to pick up on the wording used by others I wonder why you chose that exact word. A word which originally meant someone who does not partake in public affairs is an interesting choice to use against a person majoring in politics.

    “The very fact that you think this selection is representative of “diversity” shows your conceptual limitations. Why don’t you try and place those groups on the political spectrum from left to right, and see how what you perceive as the furtherest right stacks up against say small government Conservatives who believe in Constitutional governance, no wealth redistribution, strong Defense forces, freedom of political expression, private property rights, freedom of religion and faith, minimal government and charity as opposed to welfare.”
    The example I chose was designed more to combat an earlier assumption that university graduates are limited to green party supporters. It was also not intended to reflect the entire spectrum of political views at university. You are rapidly bringing us away from the issue of our discussion which was University indoctrinates green party supporters.

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  38. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “You are rapidly bringing us away from the issue of our discussion which was University indoctrinates green party supporters.”

    OK, fair enough. Just so I understand the argument fully, is it your position that no such indoctrination occurs??

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  39. reddeath26 (97 comments) says:

    “OK, fair enough. Just so I understand the argument fully, is it your position that no such indoctrination occurs??”
    I do not believe there is a universal conspiracy where the universities of New Zealand are out indoctrinate students. Secondly I believe that a students grades can not be bought down based on their perspectives/arguments.

    However at the same time I acknowledge that the way lecturers present their lectures can have a big impact. Despite encouragement of critical thinking and academic freedom there will be some students who blindly follow what their text book says/their lecturer says without realizing that it is quite simply 1 of many perspectives.

    I hope this clarifies my position more.

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