Think if the earthquake was in 2011?

September 6th, 2010 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

A friend has just made a very good point to me,

Think if the Christchurch earthquake had happened in a year’s time.

If Jim Anderton wins the mayoralty, he will spend over a year being an MP (and a party leader) and a mayor. Thank about what this means.

If the earthquake had occurred during the week, the Mayor would probably be in Wellington attending Parliament. The “first citizen” would be missing in action, around a third of the time.

I think the earthquake reinforces that being Mayor is not a part-time job, that you can do along with two other jobs.

Jim Anderton should use this opportunity to change his position, and announce he will resign as an MP if he is elected Mayor. Christchurch needs a full-time Mayor in the months ahead.

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53 Responses to “Think if the earthquake was in 2011?”

  1. Grant Michael McKenna (1,126) Says:

    If Jim Anderton were mayor, the best place that he could be would be in Wellington. He’d get in the way if he were in Christchurch, and he’d be able to beg for money in Wellington.

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  2. Lee C (4,499) Says:

    Jeez David – I thought you were going to make a remark about the potential loss of life if this had happedend during the world cup or during a rugby match – - not a trite party-political statement about Anderton. I’m no fan of the troughmeister, but can we count our blessings here for a day or two before we stick it to ‘the man’?
    ps MWT is brilliant today it’s got sex, religion and politics all in one post!
    http://monkeyswithtypewriter.blogspot.com/2010/09/is-iranian-justice-peverted-i-mean.html eye thenkyu . . Lee MWT

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  3. Inventory2 (8,808) Says:

    Jim who?

    Hey, my 5000th comment!!

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  4. Danyl Mclauchlan (1,040) Says:

    Oh how classy.

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  5. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    “can we count our blessings here for a day or two before we stick it to ‘the man’?”

    But “the man” needs to act quickly to show that he would be fully committed to the job he is seeking. Rebuilding Christchurch will be a long hard task, and needs a full time effort. Age and energy is also an issue.

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  6. Guy Fawkes (702) Says:

    If he was a younger man with an unblemished record. A much younger man who had a roust track record of success. Perhaps.

    He is simply not up to the task of putting a huge job away on a part time basis. Especially as the other jobs are huge.

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  7. Inventory2 (8,808) Says:

    You’re quite right Pete; it has suddenly become a full-time job, and more. Anderton would be better to withdraw from the mayoral race if he is not prepared to resign as MP for Wigram. That way, he could be 100% committed to ONE lot of constituents, instead of providing a part-time service to many.

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  8. DavidR (91) Says:

    Jeeze David! By that reckoning, no mayor should ever leave town, just in case. Also, no Prime Minister should leave the country, or anyone else either?

    [DPF: Not at all. By my reckoning no major city Mayor should hold down a second job that *requires* them to be out of their city for three work days a week]

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  9. KiwiGreg (2,798) Says:

    Man you are fixated on this. If people object they wont vote for him.

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  10. dad4justice (7,339) Says:

    Jum the potential mayor will be a fossilized dinosaur before Christchurch is rebuilt. I hope Bob Each Way can use a shovel and pick?

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  11. slightlyrighty (2,246) Says:

    DavidR.

    The point that DPF and others are making is that the position of Mayor of our second most populous city is sufficiently large that it deserves a person who is willing and able to commit to it full time. If any person in such a role was out of the city or country as part of THAT role, then there is no problem.

    The issue is, if Anderton was mayor, as well as MP and Party leader (of a party of one!), then Christchurch would have a part timer with a second job that routinely take him away from the other job he is elected to do.

    In situations such as what Christchurch is going through at the moment, would such a man in such a situation be the best for the city, or do they deserve better?

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  12. Gwilly (152) Says:

    Rudy Parker will now win hands down…its no longer a contest. The real issue is what would be the contigency plan if this happened anywhere in the main cities a month out from the Rugby World Cup or heaven forbide, during the tournament? I guess these are the types of questions that will arise in the aftermath.

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  13. Mr Nobody NZ (382) Says:

    Gwilly, I believe that most of these sort of events (Rugby World Cup, Commonwealth & Olympic Games) have a policy that if if a major issue arose like a natural disaster then the previous host country picks up the hosting responsibilities.

    Depending on how close it occurred to “d-day” however they may be forced to postpone the 2011 event to allow France an opportunity to prepare properly.

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  14. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    The job description for Christchurch mayor has changed overnight. Voting papers will be delivered next week. Suitability for the job and availability time-wise are things that need considering fairly soon. All Anderton needs to do is say how he would deal with the substantially changed situation, and promote his credentials. As does Parker. Then the voters will know what to decide on.

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  15. Viking2 (9,482) Says:

    Given the disrution inherant in this event and the continuity required one ponders the desirability of holding the election at all at this time. Many people will be displaced and many of the poling booths may be unuseable. Logic says the this election should be postponed for some months until a clearer picture of Christchurch’s future is available.
    The disruption to peoples lives will last for several years. Ask anyone who was near Edgecumbe or Fielding after their events which were way less disruptive than this one.
    Right now certainty and security are the two most important issues for residents and this morning there are reports of looters in outlying area’s.

    A postponment for some months is desirable in my view.

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  16. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    “A postponment for some months is desirable in my view.”

    Might be a sensible thing to do in Christchurch – but polling booths aren’t the issue, it is a postal ballot. It sounds like many people won’t be living in their normal homes, ensuring everyone receives their voting papers could be difficult.

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  17. Chuck Bird (3,445) Says:

    Like many I was very impressed with way Mayor Parker took charge. This should be a lesson for those of us in other cities. If there was a disaster of similar magnitude in Auckland I know who I would want as mayor

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  18. Gwilly (152) Says:

    Who Chuck?

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  19. DavidR (91) Says:

    Okay. I can see some merit in your argument, David (and thanks for answering my 8.00am), but i still don’t agree. No city is run by a one-man band, even if he was away for 6 days a disaster could strike on the 7th and, anyway, isn’t there a precedent with wotisname – the Mayor of Queenstown a few years back?

    cheers

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  20. Chuck Bird (3,445) Says:

    I thought that would be obvious. What sort of confidence would Brown banging his head on TV instill in the populous?

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  21. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    DavidR, trying looking at it a different way.

    Would you prefer your mayor to be in the city most of the time, with occasional periods away?

    Or a mayor in the city perhaps half of the time who is regularly away working in another city with different priorities, and when he is in the city his time is split between attending to city constituents and parliamentary constituents?

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  22. Owen McShane (1,226) Says:

    The BIG story is that this massive earthquake in a major city has resulted in zero deaths. The timing had much to do with it, of course, because most people were safe at home in their lightweight timber framed suburban bedrooms.
    Had they been in offices many would have been turned into hamburger my moving filing cabinets etc.
    The low damage level is a tribute to our engineers, scientists, and our building codes.

    Hopefully more people will be aware that “solid brick” is not your best friend in an earthquake.

    Of course we know that Christchurch is subject to earthquakes. That is why there has been a major programme for strengthening older buildings. Every part of NZ is at risk of earthquake. It’s just some are more at risk than others.

    The light timber frame is the ideal construction. I remember a seminar on earthquake design from an expert who had just returned from the great Alaskan earthquake. I house, which could have passed for any bungalow in Auckland, rolled down a steep hill during the earthquake. The window panes remained intact.

    Remember, an earthquake of this magnitude killed 230,000 people in Haiti. Mud bricks may be romantic but they kill you when they collapse.

    Also those people who have to leave their homes do not have to worry about squatters. They have secure title to return to.
    It is also amazing how quickly services etc are being restored. There is little one can do to prevent underground effects such as broken pipes and gas lines.

    The response time is remarkably good.

    Remember too that the Richter scale is logarithmic. So that 8.1 earthquake in 1857 or whenever was TEN times more powerful than this one. The after shocks of 4 and 5 etc are hundreds of times less powerful than the main shock.

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  23. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    “isn’t there a precedent with wotisname – the Mayor of Queenstown a few years back?”

    Warren Cooper:
    Mayor of Queenstown 1968 to 1975
    Otago MP 1975 to 1996
    Mayor of Queenstown-Lakes District 1995 to 2001

    So yes, there was a similar overlap for him in 95-96, although it should be noted that Queenstown in 1995 was a lot smaller and less damaged than Christchurch is today.

    The Queenstown-Lakes District Council (includes Arrowtown and Wanaka) has a total population of about 27,000 now, it would probably have been under 20,000 in the mid 90s.

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  24. Fletch (4,308) Says:

    Think if it had happened in 2012.
    People would be talking about the end of the world.

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  25. Tom Gould (141) Says:

    Perhaps someone should ask the local electoral officer how they intend to distribute the postal ballot papers with so many people being either unwilling or unable to live in their homes? It is very easy to see people being disenfranchised. Postponement would seem to be a good option.

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  26. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    Fletch: as they have been since about the year 1.

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  27. Fot (252) Says:

    I did wonder how long it would take before the union scum attempted to make political capital out of this disaster.

    Apparently the unite union has sent out a “warning” to employers that their staff still need to be paid, it seems that the unite union does not give a shit that the business may no longer be there they just want to extort wages out of the poor business owners.

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  28. Gwilly (152) Says:

    Agree Fot, they are shockers!

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  29. Graeme Edgeler (2,928) Says:

    I did wonder how long it would take before the union scum attempted to make political capital out of this disaster.

    Apparently the unite union has sent out a “warning” to employers that their staff still need to be paid, it seems that the unite union does not give a shit that the business may no longer be there they just want to extort wages out of the poor business owners.

    If they were dealing with the employers, and not putting out a press release or going on TV, then it’s not exactly making political capital. And just like ordinary people and families, businesses should have insurance for stuff like this.

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  30. Fot (252) Says:

    “businesses should have insurance for stuff like this.”

    And if they don’t?

    Why should it be the job of the business owners to cover the workers in a time like this, the staff should have their own cover.

    Of course the union scum are looking to make capital out of it, this is nothing short of extortion, some poor bastard who has mortgaged his house to get into the restaurant business should not have to worry about paying the wages when his restaurant has crumbled to the ground.

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  31. krazykiwi (9,188) Says:

    @Fot – Hear hear!

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  32. YesWeDid (885) Says:

    It is pretty disgraceful of you DPF to engage in petty politicking like this. Both Bob and Jim have made comments along the lines of; now is not the time to make political points, maybe you could follow there lead (but I doubt it).

    But your ‘argument’ does not make sense, John Key managed to be in town later the same day the earthquake hit and he is not a lowly backbench MP.

    [DPF: I'm not arguing against Jim Anderton's candidacy or saying he would be better or worse than Parker in a crisis. I am calling on him to do the right thing and announce he will resign as an MP, if elected Mayor]

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  33. peterwn (2,165) Says:

    YesWeDid – Nevertheless there is an election campaign on. While the ballot can apparently be put off for 14 days, it cannot be further postponed except by a special Act of Parliament.

    Bob is right to stick to the task in hand and not to politic. Jim is right not to make political comments aimed at Bob, and there would be a public backlash against him if he did. Nevertheless I see no problem with commentators commenting on the forthcoming election especially concerning the alleged benefits of continuity.

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  34. Inventory2 (8,808) Says:

    YesWeDid said

    It is pretty disgraceful of you DPF to engage in petty politicking like this. Both Bob and Jim have made comments along the lines of; now is not the time to make political points, maybe you could follow there lead (but I doubt it).

    You’re absolutely right YesWeDid. We should all just stop talking about this, and let Bob Parker go on showing the leadership that he has whilst Jim Anderton works from home. I couldn’t agree more :-)

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  35. Positan (350) Says:

    In almost every interview with Anderton he has seemed almost congenitally unable to answer questions as they have been posed.

    In contrast, Parker’s style has been address every question with as much fullness and detail as he’s been able, and with emphasis to the actual thrust of the question as well.

    Parker has shown himself to be the right man in the job at the right moment – capable and competent when it really mattered, he must have allayed many fears.

    In my mind I can only picture Anderton, waffling atypically, attempting to avoid the obvious thrust of the questions posed by rendering the “clever” answers he wanted to give – not the ones sought by the questioners.

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  36. RJL (100) Says:

    What’s the mayor going to do? Personally dig through rubble to save crying babies?

    What’s important is what the mayor does *before* a disaster. It’s about the professional rescue teams he ensures are ready and trained for such contingencies, it’s about the way infrastructure is organized, it’s about how the city responds, not how one man responds. The only marginal benefit of the mayor being on the ground is his capacity (or not) to give some-sort of cheering motivation speech; and suggesting that professional rescue workers need that to do their job properly is a bit insulting. It’s only in inane movies that a hero-mayor/emperor is required.

    How much time the mayor spends in-situ and whether he happens to be present or not at the moment of the disaster is irrelevant. Anyway, as others have noted Key managed to mobilise pretty quickly for his photo-opportunities; he certainly made it in time for the 6pm news.

    Bob Parker has certainly managed to not fuck things up; but it’s now (and in the coming weeks), as the strategy for recovery is formulated/implemented, that his decisions are really important.

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  37. MT_Tinman (2,228) Says:

    # Graeme Edgeler (1,595) Says:
    September 6th, 2010 at 11:29 am
    And just like ordinary people and families, businesses should have insurance for stuff like this.

    My understanding is that most insurance policies don’t cover Natural Disasters so how ’bout this?

    Employers affected by the quake agree to give all employees a percentage of their profits until they are back working full time and the employees agree to pay the same percentage of any losses during that time.

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  38. Inventory2 (8,808) Says:

    RJL said

    Anyway, as others have noted Key managed to mobilise pretty quickly for his photo-opportunities; he certainly made it in time for the 6pm news.

    And just what would you and your mates from the left have been saying about Key if he HADN’T been on the ground in Christchurch within 8 hours of the earthquake? You would have accused him of being uncaring. Christchurch is his home-town FFS, and he still has family there.

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  39. Paulus (1,683) Says:

    It beggars belief if Anderton was currently Mayor, to imagine him strutting his stuff in his usual arrogant way.

    He is intransigent in his belief of his perfection. He harrows people to tell them he is right (always).

    He would have taken over sorting everybody out and “organising” the immediate future of Christchurch. None of the professionals would know what the hell they were to be doing, as he would constantly intefere with all their professional decisions.

    He is like that in Parliament, as he was with Clark. Even most Labour MPs and staff are afraid of him as he is so dogmatic.

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  40. bchapman (646) Says:

    What an amazing transformation! Bob Parker has gone from useless interfering socialist to right wing pin up boy in 6 months.

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  41. DJP6-25 (1,100) Says:

    It looks like the Troughmaster General will have to make do with two pay checks then. I wonder how he’ll manage. I guess every cloud has a silver lining.

    I hope none of you lost anything in the quake.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  42. RJL (100) Says:

    Inventory2:And just what would you and your mates from the left have been saying about Key if he HADN’T been on the ground in Christchurch within 8 hours of the earthquake?

    Depends what he did instead, I guess. If he did something constructive in Wellington, that would be just fine. Again, it’s what he does now in terms of helping reconstruction that is important. Not that he went on Live TV on Saturday night from the disaster location.

    Inventory2: Christchurch is [Key's] home-town FFS, and he still has family there.

    It’s my hometown too. And I have family there too. So? No need for me to go down there. No real need for Key to be there either — except photo-opportunity.

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  43. DrDr (96) Says:

    I think Key had to be there so he could see and hear first hand what the ChCh public have to do to restore a quality of life. Staying in Wellington would not have achieved this. I think he and Parker are showing strong leadership and this can only augur well for the future. I hope Parker continues in his role after the elections as Jim is a dinosaur and that isn’t what ChCh needs if it is going to plot a road to recovery.

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  44. RJL (100) Says:

    DRDR I think Key had to be there so he could see and hear first hand what the ChCh public have to do to restore a quality of life. Staying in Wellington would not have achieved this.

    Why?

    Is Key such a witless idiot that he is incapable of comprehending something like this without being a first-hand witness to it?

    DRDR I think he and Parker are showing strong leadership and this can only augur well for the future.

    Certainly, they are attempting to look like strong leaders (or at least not look like weak ones). Parker seems to be doing something effective. There is little evidence yet of what Key has achieved.

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  45. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    Is Key such a witless idiot that he is incapable of comprehending something like this without being a first-hand witness to it?

    There is nothing wrong with Key going to Christchurch, and it can help, and it can be seen to be helping:

    a) to assess the true scale of problems you are best to see them first hand, far more impact and perspective
    b) people in disaster areas like to know the top brass are taking a personal interest rather

    Key has done the right thing. This event is a billions of dollars deal. He bloody well should know as much as he can find out about it.

    Parker also seems to be doing the right thing. Good on him.

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  46. RJL (100) Says:

    Pete George … and it can be seen to be helping

    Yes, it is solely about being seen.

    Key is managing to look vaguely like he doing something; however it remains to be seen whether he actually does anything.

    Pete George a) to assess the true scale of problems you are best to see them first hand, far more impact and perspective

    What trite rubbish.

    Pete George He bloody well should know as much as he can find out about it.

    Yes, absolutely. The question is whether rushing down there in time for the 6pm News on Saturday, and then rushing back to Wellington is the best and most effective way for him to find out about the earthquake or to help those affected by it.

    It is questions like “how Key deals with people who are uninsured” that are important, and that’s what he should be judged on. How quickly he got to the scene is not relevant. His personal ability to rapidly get to the scene is not evidence of “good leadership” (it’s not evidence of “bad leadership” either; it’s just irrelevant).

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  47. Inky_the_Red (668) Says:

    I don’t think there was any harm for Key and John Carter visiting Chch.

    I think some of his comments weren’t tactful and travelled around with far too many who were just there for the photo op.

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  48. Pete George (17,596) Says:

    It’s not trite rubbish. Looking at something on TV or on a bit of paper or talking by phone is nothing like seeing it first hand. There is no substitute for seeing real things and talking to people face to face. That’s why there are still things like meetings, conferences, holidays, shops, concerts etc rather than locking yourself away on the internet for the rest of your life.

    There was no need to “rush down in time for the 6pm news”. It is trite rubbish suggesting that was the aim.
    Key arrived much earlier than that, and if you had watched any of the all day coverage, with many things repeated many times, you would have seen that there was no need to target 6pm anyway.

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  49. Nookin (2,513) Says:

    Is the prohibition on the term Fuckwit suspended when there is a civil emergency?

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  50. scrubone (2,318) Says:

    Nookin: no, and neither is the recommendation of not feeding trolls.

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  51. Nookin (2,513) Says:

    Just wondering. I think I will wander off to another thread.

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  52. Positan (350) Says:

    RJL’s views and purported insights show clearly the intellectually-starved state of such would-be Labour upholders – not to mention their absolute inability, when confronted with reality, to grasp the merest of patents and fundamentals.

    And this is the crowd who see themselves as “alternative government” and “electable” in 2011.

    Say no more. They shaft themselves faster than anyone could do the same job for them.

    The wonder is that only they can’t see it.

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  53. BeaB (1,609) Says:

    Anderton himself cannot resist the nasty polticial dig.
    He is reported as saying Bob Parker has done a good job during the last few days “on the face of it” and asking where is Giuliani now?
    Whatever his merits may be, I can’t stand the man and his arrogant, sanctimonious pronouncements and plundering of the public purse for decades.
    As a former Christchurch resident I pray the citizens will vote for Bob Parker, the man who has given them the leadership they needed in their hour of crisis not that fat toad.

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