The Press on Labour
July 28th, 2011 at 11:00 am by David FarrarThe Dom Post Press editorial:
The leader of the Labour Party, Phil Goff, yesterday attempted to dismiss the latest opinion-poll results showing popular support for the party continuing to slump dramatically, but the fact is the dire results are only the latest in what appears to be an unstoppable decline. …
Even more worrying for Labour, given the way election campaigns nowadays are very much presidential-style campaigns focused on party leaders, is the fact that Goff himself is rating not far above invisibility in the preferred prime minister rankings.
Goff defends his 6% by saying Clark was much the same in 1996. But this is not a good comparison because back then left wing voters were not saying Jim Bolger was their preferred PM, but that Anderton and Peters were.
In July 1996, Colmar Brunton had Clark at 7%, Peters 19% (and was 29% in May), Anderton 6%(had been 24% a year earlier) and Bolger 27%. Bolger was less than Clark, Peters and Anderton.
Compare this to Key who is 9 times as high as Goff, and no other left wing politician features strongly.
Let us look at how opposition leaders have polled in July of election years:
- 2008 – Key was ahead of Clark
- 2005 – Brash 20%, Clark 40%
- 2002 – English 19%, Clark 48%
- 1999 – Clark 22%, Shipley 25%
- 1993 – Moore 14%, Peters 20%, Bolger 12%, Anderton 6%
- 1990 – Bolger 12%, Moore 12%, Muldoon 8%, Peters 15%, Palmer 15%
- 1987 – Bolger 14%, Lange 35%, Muldoon 13%,
So prior to 1999, other politicians such as Anderton, Peters and Muldoon took big chunks of the preferred PM ratings. That makes comparisons for the Opposition Leader less than useful. But since 1999 the polls have clearly shown that normally an opposition leader will poll around 20% – yet Goff is at 6%.
Related posts:
- Preferred PM Polls
- McCarten on a Labour-led Cabinet
- The Press on Labour
- Is it Labour is unpopular or National being popular?
July 28th, 2011 at 11:08 am
Poor old Goff must absolutely hate you DPF.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 11:18 am
Michaels
Yes indeed, and being a lefty he will blame everyone else before he looks in the mirror.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 11:40 am
as their polling results have been so bad for so long and they are doing nothing about the Leadership speaks volumes. Goff and the rest must have decided they are fkd BUT are holding out for something .. a sex scandal, other than their own of course, or some corruption allegation. Remember, it doesn’t have to be true. Mallard has lied so many times in the past that it isn’t an issue for him. The Whale had a peice about the number of times he has had to make a please explain in Parlnament.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 11:50 am
The good news for Phil is he can retire in December… actually its more a case of he WILL be retiring in December.
But hey enjoy the holiday… the taxpayer funded, bauble encrusted holiday.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 11:56 am
The real problem for Phil is that if he is a realist, he will be dusting off his CV and finding he has actually achieved Sweet F.A
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Is there any particular reason why you’ve deliberately omitted the percentage figures for 2008? Surely you don’t need to cheerlead for National to this extent.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Helen @ 48%? There were some sick puppies in 2002!
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Here you go, Courage Wolf.
http://tvnz.co.nz/content/1588222/2556418.xhtml
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:14 pm
Goff’s ultra low polling as opposition leader means that even Labour voters reject him. But they are not giving their support elsewhere except some will be giving Key support. I used to think Goff was quite acceptable. He was an able Cabinet Minister. But the shiftiness over Darren Hughes and now the shiftiness over the security briefing and of course leaking confidential minutes of a meeting Don Brash had with Senators leaves me thinking the man is a creep. I am sure there are other examples which those inside the beltway will know about. The public do not think he is the real deal. Certainly not an alternative Prime Minister. Helen Clark has never trusted him. And someone who has radically changed his political beliefs lacks authenticity. Julia Gillard has a similar problem. So into the valley of death rides the Labour caucus which could leave them wounded not for one term but for another two.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
The problem for the Labour caucus is they have no one whomthey could imagine leading them to a better result this time round than Goff, a la choosing Mike Moore in 1990.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
tvb, also don’t forget very early on in Goff’s stint as the LOO, he showed his true colours with the Neelam Choudary affair (aka the Richard Worth affair). Goff was very deceptive and manipulative then.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Thanks slightlyrighty.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Poor Goff.
Now that Parker is the perceived heir incumbent, basing himself in Auckland, with supporting “pony friend”, I assume he will take Goff’s seat, Mt Roskill, in a byelection soon after the election, when Goff quits. The left powerbase will support this with Maryanne Street as deputy, satisfying the left wing feminist’s fire.
Cunliffe would not be in the the best interest for Labour, as he is unpopular, and peceived as arrogant, and a “rich prick”, so no good to the left, despite what his only supporter (himself) thinks.
Its BBQ weather weekend, but not at the Goffs. Nelson probably.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
@ Paulus – if the gathering is at Maryan’s place, a fondue party is the more likely food option…
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
I2
It’s a clothing optional party at Full-Moon’s place.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Maryanne Street has always been the behind the scenes leader and brains of the Labour Party. both Parker or Cunliffe will be in her favor but not Andrew Little. So Andrew Little needs to get rid all the old guard including these three.. if he’s is too revitalize the Labour party before 2014.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Thanks DPF – I was wonder the same thing. Very interesting.
Thank goodness we no longer have muppets like Winnie & Anderton dominating the prefered PM polls.
Question – is this a silver lining virtue of MMP?
Vote:OR, does it just reflect the current political landscape?
OR, have New Zealanders moved on from being fooled by charlatans?
Or, a combination of the three above?
July 28th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Is Maryanne Street really the brains behind the throne RKBee??
If so, for a genius, she must be a dumb bastard, given the polling.
Or is there a more machiavellian sinister thread behind the failure?
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Come on Guys and Gals … lay offa Phil please. He’s gods gift to the political right and let’s do nothing but nothing to change the dynamic.
Vote:July 28th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Lofty 2.30 .. Well how many brains do you think need.. to be the brains behind the Labour Party.
Vote:Most of the Labour old guard are career politicians.. including Goff.. they really don’t care what party they are in as long as they are in a party big enough to be in power or the major opposition.. MMP has just made it worse.. by making it harder to get rid of them.
July 28th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Agreed Ross; I think that Phil Goff should be given the role of Leader of the Opposition for the rest of his days on God’s earth; he’s a natural!
Vote:July 29th, 2011 at 5:34 am
The Dom’s editorial went on to describe the ousting of Palmer by Moore as a “debacle”. Labour’s polling in August of 1990 was so disasterous that, under First Past the Post, an extrapolation of a poll of current public opinion polls at the time would’ve left Labour as a rump party comprising its 15 super safe large city seats. FPP exaggerates swings in the vote for the two major parties (take 1972 and 1975 – there was an 8% change in the vote from Labour to National but 23 seats or 26% of all electorates switched from Labour to National). Labour’s front bench and senior party officials did internal polling in the spring of 1990 that showed that Moore’s relatively higher popularity compared to Palmer would’ve saved the party from this predicted oblivion and so it proved to be. As bad as 1990 was for Labour, it could’ve been a whole lot worse.
MMP has acted to smooth out the swings in support for the major parties – thus English’s abysmal showing for National in 2002, whilst it resulted in the loss of many seats in Parliament, it still did not deliver to Labour an outright majority in Parliament and it still had to govern in coalition. Had the 2002 election been fought under FPP, whilst the likelihood of people voting for third parties would’ve been greatly reduced due to the perceived wasted vote, National would’ve faced almost total annihilation.
You only have to look at recent Canadian political history to see the dramatic and exaggerated election results that occur when a party’s support suddenly drops. The Progressive Conservative government under Kim Campbell (who ousted successful PM Brian Mulrooney) was wiped out in 1993 (left with only 2 seats) by Cretien’s Liberals. Just this year Liberal opposition leader Ignatius tried to call minority Conservative government PM Harper’s bluff by triggering a snap election after forcing a confidence and supply vote and the Conservatives’ relative popularity led to a Liberal wipe out (from 77 to 34 seats and the Leader of the Opposition losing his own seat).
Goff’s problem is that voters under MMP have options and disgruntled Labour voters, knowing the obvious that National are highly likely to win in November, can send a signal of their dissatisfaction with Labour by switching their party vote to another centre left party (Greens, Mana) knowing that the centre left block (and thus chance to form a goverment) is unaffected. There is sufficient voter knowledge to know that Labour at 22% under FPP would lead to a Kim Campbell style wipe out versus under MMP it would merely be Labour’s version of English’s 22% (and 27 seats) in 2002. The lower Goff and Labour poll even after their so-called game changing tax policy announcement, the more likely centre left voters will switch or stay home and cause this outcome.
Vote: