Kiwiblog

The latest update from iPredict update is out.

Commentary:

There is an expectation that the OCR will increase earlier than previously indicated after the release of inflation data this week, according to the latest snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict. Consequently, there is an increased likelihood that mortgage rates will reach at least 6.00% before the end of the year. Unemployment is expected to continue to improve from the current rate of 6.6% and GDP growth forecasts have also improved marginally. In politics, New Zealand First has again reached MMP’s 5% threshold, although its hold on this is tenuous, with the market indicating only a 22% probability that Winston Peters will return to Parliament. Taking into account New Zealand First’s current share of the party vote, John Key is still strongly favoured to remain Prime Minister, and would be able to govern with the support of the Act Party and one of the UnitedFuture or Maori parties.

Related posts:

1. iPredict Weekly Update
2. iPredict Weekly Update #47: Rena Hurts Nats
3. iPredict Election Update #37
4. iPredict Election Update #36

Pages: 1 2

This entry was posted on Friday, July 22nd, 2011 at 10:41 pm and is filed under NZ Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.