Earthquake Facts
August 30th, 2011 at 1:00 pm by David FarrarSome interesting facts from the latest cost update on the Earthquake
- Number of houses estimated to have more than $100,000 of damage increased from 12,000 to 30,000
- Damage to land increased from $300m – $600m to $1.8b
- Total cost of earthquake now estimated to be $15b, or 8% of GDP
- This makes it the largest natural disaster to hit a developed country (in terms of cost proportional to the economy) in recent memory
- Government share of earthquake costs estimated to be $12.9b, including EQC
- The number of claims has been 388,000. The previous highest total was 6,224 for Gisborne in 2007
- Regardless of the size of the economy, the earthquakes are the 4th most costly event for insurers since 1970 – beaten only by the Northridge earthquake in California in 1994 and earthquakes in Japan in 1995 and 2011
Related posts:
- Quake costs double
- 2011 Christchurch Earthquake Day VIII
- Christchurch Earthquake 2011 Day II
- Some ACC facts
August 30th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
This just tells me that the NZ dollar is going to get more hammered next year. I thought 60 cents US would be a stopping point, but in the next couple of years we could break the lows of near 40 cents US.
Vote:Surplus by 2014-15, extremely unlikely.
August 30th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
What’s the figure for damage to roading and public infrastructure? Surely there is an impact now on the $13bn budgeted for expenditure on new state highways over the next 10 years?
Vote:August 30th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
I’m just waiting for the Labour or Green/Red nutters to promise to outlaw earthquakes.
Vote:August 30th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Jimbob I think you are being 3 pessimistic. With the world economies expecially Governments in turmoil Nz and the Kiwi are seen as safe havens. Our banking system is one of the most robust ironically as Bollard said a few weeks ago becuase its securities are mostly land and buildings not the pieces of paper that the international banks were caught with. The way NZ handles situations like CCH also counts with investors. They see a well managed well controlled system in comparison to others. Think Katrina and that was the supposed most powerful country.
Overseas investors see an attitude of can do will do get it fixed and up and running. Despite my and other moanings about Gumint etc we have one of the best in the business. They didnt get into the crap like the UK USA Europe Only Aust and Canada and ourselevs continued to operate in a sensible manner during the GFC.
And it shows in the flows of funds by the socalled Belgium dentist and Tokyo housewife. Low interest of zero to one percent are going to be the norm for these people for years. Whereas NZ interest rates will rise to counter the inflation of rebuilding CCH plus the numbers of people coming here to live.
If these people can get 4/5% at present as they can with a stable political and social environment they will continue to pump the money in. better than getting zero to one.
BTW some US banks are now charging a fee for funds on deposit and the UK banks are looking at the same. Imagine that. You rock up to invest a cool mill or so and the Manager says Thanks that will cost you $X per month.
So Im optimistic. In 5 years time I see a surplus CCH well on the way to rebulit as a world class city booming food industry supplying the technology to feed the middle classes in China and India plus small scale hi tech industries supplying to joing ventures in Asia.
And the RWCbeing retained by the ABs in 2015 Cant be bad
Vote:August 30th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Lastmanstanding @ 1:52 pm. I hope you are right, it would be a blessing if we get by relatively unscathed. But the financial forces beyound our control may overwhelm NZ. The safe haven is going to be the US dollar as people in Europe, UK and the US rush to pay off debt, most of the worlds cebt is in US dollars, hence the strong US dollar.
Vote:The NZ dollar at the moment is well bid, but when fear grips the financial markets things may change very quickly.
August 30th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
Jimbob – hope you are right but fear you will be off the mark.
Vote:agree with lastman – nz seen as a relatively sound democracy – = safe investment – and our interest rates will continue to encourage carry trade.
i see nzd getting close to parity.
and being an exporter this is clearly not wishful thinking.
August 30th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
However guys its hard to find a strong economy with a weak currency. IMHO a strong currency actually benefits exporters over time as it makes them more effecient and always looking for improvment like the Japanese kaizen that I was raised on at Honda Motor Co for many years.
A weak currency is a subsidy to exporters and a burden on importers and holds back consumer growth.
Im confident our exporters will thrive and grow even with US parity and a stronger yuan and ruppe.
As the old saying goes what doesnt kill you makes you stronger
Vote:August 30th, 2011 at 4:28 pm
This is huge and makes us wonder whether we can afford to rebuild CHCH. Though during wars cities can be raised to the ground and rebuilt. But we cannot sustain another one of these within the current generation. If only this had occurred in a minor provincial town instead of a major city. When people complain abut the compensation they have been offered they seem to be oblivious that the Government can only go so far. For instance for people who have done work on their home say updating a kitchen – it is quite arguable whether this has improved the value of the property. Some people do “updates” and do not enhance their property value at all. Offering a 2008 valuation vs insurable value plus compensation for the land in my view is more than generous.
Vote:August 30th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
ยป The number of claims has been 388,000. The previous highest total was 6,224 for Gisborne in 2007
I try and remind myself of this when I get frustrated with EQC. It helps to an extent.
It was really very big!
TVB – where are you going to put 400,000 people if you don’t rebuild Christchurch? Shit loads i broken, especially the CBD, but masses of infrastructure is still here. Still going to be a damn site cheaper than building a city from scratch somewhere else.
Vote:August 30th, 2011 at 11:06 pm
And those were relatively small earthquakes. What happens when the Alpine fault goes?
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:41 am
And those were relatively small earthquakes. What happens when the Alpine fault goes?
Shunda 6 feet under
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 1:29 am
It is going to take years to absorb the cost of CHCH. If we get another event like this say with 25 years we may not be able to rebuild it and people may just have to live in squatter camps.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 3:22 am
I would be happy to see the exchange rate take a well earned dip. I am sure loads of expat Kiwis with plenty of foreign coin in the bank would be happier to see it low again… such as myself. No way am I taking my British pounds back to NZ while it’s not even 2-1.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 10:31 am
And Labour are still promising billions in new spending and more taxes. Great stuff. I just hope that that bitch Gaia holds off on any more big earthquakes in NZ that strike cities for at least 30-50 years until the EQC has replenished it’s coffers a bit or we are in serious trouble.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:08 pm
The Government will have to underline EQC’s latest guesstimate, and say we can’t afford anymore because it will bankrupt the country. New Zealand simply can’t afford to bankroll the rebuild, the scale and cost is to prohibitive.
Vote:August 31st, 2011 at 12:19 pm
Fact # 8 – the inspections are taking far longer than they should.
Last week my brothers house in River rd was inspected, after that was done he asked the inspectors about doing the next door property which he also owns. The answer was “No we are on our way out to Rangiora now”
My mothers house in Springfield Rd St Albans (1 of 3 townhouses) inspected 2 weeks ago – their neighbour asked about their house, The Inspectors said no we are off to Redcliffs and then cross town to Riccarton before calling it a day.
Seems any planning logic to speed up inpsections is sadly missing.
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