Is Twyford in trouble?
August 17th, 2011 at 9:00 am by David FarrarMatthew Hooton blogs at electionresults.co.nz:
As Ian Llewellyn has pointed out already, Mr Twyford has been at some risk in Te Atatu. Since Ian wrote his piece a few weeks ago, things have got worse for Mr Twyford, with today’s trading having the probability of him winning now down to 72% from over 80% on 1 August.
To put that in context, iPredict is now saying that Te Atatu is the fourth most marginal seat in the country, after West Coast-Tasman, Tamaki Makarau and New Plymouth.
To put it even more in context, iPredict is saying that Mr Twyford has less chance of winning Te Atatu for Labour than Nathan Guy, Ms Kaye and Sam Lotu-Iiga have of winning the previously safe Labour seats of Otaki, Auckland Central and Maungakiekie for National.
This is disastrous for Labour, especially with Paula Bennett looking stronger than ever in Waitakere, and given the political importance of West Auckland.
Worse for Mr Twyford personally, party bosses have given him the insulting low ranking of 33 on Labour’s disgraceful, protect-all-the-losers list. As I discussed recently, this means that, if Mr Twyford loses to Mr Henare, he’s toast (while Mr Henare could expect to be rewarded with a return to Cabinet for such an historic win).
Keep in mind, of course, that Mr Twyford is still most likely to win Te Atatu. But how extraordinary that a previously safe Labour seat is now grouped with the most marginal in the country. It suggests Labour has terrible problems in West Auckland and perhaps suggest why John Key to remain prime minister is trading so incredibly high.
As Matthew says, Twyford remains the favourite to win in Te Atatu. But a market probability of 72% is significantly below most safe seats, and indicates that one or more people are willing to spend money on the basis Twyford may not win.
If people think Twyford is a sure bet, then they should buy up his stock and make some money. If you buy at 72% and he wins, you make a 39% return on investment in just four months, which is an annualised return of 119%. So is Twyford a safer bet than a finance company?
Related posts:
- Twyford not standing
- 4th time lucky for Twyford
- Twyford attacks Brown over POAL
- Labour’s decision to not risk Twyford in Mt Albert
August 17th, 2011 at 9:07 am
It’s better odds than the TAB usually give on head-to-head contests for backing the favourite!
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 9:17 am
Te Atatu peninsula is in the early stages of gentrification
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Except that the return willbe muted by their CGT.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 10:33 am
I’m not sure why everyone is still so focussed on who wins electorate seats when the real competition is for the party vote. If Twyford wins or loses Te Atatu will make ZERO difference to the overall composition of Parliament. They only electorate votes that really matter in concrete terms are those for parties under the 5% threshold.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 10:58 am
Whats the obsession with the electorate vote? Apart from Epsom and the Maori seats- Its meaningless. Labour were always going to struggle in this seat- they lost the party vote in Te Atatu (the vote that really counts) in 2008 by quite a lot
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 10:59 am
@ Murth; it’ll make a big difference to Phil Twyford. On current polling, #33 on the Labour list is a very dodgy place to be sitting.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 11:17 am
I2,
Phil would be chuffed to know that you care whether he gets to sit on the opposition front bench for the next 3 years. Those at 30-32 on the list may actually be hoping he loses however.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 11:22 am
The less electorate seats that Labour win the less influence they have at grassroots level. It doesn’t matter this year but it is another hurdle they will have to jump in 2014.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 11:23 am
The electorate vote does matter, to those electors who are concerned about their representation in Parliament. Electorate contests can be significantly different from the party vote results in specific seats, indicating that many voters see local representation as different from their national-level choice.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
For a rare moment I agree with you mikenmild. Let’s not forget that Te Atatu has been the preserve of Chris Carter who, for all his expensive tastes and penchant for travel was regarded as a popular electorate MP with a strong personal following. Carter’s personal support will not necessarily translate into a win for Phil Twyford.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
Good point. New candidates moving into electorates who supported a particular MP over time can struggle. I think Chris Hipkins, following Paul Swain, had the Labour majority in Rimutaka slashed to near nothing last time around.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
bchapman>Phil would be chuffed to know that you care whether he gets to sit on the opposition front bench for the next 3 years.
Ths issue is that Twyford actually has a record of non-parliamentary achievement. But he may be sacrificed with a low list placing so that Clark-era dead wood can stay in parliament.
To win in 2014, Labour needs a fresh lineup. But at current polling it looks like they’re going to lose MPs and the ones that are left will be the discredited Clark team and they’ll be the ones representing the party in 2014.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Phil will probably replace the other Phil in Roskill once he resigns after the next General Election.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
It appears the AGW deniers have good company in Steven Colbert.
Watch him in awe of Limabaugh and the Fox “experts.”
http://mediamatters.org/blog/201108100004
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
davidp
That’s an interesting point. Political parties face this question whenever they are out of office. There are a fair few in the current cabinet who are leftovers from the discredited Shipley government. Were Labour to return in 2014, one would assume that there wopuld be a fair few ministers who also held office under Clark.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
I do not think twyford will be given Phil goff’s old seat. That will go to David Parker. I expect twyford will win the seat providing Carter does not cause any problems. I assume that has been fixed by Helen with the un job for Carter. And of course no book.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
davidp
I agree entirely. The problem is that Goff and King as the leadership are part of the same echelon. I suspect when Little or Cunliffe get in things will change.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
Talking about Monckton, here are some selected videos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rizvaJyA-GM&feature=feedu (Monckton: Bringing the Crazy to Kiwi Land)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hl2lShU6zD0&feature=related (Lord Monckton: “I’ve discovered a cure for HIV!”)
http://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610#p/u/47/JfA1LpiYk2o (Debunking Monckton Part 1)
http://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610#p/u/47/JfA1LpiYk2o (Debunking Monckton Part 2)
I suggest visitors who get confused by all the rubbish posted by the Conservative White Men here, entertain and inform yourselves by watching the videoes at your leisure.
One thing’s for sure, the CWM won’t!!
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Luc – you’re on the wrong thread…
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Shit
Two year old bleating on my knee!
Sorry boys!
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
If Twyford wins or loses Te Atatu will make ZERO difference to the overall composition of Parliament.
On overall numbers, yes, but on composition it makes a difference. Look at who’s in the danger zone on the list. If Twyford wins Te Atatu who misses?
15. Andrew Little 22%
Vote:16. Shane Jones 23%
17. Su’a William Sio Mangere
18. Darien Fenton 24%
19. Moana Mackey 25%
20. Rajen Prasad 25%
21. Raymond Huo 26%
22. Carol Beaumont 27%
23. Kelvin Davis 28%
24. Carmel Sepuloni 29%
25. Rick Barker 29%
26. Deborah Mahuta-Coyle 30%
27. Stuart Nash 31%
28. Clare Curran Dunedin South
29. Brendon Burns Chch Central
30. Chris Hipkins Rimutaka
31. David Shearer Mt Albert
32. Michael Wood 32%
33. Phil Twyford Te Atatu
August 17th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
TVB – I agree as Parker has now set himself up with [deleted by DPF and demerits next time] in Auckland, leaving his Dunedin family and “roots” behind. He is a shoe-in when Phil goes after the election.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 1:44 pm
At the last election, Chris Carter recieved 16,459 vote for the electorate, against Tau Henare’s 11,161.
On the party vote, the figures were Labour Party 13,171; National Party 13,183
Lots of things have happened in three years, but if I where Phil Twyford, I would be spending all of my time in south Auckland trying to make sure that the Labour vote gets out to boost his chances on the list. That and hope like hell that Greens and all other minor party voters don’t “waste” their electorate vote and split their vote to support Phil.
The other thing that he can hope for is mass resignations of both list and electorate MPs if Labour loses badly, which would see him either pick-up a safer seat at a bi-election or come back via the list.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
@ DrDr; I don’t think so. Why else would David Parker have moved to Auckland and secured to nomination for a seat that Labour cannot win?
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
@Inventory2 – You have a fair point that while the electorate outcome won’t change who can form the Government, it does have the potential to change whether some politicians make it into Parliament or not, and who the locals have as the representative in Parliament. Perhaps it’s because I’ve always lived in a “safe” seat, but I’m perplexed by the amount of attention of individual electorate contests between National and Labour when the bigger picture is what percentage of the party votes they can muster.
Vote: