When will the tide turn?
September 20th, 2011 at 8:31 am by David FarrarIn my “By the numbers” blog at Stuff, I ask the question “When will the tide turn?”. Most people expect National to drop in the polls between now and the election, but the question is when? In 2008, National stated to drop in mid July, while in 2011 it is mid September and it has yet to begin, if it does occur.
Related posts:
- A timely u-turn
- The October polls
- A sure sign the tide has turned
- The summer the tide went out on global warming
September 20th, 2011 at 8:58 am
If National does drop late (to the high 40s?), if Labour does a 2002 and bleeds more support, if Greens continue to hit a 10-ish ceiling, where does the support switch to?
Brash Act have repelled as much support as they have attracted.
NZF is an unknown quantity, it will depend a lot on how WP shapes up under the media spoltlight he craves.
Maori Party traditionally scores low on the party vote (the smart Maori electorate use of MMP).
United Future will depend on how they look (if they manage to be seen) as a safe alternative.
Mana could well be the main recipient of anti anything else votes.
There’s a big pool of potential votes sloshing around, it could simply depend on which way the fickle wind blows in November.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:01 am
The Labour faces have been around a long time especially Goff. People made their minds up about those faces back in 2008 and Labour is presenting much the same team that was rejected back then. It is not a foregone conclusion that Labour will make much of a gain during the campaign.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:02 am
Farrar – “When Will The Tide Turn?”
My guess is, Labour’s renaissance will come about in 6 months time, when Key uses his 55% mandate to implement less popular policy.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:06 am
“United Future will depend on how they look (if they manage to be seen) as a safe alternative.”
UF would support National anyway. May as well vote National and cut out the middleman.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:12 am
When I ask previous Labour voters if they think that Goff can win they inevitably say NO.
Vote:They grudgingly admit that National will almost certainly win.
I then ask “Do you want a National government that relies on the support of ACT and Don Brash?
They react with horror at the prospect.
I then ask if they can think of a way to prevent that possibility.
The penny drops…..
Party Vote National 2011.
Perhaps the tide will not turn this year at all.
Every Party Vote National makes Don Brash less important.
September 20th, 2011 at 9:13 am
“UF would support National anyway. May as well vote National and cut out the middleman.”
I think there will be a reluctance to give National total control, there is still a fair bit of waryness about letting them go unrestrained. UF will support them but not on everything, they would provide a moderate check on National. UF would also provide a more varied representation in Parliament.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:17 am
“UF will support them but not on everything”
Only support them 99% of the time
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:17 am
The only variety Dunne can offer is the change of colours in the best style of a chameleon. That’s why the political whore from Ohariu-Belmont has been a Minister of the Crown for the last decade, surviving government after government.
Living proof that political prostitution is well rewarded in New Zealand.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:20 am
I can’t agree with the description of Peter Dunne as a “whore”. That epithet should be reserved for Winston.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:21 am
Rodders/Manolo – National have to negotiate support on issues (as has been apparent lately) with all their coalition partners including UF.
It makes quite a difference compared to just deciding within a party, whose MPs future’s are beholden to their leadership.
Peter Dunne has been successful at being more directly involved in government in this country this century than anyone else. What should he have done? Sat back on the back benches trying nothing?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:22 am
Can’t really agree with you Rodders.
“dodgy piece of low shit” is the more appropriate epithet IMO.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:27 am
“Sat back on the back benches trying nothing?”
Not necessarily, but it does make him open to a charge of appearing like the Vicar of Bray, doesn’t it?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:32 am
NZFirst is a party with the right policy and the wrong leader, and sadly we have to have another election with Winston at the helm. He should have retired after the last election and allow someone with genuine commitment to nationalist-conservative policies to take over. Hopefully he will get the hint after this election.
In the meantime I’m hoping and voting for an outright majority for National.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:38 am
Those who are most vocal about MPs like Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton being successful in their own ways at achieving something in parliament seem to do so because they want their own party ruling unrestrained – but most of these critics don’t even have a party that comes close to fitting their narrow ideals.
I’ve never been a fan of WP but at least he’s been in there doing something, and he’s putting himself forward again now knowing full well he’ll be spat on by do-nothings from beyond the sidelines.
You might as well pee into Piha if you think you will change the political tide by pissing on politicians who actually do something.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:40 am
Lee
Are you not voting for Colin Craig?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:42 am
“NZFirst is a party with the right policy and the wrong leader”
NZFirst is a party with the wrong policies and the right leader to promote those wrong policies.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:42 am
Pete has a fair point. Regardless of whether people agree with their policies or not, it is simply untrue to claim that the Dunne’s, Andertons and Winston’s of NZ politics are only in it for themselves and do not have any real political commitments. Anyone who knows Jim Anderton knows how passionate he is about what he believes, and I suspect same for Dunne and WP.
My main contention with both Dunne and WP was their willingness to prop up Labour when Labour went on a massive liberal social engineering blitz. I think that was a betrayal of their supporters, who did not vote for civil unions and Bradfords anti-parenting law.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:44 am
“Are you not voting for Colin Craig?”
I like him, but I dont take his new party seriously.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:45 am
So Lee01, you support NZ First’s migrant bashing?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:46 am
PG – “I think there will be a reluctance to give National total control”
National *will* have total control for the next 3 years. Keys consultative approach is good PR, but merely window dressing. United Future and ACT are national vassals anyway, as they wouldn’t have any seats without National’s tacit compliance.
So do as you’re told Peter and Don, or else………
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:48 am
Rodders,
I support New Zealanders controlling their own country and their own destiny, not liberal, globalist elites.
Being opposed to mass immigration is not “migrant bashing”.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:48 am
Bradfords anti-parenting law
That had the right intentions but became a mess – thanks to both sides of the many arguments. How many parties and MPs voted for it?
And how many voters chose parties based on minor issues like that?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:49 am
“elites”
The favourite word used by populists. Lee01 – do you endorse this sort of filth?
Vote:http://www.scribd.com/doc/46758219/NZ-First-2003
September 20th, 2011 at 9:52 am
NZ First has only one policy: support Winston Peters. Ergo it has the wrong policy.
I do agree that there is a nationalist-populist-conservative constituency big enough to put a party in Parliament. But Winston has become a barrier to that happening.
One day, I think there will be such a party in Parliament without him. But that will only happen when WP departs, and the idea of him doing so to clear the way for that happening is absurd. He seeks election for one reason only: to gratify himself, not to promote any particular political philosophy.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:53 am
Rodders,
There is no such thing as “race”. So called “racial” differences are nothing more than Darwinist nonsense. What we call race is just skin pigmentation.
So not believing in race, how can I be a racist? You might note that I have been, perhaps more than anyone else posting here, vehement in my denuciations of anti_Semitism and the Jewhatred espoused by the far left.
I am however a nationalist and a cultural realist. Radical multiculturalism has failed in Europe and it will fail here. It is also wrong to impose it on a nation that does not want it and has not voted for it.
“Lee01 – do you endorse this sort of filth?”
Its not filth, its a reasonable question to ask.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:55 am
To answer DPF’s question, I don’t think the tide will turn.
The country is now focussing on the RWC and Goff and Labour should take a holiday and come back for the campaign. No one cares about anything they might want to say right now.
I think there is a higher chance that Labour’s vote will collapse to either the Greens (left wing voters wanting a dynamic solution to issues) or UF (centre voters worried about National having a majority), than National’s.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 9:56 am
Lee01 – do you endorse the sentiments expressed on the second page of the flyer? (I am not requesting a critique of the front page)
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:00 am
Rodders,
Yes. In Britian there was a scandal a few years back when British Labour party discussion papers were discovered detailing the parties plan to seriously increase immigration from cultures radically different to Britians, especially Muslims, in order to manipulate the democratic process and create a permanent Labour majority. Do YOU agree with such blatant manipulation of democracy?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:02 am
Lee01 – Please provide a link to the discussion papers so that I can read them.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:03 am
Lee “Being opposed to mass immigration is not “migrant bashing”.”
Hmm, well how would you feel about the mass immigration of a million Christians? Migrants in any shape or form is good for a country in the long term, provided their integration into society is thoughtfully planned.
edit: fearmongery over migration is populist rubbish.
I say open the gates to all but the criminals, and watch us grow.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:08 am
Here are the relevant news stories. You can do your own research.
Secret Labour plan to increase immigration for social reasons dismissed public’s opposition as ‘racist’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1252926/Chris-Grayling-criticised-Labours-Phil-Woolas-secret-immigration-plans.html#ixzz1YRF23CJL
How Labour threw open doors to mass migration in secret plot to make a multicultural UK:
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249797/Labour-threw-open-doors-mass-migration-secret-plot-make-multicultural-UK.html#ixzz1YRFe9Exu
Labour wanted mass immigration to make UK more multicultural, says former adviser:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/6418456/Labour-wanted-mass-immigration-to-make-UK-more-multicultural-says-former-adviser.html
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:08 am
georgebolwing – “To answer DPF’s question, I don’t think the tide will turn.”
So you are suggesting National will be in power perpetually? Come on!
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:09 am
Scott.
“Migrants in any shape or form is good for a country in the long term, provided their integration into society is thoughtfully planned.”
How do you know? What do you base that assumption on?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:09 am
“at least he’s been in there doing something”
That’s a pretty worrying statement PG. He is a proven liar and decidedly dodgy. Do you seriously think he is deserving of any respect at all given his track record. Would you give the big ups to Chris Kahui if he decided to step forward? Where is your dividing line?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:19 am
Lee01 – Thank you for the link to the Telegraph. Of course, sound immigration policy attracts migrants who have skills that an country requires. Bringing in migrants in the hope of attracting their votes is like a gerrymander and only most opportunist politician would have a bar of it.
NZ First MP’s on the other hand, referred to Asian migrants as “Ying-Tong” and said they shouldn’t come here because of their driving. You support that?
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:23 am
Rodders,
Chinese driving IS appalling. And virtually every Chinese business has links to the Chinese military. Do you support our country becoming a pawn to the PLA?
“Of course, sound immigration policy attracts migrants who have skills that an country requires.”
Only because we are killing off our own people through abortion. Liberalism is stupid.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:27 am
Lee01 – I will leave it for others here to form their own judgement on your non-racist opinions.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:28 am
Georgebolwing. To answer DPFs question, I don’t think the tide will turn.
I agree with that George, until the RWC is over the general populous won’t give a toss about politics. What will be interesting is by how much, percentages, Nationals support will be influenced by the outcome of the Cup. For instance if New Zealand wins this could add perhaps (guess) +/- 5%, or alternatively if New Zealand losses (guess) +/- 5%. Those percentages are guesses on my behalf and are conjecture. But it will be interesting to factor in what a win or a loss can mean to the Nats.
Vote:However post election a completely different scenario will exist, the Nats could bleed support over asset sales.
September 20th, 2011 at 10:29 am
Rodders, I get it. Your a liberal. Your offended by anyone who does not want to live in your multicultural paradise.
I’m not a liberal. I’m a Traditionalist. I believe in the organic unity of the nation. Get over it.
Back to the thread subject. I don’t think the tide IS going to turn before the election. And it may not turn for some time after that. Nationals poll results under Key have little of any historical precedence. He has changed the game and any predictions of business as usual are problematic for that reason.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:29 am
Lee – “How do you know? What do you base that assumption on?”
Yes it is an assumption. Based on the good ol’ US of A.
Engraved on the Statue of Liberty:
“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:30 am
Lee01, I get it. You judge people based solely on their enthnicity (as at 10:23am)
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:32 am
Rodders,
“Lee01, I get it. You judge people based solely on their enthnicity”
No, I judge people based on their culture. Ethnicity is not relevent. A “white” Muslim is as much a concern for me as an Arab Muslim. Culture is the issue, not ethnicity.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:35 am
A distinction without a difference. You must enjoy your own company.
[DPF: There is a huge difference between ethnicity and religion. You can not choose your ethnicity but your religious beliefs are entirely a matter of choice]
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:37 am
So your saying a european convert to Islam is the same ethnicity as an Arab?
Of course theres a bloody difference.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:43 am
No, I was referring to your original comment before you added the third and fourth sentence.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:46 am
Rodders,
As I said, your devotion to the religion of political correctness is of no interest to me.
Bored out of my tree would be an accurate description of my feelings about your concerns.
As I said, I’m not a liberal. Get over it.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:48 am
As I said, you must enjoy your own company.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:48 am
The right believes that the polls are too good to be true (or at least too good to last).
Vote:The left believes that the polls are too bad to be true (or at least too bad to last).
Maybe both are suffering from a lack of imagination.
September 20th, 2011 at 10:48 am
thedavincimode at 10:09 am
He is a proven liar and decidedly dodgy. Do you seriously think he is deserving of any respect at all given his track record.
No I don’t, I’ve never supported him and respect has dwindled over the years from barely to not at all with regards his parliamentary performance. But I respect his right to put himself forward, yet again, to the voters, and it’s up to the voters to reward him as they see fit.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:51 am
As I have previously said Pete, at least Peter Dunne isn’t Winston.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 10:55 am
s.russell,
“The right believes that the polls are too good to be true (or at least too good to last).
The left believes that the polls are too bad to be true (or at least too bad to last).
Maybe both are suffering from a lack of imagination.”
I think you may be right. Even after the election, who are Labour going to replace Goff with? Parker? Cunliffe? They are the two front runners and both have all the charisma of boiled potatoes.
I think Labour is going to be in trouble poll wise for a long time yet. And if the current polls do hold up, as I suspect they will, Labours loss could be so large that the pool of potential leaders willl be further diminished.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 11:30 am
Scott Chris
I should have been clearer: I don’t think the tide will turn this election.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 11:51 am
Its a spring tide…it will peak Nov 26th!
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
it wont turn like it did in 2008.
labour cant offer plausible lollies and there is no helen clarke.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
I hope National drop the day after the election.
Vote:September 20th, 2011 at 6:32 pm
It’s ironic that one of the unintended consequences of MMP could be that the luney parties cause a rush to what people perceive as the mainstream thereby delivering a first past the post result?
Vote:September 21st, 2011 at 7:51 am
Rodders (1,378) Says:
September 20th, 2011 at 9:49 am
“elites”
The favourite word used by populists. Lee01 – do you endorse this sort of filth?
http://www.scribd.com/doc/46758219/NZ-First-2003
Rodders (1,378) Says:
September 20th, 2011 at 10:27 am
Lee01 – I will leave it for others here to form their own judgement on your non-racist opinions.
Vote:=================
Is Rodders trying to make the point that the NZ First pamphlet is bad and mass migration is good or is there space for a middle ground?
September 21st, 2011 at 9:01 am
“Is Rodders trying to make the point that the NZ First pamphlet is bad and mass migration is good or is there space for a middle ground?”
I think he’s offended by thought crimes against political correctness.
Vote: