I’ve blogged at Curiablog the full results from the Marae Digipoll. There’s heaps to read there. The electorate numbers are quite small per electorate, so rather than just look at who is in the lead, I’ve analysed the probability that they actually lead. I make it:
- Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
- Tainui – Labour ahead with 100% probability
- Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
- Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability
- Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
- Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
- Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
Personally I’d still regard Harawira as ahead in Te Tai Tokerau. I also think Tariana Turia will bolt in Te Tai Hauauru. Flavell is looking unbeatable in Waiariki, even with Sykes having just confirmed, as he has over 50% support. And at this stage Sharples looking pretty safe in Tamaki Makaurau.
Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)
- Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
- Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
- National 13.2% (7.4%)
- Mana 12.0%
- Green 5.6% (3.9%)
- NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
- ACT 0.0% (0.5%)
This is interesting, as you can compare to the last election. Labour are down 14% from their 2008 result. Maori Party down 1%, National up 5% and Mana Party has sucked up 12%. I do note more people on the Maori roll say they will vote National than Mana on the party vote.
Also of interest is that amongst Maori on the general roll, ACT had 3% support.
Overall the poll has some good news for everyone. Labour looks to pick up Te Tai Tonga, Maori Party elsewhere is looking okay. Mana is off to an okay start, but at this stage can’t guarantee they will get a second seat – list or electorate. National will like the answers to the questions on Marine & Coastal Area law (only 28% say Maori Party should not have supported).