The Marae Digipoll

October 2nd, 2011 at 1:41 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged at Curiablog the full results from the Marae Digipoll. There’s heaps to read there. The electorate numbers are quite small per electorate, so rather than just look at who is in the lead, I’ve analysed the probability that they actually lead. I make it:

  • Waiariki – Party ahead with 100% probability
  • Tainui – Labour ahead with 100% probability
  • Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
  • Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability
  • Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
  • Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
  • Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability

Personally I’d still regard Harawira as ahead in Te Tai Tokerau. I also think Tariana Turia will bolt in Te Tai Hauauru. Flavell is looking unbeatable in Waiariki, even with Sykes having just confirmed, as he has over 50% support. And at this stage Sharples looking pretty safe in Tamaki Makaurau.

Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)

  • Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
  • Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
  • National 13.2% (7.4%)
  • Mana 12.0%
  • Green 5.6% (3.9%)
  • NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (0.5%)

This is interesting, as you can compare to the last election. Labour are down 14% from their 2008 result. Maori Party down 1%, National up 5% and Mana Party has sucked up 12%. I do note more people on the Maori roll say they will vote National than Mana on the party vote.

Also of interest is that amongst Maori on the general roll, ACT had 3% support.

Overall the poll has some good news for everyone. Labour looks to pick up Te Tai Tonga, Maori Party elsewhere is looking okay. Mana is off to an okay start, but at this stage can’t guarantee they will get a second seat – list or electorate. National will like the answers to the questions on Marine & Coastal Area law (only 28% say Maori Party should not have supported).

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9 Responses to “The Marae Digipoll”

  1. s.russell (1,563 comments) says:

    The details really are interesting…
    Note this: In Te Tai Tonga, 12% say they will vote for “the National candidate”. But there isn’t one, and won’t be. So who are those people going to vote for? The logical answer is Katene (Maori Party). Factor that in and the presumption that Labour is going to recapture this seat looks decidedly dodgy. The same factor closes the gap in Ikaroa Rawhiti and makes Te Tai Tokerau look like a three-way race.

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  2. reid (15,942 comments) says:

    Yeah the Mana 12% is approximately equivalent to the Greens segment in the general.

    They come from the same background: the terminally naive and the terminally disaffected.

    That’s who both Hone and the Gweens tap into. It’s a bit of a shame we’ve apparently got over 1 in 10 who are completely, well you know, in the head, but apparently, we do.

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  3. emmess (1,368 comments) says:

    If you are a National supporting voter registered on the Maori roll, logical you should support Labour to restore proportionality.

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  4. Anthony (768 comments) says:

    Yeah, I’m sure National voters will see it that way emmess. May I suggest you send that to Tui – and I’ll take the years supply of Tui if they put it on a billboard!

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  5. dave (985 comments) says:

    Tainui – Labour ahead with 100% probability

    We don’t have a Tainui electorate

    [DPF: Oh yeah. I just used their term]

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  6. s.russell (1,563 comments) says:

    TV3 has breathlessly reported Labour’s delight that a new poll gives them double the support of National. They fail to mention that it was a poll of Maori only!
    They were probably seduced by the contrast to their own poll which gives National double Labour’s support (as does TVNZ, almost).

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  7. KevinH (1,131 comments) says:

    It’s difficult to comprehend Maoridom’s love affair for Labour considering the impact the Foreshore and Seabed Act had on their Rohe. Either it’s a case of short memories, or a lack of confidence in their own political abilities.
    History has proven that the relationship with Labour has been gratutious and non beneficial to Maori, if they choose to go down that path at the election, well Maori will get what they deserve.

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  8. Shazzadude (505 comments) says:

    Maori polling should be taken with a grain of salt. I can’t think of a Maori electorate poll that has ever been on the money. The Maori Party were projected to sweep the seats in 2005 and 2008; Tuariki Delamere and Tu Wyllie were supposedly retaining their seats in 1999, and Harawira was only going to get 1% more of the vote in the by-election than Kelvin Davis, for example.

    All of the Maori electorates except Te Tai Hauauru and Ikaroa-Rawhiti (provided Horomia stands, I don’t think I’ve seen him confirmed yet) will come down to the wire. Turia’s been saved by having a weak Labour candidate run against her.

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  9. Shazzadude (505 comments) says:

    Also, I’ve just noticed that the sample sizes for the electorate polling would be less than 100, as 665 people on the Maori roll were interviewed, and there’s seven Maori seats. Also, they were asked to choose a party for the electorate vote polling rather than the name of a candidate-Hone Harawira, Annette Sykes and Tariana Turia would most likely benefit more positively in those polls if that were the case, as they hold stronger namepower than the parties they represent.

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