Salmond on poll projections

November 21st, 2011 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Rob Salmond at Pundit looks at the , and linear projection of where the parties may end up on election night, being:

  • National 50.8%
  • Labour 24.8%
  • Greens 14.6%
  • NZ First 3.8%

He comments further:

Using the analysis above, we project that New Zealand First will get 3.8% of the vote. We can also project with 95% confidence that the party will get between 2.3% and 5.2% of the vote. Importantly, we project that there is only a 4% probability New Zealand First will get more than five percent of the vote.

We project that National will get an absolute majority of the vote, but a pretty small one (50.8%). Based on this analysis, we think there is a 74% chance that National will get over 50% of the vote.

Of course this is all based on the trend of the last few weeks continuing in the last week, and it may not continue if events get in the way.

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5 Responses to “Salmond on poll projections”

  1. anonymouse (693 comments) says:

    Labour= Ouch!!, 25% = 30 MPs, how far out does that tide go……..

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  2. s.russell (1,559 comments) says:

    My guess is that the polls have not yet shown the full impact of the slings and arrows of outrageous politicians against National – so polls may yet show further deterioration in Nat support.

    But the focus of the final week will increasingly become the stark choice between National or Labour/Green/Winston/Maori/Mana. That will focus minds and should help National – though polls may not catch that since that will be having its effect only in the few days.

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  3. Pete George (22,734 comments) says:

    If there are late swings as I think there have been in the past then linear projections may not tell us much.

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  4. Nick K (1,061 comments) says:

    This is bad news for National.

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  5. Richard29 (377 comments) says:

    “This is bad news for National.”

    Above 50% of the vote and able to govern alone is bad for National?

    I don’t think these projections are right though – I’d be surprised (but not dissapointed) to see the Greens hit 14.6% and I doubt Labour will drop as low as 24.8% (although I don’t see them rising either).

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