Salmond on poll projections

Rob Salmond at Pundit looks at the , and linear projection of where the parties may end up on election night, being:

  • National 50.8%
  • Labour 24.8%
  • Greens 14.6%
  • NZ First 3.8%

He comments further:

Using the analysis above, we project that New Zealand First will get 3.8% of the vote. We can also project with 95% confidence that the party will get between 2.3% and 5.2% of the vote. Importantly, we project that there is only a 4% probability New Zealand First will get more than five percent of the vote.

We project that National will get an absolute majority of the vote, but a pretty small one (50.8%). Based on this analysis, we think there is a 74% chance that National will get over 50% of the vote.

Of course this is all based on the trend of the last few weeks continuing in the last week, and it may not continue if events get in the way.

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