Labour candidates picking up National voters
I’ve done an analysis of split voting from the official data in the E9. Will do a few posts on this.
The table below lists in order what percentage of people who gave National their party vote, gave their electorate vote to the Labour candidate. To some degree this measures the cross-party appeal of a candidate.
| % of Nat PV voting Lab EV | |
| Manukau East | 27.3% |
| Christchurch East | 23.7% |
| Waimakariri | 21.1% |
| Mt Albert | 19.6% |
| Rongotai | 17.0% |
| Mt Roskill | 16.5% |
| West Coast Tasman | 16.0% |
| Rimutaka | 14.8% |
| Port Hills | 14.4% |
| Te Atatu | 13.6% |
| Palmerston North | 13.4% |
| Hutt South | 13.1% |
| Wellington Central | 12.7% |
| New Lynn | 11.2% |
| Mangere | 11.0% |
| Dunedin South | 9.9% |
| Wigram | 9.4% |
| New Plymouth | 8.7% |
| Christchurch Central | 8.1% |
| Rangitata | 7.1% |
| Manurewa | 6.6% |
| Mana | 6.6% |
| Napier | 6.4% |
| Auckland Central | 5.5% |
| Ohariu | 5.4% |
| Whanganui | 5.3% |
| Dunedin North | 5.1% |
| Rotorua | 4.7% |
| East Coast | 4.1% |
| Hamilton West | 3.4% |
| Otaki | 3.4% |
| Invercargill | 3.1% |
| Hamilton East | 3.0% |
| Wairarapa | 3.0% |
| Waitakere | 2.9% |
| Rangitikei | 2.8% |
| Nelson | 2.8% |
| Maungakiekie | 2.6% |
| Northcote | 2.4% |
| Pakuranga | 2.3% |
| Kaikoura | 2.3% |
| Botany | 2.0% |
| Tukituki | 1.9% |
| North Shore | 1.9% |
| Ilam | 1.8% |
| East Coast Bays | 1.4% |
| Waitaki | 1.3% |
| Bay of Plenty | 1.1% |
| Whangarei | 1.1% |
| Hunua | 1.0% |
| Papakura | 0.9% |
| Northland | 0.9% |
| Coromandel | 0.8% |
| Epsom | 0.8% |
| Waikato | 0.8% |
| Rodney | 0.7% |
| Tamaki | 0.7% |
| Clutha Southland | 0.6% |
| Taranaki-King Country | 0.5% |
| Selwyn | 0.5% |
| Taupo | 0.5% |
| Tauranga | 0.4% |
| Helensville | 0.3% |
The Labour candidates who did best at attracting support from National voters were Ross Robertson in Manukau East, Lianne Dalziel in Christchurch East and Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri. They all got over 20% of National voters to vote for them.
Damien O’Connor shows how he won West Coast-Tasman, with 16% of National voters having voted for him.
Of the seats won by Labour, Dunedin North had the least number of National party voters vote for the Labour candidate – at 5.1%.
The seat where the Labour candidate got the fewest National voters was not surprisingly Helensville where Jeremy Greendrook-Held got only 0.3% of National voters voting for him. Not far behind was Tauranga where Deborah Mahuta-Coyle got only 0.4% of National voters to vote for her.
In total there were 13 seats where Labour candidates failed to attract even 1 in 100 National voters.
Tomorrow I’ll blog how the National candidates did picking up votes from Labour voters, and then how candidates from both parties did picking up votes from Green voters.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:29 am
Excellent, DPF
Great service
January 24th, 2012 at 9:43 am
Can’t it also be said (and more likely) that the analysis shows Labour voters (who voted the local Labour person no matter what), who realized that National was better to run the country, so held their noses?
Ie My mother has always voted Labour, voted for Little Andrew, but in the end couldn’t back Labour (due to the CGT) and thought National had done a very good job through 2 major crises, so decided to go against her roots and let National continue running the ship through the rest of the GFC.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:55 am
I’m a little in badmac’s camp.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:57 am
I found this incredible (bottom of the article):
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10775110
20% of Epsom voters who gave ACT their party vote didn’t give Banks their electorate vote! Were those people taking the piss?
January 24th, 2012 at 10:02 am
I think this election demonstrated that voters had a good understanding of MMP.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:05 am
“I found this incredible (bottom of the article):
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10775110
20% of Epsom voters who gave ACT their party vote didn’t give Banks their electorate vote! Were those people taking the piss?”
Given that National stripped all but the diehard ideologues from the ACT vote, it’s probably not too surprising given Banks doesn’t reflect ACT values on social liberty.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:09 am
Chris Hipkins in Rimutaka (and his taking 1 in every 7 National voters) surprised me, I thought he was in serious trouble there. Ian Lees-Galloway’s increasing of his majority (despite Whaleoil claiming he was going to lose) didn’t surprise me, he did put a bit of an effort into helping save the Palmy-Wellington train service.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:11 am
@ Sazzadude but why vote Act at all then – without Banks it was obvious there would be no Act MPs so voting Act in Epsom without voting Banks was a waste.
IMHO the SMART thing to do as an Epsom voter was to vote for Banks and then give your party vote to the Nats as a bob each way (noting that neither Banks nor the Nats represent what I’d ideally like to see running the country).
January 24th, 2012 at 10:12 am
Judging by comments here there were Act supporters who didn’t support Bank’s candidency (some strongly) so maybe it’s not such a surprise. Some may well have supported ACT and not wanted Banks. Everyone won’t vote strategically, or with the same strategy.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:50 am
I would have thought diehard ACT ideologues would have been more politically savvy then to actively use one half of their vote to negate the other half! Perhaps these people were confident ACT would get 5%?
January 24th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
“Of the seats won by Labour, Dunedin North had the least number of National party voters vote for the Labour candidate – at 5.1%.”
It would be interesting to know what the figure is for National party voters giving their party vote to the Green candidate, Metiria Turei. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was much higher than 5.1%.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Good to see there are only 1.4% without a brain in my electorate East Coast Bays who ticked the Labour EV
January 24th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Interesting that Ross Robertson is more popular than now former leader Phil Goff
January 24th, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Mattyman1010-Ross Robertson had a larger majority than Helen Clark in 2008 as well. But, I think it’s safe to say that that says more about Manukau East’s demographics than Robertson’s abilities in relation to Clark or Goff.
January 24th, 2012 at 11:34 pm
“I would have thought diehard ACT ideologues would have been more politically savvy then to actively use one half of their vote to negate the other half! Perhaps these people were confident ACT would get 5%?”
Diehard in principle too, perhaps.
Perhaps a vote for Banks was too unpalatable, but if their fellow Epsomians voted for Banks, they were happy to cast a vote Brash’s way.