Public Polls February 2012
March 5th, 2012 at 2:00 pm by David FarrarI’ve just published Curia’s monthly public polls newsletter. You can subscribe to it at this address. The summary is:
February saw three political polls published – two Roy Morgan polls and a 3 News Reid Research poll.
The average of the public polls has National 16% ahead of Labour. For the first time, the public polls average does not show a clear centre-right Government, but instead the Maori Party holding the balance of power
Australia has the Government only 4% to 6% behind the Opposition on a two party preferred basis. However in the upcoming Queensland state election Labor are 16% behind. Gillard has only 26% approval and 64% disapproval of the job she is doing as PM.
In the United States Barack Obama has had a great three months. His approval ratings have improved by a net 9%, and for economic management have gone up 20%. The country direction sentiment has improved by a net 32%. His re-election chances are now rated at 605, up from 49%. The Republican nomination is Mitt Romney’s to lose. He only has 166 out of 1,144 delegates and still the preferred choice of only 37% of Republicans. However Intrade has him at 85% likely to gain the nomination.
The polls show Obama ahead of Romney by 5% in a head to head contest. However the Republicans remained favoured to keep control in the House (63%) and gain a majority in the Senate (61%)
In the UK Labour lead by just 2%.
In Canada the Conservatives have dropped 5% to 34%.
We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the most important issues, top news stories, personal finances, the Occupy movement, low voter turnout reasons, breastfeeding, Maori views and the normal business and consumer confidence polls.
The graph above shows the combined effects of NZ First getting over the 5% threshold, and also National dropping from low 50s to high 40s.
March 5th, 2012 at 2:06 pm
I guess John Keys ‘charms’ are finally starting to wear a bit thin.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
That is one massive drop.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
There seems to be an error in the graph: both left and right are on about 60% support.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 2:39 pm
On the same day the media carries a quote from Key saying National support has not been hurt…
Vote:Bugger the polls perhaps?
One thing for sure is that there is no mandate for asset sales.
March 5th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
lmao yea its terrible. dropping from low 50′s to high 40′s
Obama is quite lucky. The yanks are bouncing back in spite of him. Like when new zealand did so well in spite of clarke/ cullen.
I could live with the GOP controlling the house and the senate while Obama gets his second term. That would set things up nicely for chris christie to take the white house in 2016. glorious.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Despite winning most of the vote , Key was always going to be in trouble in this term with just a small majority and has had to rely upon his coalition partners good will to pass legislation.
Vote:The Maori Party are positioned to make useful gains for their constituents and should take advantage of that position to it’s full extent.
March 5th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
s.russell – it’s a graph of the number of seats, not the % support.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
m@tt with the tired old fallacy, if you are right about the lack of mandate, then Helen Clark had no mandate to do anything, ever.
But if you repeat it often enough, maybe you’ll convince yourself.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
So NZ First is classed as centre-left, and National as centre-right?
Interesting.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
If National is centre-right I’m Napoleon and Julius rolled into one. Ave Caesar!
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 5:02 pm
I’m not sure it’s correct to classify Peters as centre-left, or at least there needs to be an asterisk. Even if Key rules him out, it’s not a gimme he’d prop up a Labour-led government either. The Maori Party won’t necessarily have the luxury of being kingmaker to a CR or CL bloc, rather, they’d merely have the possibility of helping to cobble together an unstable CL coalition.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Well it’s really simple folks, can the asset sales or lose the nest election.
Only ideological blindness in the order of that of count Klarkula would cause them to go through with it now.
Vote:March 5th, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Just reading today how Kordia is back in profit and has 731 staff in its Aussie subsidiary. Someone tell me why the hell the government owns a company competing with the private sector in Aussie for designing and building telecommunications infrastructure?
Vote:March 6th, 2012 at 5:15 am
No wonder this government’s ratings are slipping. Appeasing the racists: http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/news/nbpol/2722239-Treaty-clause-for-Crown-shares-in-SOEs
The sooner the nefarious treaty of Waitangi is scrapped, the better.
Vote: