Public Polls February 2012

I’ve just published Curia’s monthly public newsletter. You can subscribe to it at this address. The summary is:

February saw three political polls published – two Roy Morgan polls and a 3 News Reid Research poll.

The average of the public polls has National 16% ahead of Labour. For the first time, the public polls average does not show a clear centre-right Government, but instead the Maori Party holding the balance of power

Australia has the Government only 4% to 6% behind the Opposition on a two party preferred basis. However in the upcoming Queensland state election Labor are 16% behind. Gillard has only 26% approval and 64% disapproval of the job she is doing as PM.

In the United States Barack Obama has had a great three months. His approval ratings have improved by a net 9%, and for economic management have gone up 20%. The country direction sentiment has improved by a net 32%. His re-election chances are now rated at 605, up from 49%. The Republican nomination is Mitt Romney’s to lose.  He only has 166 out of 1,144 delegates and still the preferred choice of only 37% of Republicans. However Intrade has him at 85% likely to gain the nomination.

The polls show Obama ahead of Romney by 5% in a head to head contest. However the Republicans remained favoured to keep control in the House (63%) and gain a majority in the Senate (61%)

In the UK Labour lead by just 2%.

In Canada the Conservatives have dropped 5% to 34%.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the most important issues, top news stories, personal finances, the Occupy movement, low voter turnout reasons, breastfeeding, Maori views and the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

The graph above shows the combined effects of NZ First getting over the 5% threshold, and also National dropping from low 50s to high 40s.

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