Gillard in danger

May 28th, 2012 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

news.com.au reports:

Prime Minister will have her hands full when parliament resumes this week, fending off fresh leadership speculation, facing a potentially heated caucus meeting and bracing for a new opinion poll.

Newspapers said Joel Fitzgibbon, the government’s chief whip, was openly canvassing caucus for votes to return to the top job.

When the Chief Whip starts lobbying for change you have real problems. The challenge for Labor is deciding between the leader the public hates and the leader the caucus hates.

Incidentally I was staggered to be listening to Morning Report this morning, and hear an interview between I presume one of the hosts and the RNZ Australian correspondent. The host said something like:

“So Kevin Rudd will just be getting on with the job of Foreign Minister” and the correspondent said “That’s right”.

Rudd resigning as Foreign Minister and challenging Gillard for the leadership earlier this year was a rather major news story.

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32 Responses to “Gillard in danger”

  1. kowtow (8,208 comments) says:

    Gillard out ,Abbott in. Carbon bollocks out the door,win win .

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  2. alex (303 comments) says:

    Rudd again? Good grief, who else is in the ALP? Can they really not find anyone else who is competent enough to unseat Gillard? I really worry about that lot, how have they managed to be in government when they can’t even keep their own house in order?

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  3. alex (303 comments) says:

    @Kowtow – Okay, yes Gillard’s cabinet control is a farce, but Abbott is a raving lunatic.

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  4. PaulL (5,954 comments) says:

    The problem isn’t so much a lack of talent (although like many political parties the ALP is puddle deep), the issue is who’d want it right now. The only people who want it are those who don’t have a show at leadership after the inevitable rout in the next election – so Rudd, Crean, maybe Swan. Crean and Swan aren’t very inspiring…..so Rudd it is.

    Whomever it is needs to be someone that could plausibly turn their fortunes around in a very short timeframe. Rudd can make that claim, and has evidence to back it up. Personally, I think it’d be a disaster, but then, that’s what I’m hoping for when it comes to the ALP.

    As for Abbott, a lot of people underestimate him. He’s run an incredibly tight ship in opposition, and despite his quite strong conservative tendencies, actually is a pragmatist. His answer to many questions of conscience tend to be things like “that’s not what I’d personally do, but I’d let my MPs vote their conscience” or “I’m not sure why the govt would be deciding that for people.” Sure he’s a devout Catholic, but he doesn’t appear to have a desire to force that on others. There is a lot of noise that he has problems with women, but he is happily married with 3 daughters in their twenties, and there was a lot of noise recently when his sister came out as a lesbian – which put paid to many of the theories that he didn’t know any gay people.

    I can see the attraction in a PM that represents some of what’s good about Australia – someone who swims, runs, cycles, has a high work rate but knows how to have a holiday, someone who can talk straight and doesn’t have that awful whingy voice that Julia has. I’d be prepared to give him a go as compared to the other lot.

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  5. pw (19 comments) says:

    alew– care to supply some example,s of abbort,s lunacy ?
    here,s a few example,s of gillard,s cabinet control at play–no blame attached to her though —
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/brit-trick-is-an-insult-to-the-system-20120527-1zct5.html

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  6. trout (934 comments) says:

    Morning Report is the last place I would look for accuracy and informed debate.

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  7. Daigotsu (454 comments) says:

    The problem is all of the other senior ALP people support Gillard, because they hate Rudd, so they are not offering themselves up as candidates.

    And really let’s not play up the “Rudd is more popular with the public”. Firstly he isn’t popular, he is just less unpopular than Gillard. And he is only less unpopular because he hasn’t been PM for a while and the public have short memories. If he were to become leader he would be just as incompetent if not moreso.

    It’s not any particular leader who is unpopular or more specifically it is all of them that are, because the ALP is unpopular, because they are a bunch of hippy fucking Stalnists.

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  8. tvb (4,330 comments) says:

    Gillard has revealed the weakness of her position when she did not immediately sack her Chief Whip. It is simply untenable to have your chief whip lobbying against your leadership. But then we had this ridiculous story when Gillard claims to not know about the mining deal to allow up 1700 immigrants for a huge new mining project that will create about 6,000 new Australian jobs. This could easily be sold and it is part of a Government policy for mining investment announced last year. But no rather than try and sell it Gillard puts up this stupid line she did not know about it rather than cop Union backlash. Support is ebbing away from her now but to change to Kevin Rudd against the background of the vicious attacks against him earlier this year is just not credible. I think the Gillard Government is close to collapse.

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  9. DJP6-25 (1,363 comments) says:

    More good news for Australia then.

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  10. Adolf Fiinkensein (2,872 comments) says:

    David, what else would you expect from the ABC?

    I think Simon Crean is the most likely contender. An innocuous safe pair of hands to carry out a caretaker roll while the party mends itself in preparation for the first election after the next election.

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  11. Manolo (13,518 comments) says:

    Rudd has no hope. I agree with Adolf: Crean will take the reins.

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  12. mara (764 comments) says:

    John Howard is looking better every day. At least he didn’t lose control of Australia’s borders. Gillard and Krudd are both critically dysfunctual to say the very least. There should be revolution on the streets!

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  13. Bob R (1,362 comments) says:

    Out with both of them and in with the Stable Population Party :)

    http://www.populationparty.org.au/

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  14. tvb (4,330 comments) says:

    Simon Crean is just awful and to place him in the position of Leader is to say that the ALP has given up and is just in caretaker mode only.

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  15. Kimble (4,427 comments) says:

    If either Crean or Rudd take over, their first action should be to kill off the carbon tax.

    This is the tax Gillard promised would not be created by her government.

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  16. ross69 (3,652 comments) says:

    Abbott makes Rudd look good.

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  17. pw (19 comments) says:

    ‘Morning Report is the last place I would look for accuracy and informed debate.’
    open up the link again and scroll to the bottom of the page to the 5 fairfax publications covering australia–she,s gone

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  18. Daigotsu (454 comments) says:

    Abbott is a fucking hero and will restore Oz to the prosperity of the Howard years

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  19. gazzmaniac (2,307 comments) says:

    The whole country can’t wait to see the back of Juliar. The sooner the better.

    Abbot will be the new PM in a landslide.

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  20. Manolo (13,518 comments) says:

    This is the tax Gillard promised would not be created by her government.

    Similar to what Key promised about the ETS. Ah, the liars.

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  21. Cunningham (837 comments) says:

    Is a change of government good or bad for NZ? We seem to be finally getting a bit of a jump on them with regards to a more business friendly environment (although people on here probably have a better idea then me). I know we gain alot from their economy but surely we want to try and attract companies here rather then in Aus. A change of government with more business friendly policies would most likely make Australia more attractive to business and we would surely lose out. Any thoughts?

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  22. Ross12 (1,391 comments) says:

    Put yourself in Rudd’s position. Would you want to become the ALP leader at this point? There is absolutely no doubt that come the next Fed. election ( whenever it maybe) the ALP will be smashed like they have been in NSW and Queensland. So why would Rudd want it unless his ego is bigger than his brain ?
    But maybe Rudd will take it, if he can, and then call an election asap –blame the big defeat on Gillard and hopefully alot of the anti Rudd brigade are gone , giving Rudd the chance to rebuild. He’ll have plenty of time for the rebuilding process!!

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  23. cows4me (248 comments) says:

    The ALP are dropkicks of the highest order. Like our idiot socialists, including National, I see the screeching dunny door addressing the old folks on the box. The all caring ALP will now be reimbursing the old folks for the carbon tax. Fuck these commie politicians, carbon tax = wealth redistribution, nothing more nothing less and it’s the same for this joint. We hear fuckloads from every diseased politician how exports are the only way out for this country but they are still happy to tax for carbon emissions, total bs. The bastards don’t give a flying fuck about exporters it’s about tax and politics.

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  24. tvb (4,330 comments) says:

    Ross12 there is no guarantee that KRudd will be returned in Queensland. On present polling the ALP will lose every Queensland seat.

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  25. Ross12 (1,391 comments) says:

    I take your point tvb @ 5.46. It just makes it more interesting as does reading Andrew Bolt’s blog just now where he reports on today’s question time in the Aussie Parliament –Gillard has to be toast !!

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  26. PaulL (5,954 comments) says:

    Kevin will take it because it’s the last throw of the dice for him. If not now, then it’s never. So, no matter how poisoned the chalice, he’ll go for it. He believes he’s better placed than Julia to win (and he might be right – but better than a dead donkey might only be a dying donkey), and he’s arrogant enough to give it a go. And there’s limited downside for him – if he does better than 30% he can claim he saved the silverware.

    Crean’s in the same position – he’d sort of like to be leader, and he’s also a politician, so also arrogant enough to believe he can win.

    The question is whether the ALP can get up enough caring and excitement to actually do something, or whether they’re mired in apathy and just waiting for the election.

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  27. Martin Gibson (238 comments) says:

    Cows4me: good to see a Kiwi getting appropriately pissed about it.

    Cui bono. Who benefits?

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  28. kowtow (8,208 comments) says:

    alix@308

    How is Abbot a raving lunatic?

    I reckon he’ll make a great PM.But the press and fundiatheists will be unrelenting. Fucken wankers.

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  29. Ed Snack (1,839 comments) says:

    Isn’t utterly typical of the left as typified by Ross69 that the only thing he can say is a gross slur on Tony Abbott. Personal abuse based on a despicable personalised attack on Abbott without any substance. Just goes to show that the left have abandoned policy and rational debate, and that is because they have no morals or ethics, just hatred.

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  30. boredboy (250 comments) says:

    Abandoned policy and rational debate? You mean how they have implimented their MRRT, given a wage rise worth $2 billion to the community sector workers, carbon tax and future fund, pushing ahead with plain packaging for cigarettes, the list goes on and on and on. And all this in a constitutional environment the Australian Parliament isn’t very used to.

    If anyone seemt to have abandoned policy and rational debate that would be Tony Abbott. There is a reason he is known as Mr No, or the leader of the Noalition. From him there is just nothing but negativity, personal attacks and trash-talking the economy.

    Fourty-nine electoral policies costed and finalised, according to opposition finance spokesperson Andrew Robb. Show us what you’ve got.

    Oh yeah, last point, he trails Julia Gillard by 3 points as preferred PM.

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  31. tom hunter (4,711 comments) says:

    If only the Australian Labor party was filled with more like “boredboy”, they would not now be hitting the panic button and worrying about an electoral wipeout at the Federal level.

    But, buried in the hysteria of the moment, what would they know compared to the cool-headed objectivity of boredboy, not to mention the clarity provided by his Cycloptic vision.

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  32. Paulus (2,603 comments) says:

    Carbon Tax has just started to be taken off pensions in advance of the June commencement.
    The s..t will hit the fan very shortly and not from within the ALP.

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