3 News poll
June 10th, 2012 at 6:37 pm by David FarrarI’ve blogged at Curiablog the results of the 3 News poll tonight. National is down, Labour is up and the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.
Being just 2% down from the election night result, for a poll taken during the week of non stop headlines about class sizes is not that bad a result. Imagine what they could do, if they get their game together!
What people will be looking at is whether they rebound after the u-turn (which happened after this poll was conducted), or not.
June 10th, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Sure. I can see how losing the equivalent of 90,000 votes from the last poll isn’t that bad a result.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
If all else fails, spin your way out of bad news, right David? It’s not the poll result you should be concerned about but the trend that has been emerging over the past two months
[DPF: Umm try reading what I said. I said that what will be important is the next poll result to see indeed if there is a trend]
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 6:51 pm
The rot is much deeper than just the teachers’ debacle. The public are sensing that National is out of touch with middle New Zealand and doesn’t have a plan – all it knows about is cutting costs.
The eternal tension in corporates is between accountants who want to cut costs, and marketers who want to grow revenue. Ditto in politics. If one or other gains too much control, disaster strikes.
This government is good at cutting costs (well, it was until this week). But it has no notion how to grow the economy, and hence no vision. The public has woken up to that.
Unless National can lift its game, capture public sentiment, lead the country on a genuine growth path and show that there is more to National than Key, it will be dog tucker in 2014. This week was the tipping point where the countdown began. As Mighty Kites says, its all about the trend.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 7:16 pm
It’s a long way out from the next election, but National need to have a serious look at what’s going wrong and address the problems or they will struggle to turn the trend around.
Parata’s mess certainly hasn’t helped, but there are wider problems than that, complacency that an increased number of seats and second term arrogance (of some ministers) is threatening unrecoverable rot. It isn’t terminal yet, but unless National reconnect with the electorate and be seen to be listening to more than just the high pressure issues they may keep leaking support.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 7:22 pm
The wider problem is that National is a bunch of mediocre, talentless non-entities and the only reason why they have the treasury benches now is that the other parties are even more dreadful.
I am glad my kids have left this country because it is rapidly transforming into a banana republic and anyone with any nous goes and leaves it to the wastrels in Wellington and the rapidly growing underclass
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 7:53 pm
I think National’s lack of a plan is soon going to bite them where the sun don’t shine. My recommendation? Be bold don’t just cut your way out, do some tax cutting, it’s working a treat in Sweeden, in fact they almost paid for themselves.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 8:14 pm
This poll indicates the start of the decline.
People are beginning to realise National have no policy,no direction,no desire to follow their very own principles and have allowed the export sector to bumble on to a point where many exporters are at tipping point.
Their strategy has been wrong the whole way through and now it is going to come back and bite them.
Vote:Pandering to the racists, liberals and lost souls is going to do nothing but back them into a corner that is going to be hard to emerge from here on in.
So many policies are wrong but they are now too entrenched and too arrogant to realise it.
June 10th, 2012 at 8:19 pm
No vision, no big plan. Key/English/Joyce run a series of short term strategies to retain power. Clueless vain old men. The young people can see that. And that is why they are switching off. Nobody is giving them hope. A calamitous failure of leadership all around. Only Cunliffe seems to have the guts and brains to break from the failed policies of the past 30 years.
Vote:The various muddles by Key’s lightweight sidekicks is a short-term issue.
The big issue is the repetition of failed economic policiies, resulting in continual decline: the young can see that. Cunliffe has the wherewithal to shake Wellington, Treasury, RBNZ, National and Labour out of its ongoing stupor.
June 10th, 2012 at 8:20 pm
When is this government going to wake up to the fact that research and development is grossly under funded in this country? Whether they bring in tax incentives or whatever, if this area does not get increased support we will be left behind when the World comes out of the GFC.
Vote:Why are they so slow on this basic need for the economy to grow?
June 10th, 2012 at 8:22 pm
My 2c is that National has never really been a reform party. They’ve historically promoted themselves as better managers. They then try to reform something a little controversial and can’t take the heat and back down. Roger Douglas, the best reformer this country has seen, was re-elected in 1987 after three years of hard reform. It can be done. If you have the stomach, and you sell it very well.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Not many happy thoughts here in the comments eh DPF? Where’s National’s invigorating ideas??? I guess it can’t be long til the next smear campaigns on the Opposition begin?
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 8:27 pm
There was something in the budget to piss everyone off, taxing kids paper run money for instance. National are trying to be friends to everyone, which does not work. They need to hit the targets more strategically (RAF in WW2) instead of carpet bombing (USAFin WW2). To save $60M for better teaching they should have increased the WFF thresholds more as an example, or made the min repayment from students 15%, not 12% to pay for this, rather than take a bit from everywhere. All the opposition has to say is…………. nothing, National are helping the left sleepwalk to the next election to create the first South Pacific Stalinist state.
Vote:Oh, if the MP are holding the balance of power watch as the natives get even more concessions than now. NZ, where the bludgers outnumber the productives.
As for myself, I wil not be greatly affected as I have no mortgage, want those 12% interest rates in Ponsonby, Party Vote Green then.
June 10th, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Fraid you’re right Nick. There needs to be some very heavy kick arsing.
First mining and now education. The unions did them like dinners.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 8:33 pm
So many expected so much after the last election but nothing happened.National supporters have left the party in droves.
Vote:National has been quietly destroying our fine land while focussing on the pursuit of power.
June 10th, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Adolf – fraid Nats did themselves like dinners. They have to learn some basic cooking.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Yeah this is pretty much it. A party brrought to the ascendancy on a popular leader is likely to have an equally smooth ride down under.
The electorate held their collective nose in 2008 on the promise of moderate governance. They let them have another go in 2011 (by 11 votes in west Auckland) despite popular opposition to asset sales.
Not a good position to be trying to introduce the sort of policy that you promised you wouldn’t in the first term of power.
Right bloc with a one-seat majority in this environmnt? I am seeing a change of government unless asset sales are tranquilised.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
The shift is coming straight off National to Labour in this poll, it could also mean that the Greens might yet bleed support to Labour.
Vote:I think there is an element to this of our economy not going anywhere in the electorate’s mind, all added to by the Europe situation and no soothing talk or measures from National that we are ‘all right Jack’ – a confidence thing.
Being seen to be attacking ‘institutions’ like education and police does not quieten concern, all a bit rudderless at the moment.
June 10th, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Being just 2% down from the election night result, for a poll taken during the week of non stop headlines about class sizes is not that bad a result. – DPF
The results for party vote are National 45.8 (down 4); Labour 33.2 (up 3.8)
Vote:– http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10812071&ref=rss
June 10th, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Puzzled,
That is down 4 from the previous poll, not from their election night result
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 10:24 pm
National has only itself to blame for the fall in the polls and I don’t see it turning around. I was somewhat optimistic that National would, upon taking office in 2008, implement controversial but ultimately necessary reforms to NZ’s taxes, superannuation, student loans, and working for families.
Despite National now being well into their second term, they’ve delivered nothing. And no matter which side of the asset sales debate you fall on one thing is fairly clear to everyone: In no way are asset sales going to fundamentally change NZ’s economic direction, and certainly not in the short to medium term. They may even be detrimental, who knows.
Aside from asset sales, the one other big winner that National has picked are the hugely expensive “Roads of National Significance”. National has essentially gone out and bough a lotto ticket: The RONs *may* deliver economic benefits, but it’s fairly unlikely and certainly not guaranteed. Every economist worth their salt will tell you that.
So after 5 years of National government I’m still left wondering about their economic agenda? National huffs and puffs a lot about lifting NZ’s economic performance, while simultaneously failing to implement any policies to get us there.
Zero budgets are not the same as zero leadership, but the latter is what National has delivered. So whereas I was previously somewhat optimistic about a change in government, I’m now actively pushing for a Labour led government in 2014. At least they have the guts to reform our superannuation system.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 10:29 pm
P.s. And David, you can’t compare a poll to their election night result because polls have a number of well known biases, which in TV3′s case tend to favour National. So polling 2% below their election result indicates that in the “real world” National’s support is considerably lower again. Get ready for a change in government, and a Green Minister of Transport – probably the most enlightened NZ’s ever had.
[DPF: I love the arrogance of people who declare the election result 2.5 years before the election is even due. Please keep it up]
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 11:04 pm
bhudson – I’m well aware of that, but it is likely the education issue dropped them the 4 points, not 2 as the strand intro implies.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
I don’t think National will claw back. This budget round was dominated by the education step-down and next year will be dominated by asset sales; something that 75% of the population are opposed to.
I can’t see a way out for them and thank goodness.
Look to Australia. Look to their compulsory super scheme that saved them in the GFC. Look to their high award wages. Don’t look at their mineral wealth which make up 5% of their GDP. Biggest furfy ever.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Wow – take it easy people. Given recent events a drop in poll results for National was expected.
Two and a half years is an eon in politics. If a Government is going to make a few bad judgement calls or pursue unpopular policies, now is the best time to do it (rather than closer to an election).
The next polls will be the interesting ones. This round was a no brainer.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Rock – hard place. backing down from asset sales is going to be a hard, hard sell. I don’t think they’ll get there.
they cant sell them wholesale, they won’t get back in. teh 75% of the electorate who oppose asset sales will see to that.
they cant compromise on sale terms lest they lose the predicted $7 billion. genuinely easy terms for New Zealanders (upcoming compromise) will dilute their value and blow out their predictions. This would fuck us off bigtime:
“Srry we went to market but only got $4b”
New Zealanders are going to chip off the value of the sales with cavats. That is guaranteed from a 75% opposition to asset sales.
Were either looking at a step-down and vote-out in 2014 or a ramping up of an extremely unpopular move (75% is more popular than any government every) and no National until 2030.
Vote:June 10th, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Problem, UZ 11:39pm, is that there is nothing popular left. They’ve done all they can and all that’s left is the dirty work they promised we wouldn’t see till their second term. The stuff 75% of the population oppose. Gonebugers.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 12:11 am
DPF: “What people will be looking at is whether they rebound after the u-turn (which happened after this poll was conducted), or not.”
What will who be looking at for a rebound? The people who said naughty, no”?
or the national party support base that is ok with -cutting front-line staff like teachers-?
The reaction was instant and aded to polls have showed a progressive decline.
We don’t like the right bloc. in new zealand ok?
15% difference between labour productivity and wages in nz put paid to that.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 12:22 am
Pish. Listen to all these couch critics and their total lack of expertise and perspective bleating a whole lot of grave… bullshit.
One poll and National are down a few percent. It’s pretty much a given that the government’s support will drop in a tough world economic climate into a second term. Sure Hekia didn’t sell a policy well, but that’s a pretty minor thing.
I have to laugh at ‘Stu Donovan’ ‘BillODrees’ ‘Wiseowl’ ‘Mattyman’ ‘MIghty Kites’ ‘Sam Hill’ talking of no plan.
John key’s budget debate speech laid out very thoroughly a 16 point plan for growing the economy. 16 points, all of which Labour oppose. The names above also live on ‘Planet Labour’ where jobs grow on trees and everything is a piece of piss. Labour have absolutely no idea, none whatsoever, about what they would to grow the economy. They didn’t do anything ‘game changing’ in their 9 years, suddenly transforming our export market.
Their Science bolo amounted to introducing credits, whereby institutions just changed the name of their existing acitivities and qualified without doing anything different.
Labour has no freaken plan. The only thing they would do to raise money would be to raise super and raise taxes on everybody. But that is it. Aside from that, it would be borrow and spend, and raise taxes. That isn’t leadership, as JK said, that is just passing the buck with increased borrowing, or raising taxes again so that people do everything they can to avoid paying for them just increasing the size of government and engaging in middle class welfare.
It isn’t important to return to surplus? What a joke. All the names above, more of the same Labour Greekonomics.
A capital gains tax sounds all well and good, but what are the details of that policy. Is it going to accrue to small players on the Sharemarket, making it even harder to invest? Is it just property? Is it just the ‘family’ home that is exempt? What if you don’t have a family?
National is doing a great job of maintaining benefits for people in tough times and getting back to surplus.
All these random names appearing on here frankly are idiots who live on Planet Labour where a plan is only a plan if it’s spending money on something vague, or it’s just taking it off people and giving it to the middle class.
Labour don’t give a shit about people on welfare. They would just put all those people in the dark in some shitty state house that is either too big or far too small for the individual or family and buy their vote.
I despise Labour utterly, and the no-hopers spouting their bullshit lol.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 12:34 am
Here are a few small items of what National have achieved.
The best record of any government ever in health.
A large reduction in the size of the public service without any significant attendant loss in provision of services.
A change to tax policy to get rid of the hilariously stupid decoupled company and personal tax rates, and a situation where two thirds of kiwis only pay 17.5 cents in the dollar – those are tax cuts for the plurality, never mind the idiots who want to structure a nations entire economy around being envious of the CEO of Westpac, Telecom, or Air New Zealand.
They also deincentivised more non-productive investment in property without slapping a capital gains on everything that just ties people more to the Labour market and actually hurts small investors much more then it hurts the big boys.
They’ve freed up the public service from the cronyism and political partisanship of Labour, where public servants were getting fired or not promoted based on if they did anything Labour didn’t like or slept with a nat supporter, whereby those institutions are now dynamic and self-aware, not completely stifled and utterly political.
They’ve shaken up the complacent education sector who think that 20 plus percent of kids failing basic shit is just fine, based on the fact our top end is good in relative terms internationally and lifts the plurality up.
They’ve maintained all kinds of welfare policies to help people thru the tough times, that actually are a bloody yoke on growth, like WFF and the student allowance. Those idiot students can get fucked if they think 200 weeks of free money, or about 48 grand free for an average taker, is a bad deal. The ones on Channel one with Sainsbury all need to be fucking deported.
They’ve reduced borrowing enough to look at a surplus in 2014-15, even though they were gifted with never ending deficits, for ever and ever and ever.
People are doing what the government is doing, saving, reducing spending, and earning their way, rather then borrowing their way.’
Like JK said, people with a brain and education in economics, law, finance, accounting, anything that isn’t fucking ‘politics’ (who would go to university to study fucking politics and nothing else) will look back and say thank god that National was in charge.
If only JK hadn’t said what he said about Super, and Hekia did a better job with education, this whole deal would be completely sweeeet.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 6:46 am
National have scratched off last term’s teflon and egg is starting to stick to the pan, and to the face of National. They can’t just cruise any more, they have to earn back elecorate confidence.
It will be a real test of Key’s leadership to overcome National slipping up, sliding down.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 6:59 am
I predict a major spend-fest next budget. Something like ‘The Treasury got their numbers wrong/ this is proof that ‘austerity’ worked , so suddenly we can spend up large on blah blah and etcetera.’ Labour and the Greens will clamour to pledge even more spending.
Then, having used our own money with which to bribe us, the electorate will decide whether to return National or not. I suspect they will let National do the dirty work then swing back to a left-leaning government that will then refuse to change anything the previous lot did. A bit like this government has refused to change anything the last lot did – oh apart from voting themselves another pay-rise (an issue on which there is astounding cross-party solidarity and accord).
Basically our political system is a cluster-fuck, sans lubricante… so either way it’s a waste of a vote.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 6:59 am
Key’s leadership? That’s an oxymoron. The man is spineless and flexible as chewing gum.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 7:29 am
National can recover this ground provided they do not have a disaster like the ill considered education policy. I cannot recall misreading the mood of the voters quite so much as on this one. But now that’s dealt with and the next big hurdle is the asset sales. It is not a universally popular move and the is a real opportunity for the opposition to get some traction in the media. The asset sales proceeding is not at issue but the leverage that Labour and the Greens can make off the discontent with the policy will be interesting. National look like they are moving quickly on it which makes sense as they want to get the first one at least out there and done well before the election.
Looming over them is the Spanish bail out’s probably effect on the markets. Begs the question again in such a low interest rate environment that will prevail for the next 18 months and the volatility of the equities markets is it the smartest time to get out?
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 7:29 am
The headlne VI number for NZF @ 2.8% doesn’t look flash, but I tend to track the “Winston preferred PM” as the better metric of their support. At 4.8% it’s probably enough to get them back in with the publicity of a campaign and a probable reduction in the threshold of mmp.
At a 3% threshold the NZCP may even sneak in too, probably bleeding voters from National.
There is too much in flux just now to make predictions, but I don’t see any likely outcomes that favour the present administration. They have a 1 seat majority at present, in order to govern they need to add vote share, after 6 years in office that’s close to impossible.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 7:32 am
I have no doubt this pole will be pretty accurate and think it is the result of a few things:
1. The “perfect storm” of the media, particularly the Herald never forgiving John Key for staring them down over the tea pot tapes.
2. The education reforms, which while I completely agree with the strategic thrust, could have been handled tactically much better.
3. The fact that people have forgotten what it would be like to have the alternative. When National came into power HC and Cullen had done their usual trick of hiding the true state of affairs (the massive ACC hole etc) and Treasury was predicting a decade of deficits, in fact they were saying at the current rate of irresponsible spending we would never get back in the black.
Labour and particularly the greens have never shown any proper economic policy. The batshit crazy idea of picking winners, increasing taxes and spending more was tried by the last government. If they had have stayed in power they were well on the way to bankrupting NZ.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 7:35 am
And as we seem to be pining away for another Labour government, let’s have a little reminder shall we of what they did. I hope this will put things in perspective. Bear in mind, almost everyone who did the following are still in opposition. (From a KB comment by Nick OKane.)
“At least Labour has realised they did some bad things while in Government. That’s the good news.
Now the bad news is they selected the wrong bad things. Placing caps on university entrants and approving the Pike river mine were good things. The real bad things they did (and this is a long list) are:
1) Having Jim Anderton and other MPs (quite possibly illegally) remain in Parliament after they broke the law they (and Labour) voted for requiring MPs who leave their parties to resign their seats.
2) Calling a snap election because of an extra 10 minutes a day question time (due to points of order related to the above) supposedly made Parliament unworkable.
3) Cancelling the New Plymouth by-election by retrospectively changing the law to allow Harry Duynhoven to stay in Parliament, when he had no legal right to be there (due to a previous law requiring MPs to resign if they applied for citizenship of a foreign country)- a constitutionally outrageous action.
4) Spending $800 000 on the pledge card in possibly in breach of the Public Finance Act (we will never know because Labour in point 8 passed retrospective legislation to stop the courts ruling on this area)
5) Choosing to breach the electoral act and have the pledge card come out an election time, putting their spending over the limit. And this wasn’t a simple mistake. THEY WERE WARNED THREE TIMES< YES THREE TIMES< IN WRITING BY THE CHIEF ELECTORAL OFFICER THE PLEDGE CARD WAS AN ELECTION EXPENSE.
6) Broke a lie they told to the chief electoral officer the pledge card would be included as an election expense. They told this lie to stop the public knowing of their overspending before the election.
7) Refused to pay the money back until a public outcry forced them to. Passed retrospective legislation to make the pledge card illegal, and wipe out a court case by Bernard Darnton against the pledge card for breaching the Public Finance Act (see point 4).
9) After all the above, had the gall to complain about National agreeing to a deal to repay GST owing on broadcasting money as escaping the legal consequences of its illegal actions.
10) When allegations first surfaced about Taito Philip Fields corruption, took no action
11) When a public outcry resulted from this, set up a toothless inquiry, into whether he acted improperly as a minister, and since Taito Philip Field held no portfolio for immigration, it could only find there was nothing he did wrong as a minister, and could not look at the bad things Field did outside his ministerial portfolio.
12) When the above report came back, despite listing all the bad things Field did, Labour defended him. Michael Cullen and other MPs praised Field as a model MP. Cullen saying "the only thing Field is guilty of is trying to be helpful to someone".
13) Continuing to defend Field, despite a public outcry.
14) Having Field expelled from the Labour Party, not because of his corruption, but because he threatened to stand against Labour in the 2008 election.
15) Phil Goff releasing notes taken in confidentiality from a meeting between Brash and some US congressmen, including the disputed "gone by lunchtime" quote.
16) Rewriting our election rules to their partisan political advantage in the Electoral Finance Act, which was done under then Justice Minister and now Deputy Leader Annette King.
17) Defending and standing by Winston Peters, despite all the Owen Glenn claims against him.
18) Having the government spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on advertising promoting working for families, and other achievements of its, around the 2005 election (maybe to win votes?)
This list is only unethical behaviour, and does not include bad policy, like high taxes and the anti-smacking bill. And gives Labour the benefit of the doubt on who leaked the Brash e-mails to Nicky Hager for the Hollow Men book, or the fact that Damien O’Conner had a close relationship with Field as minister of immigration, and almost definitely knew about the corruption of Field, and covered this corruption up.
What’s worse, is the list is only the beginning, and if it covered every issue, such a paintergate, Doongate, David Benson-Pope, the political interference in the sacking of Madeline Setchell, one could write a whole book. Oh wait, Ian Wishart in Absolute Power already has.
It must be our duty to ensure that this corrupt cartel never ever ever get near Government again.
Vote:One last thing. It should be remembered that they were elected in 1999 on a promise to bring new standards on ethics and integrity into government. That is one of the few promises they kept.
June 11th, 2012 at 7:36 am
David, forecasting a change in government in 2014 has nothing to do with arrogance – it’s simply an attempt to read the tea leaves, which we all like to do from time to time right? Or are you going to cast moral aspersions on all forms of forecasting from here on out? I’ve seen forecasts that were misguided, but rarely would I call them arrogant.
In this case I think I’m on fairly solid ground: if you look at Roy Morgan’s government confidence rating you will see that it has been falling steadily for a couple of years and is now below where it was when National were elected in 2008. Looking to the next election, asset sales will remain constantly in the news, constantly chipping away National’s support.
UpandComer, I do not reside on planet labour; never have never will. If I did reside on a political planet then it would probably be a green/yellow combination. I personally was optimistic that National would address issues that matter, i.e. tax (the initial switch was good but why stop there?), super, WFF, and student loans etc.
Instead all we get asset sales. Like I said above, even if asset sales have desirable effects in the long run (and even that’s disputable) it’s not exactly an economic game-changer. And nor are any of the other policies National has implemented. And that’s even before you ignore some of the white elephant holidays highways that Nationals calls “RONS”.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 7:51 am
And if anyone is interested in polling biases check out this post (and quite enlightened comments) here:
http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/more-poll-chart-porn/
Polls’ general National bias is displayed quite clearly here:
http://imgh.us/nzpolls_4.svg
Conclusion? You generally should not compare election night to poll results, because the latter are typically biased in National’s favour. Be interesting to know why … I’d suspect it’s to do with the ease with which different demographics are able to be contacted by the polling company.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 7:54 am
Unimatrix.Zero: Wow – take it easy people. Given recent events a drop in poll results for National was expected.
But it’s not just “a drop in poll results”, it’s becoming an established trend – and “recent events” are an accumulating problem.
The last three polls are all telling the same story, beware National.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 9:28 am
National 45.8% eh, well that’s still a figure that Labour and Greens can only ever dream of attaining!
Especially as Labour has fluctuated between 20 odd and 30 odd percent (and the Greens up to the mid teens) over the last FOUR years!
Dream on “grand (unworkable) coalition of the left” dreamers!
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 9:34 am
How is this poll ‘just 2% down on the election night result’?
The 3 news poll just prior to the election had National at 53% now the poll has National at 46%, so that is 7% down.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 9:37 am
All I can see is a bunch of people saying National has no plan yet they offer no ideas of what they would do. Come on then people, put forward what you think Natioonal should be doing? You all sound like a bunch of lefties who say we need a growing export led economy yet put forward very few ideas as to how to achieve it. Despite what Labour and the Greens have us believe the world economy is in the can and there is only so much the government can do. It is misleading to suggest the government can somehow wave a wand and make us grow 5% a year. Ain’t gonna happen. All they can do is make the economy a good environment for businesses to grow. national on the whole seems to be doing this.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 9:51 am
The 3 News poll was not done on election day, and did not allow all voters to participate. And it was obviously inaccurate. So “7% down” is meaningless.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 10:02 am
@Peter George – just as meaningless as DPF saying 2% down and John Key claiming on TVNZ breakfast that polls show the governments support is about the same as the election, they don’t. The One & 3 News polls at the election both over estimated Nationals support by about 7% and both polls have fallen by about that amount since the election, so the only conclusion that makes any sense is that National’s support has fallen by a reasonable amount since the election.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
It would be interesting to know how people really feel about John Key’s support of the gay marriage and gay adoption issues. I believe that one of the defining election issues that turned off much of the electorate was the rainbow agenda of the previous labour government. Now the National party, supposedly a Conservative party, is being perceived as taking the rainbow agenda and running with it. I mean even Helen Clark made noises about not wanting to disturb the sanctity of marriage (by allowing gays to marry). So even Helen Clark stopped at civil unions.
I suspect there is a ground swell of Conservative opposition to John Key’s perceived stance on this issue. Many were dissatisfied that National has done nothing about repealing the anti-smacking legislation, which 85% of New Zealand opposed. John Key has got to realise that much of his core support are the Conservative ordinary people of New Zealand. Not the Chardonnay socialists that inhabit the corridors of power.
Doing nothing about reversing the social engineering of the labour government years could be tolerated as long as National was perceived about concentrating on the economy and getting the economy right. Now if they are going to actually advance the rainbow agenda of the Labour Party then they are going to strike significant opposition from their conservative voter base. And that may be part of the explanation of their decline in the polls.
Vote:June 11th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
All good Mr Stu Donovan. I wish that a right wing government could abolish interest free student loans from now on, get rid of WFF, lift super and all the rest of it too. The reality is, if they do any of those things, they will lose the next election in a landslide because people in NZ won’t accept those policies being removed.
Asset sales are a good idea. The only reason so many people oppose them is because they are economically illiterate. If someone provides a good argument against the sales that is macro and micro economically accurate, that’s great.
So far, no one has provided one of those arguments. We’ve established that people won’t suffer anything of true substance to be cut.
Thus asset sales are the only alternative to just borrowing borrowing borrowing borrowing.
Those companies are changing how they run for the better just with the prospect of having shareholders.
I run with powershop finally, and I can say my power bills have never been so low, even though my consumption is higher then ever.
People underestimate just how much this government has done to completely change the culture of spending that prevailed for the past decade.
That in itself is a game-changer. Until NZ can start to spend within it’s means and run surpluses again, you are never ever ever going to be able to what no government has done in 60 years in NZ and turn us into Singapore or Norway.
Also, I have no idea how you can claim to be an Act/Green supporter. They are diametrically opposed on everything – that sounds like a pretty incoherent political colouring to me, some kind of poo coloured orange.
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