An Australian election calculator

March 19th, 2013 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

has launched his 2013 election calculator. Antony is the premier election analyst in .

It makes predictions for all 150 seats on the basis of either the swing or two party preferred vote. But it has some additional nifty features.

  • Can select the results from a recent poll
  • Can set individual swings for each state (and swings do not tend to be uniform across the country)
  • Can factor in retiring MPs
  • Can over-ride the projected result in a few marginal seats

On the latest (Neilsen) poll Labor is projected to lose 25 seats and win 47 while the Coalition is projected to gain 25 seats and win 98.

On the best poll to date for the Coalition, they would win 110 seats to 35 for Labor.

One can see why some of the Labor MP are thinking the unthinkable and Rudd may challenge again.

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8 Responses to “An Australian election calculator”

  1. flipper (3,562 comments) says:

    Ahhhh.
    But will Conroy be among those hung on the picket fence?

    Cruxifiction would not be appropriate. A thousand cuts might suffice.

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  2. tvb (4,208 comments) says:

    The late change to Rudd would be the ultimate cynical move thinking they really really want Rudd. If their gamble worked what assurance could they give the electorate that Rudd would last the distance into the next Parliament as Prime Minister. What is to stop the Union heavies as they did last time in getting rid of Rudd at the time of their choosing. Such bad blood was spilled during the last challenge that all that could be replayed out. Some of the comments were so strong from Senior Colleagues about Rudd’s mental fitness that it would raise serious questions about Rudd’s suitability. They are in a real mess and there is no way out except to soldier on and focus on the business of Government.

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  3. PaulL (5,873 comments) says:

    My view is that it’s closer than that, but they are definitely pushing for a Rudd return. The media and the left-leaning commentariat have worked out that Labor are toast if Gillard remains, and have started pushing for a change. Thoughts on my blog, I don’t think it will happen this week, and I reckon it’s just the media agitating for it. Refer my blog: http://technpol.wordpress.com/

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  4. freemark (450 comments) says:

    What of the Greens?? With any luck they will recall Norman permanently to water the sprouts.

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  5. All_on_Red (1,368 comments) says:

    I dont think it matters whether its Gillard, Rudd or even Shorten. Labor are screwed bigtime over there. The damage they have done to the Australian economy and freedoms is outrageous. They are looking at a $27 billion deficit this year when Swan last Nov was predicting a surplus of $1.5 Bio….

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  6. Shazzadude (505 comments) says:

    I give Labor a 1% chance of winning if Gillard is leader, and a 35% chance if Rudd is leader. I think Rudd would be worth a minimum of 10 seats more than Gillard.

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  7. Shazzadude (505 comments) says:

    “freemark (139) Says:

    March 19th, 2013 at 11:38 am
    What of the Greens?? With any luck they will recall Norman permanently to water the sprouts.”

    The Greens are in a bit of trouble in Australia. They’ve had negative swings in every state election, and they’re on the verge of losing a couple of senators. They’ll have a tough fight keeping Melbourne also, with indications the Liberals will preference Labor over the Greens.

    Also, Antony Green is a brilliant political commentator, if only we had someone of his quality in New Zealand.

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  8. Neil (556 comments) says:

    Just look at Queensland where Labor is virtually wiped out-only Rudd survives with a miniscule majority.
    Gillard seems to be leading a government that seems to be self destructing. She has tried everything including the dirt. She is over and out. Talking to Aussies there is a loathing of Gillard’s govt.
    Aussies are essentially conservative people with more of a penchant to vote LNP. Remember the great Gough Whitlam and how the electorate treated him after the 1974 dismissal.
    If Rudd replaces Gillard look for a marginally better result- perhaps 1%. Countries don’t like to see dissension in the ranks of a party so Rudd will not save their bacon. Similar to NZ when Moore replaced Palmer in 1990

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