Bagrie on NZ economy

May 20th, 2013 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

While parts of the rest of the world are still wallowing in recession, New Zealand in recent months has had a significant number of economic bright spots that could see the country reach “rock star status” within the next four years.

That was the view of ANZ bank chief economist speaking at a post Budget luncheon briefing in Christchurch yesterday.

We’re modest people and don’t like to talk ourselves up, but when you look at the mess Europe, US, Japan is in – we’re doing pretty well. Standard and Poors put us in the top 10 most stable economies.

“I’m progressively getting a lot more upbeat about New Zealand’s economic prospects,” he said.

Through recent changes as a result of the global financial crisis, New Zealand had stolen a “three year march” on Australia, which had not “changed a thing” as a result of the crisis.

The mining boom across the Tasman had peaked and the Australians were seeing a distinct lack of economic and political leadership, with the country looking “a pretty dire place”.

Bagrie said New Zealand was being re-rated by the world.

“New Zealand has made some massive inroads in that game in the past three or four years. [If] we continue to do so, we are going to have rock star status in the growth space internationally at some stage in the next four years.

Unless we make the great leap backwards to the 1970s with printing money and nationalisation of companies.

Tags: ,

27 Responses to “Bagrie on NZ economy”

  1. Nostalgia-NZ (5,040 comments) says:

    That’s what I like to hear.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. RRM (9,639 comments) says:

    rock star status in the growth space internationally at some stage in the next four years

    Remember when Ireland had “rock star growth”? I hope we’re not on a path like that…

    And FFS… “rock star status in the growth space internationally”… ENGLISH, MOTHERFUCKER! DO YOU SPEAK IT?

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 6 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. Manolo (13,516 comments) says:

    Another reason for NZ not to elect the deadly, unholy Labour-Luddite alliance, tantamount to committing economic suicide.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 22 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Warren Murray (293 comments) says:

    Would be good to see improvement in the current account.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. Cunningham (828 comments) says:

    The more articles like this, the more inclined that ppl will stick with a National government. Why would you want to change tack when there so many positive stores about NZ at the moment? Esp to an opposition that has vowed to go down a very risky path. Labour and the communist Green s will be worried with all these articles. Here is another good one:

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/8693526/Australia-pays-for-not-living-within-its-means

    Vote: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. kowtow (7,932 comments) says:

    I’d say it’s more of a least worst situation than “we’re fucking marvellous”.

    Too much depends on China. Diversity in markets is very important,if China dumps,then so does Australia and NZ.That woul be a double whammy against us.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. alloytoo (463 comments) says:

    Increasingly the opposition appears to be peddling solutions looking for problems.

    Increasingly “The End Is Nigh” rhetoric just doesn’t ring true.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. skyblue (205 comments) says:

    As I said in GD.

    Since the NZD is falling against the USD (now around 0.805 vs 0.84 a few weeks ago) it seems that the NZD may be going thru re-balancing means that we can export at better margins. Another nail in the Labour/Green financial credentials thinking money printing is the way to financial prosperity. I guess this will help hasten the end of the manufactured ‘Manufacturing Crisis’ that was all the rage 3 months ago.

    NZ is doing well at present despite negative press from the press/LAB/GRE.

    I know who will be better stewards for the NZ economy. It certainly is not Norman Parker:).

    Now we need to exploit some of our wealth underground. No co-incidence Taranaki has low uneuployment while the East Coat has high unemployment.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Cunningham (828 comments) says:

    kowtow true but who else are we supposed to rely on at the moment? We are making inroads into Asia but China is just so big that if they turned to shit of course we will be heavily affected. As for the rest of the world, they are hardly flying along are they? At least we produce a heap of food though, ppl still have to eat.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. Cunningham (828 comments) says:

    alloytoo (154) you are absolutely right. They are peddling these more and more extreme policies when what the country needs (and you will hear business say this again and again) is stability. Extreme solutions should be a last resort not a way to try and get elected.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. Viking2 (11,266 comments) says:

    Have listened to Bagrie several times. Consider he has the best handle on NZ of any of the bank people.

    He warned about France going and that is for the future.

    Doesn’t rush into weekly print t the behest of some reporter like a couple of the others do.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. queenstfarmer (755 comments) says:

    The more articles like this, the more inclined that ppl will stick with a National government

    They should, but unfortunately more & more people are falling for the “I want free stuff” mindset promoted by Labour & the Greens. More benefits, more handouts, more subsidies now = more votes and to hell with the consequences.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. mandk (875 comments) says:

    Viking2,
    Bagrie may be the best of the bank economists, but I think Eaqub of NZIER is better.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. pollywog (1,153 comments) says:

    Bit short on specifics there sport…

    “Rockstar” isn’t a sustainable “career”.

    Rebuilding a broken city isn’t an economic brightspot.

    What else you selling apart from snakeoil?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 14 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. hmmokrightitis (1,569 comments) says:

    CB brings huge credibility to the game, and, not least of all, no political bias, as could sadly not be said of another commentator in the field who is now ‘famous’ for his predictions of doom in the housing market.

    Wonder if he will refresh those now that gubbermint is starting to act and the word ‘bubble’ is being bandied around.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. Paulus (2,559 comments) says:

    Sadly we cannot change MMP which will ultimately destroy what is good in our economy.
    Greenpeace introduced MMP and now after over 20 years they are set to reap their reward, with Labour puppeting alongside.
    Labour cannot get the power they again crave without the Greens, and the Greens will extract every ounce of flesh from Labour to achieve the real control.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. skyblue (205 comments) says:

    Gollywog – nobody asked for the EQ. But I remember in 2005 the greens saying Hurricane Katrina was a good thing as it meant employment for people to rebuild New Orleans. Great allocation of resources thoughts ah!!!!!!
    Mick Jagar has been pretty sustainable for 50 years.
    Our manufactured ‘manufacturing crisis’ by fruit meet loops seems to have died a death, with the NZD falling we will only export more. We did not even have to get the Heidelberg out to decrease the NZD.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. kowtow (7,932 comments) says:

    cunningham

    Yes sell to China and make hay while the sun shines as it were.But people must be aware that it will not go on forever and a bust always follows a boom. We need to be prepared for that.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. flipper (3,838 comments) says:

    Probably the best economic/political evaluator (in terms of theoretical, practical, international and, more recently, NZ, experience) is Oliver Hartwich who now runs The New Zealand Initiative.

    Hartwich dominated Q+A yesterday to such an extent that the programme’s labour/green idiot producers will probably never invite him back.

    There is not one NZ political, academic or economic commentator who can match Hartwich, excepting perhaps two other NZ Initiative fellows, Bryce Wilkinson and Luke Malpass. They do not flaunt their PhDs and other quals like battle pennants. They just tell it like it is …as does Bagrie and most of the bank economists.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. Cunningham (828 comments) says:

    flipper (1,635) he was good but seriously why do they invite people like Minto and Bradford on that show? I don’t mind having a left perspective but they might as well invite Kim Jong-un to be on the panel. Bradford and Minto are so brainwashed that they will just oppose anythijng National did regardless of merit.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. alloytoo (463 comments) says:

    @Polly

    I’m sure any number of us can name “Rockstars” who have sustained significant careers through the simple basics of hard work building brand & markets.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. flipper (3,838 comments) says:

    Cunningham …

    Don’t get me started on Bradford, Minto, Kelly, McCarten et al.

    They read the script prepared for them by Q+A’s left wing producers because they don’t have the brains to think for themselves. :)

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. pollywog (1,153 comments) says:

    Jagger is shit, as is most dinosaur rockstars from back in your fellas days.

    How many rockstars have borrowed their way to sustainably etching out a “career” and are still turning out hits?

    Are you guys so incapable of critical analysis you just buy any old snakeoil whatever nutjob economist du jour is peddling ?

    Whats the significant economic bright spots we’ve had recently or even some of the massive inroads in that game in the past three or four years?

    What game is he playing…Blind mans bluff?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 11 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. OneTrack (2,813 comments) says:

    “Why would you want to change tack when there so many positive stores about NZ at the moment”

    You might if, you were so economically illiterate that you think Russel Norman sounds logical on the TV, or you just want more free stuff, or you think voting for Labour/Green means everything will stay exactly the same but you’ll keep your assets.

    How many people do you know would fall into one of those categories, especially the last one?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. pollywog (1,153 comments) says:

    positive stories about NZ at the moment

    Yeah but they’re just stories.

    You got facts on the significant economic bright spots we’ve had recently or even some of the massive inroads in that game in the past three or four years?

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 3 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. Jack5 (4,875 comments) says:

    Yeah, but….

    The IMF is warning some of our banks they’re likely to be downrated, our current account deficit is unhealthily high and climbing, our export industries are being hammered, foreign experts talk of our property market being 25 per cent overvalued, our unemployment rate is soon to be boosted by the return of jobless Kiwis from Australia, our second biggest market, Australia, is economically sick.

    We’ve swung in four decades from being an economy pulled by the two horses of sheep and cow products for the British market to a one-horse economy pulled by the horse of cow products for the Chinese market.

    You have to wonder if the banks are talking things up to cover their own arses with billions out on 95 per cent mortgages. Sort of matches politicians, whose view of the economy tends to depend on whether they are in power or in Opposition.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. Dean Papa (782 comments) says:

    “We’re modest people and don’t like to talk ourselves up …”

    Indeed, we are world famous for our modesty. We are also the undisputed world champions of humility, are we not? Both modest and humble, it’s lucky we have Brain Blessed to do all our skiting for us!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.