2013 Australian election thread

September 7th, 2013 at 7:14 pm by David Farrar

The exit polls to date show there will clearly be a change of Government. Roy Morgan currently has it as:

  • Coalition 42.5%
  • ALP 33.5%
  • Greens 11.5%
  • Palmer 5.0%

On a TPP basis they have Coalition 52% to 48%. That would see the Coalition with 83 seats to 60. If Palmer preferences go more strongly towards the Coalition then they say it is 53.5% to 46.5% and 88 seats to 59.

The Sky News/Newspoll exit poll has it 53% to 47% for the Coalition TPP and projects Coalition 97 seats (+25), Labor 51 seats (-21), Greens 0 (-1) and Independents 2 (-3). Their primary vote is Coalition 45%, Labor 36%, Greens 8%.

These are just exit polls. Actual results should start around 8 pm. It is possible that Labor could lose every seat in Queensland including Rudd’s. His seat is being tagged too close to call on the exit poll. Do remember that exit polls can of course be wrong if they are taken in unrepresentative polling booths. Also seat projections are based on linear swings, and normally there is considerable variability from one seat to another in how much they swing. So don’t jump to any conclusions before we actually get some results in.

I’ll try to update this post when there is significant news, but will mainly be tweeting.

UPDATE: And it’s all over. Sky News now has it Coalition 76 and Labor 46. Abbott is now PM-Elect!

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16 Responses to “2013 Australian election thread”

  1. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,810 comments) says:

    Congrats to Tony Abbott on the massive victory.

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  2. RightNow (6,642 comments) says:

    Official results here (when they get some) http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Default.htm

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  3. Mobile Michael (410 comments) says:

    Interesting watching the political party guests on Sky News urging people to vote for at risk candidates before the polls close.

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  4. jaba (2,089 comments) says:

    well done to Abbott BUT, as in NZ, the Gweens have double figures .. seems there are as many nutters in Oz as in NZ

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  5. thor42 (900 comments) says:

    Well done to Tony Abbott!
    *At last*, after six years, the scum-sucking socialists have been returned to the sewers where they belong.

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  6. thor42 (900 comments) says:

    Live updates here –
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/

    Coalition is now at 68 seats – 76 are needed to win, so they only need 8 more.
    Goodbye and good riddance to the socialists.

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  7. NK (1,060 comments) says:

    That anti-emission, staunch environmentalist, Gareth Hughes, has flown to Melbourne to join the Greens celebrations/commiserations.

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  8. RandySavage (196 comments) says:

    Nobody deserves humiliating defeat more than the vain little muppet Rudd
    If theres a god he will lose his seat as well

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  9. PaulL (5,872 comments) says:

    Not as big a swing as many (myself included) expected. Postal votes will matter, and the Senate is likely to be crazy.

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  10. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,810 comments) says:

    Kevin Rudd concedes election, top stuff.

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  11. Jim (395 comments) says:

    Happy to see Rudd is not PM.

    Now, back to the NZ Labour leadership contest: may the most intemperate, immodest, shameless one win!

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  12. UpandComer (506 comments) says:

    Riffs speech was interminable and awful I thought he was going to talk about high school and his pet cat and his Chinese comrade supporters and world backers etc etc and cunliffe is even more pompous. Ah well good

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  13. SPC (5,334 comments) says:

    It was not really decisive as there was no win in the Senate.

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  14. hj (6,330 comments) says:

    The boat people seem to be an important issue judging by the screaming from the left.

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  15. kiwi in america (2,431 comments) says:

    There are some fascinating twists and quirks arising from the Aussies’ preferential voting system and the proportional way the Senate gets elected. 2nd preferences make a difference and they clearly ensured the election of the vulnerable single House of Reps Green MP. Labor vacated the left leaning boat people arrivals policy ground ceding it to the Greens entirely who exploited Rudd’s flip flop quite effectively.

    Rudd’s toppling of Gillard, notwithstanding the bad result for Labor overall, achieved the desired result – that of staunching what was predicted to be an absolute slaughter. Under Gillard the Labor primary vote got as low as 26% and, after a resurgence in 2012, was constantly undermined by Rudd’s sniping ambitions. Most people I spoke to in Australia were fed up with Labor’s antics and the stench of corruption in the NSW party was another heavy drag. The Sky News exit polls were off though as Labor held all Queensland seats and the loss of key cabinet ministers’ seats in western Sydney did not eventuate. That said it was still a very strong victory for Abbott!!

    The Senate system has brought some interesting micro parties into the Senate and Clive Palmer’s Party’s presence has left Abbott with a potentially tricky coalition to assemble to get legislation through the Senate. Lets hope Abbott can restore economic strength and confidence as trading conditions in Australia were getting increasingly tough. We are due to launch a trucking industry product into Australia in Q2 2014 and we were getting nervous about economic trends.

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  16. Ian McK (237 comments) says:

    Good to see these left-wing losers get what they deserve. Hope people here remember the debacle we are seeing, along with squandering of taxpayers’ money, in this joke of a Labour selection process to pick the biggest loser out of three no-hopers. This defies logic, and common decency, when they are preaching fairness . . . bloody hypocrites.

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