Modelling the Labour Members vote

September 11th, 2013 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

Okay, I’ve now done a very speculative model of how the Labour membership vote may go. Please do not take this as a prediction. What I’m trying to do is identify the factors that could influence the vote and see what that might look like. There are so many assumptions involved, that it can not be regarded as any sort of prediction.

The first thing one has to do is work out the relative membership in each electorate. Sadly (but understandably) Labour won’t tell me, so what I have done is make assumptions based on the total party and electorate vote each electorate got at the 2011 election, and proportion them out on the basis of total votes over 9,000 (which is basically your weakest electorate). If someone wants to supply me with actual membership numbers happy to update the assumptions!

Labelects

 

I’ve assumed 7,000 members (so average per electorate is 100), but that doesn’t matter, what matters is the relative size of each electorate (assuming they all have same voting turnout).

Next one has to assume how they will vote. Now this is like reading tea leaves, and not much more scientific. But can make some assumptions. Here is what I did:

 Cunliffe  Jones  Robertson Cunliffe  Robertson
Other 45.0% 22.0% 33.0% 57.7% 42.3%
Auckland 65.0% 14.0% 21.0% 75.6% 24.4%
Wellington 24.9% 12.1% 63.0% 28.3% 71.7%
Christchurch 31.6% 15.4% 53.0% 37.3% 62.7%
Dunedin 31.6% 15.4% 53.0% 37.3% 62.7%
Maori 27.7% 52.0% 20.3% 57.7% 42.3%

So for most electorates, I assumed Cunliffe 45%, Robertson 33% and Jones 22%, based on general acknowledgement that Cunliffe has more support from members.

But in Auckland I give Cunliffe a 20% boost, in Wellington Robertson a 30% boost and a 20% boost for Robertson in Christchurch and Dunedin. And Jones gets a 30% boost in the Maori electorates.

Then there is one further adjustment. If the electorate has an MP who is a supporter of one candidate, that gives that candidate an additional 30% boost. That is based on the reality that the local MP will have significant influence on their members. This is not like the UK where the number of voters was hundreds of thousands. In each electorate it may be a few dozen only and the MP will have influence. Some MPs such as Goff and Mallard probably have more influence over their electorates than a new MP, but I’m assuming a 30% endorsement factor for each.

So what that does give us as a model for each electorate.

labelectvote

 

Now what do you get when you multiply each vote by their assumed strength.

  • Cunliffe 45.4%
  • Jones 13.1%
  • Robertson 41.5%

And if you assumes Jones second preferences flow the same as other’s first preferences:

  • Cunliffe 53.0%
  • Robertson 47.0%

I’ll reveal tomorrow the updated model for each section (caucus, unions and members) and what the overall model is projecting for the total vote.

 

Tags:

29 Responses to “Modelling the Labour Members vote”

  1. PaulL (5,449 comments) says:

    Good work here DPF. As you say, the actual numbers aren’t the critical bit, it’s the thinking about what influences who to vote in which way, which gives insight into the process. Other people could make different assumptions and come to a different answer, but giving a model for why you think as you do is awesome.

    The next question is, if you were David Cunliffe, how would you use these factors to your advantage? If we know that the odl guard have more influence over their electorates than the newcomers, how do you get those people to directly influence their electorates, as an example. Could be that you’re starting a new round of infighting here!!

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. DT (104 comments) says:

    I think that the active lobbying that MPs are doing – claiming that they have inside knowledge, and deigning to share in exchange for sway – is being relied on heavily by the Robertson faction. Some MPs crossing lines that they really shouldn’t. Undermines the process irredeemably.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. redguarded (3 comments) says:

    I thought Whaitiri endorsed Jones

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Chuck Bird (4,910 comments) says:

    I think it will be very interesting if Robertson is elected leader. He definitely will be caught out on more blainant lies.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. Tautaioleua (324 comments) says:

    So much for Shearer not voting on his successor huh? Mt Albert is heartland Auckland. He should be voting for Cunliffe and not for some Wellingtonian with nothing short of a lifelong obsession with the public sector.

    :-)

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. anonymouse (705 comments) says:

    If the party pool of 40% only goes to Cunliffe by 53 to 47 then basically the Unions will determine the final outcome of this,

    Robertson will lead in the Caucus vote, and will probably be slightly ahead if you combined the Union and Caucus ( based on this), so Its up to the Unions,

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. Keeping Stock (9,381 comments) says:

    You must be on the money DPF; your old mate Hey Clint Smith is trying to make people look the other way:

    Clint Smith ‏@ClintVSmith 6m

    Farrar’s Labour leadership numbers remind me of Roads of National Significance traffic forecasts: wild assumption piled on wild assumption

    Then again, Clint’s probably got enough on his plate right now trying to undo the damage that Metiria has caused with her comments about home owners:

    Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei is backtracking on comments she made last night that people who own homes will have to take a financial hit if prices are to become affordable again.

    During the taping of the latest episode of The Vote, which airs tonight, Ms Turei said: “Those holding on to wealth now will have to prepare to let some of it go.”

    Perhaps fearing a backlash from homeowners, Ms Turei this morning said her comments were a “mistake”.

    “It’s not our intention to reduce the equity that people currently hold in their homes,” she said on Firstline this morning.

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/Turei-backtracks-on-housing-mistake/tabid/1607/articleID/312732/Default.aspx#ixzz2eYIw147R

    “Hey Clint, are we pleased that Metiria wants to see the value of people’s assets plunge?”

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    Why have we included some list mps, but not others ?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. seerob1946 (24 comments) says:

    Will be good if Robertson get it.. breaks the Auckland stranglehold on all the politics which is what is wrong with the country….

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. Ed Snack (1,940 comments) says:

    To be sure, Metiria’s “mistake” was to say that out loud rather than simply scheme to make it so.

    Private property in the hands of the general population must be stamped out if the Green’s are to really be able to properly control the country.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    Metiria’s “mistake” was actually telling the truth.

    If you want to make houses cheaper, then those who own them now will see a decline in the value of their assets.

    This is an obvious truth, and of course the reason why both Labour and National are attempting to pretend to reduce house prices whilst doing nothing meaningful. To do so is politically toxic.

    All the bruhaha about house prices is just for show

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 6 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    My guess is that Robertson will squeak in due to caucus’ loathing of Cunliffe.

    The winner at the next election will inevitably be the non-voting portion of the electorate, as many Labour voters will stay at home.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    Has anyone looked at the ipredict markets for this? They seem very out of whack.

    It suggests a 13.4% probability of Grant Robertson wining the leadership, which looks pretty fair to me, but a 37% likelihood of Jacinda Arden being deputy leader. I’d have thought these were pretty much related contingencies, the market seems to suggest a reasonable probability that Cunliffe has Arden as deputy.

    Is this possible as a unity olive branch ? Surely he’d have other people he needs to reward.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. Black with a Vengeance (1,868 comments) says:

    Wherever do you find the time DPF ?

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 5 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. MikeG (425 comments) says:

    You forgot to put in the margin of error of +/- 50%

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Ardern is very popular among Labour voters. My guess is that deputy would be a one horse race.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. Alan (1,087 comments) says:

    Should she be given the reins Tom ?

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Horsing around aside, I hope she stays in parliament.

    She’s an islet of semi-hittability in an erection free zone.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. nickb (3,696 comments) says:

    Ardern is very popular among Labour voters. My guess is that deputy would be a one horse race.

    LMAO!!!!. Was that intentional?

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. Tom Jackson (2,553 comments) says:

    Come on. She’s the odds on favourite.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. Roflcopter (467 comments) says:

    I bet she’s chomping at the bit to get into the role.

    Vote: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. Duxton (658 comments) says:

    nickb, you bastard. I just sprayed wine all over my laptop.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. Duxton (658 comments) says:

    You too, roflcopter.

    So if Labour wins in 2014, the DPM will either be Winnie or Whinney (the latter pronounced with a shake of the head and a harruumphh!!!).

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. bhudson (4,741 comments) says:

    Ardern is very popular among Labour voters. My guess is that deputy would be a one horse race.

    If the caucus elect Ardern as deputy to Cunliffe then then Machiavellian rumours are correct and they are setting him up to be rolled within 6-9 months.

    Apparently they can’t stand each other.

    (Which would also show that the ABC’s – incl Robertson – are happy to lose another election to get Robertson into the top spot.)

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. Manolo (14,173 comments) says:

    But DPF will be very, very happy since he is an ardent Ardern fan, friend, and promoter. :-)

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. NK (1,259 comments) says:

    Off topic: That wasn’t a mistake by Turei. That is how the communists think and what they believe. She is now backtracking because of all the middle class green urban liberals with million dollar villas in Ponsonby who vote for them.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (900 comments) says:

    Curryleaf is having a good laugh at your expense folks. He knows he is going to win big time. He will unite the Labourers. Give John Key a run for his money, win 2014 election, increase taxes, increase spending. Keep everybody happy.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. Richard29 (377 comments) says:

    “If the caucus elect Ardern as deputy to Cunliffe then then Machiavellian rumours are correct and they are setting him up to be rolled within 6-9 months.”

    Nah – whoever wins they are stuck with them till election 2014. I’d also expect that Cunliffe won’t really be able to do a clean out of the old guard until then.

    The real Machiavellian approach would be to give Deputy, Economic Development and Health portfolios to his three strongest opponents in caucus as a show of unity and then after the election kick them to the backbenches and hand those portfolios out to the Greens and claim he had no choice and it was forced on him in coalition negotiations.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. tvb (4,556 comments) says:

    Arden is more likely to be Deputy to Robertson. I fail to see her in a major portfolio. Could she do finance for instance. If she cannot do that why should she expect to be Deputy Leader. Cunliffe wants to get rid of the old guard. Robertson probably does as well but he will take a softer approach to it.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote