Fairfax poll breakdowns

February 15th, 2014 at 4:00 pm by David Farrar

Some interesting data in the breakdown of the Fairfax poll. Now note that these can be small sample sizes with high margins of error. But still some value in them.

I’ve listed National’s support from the strongest to weakest demographics:

  • 65+ yr olds 55.5%
  • Men 53.6%
  • 45 – 64 52.6%
  • Lower NI 50.6%
  • Auckland 50.2%
  • Upper NI 49.8%
  • All 49.4%
  • South Island (rest) 49.1%
  • Canterbury 47.8%
  • Wellington 47.3%
  • 30 – 46 46.1%
  • Women 45.7%
  • 18 – 29 40.6%

The interesting thing about those breakdowns is that older voters always turn out in much greater proportions than younger voters. Also interesting how strong Auckland is for National.

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26 Responses to “Fairfax poll breakdowns”

  1. Ed Snack (1,833 comments) says:

    And not surprising how relatively low Wellington is; for a city addicted to government “action” and spending (with concomitant taxation) that support is actually higher than I would have expected.

    I wonder though, why is it so hard to get significantly over 50% in this environment! is it that there is always a series of groups who feel aggrieved and who feel that they would gain at others expense if the government changed ?

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  2. Pete George (23,426 comments) says:

    The interesting thing about those breakdowns is that older voters always turn out in much greater proportions than younger voters.

    And that highlights one of Labour’s problems. In the 45+ age groups they only have 28% support, with more in 18-29 at 35.3% and 30-44 at 37.9%

    Greens are much higher in 18-29 at 13.2% and as the ages go up their support goes down – 10.8 – 9.5 – 7.1

    NZF heavily leans 65+ 7.1% dropping to 3.9 to 2.6 to 1.7 for 18-29 year olds.

    Fairfax are very slack only publishing results for the biggest four parties. The small parties are likely to decide the final outcome so it’s important to have an idea how they are going. By excluding them from results they are in effect influencing interest towards the larger parties.

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  3. tvb (4,315 comments) says:

    Auckland can see the progress in their contested roads. The Greens will bring a halt to that. Helen Clark scandalously blocked the extension in the motorway through her electorate. It merely delayed it. There are so come side issues such as KDC And Len Brown. But above all the economy is picking up and that is flowing into house prices.

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  4. Akaroa (552 comments) says:

    Not altogether surprised at your interest and comments concerning many Auckland voters being National oriented.

    I moved to Akl from Wgtn five years ago after working in a Government department for more years than I care to mention.

    I soon noticed an absence, in Auckland folk I interacted with, of the Government/Oppostion/political-oriented comments and casual insider references that were part of everyday workplace conversation in Wellington.

    Not surprising really, Wellington being a Government city first and foremost, whereas Aucklanders have wider interests than ‘who is sticking it to who in Parliament/Government today’ and ‘how soon Labour are going/not going to get into office again’. And that seems to translate into a Nat-oriented tendency.

    A refreshing change, too, to be amongst a population who do not place politics at the top of every conversational exchange!!

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  5. dime (9,799 comments) says:

    Aucklanders tend to have huge mortgages and the thoughts of tax increases scare the shutout of them.

    Labour are obsessed with top lines..mwhether it be revenue for companies for gross incomes for people.

    A 35 year old earning 100k a year with a 500k mortgage ain’t rich.

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  6. Joanne (177 comments) says:

    Interesting.

    48.5% support the breeding bribe but 69.4% oppose raising taxes. Borrowing is dodgy territory. Do the supporters of breeding bride just not see a link between spending and taxation?

    As the year progresses, it can only get worse for Labour/Greens because they will need to promise more. Maybe that’s why Norman has been visiting Dotcom – to learn how to buying votes by spending lots when you are in the financial poo.

    National will be the government in 2015 by just doing what they have done in the last few years. Labour can’t govern without Norman and Norman is the biggest liability.

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  7. Huevon (213 comments) says:

    The men/women split is disappointing to see. Sadly more women than men seem to be tempted by the socialist welfare checks.

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  8. AM1 (15 comments) says:

    It appears that socialism is something that people grow out of. Like Santa, but much later.

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  9. SPC (5,537 comments) says:

    Or to note the unvarnished truth.

    1. Key’s promise not to increase the age or change super payment rates is paying off.
    2. Older voters are the better off and on higher incomes and prefer a lower tax party in government.
    3. Older voters are less concerned by unaffordable housing as they already own.
    4. Women are more concerned about the cost of raising families and supportive of policies to assist those doing so.

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  10. Harriet (4,771 comments) says:

    » 18 – 29 40.6%

    40% of the lowest demographic supports JK. And they’re the type of voters who will get out and actually – it’s the lofo’s that Cunliffe is trying his hardest to attract who will stay at home. – 50% or so of the other 60%!

    All other groups will get out as they have a lot of wealth to protect, and will not be prepared to place that wealth at risk for a minimimal annual income increase by voting for Labour. If they’re lucky to recieve one that is.

    Key and the Conservatives will win by a landslide. :cool:

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  11. kowtow (8,154 comments) says:

    Women are more used to and expect to be ,provided for.

    Older voters are more experienced and have more sense than younger ones.

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  12. marcw (242 comments) says:

    I know other NZers are sick of hearing about it, but those of us that have to live the frustration daily in Christchurch related to EQC and insurance companies will know why support in this area is reduced. Gerry is not helping, and National will probably lose Waimakariri and Christchurch Central seats in this year’s elections. Both had small National majorities in 2011, and the incumbents have not covered themselves in glory since (you would be stretched even be able to name them in fact.) …for the record, Wilkinson (retiring), and um… oh I give up.

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  13. Manolo (13,517 comments) says:

    Oh, dear. Ought to be devastating news for the delicate, limp-wristed, Lynn Prentice and his mob at The sub-Standard.

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  14. duggledog (1,496 comments) says:

    Dime, I know a guy in Auckland in exactly that category; I’ll give you some details –

    35, ex-provincial, married with a 2 year old and another one on the way; I’d estimate he would be in the 100 – 150k category, the Mrs doesn’t work and he carries a 500k mortgage. An excellent guy BTW.

    He’s voting for the Greens. For the sake of his young family I tried but I couldn’t convince him otherwise, even after explaining at great length what my mortgage cost in the late 80s after all that you-know-what and how that came about.

    Still, there’ll be some cheap real estate going eventually if Labour / Greens get in this year, but I’m not sure they will at all, so he’ll be safe probably

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  15. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    @SPC

    1. Key’s promise not to increase the age or change super payment rates is paying off.

    So, with a few strokes of electronic ink you declare that older NZers don’t give a damn about anyone but themselves. You know the group – the people that lived in much smaller and cheaper homes, who worked all hours of the day, who went without great luxury when they were younger so that the family would be provided for and their children might have better prospects.

    That’s the group which you defame as being selfish and unconcerned about their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren.

    2. Older voters are the better off and on higher incomes and prefer a lower tax party in government.

    Wealth is not determined by age however I am sure the elderly of Manurewa, Otara, Papatoetoe, Waitangirua, Christchurch East and the like thank you for reclassifying them as 'better off' thanks to your personal ideology.

    3. Older voters are less concerned by unaffordable housing as they already own.

    Or perhaps those older voters, who have worked all their lives to pay off the family home, are a bit concerned that the CGT proposed by the Left will tax the inheritance they have worked all their lives to leave to their families. [PS - It was confirmed, after quite some evasion, in 2011 that the CGT would apply to an inherited property -> death duty by stealth.]

    4. Women are more concerned about the cost of raising families and supportive of policies to assist those doing so.

    A very useful reminder that parties on the centre-right not only have to be relevant to all voters [they most certainly are that], but also to be perceived as such.

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  16. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    Still, there’ll be some cheap real estate going eventually if Labour / Greens get in this year

    Yes. The Labour/Greens voters are slowly coming to realise that housing would only be cheaper under a Left govt because the one they are working to pay the mortgage off on would be worth less.

    Not only a simple reality, but one that Materia Turei confirmed was exactly the objective and morally right in the Greens’ mind. [That's singular - as in hive mind]

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  17. SPC (5,537 comments) says:

    bhudson, the Labour Party policy says

    1. if property was gifted before death CGT would apply
    2. on property inheritance after death of parents, no CGT would be liable on simple transfer of ownership. It could be held in a family trust unsold without attracting CGT.

    The matter of distinction is inheritance of rental property and inheritance of the family home. Are you sure Labour’s policy is for CGT on the inherited family home or just the inherited rental property (and then only when it is sold)?

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  18. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    @SPC,

    Phil Goff evaded for as long as he could and then admitted that, at the time the estate was dealt with, that prior ‘family home’ would not be a ‘family home’ for the beneficiaries of the estate – i.e. it would be classed as an investment property and subject to CGT

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  19. SPC (5,537 comments) says:

    Yes but.

    The Labour policy release said the provisions at death (on-line below) would be the same as in Oz.

    https://www.labour.org.nz/sites/default/files/CGTWebdoct%20July%202011.pdf

    The following explains the Oz policy.

    “The most significant exemption is the family home. Rollover provisions apply to some disposals, one of the most significant is transfers to beneficiaries on death, so that the CGT is not a quasi death duty.

    On death, CGT assets transferred to beneficiaries (either directly or first to an executor) are not treated as disposed of by the deceased, but instead the beneficiaries are taken to have acquired them at the deceased’s date of death and with cost base and reduced cost base as at that date.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_Australia

    Given as there is no automatic CGT on the estate, as inheritance is not a disposal to the heirs, and in Oz the CGT is NOT quasi death duty or estate tax. Either Goff’s clarification (can you link?) was a change in policy from the release or his clarification was based on misinformation from someone who wanted a different policy and finessed him on this.

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  20. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    @SPC,

    How extraordinarily generous – the CGT will apply, but only on any gain they make between death and disposal. So either get rid of it immediately or the asset your parents worked all their lives to leave to you will be taxed.

    I don’t think that is what their parents had in mind all those years.

    Either Goff’s clarification (can you link?) was a change in policy from the release or his clarification was based on misinformation from someone who wanted a different policy and finessed him on this.

    The major point at the time was that there was no detail in the policy – it was all to be defined after Goff swept them to victory.

    It is a good thing that they have since provided some clariification, however I suspect they have not provided a forecast on how this will affect the CGT revenue $ they spouted in 2011 before they had decided on the detail.

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  21. bhudson (4,736 comments) says:

    Oh, that makes for interesting reading. Thanks for the link.

    1. Starter for 10 – the Labour CGT is simply not in any way shape or form a means to direct investment to so-called ‘productive’ sectors as it will clearly tax gains in those areas at the same rate.

    2. Your reference to the inherited property being transferred into a Trust is very relevant – the Labour CGT policy is not the Aus policy – they state very clearly that Trusts will not be able to be used to shield property from CGT

    3. The actual words on inherited property are:

    Capital gains on inheritance passed on after death will be rolled over to the heir, and not pay
    able until the asset is realised. This follows the Australian example. The Expert Panel will be asked to
    give advice in this area

    All that says with 100% clarity is that the value of the property will transfer as of V-day (which could, and for most NZers likely will be) years before the property is inherited.

    In the absence of clear wording to the contrary (and it most certainly is absent) it can be interpreted that the beneficiaries would be subject to CGT back to the value on V-day (not on death), but [bow down and lick our boots for our generosity] such gain will not be payable until the property is actually disposed of.

    You have chosen to interpret their reference to Australia as meaning that the CGT value of the property would not be set until the time of death. However the first clause very clearly links the value back to V-day (the implementation of CGT by legislation) and it is therefore likely that the Australian link actually refers to the time of the tax being levied, not the date it is calculated from.

    As ever during 2011 that last sentence says it all – “we have absolutely no clue, so just trust us now and we’ll get some people to tell us what to do after you have voted for us.”

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  22. GraemeB (10 comments) says:

    I expected more women to be onside with Key, after all he is likeable charming guy. Compare that to the opposition, Cuntlif comes across as a smarmy weasel with a face only a mother could love.

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  23. Shazzadude (526 comments) says:

    Fairfax is a joke of a poll, and has found itself to be woefully out from the actual result at the last few elections (it had National on 54% in election week 2011 for e.g. Compared to the 47% they actually got).

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  24. Paulus (2,594 comments) says:

    Which party will make a special road from Auckland Airport to Coatsville to a rented Mansion – or build a big airstrip large enough to take a good size aircraft from Wellington.
    I will vote for them.

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  25. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (869 comments) says:

    This is a rogue poll….Last Roy Morgan and TV3 polls are pointing to Labour-Green-NZ First-Mana government. I am hoping the TV1 poll due out any time will also show the same….

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  26. Ben Dover (526 comments) says:

    http://youtu.be/SQDip9V49U0

    I’d just like to say thank you for this

    This has to be the best thing I found on this site

    Thank you again

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