I’ve tweaked the table to use the iPredict seat predictions, as assumptions. This means:
- If Labour got only 23%, their only List MP would be Deputy Leader David Parker
- At 23%, only 34% of the caucus would be female
- They need 26% to retain Andrew Little
- They need 28% to get Kelvin Davis in. If they are polling below that, then Labour can’t sacrifice him to help Kim DotCom’s party get into Parliament
- They need 29% to get any Asian MPs
- They need 30% to get even a single new List MP
- They need 34% to make their gender target of 45% female
They also have challenges in terms of having a caucus that can excite people to vote for it. The highest ranked new candidate is a policy analyst for the Ministry of Women’s Affairs. I’m sure she is a very capable and talented person for her to have been ranked so high, but Chris Trotter would point out that having your highest ranked new candidate being a policy analyst, won’t really appeal to Waitakere Man.
I touched yesterday that out of a projected caucus of 34 (on average of all public polls), they would have eight Maori MPs, five Pasifika MPs and no Asian MPs. Dong Liu will want his donations back 🙂
Also of interest was that five Labour MPs pulled out of list ranking, including Trevor Mallard. Trevor said that he wanted to help Kelvin Davis out, but that is a nonsense statement. Unless Trevor loses Hutt South to Chris Bishop, then whether or not Mallard is on the Labour List will have no impact on whether Kelvin Davis gets in. So either Trevor thinks he may lose to Bishop, or he withdrew from the list for a different reason to what he stated.