You can see that the prices for National stabalised just above 70c in April and May after earlier peaking at around 76c in mid-March. I don’t believe that any single event has caused the prices to move. It’s more a case of running out the clock; Labour needs some sort of game-changer, and there is less and less time left before the election for them to find one.
So why has Labour gone from favoured to win, to barely having a 20% chance? I think there are multiple factors.
- They’ve abandoned the centre ground, and almost every policy they announce is to the left of the Clark Government
- Cunliffe’s multiple gaffes have accumulated to give him a very negative brand, and the public don’t want him to become Prime Minister
- A centre-left coalition looks way way more unstable than a centre-right coalition, especially as there is so much tension within Labour itself, let alone before you try and have the Greens and Winston in the same room
- New Zealanders hate the though of Kim Dotcom determining the next government. Labour’s refusal to rule him and his party out has sent many left voters over to National as they’d rather have National in, than have a convicted criminal purchase himself a change of government
- Their political competence is woeful
So like KPG, I don’t think it is any one factor. A combination of all of the above is responsible. Some of them they can fix, but some they can’t. I think No 4 is especially powerful, and their refusal to rule Dotcom’s pet party out will be a millstone around their neck.