What a difference a year makes

July 2nd, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

labipredict

This graph shows the price/probability at of there being a Prime Minister after the 2014 election.

As one can see Labour’s chances were above or around 50% during 2012. In 2013 they dropped slightly but remained between 40% and 50%. Then Labour changed leaders and their chances increased to 60%. But look at what has happened in the last nine months. It has been a huge collapse, and this month they dropped below 20% probability for the first time.

 

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45 Responses to “What a difference a year makes”

  1. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    DPF: You have just made our day, long may these results remain, being good for investment and business confidence.

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  2. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    Well, of course the real story is that the left have infiltrated the National Party, and it is now the de-facto Labour Party and John Key is its leader.

    In short, the left are till winning the political battle in this country by a country mile. John Key has completely and utterly surrendered to cultural Marxism.

    Even blogs that had a least a semblance of being right wing are now in their attempts to support Key, becoming progressive in their approach.

    Sad to see the National Party become a virtual non event as far as the political direction of NZ is concerned.

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  3. Fisiani (981 comments) says:

    You can make money on ipredict by shorting Cunliffe. Let me explain. You sell a share that you do not own. It costs you {100-20} ie 80 c . When he loses your 80c is now worth $1. Spend $80 and it turns into $100. Take advantage of the leftwing mugs who BUY your shares.

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  4. wreck1080 (3,787 comments) says:

    Pretty.

    I want to see major political events relating to labour superimposed over the top of this.

    Kind of like they do with share price and other economic graphs.

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  5. Judith (8,243 comments) says:

    @ Fisiani (911 comments) says:
    July 2nd, 2014 at 9:06 am

    Great advice – and very timely. It’s probably the only way anyone normal will make any money when John Key gets another term.

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  6. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    What were the ipredictions on John Banks being found guilty of electoral fraud? Anyone make a lot of money on that one? Penny Bright

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  7. Colville (2,152 comments) says:

    DPF.

    Is it possible to superimpose the different Labour leaders over that graph?

    It would really show the fantastic effect Cun*liffe has had on their chances!

    60% to 17% in 9 months? LOL

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  8. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    Any ipredictions on my beating John Key in Helensville? You must admit there’s a common sense logic in Helensville folk not wasting their electoral vote on Jphn Key if he’s going to be Number One on the National Party list and get in anyway? How much time does PM John Key spend in Helensville looking after the interests of the 99%? Penny Bright

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  9. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    PB: Don’t be too smug, I can assure you Banks will have the last laugh . . . you filthy lefties have a lot to come!

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  10. Colville (2,152 comments) says:

    I do hope someone from both the ACT and National parties sent Penny a thankyou card for clearing Banks out and allowing ACT the chance to reinvent itself.
    I hope it works.
    I am sure Labour would have rather seen Banks stay put as ACT sole MP quite quickly killing the Party.

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  11. Harriet (4,614 comments) says:

    “…..Any ipredictions on my beating John Key in Helensville? You must admit there’s a common sense logic in Helensville folk not wasting their electoral vote on Jphn Key if he’s going to be Number One on the National Party list and get in anyway?…….”

    LOL Penny…..people will even stoop so low as to waste their vote on a big time loser like Key………..just to keep you out.

    But I’ll give you points for trying. :cool:

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  12. Elaycee (4,322 comments) says:

    Any ipredictions on my beating John Key in Helensville

    I wouldn’t want you to put your house on it, Penny.

    Oh, wait…. :D

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  13. srylands (390 comments) says:

    I sold my PM.National stocks at 60 cents because I thought they had peaked :-( I seriously never thought they would hit 80.

    If you want to cause a stir at The Standard (it is like making a noise on the Walking Dead and running from the zombies) mention ipredict’s election forecasts. Lynn Prentice told me it was a few wealthy National supporters manipulating the price. The other stock response is that “only National supporters can afford to spend on ipredict.”

    My favourite response though was from a contributor who said ipredict was out of control and should be regulated.

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  14. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    Question for the die hard National supporters. Who was the potential coalition partner who said the following a few days ago?

    “Some people I talk to are surprised to learn that the RMA was passed by a National government. They shouldn’t be. For although the National Party in opposition claims to believe in personal responsibility, individual choice and fiscal discipline, in government they turn into the Labour Party.

    If you did not know the election results, but could see only the policies pursued over the last 15 years, you would think that Helen Clark’s Labour Party was still in power.

    Labour increased government spending dramatically. This National government has sustained it, increasing government debt to 35% of GDP in the process.

    Labour employed tens of thousands of new bureaucrats. National has kept them in their jobs, beavering away, paid from our taxes to impose even more burdens on us.

    Labour made tens of thousands of middle-class families welfare beneficiaries with their Working for Families money-go-round. These families are still being taxed to fund their conversion into state supplicants.

    Labour bribed university students with interest free loans. National has kept slipping the envelopes under the table, despite the cost of the programme exploding to more than $500 million a year.

    Bill English has actually boasted that under National high-earners pay a greater share of total taxation than they did under Labour.”

    Cunliffe can’t come up with any suitable policies because John Key has stolen them all.

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  15. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    Banks will have the last laugh? We shall see on 1 August at sentencing in the Auckland High Court:) errr … John Banks has been forced to resign from the House and National have been unable to pass some legislation because they now no longer have the numbers. http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com Next ‘shonky’ John Key? (Meant of course in a caring way ;) Penny Bright

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  16. Manolo (13,514 comments) says:

    Give and take a policy here or there, Labour and today’s National party are very much alike.

    National seems to have jettisoned its low-tax approach and continues to punish middle NZ with higher and higher taxes, e.g., ETS, excise, GST hike, etc. The problem is Key and the Nats seem happy with it.

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  17. RightNow (6,798 comments) says:

    Three more years girls.

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  18. mister nui (1,001 comments) says:

    Exactly Red.

    National has stolen the centre-left from Labour, and unfortunately, the common man is too stupid to see it. We need a strong party of the right that can elucidate what National has done and continues to do.

    The problem is, our trendy-lefty media will always denigrate and demonise any mildly right party, all the while promoting the wacky greens and their communist manifesto.

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  19. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    “National has stolen the centre-left from Labour,”

    Yes, and that is a pretty abject way to fight a political battle. The founders of the National Party (like Sid Holland) would be spinning in their graves to see their party become just a hollowed out shell of what it once was. With no policies left to fight for.

    Even the Young Nats are being stacked with far left members who are virtually indistinguishable from their Labour Party counterparts. They are attempting to transform a party that was founded on conservative principles into a progressive party.

    This is being done under the cover of “modernisation”, but it isn’t that. Its a take over by the left, and a complete and utter surrender to the left’s cultural Marxist strategies.

    Ask yourself, why are the left wing media so supportive of National? I’ll tell you the answer. Because they have bent the party to their will. Because they have made it what they want it to be. It doesn’t matter to them that the Labour Party is in disarray, because it is worth it to see National move so far left.

    Don’t be confused about what this is. We have had a left wing coup of the National Party and the Young Nats, and the whole country is now also a victim of that coup.

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  20. Shazzadude (516 comments) says:

    I’ll start buying Labour if it gets down to 15 cents I think. Under MMP they’re down but not out.

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  21. Ross12 (1,235 comments) says:

    Hi Penny

    I hope you going to be consistent and push for prosecution of Clare Curran for releasing the Malaysian diplomats name yesterday (ie breaching a Court order) BEFORE the judge lifted name suppression — just an “honest mistake” they said , just like John Banks.

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  22. mikenmild (11,234 comments) says:

    ‘The founders of the National Party (like Sid Holland) would be spinning in their graves’
    You know Sid Holland was the first National PM
    to set the trend of cementing Labour’s policies in place, don’t you?

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  23. prosper (138 comments) says:

    Given Cunnliffe,s ambition I wonder if he has considered going into partnership with National in exchange for the deputy prime ministership as the number one position for him is probably unobtainable.

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  24. Harriet (4,614 comments) says:

    “…..The problem is, our trendy-lefty media will always denigrate and demonise any mildly right party,…”

    In the MSM, KB, Whale ect……all the blogs/posts are about the left and right of Labour and the greens ect………..the topic is never ever about the right and left INSIDE National.

    And the HATED TORIES have 51% of the vote – under MMP?

    It’s confirmation that Cunliffe, Labour, the MSM and National are all comfortable with National’s policy direction. :cool:

    ……..51%…..on the crest of a wave with no broad direction if National are going left or right…..just the repeated announcement from National PR and the MSM of their ‘position’…………”We’re center right.”

    I think Mr Craig will make some ‘direction’ statements about National’s policies themselves just out from the election – and force National’s hand to defend them.

    After all, the only thing Sarah Palin ever did was to remind the Republican voting base of who they actually were….

    ….she simply resold them their own policies & values that the Rinos denied still existed in the party base.

    National’s voters will peel away. :cool:

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  25. Ross12 (1,235 comments) says:

    ipredict is just a “Gameboy” plaything for the beltway crowd.

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  26. thedavincimode (6,582 comments) says:

    Looks like cunners was already selling short before he started shafting the fish man. He’s set to make a fortune by the look of that graph.

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  27. ross411 (285 comments) says:

    Ross12 (1,116 comments) says:
    July 2nd, 2014 at 10:05 am
    Hi Penny

    I hope you going to be consistent and push for prosecution of Clare Curran for releasing the Malaysian diplomats name yesterday (ie breaching a Court order) BEFORE the judge lifted name suppression — just an “honest mistake” they said , just like John Banks.

    Consistency is the privilege of the sane and well balanced, unfortunately. Penny’s childish posts are the whimsy of someone who is neither.

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  28. ShawnLH (4,332 comments) says:

    I really think they should have stuck with Shearer. Not that I want them to do well of course! But he likely would have made a better fist of it, and possibly done well in the debates. Dumping him for the clown they now have was a very foolish move.

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  29. ShawnLH (4,332 comments) says:

    “Penny’s childish posts are the whimsy of someone who is neither.”

    I don’t know. Childish whimsy has it’s own virtue. Penny strikes me more as the wicked witch of the West, cackling insanely and brewing poisonous spells and hexes.

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  30. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    Well if Penny is a witch she’s sure succeeded in enchanting a few of the commenters here, who apparently can’t wait to breathlessly comment on anything she says. No matter how idiotic.

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  31. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    Oh come on ‘Reddie’ – point a stick at ONE thing that I’ve said which is ‘idiotic’ :)

    Kind regards

    Penny Bright

    (Future MP for Helensville? ;)

    http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

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  32. Redbaiter (7,862 comments) says:

    If you’re going to knock off John Key Penny you should be out door knocking not pissing about here.

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  33. ShawnLH (4,332 comments) says:

    It’s a blog reddie. People post here, and respond to Penny, because it’s entertaining.

    Nothing anyone posts here is going to change the world or have any great influence. It’s just a bit of fun.

    (DPF aside of course, he, unlike yourself, actually does have influence)

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  34. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    Ross – here’s the thing …

    I describe myself as a ‘Public Watchdog’ and think it’s fair to say that I have a track record which proves that.

    But I’m self-funded, so I choose my priorities, and think I’m effective because I don’t spread myself too thin, and focus on where I can spend my limited time and even more limited resources most productively.

    Perhaps you could get off your own bottom, Ross, and if you think that Clare Curran has committed an offence YOU make a complaint to the Police, or whatever law enforcement agency is most appropriate?

    TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY – sort of thing?

    Come on Ross – have a go YOURSELF – I’ve found that you can ‘learn by doing’ ……

    Kind regards,

    Penny Bright

    http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

    (Future MP for Helensville ? ;)

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  35. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    Thank you for your advice Reddie – I’ve never actually done ‘door-knocking’ – prefer the ‘Mohammed go to the mountain’ approach.

    FYI – I didn’t knock on a single door in the 2013 Auckland Mayoral campaign, but still polled 4th with 11,723 votes.

    No political party ‘team’, no leaflets, about 25 corflute signs, no paid advertising, and was effectively censored by some mainstream media (particularly Radio NZ), spent bugger all – so how did I arguably do so well?

    (I’m giving you some ‘trade secrets’ here – so you might want to pay attention possums! :)

    How about 15 years experience in local government politics as an effective community activist, (thus a PROVEN track record) – plus clear, simple policies for a legislative framework against ‘white collar crime, corruption and corporate welfare’?

    Just ONE A4 page – no spin – no blather – just clear commonsense policies which WOULD make a real difference to help build an ‘open, transparent and democratically-accountable’ New Zealand, at both central and local government level and within our judiciary.

    Go on!

    Read it – I DARE you! :)

    http://www.pennybright4mayor.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ANTI-CORRUPTION-WHITE-COLLAR-CRIME-CORPORATE-WELFARE-ACTION-PLAN-Ak-Mayoral-campaign-19-July-2013-2.pdf

    See what PM John Key is up against?

    I sort of feel sorry for him already ….

    Ok – not really – it’s going to be FUN!

    Any ipredict punts on whether or not the Wall St poodle PM John Key will front the Public Watchdog PM (Penelope Mary) Bright on national TV?

    ipredict I will kick his butt – politically of course :)

    Seen this?

    I think it’s fair to say I kicked John Key’s butt here – what do YOU think Kiwibloggers?

    My submission on the GCSB Bill.

    John Key tried to escape before I gave my submission, and couldn’t get away quick enough after I finished my submission – so I have fronted him before:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQgLJixhB4A

    Kind regards,

    Penny Bright

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  36. stigie (971 comments) says:

    Yep, you really kicked John Keys butt Penny, you really did !~ /sarc

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  37. ShawnLH (4,332 comments) says:

    “I think it’s fair to say I kicked John Key’s butt here – what do YOU think Kiwibloggers?”

    Your seriously delusional.

    JK could care less about you Penny. Your no threat to him, your not even relevant to him.

    Your delusions of grandeur and your fantasies about your standing in NZ indicate that your really not well in the head dept.

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  38. Richard Hurst (781 comments) says:

    It must be election year- Kiwiblog has developed a Troll infestation, especially on any thread to do with the election….

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  39. Chuck Bird (4,741 comments) says:

    “I’ll start buying Labour if it gets down to 15 cents I think. Under MMP they’re down but not out.”

    Not long to wait. They are on 18 cents now.

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  40. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    errr…. I helped get rid of John Banks ‘Sheepish Shawn’.

    FACT.

    Means that in the House the vote is 60 – 60 to pass legislation which the Maori Party won’t support.

    Which means that politically, for anyone who has more than 2 brain cells to rub together, this was quite an historic and significant ‘milestone’ decision.

    Sorry that the FACTS and EVIDENCE are apparently so disturbing for you.

    Kind regards,

    Penny Bright

    (Future MP for Helensville ? ;)

    http://www.dodgyjohnHASgone.com

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  41. RRM (9,606 comments) says:

    :lol: LOL – 503 service temporarily unavailable. You may be able to get away without paying your rates, but clearly web hosting is not such a charitable business.

    You should definitely go for MP of Helensville Penny. You are certainly tedious enough to be an MP.

    And the pay rise would surely enable you to pay your rates arrears at long last…?

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  42. publicwatchdog (2,227 comments) says:

    Going to vote for me RRM? Goodness me – whatever next! ;) Penny Bright PS: You won’t be the only one who makes this common sense decision – mark my words ….

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  43. Scott1 (479 comments) says:

    I guess ipredict is just unreliable about a year out or so there probably isn’t enough money in the market because labour was never really above 50% that is just ridiculous.
    Or maybe I just should have bet my house back in 2013…

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  44. OneTrack (2,759 comments) says:

    That’s fine, but what’s IPredict saying are the chances of a Green PM?

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  45. srylands (390 comments) says:

    PM.National is now up to 83.2%

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=PM.2014.NATIONAL

    It may hit 90% at this rate.

    Also the Australian bookmakers have National win at $1.12 and Labour at $6.00

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